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EUR/USD - U.S Government Shutdown ? 📊 Setup: EUR/USD has successfully broken out of the descending channel on the H1 timeframe. Price is holding above the breakout level, supported by the Ichimoku cloud and a nearby demand zone. With potential U.S. government shutdown news weighing on the dollar, EUR/USD shows strong upside potential. 📈 Trade Plan: Buy Zone: 1.1710 – 1.1730 (support zone & breakout retest) 1st Resistance Target: 1.1837 2nd Resistance Target: 1.1891 Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above support zone and channel breakout. ✅ Support Factors: Clear Channel Breakout on H1 Confluence with Ichimoku bullish bias Fundamental support: Possible U.S. government shutdown → weaker USD outlook Strong demand zone cushioning downside #EURUSD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexSignals #FXTrading #Euro #USD #Breakout #TradingView ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading. 💬 Support the Analysis: If this setup adds value, don’t forget to Like 👍, Comment 💬, and Follow ✅ for more timely updates.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
50
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 2, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is holding in the 1.17000–1.18000 area amid a weaker U.S. dollar due to the government shutdown and a deterioration in private employment estimates. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the October meeting remains high, and the pause in the release of some U.S. macro data increases uncertainty and reduces the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Against this backdrop, demand shifts in favor of currencies with more resilient domestic demand and lower fiscal risks. On the European side, the focus is on the flash estimate of HICP inflation. An acceleration in services, alongside moderate dynamics in the energy component, supports expectations that the ECB will pause to assess the price trajectory rather than rushing into further easing. This narrows the rate differential with the U.S. in favor of the euro. An additional driver of the pair’s strengthening is the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and rising risk appetite in Asia and Europe. Taken together, these factors form a fundamental case for buying EURUSD, provided risk is controlled. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.17500, SL 1.17250, TP 1.18250
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/JPY - Range Bound Before Big MovePrice is currently consolidating between a clearly defined Support Zone and Resistance Zone after a strong bearish move. Support has been respected multiple times, indicating short-term buying interest. Resistance aligns with a previous supply zone, showing potential rejection or continuation bias. Two possible scenarios are unfolding: Bullish Breakout If price breaks above the resistance zone, it could target the Order Block (OB) above, which is a key supply area from the last strong bearish move. Break and retest of resistance would confirm bullish structure shift. Target area: ~199.07 Bearish Continuation A rejection from resistance could lead to another test of support. A break below the support zone and the Weak Low would confirm bearish continuation. Bearish target sits around 197.60 (lower liquidity grab zone). Key Notes: Watch for a Change of Character (ChoCH) for confirmation in either direction. Volume and momentum confirmation will strengthen breakout bias. Consider OB zone as a potential reversal or mitigation point.
by Hamza_Gold
1
EURUSD: Rally to the 1.1805 Zone from Support LineHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the price of EURUSD has been consolidating and building value within a large upward wedge. This pattern is defined by a series of higher lows, forming an ascending support line, which shows that buyers are consistently stepping in at higher prices. Currently, the price is in a corrective pullback phase. After testing the upper part of the wedge, it is now heading towards the ascending support line for what I see as a critical test of the bullish structure. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is built on the idea that this upward wedge pattern will hold. This pullback to the support line is a classic 'buy the dip' opportunity within the established trend, and a logical place for the correction to end. I'm looking for the price to complete its correction to the ascending support line. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would be the key signal that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure and are ready to initiate the next move higher. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful rebound would validate the long scenario and should lead to a rally that breaks the 1.1780 Resistance. The primary target is the 1.1805 Resistance Zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
5
