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AGQ

Silver Market Once in a Lifetime Breakout: 120/140 USD PT📌 Base case unchanged: I’m still targeting $125–$150 within 12–24 months. The next leg of the bull run should accelerate after the all-time-high (~$49–$50) breaks and sticks. Spot is circling the mid-$40s (recent highs ~$46–$47), so the setup is in place. 💎✨ 🎯 Bottom line Silver’s structural deficit + gold leadership + policy-driven cost inflation meet a fresh technical regime. The ATH break is the ignition; $65–$75 is the first destination, and the $125–$150 12–24M target stays live if real yields drift down and PV/electronics demand stays elevated despite thrifting. Manage the whipsaws; respect $38 as the cycle guardrail. BUY/HOLD bias remains warranted. 🚀💎🔥 ________________________________________ 📊 Technical Outlook (2-week candles) • Structure: Multi-year Cup & Handle from 2011 → 2020 base → 2024/25 handle. The $40 neckline break is done; a weekly/monthly close > $49.50 flips the market into price discovery. • Levels that matter: — Resistance: $49–$50 (ATH), then $65–$75 (measured move / vacuum), interim supply near $57–$60. — Support: $44.5–$45 (breakout retest), $41–$42 (former cap), deeper $38 and $34 (trend break if lost). • Momentum breadth: Higher highs on price with constructive consolidation while gold prints records → classic GSR mean-reversion tailwind. 📈⚡ ________________________________________ 🧭 12–24 Month Path Outlook Base (55%) – Break & run: Close above $50 triggers trend systems and discretionary chase → extension to $65–$75 by mid-’26, stair-step into $100–$125 by late ’26/early ’27; overshoot to $150 on macro squeeze. 🚀 Alt up (15%) – Blow-off: Parabolic sprint to $85–$100 immediately post-break, sharp retrace to high-$60s, then grind to $125–$150. Pullback (25%) – Fakeout & reload: Failure at $49–$50, mean reversion to $41–$42 or even $38, rebuild positioning; timeline slips ~1–2 quarters. Bear tail (5%) – Macro shock: USD spike + real-yield jump + PV air-pocket; lose $34 → cycle delay (target deferred, not canceled). ⚠️ ________________________________________ 🚦 Catalyst Scorecard — Visible & Hidden Drivers (0–10) 1. Fed path & real yields — 9.0/10 (Bullish) The Fed cut 25 bps on Sept 17 (now 4.00–4.25%) and signaled scope for more easing this year; several officials reinforced that bias. Lower real yields are the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding metals. 🏦 2. U.S. Dollar trend — 6.0/10 (Net-Bullish for silver) DXY has been firm the last two weeks, a minor headwind; but with the Fed easing bias, dollar upswings look tactical, not structural. Any USD rollover clears the runway. 💵 3. Gold leadership & GSR mean-reversion — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Gold at/near record highs ~$3.75–$3.80k keeps silver in tow. GSR ~80–84 is elevated vs. bull-market medians → skew favors silver outperformance on a gold grind. 🪙⚖️ 4. Structural deficit — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Fourth straight sizable deficit; ~678 Moz cumulative drawdown since 2021. 2025 still projected to run a ~115–120 Moz deficit despite softer bar/coin demand. 📉📦 5. Industrial demand (PV/Electronics) — 7.5/10 (Bullish with nuance) PV/electrical demand at record highs; PV up again in 2024 (+3% y/y) and installations broadened across 38 “>1GW” countries. Offsetting force: silver thrifting (0BB, copper plating) → another 10–12% loading cut likely in 2025. Net: total ounces still robust as capacity growth outpaces thrifting… for now. ☀️🔋 6. ETP/ETF flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) Global silver ETPs flipped to net inflows in 2024 (+62 Moz) and kept adding into 2025. SLV shows ~15,362 tonnes in trust as of Sept 26—a sizable base of “sticky” investment metal. 📊📈 7. LBMA & COMEX stocks / liquidity premia — 7.0/10 (Bullish) LBMA silver in London: 24,646 t (Aug) — up m/m but well below pre-2020 peaks; COMEX registered ~196 Moz. Tight-ish float + delivery frictions can widen location premia during spikes. 🏭📦 8. Tariff & logistics regime — 7.0/10 (Bullish via inflation/frictions) U.S. 50% copper tariff (Aug 1) lifts domestic copper premia and can indirectly affect by-product silver flows and refining economics. Recent gold bar tariff confusion also showed how policy can snarl bullion logistics; LBMA welcomed clarifications, and noted silver discussions continue—headline risk persists. 