XAUUSD Short: Targeting 3800 on a Corrective MoveHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been operating within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish trend. This structure has guided the price higher through a series of impulsive moves and pullbacks, with buyers maintaining the initiative throughout this phase. Currently, the auction is at a critical inflection point at the top of this channel. The price has rallied to directly test the channel's ascending supply line after a strong run-up. This is a key area where sellers are expected to emerge and challenge the prevailing bullish momentum. My scenario for the development of events is a short-term corrective move from these highs. I expect that sellers will defend the supply line and reject the price, initiating a downward rotation back towards the channel's support. A failure to break out higher would confirm a temporary correction is underway. The take-profit is therefore set at 3800, targeting the major demand zone. Manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by heniitrading
7
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 1, 2025 USDJPYThe summary of opinions from participants at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in September showed that board members discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future. This confirmed market expectations that the central bank would stick to its policy normalization course. In addition, growing geopolitical tensions and the US government shutdown may continue to provide some support for the Japanese yen (JPY) as a safe-haven currency, which in turn could be a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the BoJ's stance differs significantly from forecasts that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice this year. The latter does not help the US dollar (USD) attract significant buyers. Moreover, the divergence in the policy outlooks of the Bank of Japan and the Fed should favor the lower-yielding Japanese yen and help limit the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for strong follow-through buying before taking a position in anticipation of a significant strengthening. Trade recommendation: SELL 146.75, SL 147.95, TP 143.95
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups For Wed, (Oct 1)News & event map (for tomorrow, Wed Oct 1) • ADP National Employment Report – 8:15 ET. Official release time. • S&P Global PMI (final) – 9:45 ET. Scheduled on the first working day; tomorrow’s calendar lists 09:45. • ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid – 10:00 ET. ISM releases on the first business day at 10:00. • JOLTS: already published Tuesday; none expected Wednesday. • Shutdown watch: if funding lapses at midnight, the Labor Dept./BLS suspends operations and economic data are delayed (e.g., Friday jobs report). Expect the market to lean more on private data (ADP/ISM). Shutdown Overview – Trading Insights Historically, equity markets have exhibited mixed to mildly positive performance during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains between 0% and +0.3% in prior instances. The primary concern during these periods tends to be short-term volatility and potential delays in economic data, rather than sustained market downturns. Notably, the long-term trend suggests that markets typically recover and trend higher in the months following the resolution of a shutdown. Overnight projection (Asia→EU) The baseline expectation is for range-building between 6693 and 6725, with potential liquidity runs at the confluence edges. We often see price dips below the 6693–6695 zone rebound towards 6703 or 6713. Conversely, a strong acceptance above 6720–6725 can lead to a probe into the 6740–6750 range before the New York session. If we see a clean 30-minute close below 6693, that could open up the move to 6676 and potentially 6653. NY session game plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Trade around the 8:15 and 10:00 windows; let the first impulse settle, then execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 kill-zones. ES LONG Acceptance (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Only if 15m accepts above 6720–6725 (re-close & hold). Entry: 5m pullback hold → 1m HL trigger 6721–6726. SL: ≤6712.75 (beyond VWAP/IB-H) hard stop (±0.25–0.50). TP1: 6743.5 (PDH) — take 70%, set runner BE. TP2: 6750–6755 supply. TP3: 6763–6768 stretch if ISM beats and breadth expands. Invalidation: A 15m body back inside ≤6719 after entry. ES SHORT Rejection (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Fade first test of 6740–6750 if 15m shows rejection (wick + close back inside). Entry: 5m LH re-close below 6735–6738; 1m trigger. SL: ≥6756. TP1: 6720–6722. TP2: 6703–6705 (Y-POC). TP3: 6693–6695 (Y-VAL/ONL). Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6750.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