🚢⚙️ 9. Base-metal supply shocks (by-product linkage) — 6.5/10 (Bullish) Grasberg disruptions and Peru protest-related shutdowns point to emerging fragility in copper output; since much silver comes as a by-product, copper hiccups can tighten silver supply at the margin. ⛏️🌍 10. Mexico policy/permitting — 6.0/10 (Bullish later, volatile now) World’s top silver producer remains mired in regulatory overhang; exploration still depressed post-2023 reforms. Any genuine permitting thaw would be years from ounces—near-term effect is restraint. 🇲🇽📜 11. India retail/investment demand — 6.5/10 (Bullish) Silver hitting record rupee highs; local ETFs up ~50%+ YTD; retail investment +7% y/y in H1’25. Seasonal tailwinds into festivals. 🎉🇮🇳 12. China macro & manufacturing — 5.5/10 (Mixed) Electronics appetite is steady, PV leadership intact; property stress caps jewelry, but investment demand remains opportunistic. Net: supportive on dips, headline-sensitive. 🏗️🇨🇳 13. Systematic/CTA & options positioning — 6.0/10 (Volatility amplifier) Trend models chased the $40 break; dealer gamma turns negative above $45–$47 at times, inviting intraday whipsaws. 🎯📉📈 14. Geopolitics (Ukraine/Mideast/Taiwan) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Safe-haven jolts remain episodic; they matter more after the ATH triggers chase behavior. 🌍🔥 ________________________________________ 🧨 Hidden (under-traded) catalysts • GSR compression trade: Once $50 breaks, programmatic rebalancing from gold to silver can accelerate relative gains. (GSR in the 60s pulls silver deeper into triple digits fast.) ⚖️💥 • By-product elasticity: Copper policy & outages (tariffs, mine incidents) can reduce silver by-product feed even as PV demand hums—this is not fully priced. 🔧⛏️ • Vault/warehouse microstructure: LBMA/COMEX stock changes vs. delivery notices can suddenly widen time/location spreads → sparks short-term basis fireworks that lift spot. 📦⏳ ________________________________________ 🛠️ Positioning & Execution • Core: BUY/HOLD core metal exposure; add on $44–$45 retests; reload heavier on $41–$42. • Breakout tactics: On a weekly close > $50, ride call spreads (e.g., $60/$90 9–15M out on SI or SLV) or risk-reversals (sell $35 puts to fund $80–$100 calls). • Risk controls: Invalidate momentum if weekly close < $38; cut leverage. ________________________________________ 🧩 Fundamental NOTES • Spot context: XAG/USD ~$46, 52-week range ~$28–$46.7. ATH ~$49–$50 (1980/2011). • Deficit math: Metals Focus/Silver Institute show fourth straight deficit; 2025 deficit ~117 Moz amid record industrial demand and only modest supply growth. • Supply: 2024 mined = 819.7 Moz; 2025e ≈ 835.0 Moz (+1.9% y/y). Primary mine share keeps slipping; AISC fell in 2024 (by-product credits). • PV nuance: Silver loadings ↓ ~10–12% in 2025e, but global PV installations broadened; total silver ounces into PV remain lofty even as intensity falls. • Vaults/ETFs: LBMA London holdings 24,646 t (Aug). SLV metal in trust 15,361.84 t (Sep 26). COMEX registered ~196 Moz. • Macro winds: Fed cut and may cut more in 2025 → lower real yields + easier USD path. • Policy kicker: U.S. copper tariffs live; gold bar tariffs clarified after August confusion; silver remains under policy watch—any mis-classification can jolt premia. ________________________________________
TVC:SILVERLong
by ProjectSyndicate
59
AGQ projects to $405 SILVER 2X ETFYet to breakout from this W pattern. What Is the W Pattern? The W Pattern is a bullish harmonic pattern found on most stock charts at some point in time. Think of the letter “W” and imagine what this pattern might look like. It is characteristic of a bounce and retest of a key support area, commonly referred to as a double-bottom formation. When this pattern forms on a chart, it usually indicates a trend reversal. Between the two bottoms, there is a level of resistance about halfway between the two tops. As a result, this is key, as it indicates a retest of the bottom support before rising higher into the newly formed uptrend. Now you see it. What do you think of this chart pattern and price targets?