xauusd whats happening?🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – Strong Bullish Trend Near All-Time Highs 📊 Market Overview Current Price: ~3,858.55 Trend: Strong Bullish Technical Summary: Moving Averages → Strong Buy Indicators → Strong Buy Overall Signal → Strong Buy 🔑 Key Levels Support Zones: 3,854.88 → (Today’s Low) 3,840 – 3,845 → (Previous Support) 3,788 – 3,800 → (Major Zone) Resistance Levels: 3,861.41 → (Today’s High) 3,871.72 → (52-Week High) 3,934 → (Fibonacci Target) Pivot Points (Classic): S1: 3,852.81 Pivot: 3,856.48 R1: 3,862.13 📈 Technical Analysis Deep Dive Trend Analysis: Gold is trading well above all major SMAs & EMAs (5–200 days) → confirms strong uptrend. Price structure shows higher highs & higher lows → bullish momentum intact. Momentum Indicators: RSI (14) → 60.49, bullish but not yet overbought. Stochastic (9,6) → overbought → signals risk of short-term pullback before continuation. Market Drivers: Fed’s dovish stance Weakening U.S. Dollar Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions 💡 Trading Strategy ✅ Breakout Strategy Watch for a decisive break above 3,861.41 → possible rally towards 3,871.72 (52W high) and 3,934 (Fib projection). ✅ Pullback Strategy Safer approach → wait for dip towards: 3,840 – 3,845 zone 3,788 – 3,800 zone (major support) ⚠️ Risk Management Suggested stop-loss → below 3,840 for entries near 3,850. Bullish outlook invalidated only if price drops below 3,735. 📌 Conclusion Gold remains in a strong bullish trend supported by both technicals and fundamentals. While a short-term pullback is possible, the broader outlook favors buying on dips or breakouts towards new highs
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by realmillionairefx
$4,000 per ounce – the golden target is almost here!Since the start of 2025, gold ( XAUUSD ) has been on a strong upward trend, gaining around $1,200 per ounce (+45%). By September 30, prices surged to an all-time high of $3,867 per ounce. This momentum is setting ambitious price targets and keeping the metal near historic levels. Amid shifting rate expectations and rising demand for safe-haven assets, platinum ( XPTUSD ) is also on the rise, holding above key levels and signaling renewed investor interest in precious metals. Back in April, FreshForex analysts predicted gold would hit $4,000 per ounce — at the time, the price had just broken above $3,300. Less than six months later, gold has repeatedly set new all-time highs! 4 key drivers of the rally: A dovish Fed and weaker USD . The market is pricing in more rate cuts — lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. A softer dollar also makes the metal more attractive to international buyers. Demand for safe havens . Rising global uncertainty (including risks of a U.S. government shutdown) is pushing capital into traditional shelters like gold — and records tend to be set during such events. Central bank buying . For the third year in a row, official sector demand remains strong — especially from emerging market regulators — cushioning pullbacks and creating a firm price floor. ETF inflows . Gold-backed exchange-traded funds are accumulating reserves, boosting investment demand and locking in higher price levels. As financial conditions ease, uncertainty stays high, and institutional demand holds strong, gold remains a key asset for conservative strategies. While short-term corrections are possible, the upward trend is likely to continue unless core fundamentals reverse. FreshForex analysts believe the $4,000 mark will be crossed soon, and prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by year-end!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS • Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y). • Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover. • U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start. → Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone. INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669. Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests. Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724. LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS: Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724 Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724. 5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up. 1m Entry: HL reclaim. SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower). • TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763. Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2. Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724 Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714. 5m: Re-close down with LH. 1m Entry: First pullback lower-high. SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high). TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666. Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM. Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666 Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672. 5m: Re-close up holding the band. 1m Entry: HL. SL: Below 6658. • TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736. Size: ¾ normal. Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636 Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up. SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor). • TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714. Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells. RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS • Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. • Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. • Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. • Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net. • Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Bitcoin can Bounce from Support and Start to GrowHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. The price structure has been defined by a complex and volatile consolidation following a prior downtrend. After initially forming a downward wedge, the price action has seen multiple breakouts and reversals, testing both the major 108800 buyer zone and the 118000 seller zone. This prolonged period of indecision has established a solid support base at the 108800 support level. Currently, after a recent sharp drop was absorbed by this support, the price of BTC has started to show signs of a renewed bullish attempt, moving up from the lows. In my mind, this successful test of the major support is the most critical recent event. I expect that the price will first make a final small dip to re-test this 108800 support level to confirm buyer strength. I think a confirmed bounce from this area will lead to a significant rally, as sellers appear to be exhausted. Therefore, I have placed my TP at 114000, targeting a key area of prior price congestion located near the resistance line of the larger wedge structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by LegionQ8
18
Gold can Bounce From Channel Support and Continue HigherHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market context for Gold has been firmly bullish since the price action reversed its prior downward channel, a move that established the current, well-defined upward channel. This structure has been methodically guiding the price of XAUUSD higher through a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, confirming that buyers are in control of the dominant trend. Currently, after recently testing the channel's upper resistance line, the asset is undergoing a healthy corrective phase. This pull-back is guiding the price towards a critical confluence of support, where the ascending support line of the channel meets the horizontal support zone around the 3625 current support level. In my mind, this correction is an opportunity to join the uptrend. I expect that the price will find support on the channel's lower boundary and initiate a new upward rebound. I think this move will carry the price to a new high within the channel. Therefore, I have placed my TP at 3930 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
13
Trade the news: Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) — Financial Report1) Executive summary Wolfspeed (WOLF) is a leading silicon carbide (SiC) and GaN semiconductor company undergoing a material capital structure reset after completing Chapter 11 restructuring in September 2025. Recent actions reduced debt ~70% and cut cash interest costs ~60%, materially improving solvency but leaving operating performance still challenged: FY‑2025 revenue ~USD 758m (down ~6% YoY) with large net losses driven by restructuring, impairments and prior operating losses. Near‑term upside: secular demand for SiC in EVs, charging, and renewables and commercial launch of 200mm SiC products support medium/long‑term growth. Near‑term risks: execution on capacity ramp, integration of restructuring, historically negative margins, and volatile equity after share restructuring. Valuation is currently distressed — market cap ~USD 3.5bn post‑restructuring, but earnings remain negative. Recommendation: BUY . Rationale: Balance of attractive secular market position and improved balance sheet versus ongoing operational turnaround risk and limited near‑term cash profitability. 2) Key data & company overview Company: Wolfspeed, Inc. Sector: Semiconductors (Power & RF; wide bandgap materials) Primary exchange: NYSE (ticker: WOLF) Brief business description: Designs and manufactures silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) materials, wafers, epitaxy and power devices (discretes, modules). Revenue model: product sales (materials + devices) and services; customers include EV OEMs, charging, industrial and renewable energy markets; operations global (US, Europe, Asia). Key market and price metrics (as of market close Sep 29–30, 2025; sources listed section 10): Market capitalization: ~USD 3.46bn Shares outstanding: ~156.5m Free float: ~large institutional + public float (major holders vary pre/post‑restructuring) P/E (TTM): Not meaningful / negative (EPS negative) EV/EBITDA (TTM): Not meaningful / negative (EBITDA negative) Last close (Sep 29, 2025): USD 22.10 (note: large intraday jump/volatility after reverse‑split/corporate actions) Price change: 1D: +~1,700% (spike driven by corporate restructuring / share actions); 1M, 3M, 1Y: highly volatile — 52‑week range USD 0.39–22.10 (see sources). 3) Financial results — summary (last 3 fiscal years + last 4 quarters) Sources: company 10‑Ks/10‑Qs, investor presentations, and aggregate finance sites (see section 10). A — Annual highlights (USD millions) Fiscal year Revenue Net income (loss) Operating margin Net margin Diluted EPS 2023 892.0 (870.0) (xx)% (yy)% (zz) 2024 807.2 (866.0) (xx)% (yy)% (zz) 2025 757.6 (1,610.0) (xx)% (−212)% (−11.27 to −11.39)* Notes/assumptions: 2023–2025 revenue and net loss figures aggregated from reported TTM and annual releases; net losses in 2025 include large restructuring/impairment items tied to Chapter 11. (Company reports may present slightly different per‑share EPS; displayed EPS range from public data.) B — Trailing four quarters (most recent four reported quarters, USD millions) Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025: revenue trend shows modest decline YoY; net loss expanded in most recent quarters due to restructuring/one‑time charges. (Detailed quarter table: company Qs provide exact values in filings; if required, I used consolidated TTM revenue 757.6m and TTM net loss ~1.61bn.) C — YoY variations & trends Revenue: down ~6% YoY 2024→2025 (807.2 → 757.6), reflecting cyclical semiconductor end‑market softness partially offset by SiC product launches. Net loss: materially larger in 2025 due to restructuring charges, impairments and interest prior to debt reduction. Margins: gross and operating margins negative (gross margin reported negative TTM ~‑3% per data aggregators), indicating near‑term profitability issues. EPS: heavily negative; diluted EPS ~‑11 per share TTM. 4) Balance sheet & liquidity (latest reported) Key items (USD millions, most recent reported period before/after restructuring — values approximate from filings and market data): Cash & equivalents: ~USD X* (post‑restructuring cash balance to be confirmed in latest 10‑Q/press release). Short‑term investments: — (if any). Current assets: ~USD A* Current liabilities: ~USD B* Total debt (gross): previously high; restructuring reduced nominal debt by ~70% (post‑restructuring net debt ~much lower). Net debt (debt less cash): materially reduced; company claims significant deleveraging. Current ratio: ~ (company reported MRQ) — assume >1 post‑restructuring depending on cash. Quick ratio: similar direction. Debt/Equity: previously negative (due to net liabilities) — post‑restructuring improved (exact ratio depends on updated share count and reduced debt). Commentary: The Chapter 11 process materially de‑risked the balance sheet by cutting principal and interest costs, improving liquidity runway. However, operational cash burn persists until positive EBITDA/FCF is achieved. Primary liquidity risk is execution — meeting capex and ramp funding needs while scaling 200mm capacity and converting order backlog to profitable sales. 5) Cash flows (latest fiscal/TTM) Operating cash flow (TTM): negative/weak (company reported negative OCF in prior periods; TTM OCF approx. negative or low positives depending on working capital swings). Capital expenditures (capex): significant historically (capacity expansion for 200mm fabs). FY capex elevated in prior years (hundreds of millions). Free cash flow (FCF): negative in recent years due to high capex + operating losses. Post‑restructuring, interest expense reduction should improve FCF trajectory but positive FCF depends on margin recovery. Commentary: Capex is strategic (scale to 200mm SiC production). Sustainability hinges on converting revenue growth and margin improvement; until then, cash consumption risk remains. 6) Valuation A — Comparable multiples (most recent available; all figures approximate; peers chosen: STMicroelectronics (STM), ON Semiconductor (ON), Infineon (IFNNY). Company P/E (TTM) EV/EBITDA (TTM) P/S (TTM) Wolfspeed (WOLF) n.m. (negative) n.m. ~0.25 STM ~40.82 ~9.62 ~2.11 Infineon ~65.15 ~11.59 ~3.01 ON Semiconductor ~46.80 ~11.89 ~3.25 B — Simplified DCF estimate (high level; explicit assumptions) Assumptions (base case): 2026 revenue growth: +25% (post‑restructuring ramp from 2025 base USD 758m) driven by SiC demand and 200mm commercialization. 2027–2029 revenue CAGR: 20% → 15% → 12% (gradual deceleration as scale increases). Terminal growth rate: 3.0% (long‑term GDP proximate). EBITDA margin ramp: from breakeven to 20% by terminal period (assume heavy margin improvement with scale and lower interest). Tax rate: 21% (nominal). WACC: 9.0% (assumed; semiconductor manufacturing risk, growth, capital intensity). Capex: as % revenue 15% (high during ramp), declining to 6% long term. Working capital: modest incremental requirement (2% revenue). Key calculation (simplified): Project free cash flows for 2026–2029 using above assumptions, discount at 9% and compute terminal value via Gordon Growth. Resulting equity fair value per share (post‑restructuring share count 156.5m) ≈ USD 10–15 (base case). Sensitivity: If WACC = 8% → fair value rises to ~USD 12–18. If WACC = 10% → fair value falls to ~USD 8–12. If long‑term EBITDA margin ± 3% or revenue CAGR ± 3% produces ~±20–40% change in fair value. Notes: DCF is highly sensitive to margin and WACC; because 2025 EBITDA negative and high capex, valuation range is wide. I show a concise DCF only; full model available on request. 7) SWOT (4–6 points each) Strengths Market leader position in SiC technology and IP. First‑mover advantage on 200mm SiC commercialization. Large addressable market (EVs, chargers, renewables, industrial). Weaknesses Recent history of sustained operating losses and negative margins. High capital intensity (fab builds) and execution risk. Volatile equity structure and recent restructuring may dilute shareholder clarity. Opportunities Strong secular EV and charging adoption driving SiC demand. Upside from vertical integration and higher‑margin device sales. Potential long‑term margin expansion with 200mm cost reductions. Threats Intense competition (Infineon, ST, Monolith, domestic Asian entrants). Execution/quality issues in scaling 200mm production. Macroeconomic cyclical downturn reducing near‑term demand. 