AMEX:AGQLong
by BallaJi
Silver Massive C&H Bull Market 400%+ gains Lifetime opportunity🏆 Silver Market Update (April 13th, 2025) 📊 Technical Outlook Update ▪️Long-term outlook 2weeks/candle ▪️Massive C&H formation in progress ▪️40 USD breakout pending now ▪️PT BULLS 400%+ gains BUY/HOLD ▪️Price Target BULLS 125/150 USD ▪️Bull market still pending ▪️BUY/HOLD now or miss out on gains 📢 Silver Market Update – April 2025 📈Silver is widely used in electronics due to its exceptional electrical and thermal conductivity, making it ideal for various applications, including printed circuit boards, connectors, and contact surfaces. 🚀 It is also employed in devices like touch screens, batteries, and solar panels. Silver's high conductivity, solderability, and resistance to corrosion and oxidation contribute to its popularity in the electronics industry.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
42
Junior Miners will take some time off soon I see a repeat of March 2020 happening but with birdflu (check out my silver miners AMEX:SILJ thread where the fractal looks better). Within 5 months, miners had a 42% gain, but within that time period there were 2 huge drops and 3 huge gains: 1. $46-$20 (56% loss) in 2 weeks (June-July) 2. $20-$40 (100% gain) in 4 weeks (July-August) 3. $40-$50 (25% gain) in 4 weeks (August-September) 4. $50-$42 (15% loss) in 4 weeks (September-October) 5. $42-$65 (55% gain) in 6 weeks (October-Mid November) We'll want to target events 1, 2 and 5. OTM puts and calls on AMEX:NUGT , AMEX:JNUG and AMEX:AGQ will be the way to go on this assuming some exogenous event doesn't take down our markets (hack, EMP etc.), and IV is affordable. 1 will be moderately expensive because of hitting the top (unless it grinds slowly sideways dragging IV down with it). 2 could be pretty expensive. 5 should be highly affordable after a slow walk up and down for 2 months. I will also be keeping a close eye on several junior miners like NYSE:EXK and one pharmaceutical company NASDAQ:GILD (check those threads also)
AMEX:GDXJShort
by EmptyEternity
2XBEAR JUNIOR MINERS LOOKING GOOD FROM HERE!It's time for precious metals to take a cooler. I noticed AMEX:JDST 's options for $5 is off the chart compared to other months. I bought calls for .20 for $5 strike price in September. I anticipating these going to 2.00 by then which is 1000% return. I also think AMEX:DUST is worthy of buying at these levels too - except they don't have miners, but I see a 500% return for this stock by the fall. I will also link to some supportive ideas following this post.
AMEX:JDSTLong
by EmptyEternity
Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments) I see a double top in gold. TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction. The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's. I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
AMEX:GLDShort
by EmptyEternity
Silver will fall 10% - AGQ will fall 20% for retracementA 70% chance that silver provides a retracement next week, as the attacks on Israel by Iran are not coming out - and the West is getting desperate (I smell a false flag if Iran doesn't bite). Asia (ChIndia - China & India) are hodling silver and gold and will provide the impetus for the forward price of precious metals. TTM squeezes normally see price bounce off the opposite end as a fakeout before its continuation. I see that on multiple smaller TF's and a retracement to the middle BB on higher TF's. I see a huge boost of silver miners coming up shortly, but for now I see a consolidation happening. Options for AMEX:AGQ was .05 for $36 June, so I see this going up to $1 or 20x if all goes as planned. Then time to reload for metals blasting off!
AMEX:AGQShort
by EmptyEternity
9
Silver looks like it could take another 10% haircut before 🚀"That's a HUUUUGE wick" - Deuce Bigalow Not uncommon for PA to come back down to touch the 20ema - which intersects a big trendline AND illustrates a backtest to the broken downward trendline. I anticipate this move happening fast, and could be combined with a minor market drop overall. Exo-political situation that's escalating is the USDJPY - and the BOJ is taking it's good ole time with correcting its currency. When they dump treasuries I anticipate a vertical trajectory of precious metals AND miners. When that happens (not IF) that will over-ride any PA - so it might be wise to start building longer positions i.e. OTM call options slated for July expiration ( AMEX:AGQ ). Since all Central Banks are reactionary in nature, the FED will wait till something breaks in the bond/treasury market but that can't happen until the BOJ dumps treasuries. And that can't happen until the dollar's ascent forces them to do this. So I see a higher dollar still, which will reflect the blunting of precious metals.
FXOPEN:XAGUSDShort
by EmptyEternity
EXK will run as long as silver moves higher LONGEXK is a junior miner. With fixed expenses in its mining operations for the most part, margins rise dramatically when silver is rising and the opposite is likewise applicable. This is the crux of using junior miners as a means to profit from trending in precious metals. As a penny stock EXK has hieghtened volatility as compared with Barrock Gold or the GLD ETF. there are other junior miners. EXK has added 40% to its market cap in two weeks. Until the momentum of spot silver fades, EXK will continue its momentum. I will add to my long position here and fortify the call option position as well.
NYSE:EXKLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
SPOT GOLD Zig Zag Long Average Up LONG or NOT ?SPOT GOLD XAUUSD is shown here on a 30 minute chart. This zig zag long trade is a bit more than a day in duration. It is meant for use in a forex trade with 10:1 leverage and then increased upon fluency after some amount of experience. Superimposed on the chart are support and resistance zones of the visible range and the RSI of the given chart time frame. Buy low Sell high is implemented. In forex the lot size for the first trade can be 0.02 and then subsequent buy and sell lot size of 0.01 the zig zagging allows for some compounding while underway and taking profit underway to assure a winning trade. The stop loss can be set and reset while underway by looking at at separate indicators. Beginners need less indicators not more too many and they get stuck into trading paralysis and are uncertain how to proceed and cannot act in a short time which is important trading intraday. This same strategy works on lower time frames such as 1-5 minutes .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AwesomeAvani
AGQ- A Silver on steroids ETF LONGAGQ a leveraged ETF of silver and its futures, spent mid-March to mid-April on a great uptrend from which it pivoted down in a 50% Fib. retracement which took two months to complete. After a bit of consolidation and sideways channeling, it has finally launched into bullish continuation as shown on the daily chart. The Lorentzian AI machine learning indicator printed a buy signal today as it reacted to a green engulfing candle crossing the mean VWAP anchored from the pivot low of mid-March. This indicator has extreme accuracy in its signals as demonstrated on its tables. On the MTF RSI indicator, the low TF RSI has been riding above the higher and crossed the 50 level one week ago. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. Overall AGQ is ready for a swing long trade which I will take. I will zoom into a 30-60 minute time frame and look for a pivot low from which to enter. My target is the line showing two standard deviations above the anchored mean VWAP presently about 36.3 representing at least 20% potential upside and profit. The stop loss will be narrow with the price presently at the mean VWAP and POC line of the visible range volume profile I will set it at 29.85. ( The risk to reward is approximately 1:40 ) DYODD !
AMEX:AGQLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
JNUG - Leveraged Junior Miner ETF Swing LongOn the 4H chart, I show my analysis that JNUG is ready for an uptrend using the MACD / RSI for confirmation. A head and shoulder pattern is followed by a downtrend which ends in a double bottom for a reversal. I see the potential for a significant gain of the ETF and its call options over about six months. See also my idea on XAUUSD / Spot Gold for a more elaborate analysis and discussion. Globally, the 49ers are back again and I think it is time to enter this market.
AMEX:JNUG
by AwesomeAvani
AGQ- Time to push higherPlease check my previous ideas on AGQ, why I like to invest in it and the potential there is. AGQ is a 2x leveraged Silver ETF. Instead of utilizing swaps like most geared funds, AGQ invests in silver futures and forward contracts—this also means the fund is structured as a commodities pool, so it will distribute a K-1 form. Since I expect silver to go higher, holding some AGQ shares is another way to invest /speculate on the price of silver rising. the FXPROFESSOR
AMEX:AGQLong
by FX_Professor
3
AGQ - Lose a thousand or make a million🍒💰My favorite ETF to buy. Why buy Gold at almost record all time highs? Why trade Silver futures with a high leverage that can bit me in the ass in a single day? I prefer to buy the ETF and trade it like a share✔️, thus no expiry on a CFD✔️, no huge leverage✔️, no expiry means i do the broker no favors✔️ For this trade alone I have an account on a broker just for this one, yes only this trade. I deposited an amount I can lose without crying and I do 2 things: I buy it and I compound the profits. If Silver goes to 50 again then this should go to 700s again like it did 10 years ago. If that happens, the broker will be in pain. My favorite people to hurt (financially) is the brokers.. as you all they can afford it. Risk to reward with a leverage of 5 and compounding is 300 to 1. I take this trade 20 times if I have to (this is actually attempt number 3😉)
AMEX:AGQLong
by FX_Professor
19