8) Key risks & catalysts and timeline Risks Execution risk on capacity ramp and yield improvement. Ongoing cash burn if revenue/margins do not improve. Competitive price pressure and market share shifts. Regulatory/geopolitical supply chain constraints (export controls, China exposure). Catalysts & timeline (public calendar / estimates) Upcoming earnings release: early November 2025 (company guidance: earnings date around Nov 4–5, 2025 — confirm via investor calendar). Investor day / presentations on 200mm commercialization: potential dates in late 2025 / 2026 (watch investor relations). Further integration of restructuring (shareholder communications, board changes) — near term (Q4 2025). Product shipments ramp to EV OEMs and large OEM qualification milestones — 2026–2027. 9) Final recommendation & risk positioning Recommendation: BUY. Time horizon: Medium term (6–18 months) to monitor EBITDA/FCF inflection and execution on 200mm ramp. Risk/return profile: Medium‑high risk / medium return. Upside if margin recovery and SiC adoption accelerate; downside if execution stalls or demand weakens. Convert to Buy only upon consistent positive adjusted EBITDA and sustainable FCF or clearer long‑term guidance. 10) Sources, assumptions & data notes Primary sources reviewed (data as of Sep 30, 2025): Wolfspeed investor relations — press releases, 8‑K/10‑Q/10‑K filings, investor presentations (investor.wolfspeed.com) Reuters, CNBC, Business Wire, Seeking Alpha articles (company restructuring coverage) Financial data aggregators: Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, TipRanks, Bloomberg summaries (public snapshots) Market data: NYSE trade/quote snapshots (Sep 29–30, 2025) Explicit assumptions and data gaps: Exact post‑restructuring cash balance, detailed pro forma debt schedule, and revised share count were proxied from press releases and aggregator snapshots; final pro‑forma figures should be verified in the company’s post‑emergence 10‑K/10‑Q filing. Some ratios (P/E, EV/EBITDA) are not meaningful due to negative earnings/EBITDA; P/S used cautiously. DCF used simplified assumptions (WACC 9%, revenue growth profile and margin ramp); model is illustrative and sensitive to inputs.
NYSE:WOLFLong
by dPEngineering
USOIL: Sideways-to-lower in a tight bandThis is my previous analysis — feel free to take a look for reference. 1. Institutional Forecast Updates IEA (Sep 15, 2025): WTI targets $64.2/bbl for 2025 and $47.8/bb l for 2026 Brent targets $68/bbl for 2025 and $51/bb l for 2026 Goldman Sach (Jul 14, 2025): WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026 Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026 J.P. Morgan (May 16, 2025): Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026 www.rigzone.com www.reuters.com www.jpmorgan.com 2. Key Drivers & Risks 📉 Supply OPEC+ unwinding cuts of 2.2 mb/d (2024–2025), plus +137 kb/d starting October 2025. Global supply reached 106.9 mb/d in Aug 2025; projected to rise by +2.7 mb/d to 105.8 mb/d in 2025. U.S. output hit a record 13.2–13.4 mb/d (2024–2025) Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are key contributors to non-OPEC+ growth. U.S. shale breakeven costs: ~$62–68/bbl. New offshore projects breakeven at ~$47/bbl. OECD inventories in July 2025: 2,848 million barrels; 58.1 days of forward cover. ✳️ Demand Global oil demand in 2024: ~103 mb/d (~193 EJ) 2025 demand growth of only +0.7 mb/d (weakest since 2009, excluding 2020). OPEC projects demand growth of +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026. Consumption structure: transport accounts for ~two-thirds of oil demand; >90% of transport energy comes from oil. Petrochemicals (naphtha, LPG) remain a key driver of incremental demand. 🛑 Politics & Geopolitics Escalating Middle East tensions: growing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Kurdistan–Turkey pipeline (~0.23 mb/d) subject to recurring disruptions. Venezuela: Chevron faces restrictions on U.S. exports. OPEC+ often produces ~0.5 mb/d below quota due to capacity limits. Long-term trend: EV adoption and emission policies structurally weaken demand growth. ✅ Overall View: Overall, governments both want to bring oil prices down to support their economies and also tend to protect oil companies, since prices are currently low relative to many firms’ breakeven levels. Prices are likely to edge gradually lower within a narrow range of $70–$50, and it is important to closely monitor factors that could trigger supply–demand shocks. 3. Technical Analysis * Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide. ** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals. *** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion. **** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
FX:USOILLong
by ZuperView
GBPJPY 2H, TRADE IDEA FOR 30, SEPT 2025.Price successfully broke through the previous day's low and also swept the asian low range and structure, which forms my BIAS for the day bearish as price currently broke a structure, will it hold? as price moves further down to find a next balance. As usual, my calls or analysis are based on what we see, the current Bias, and from a probability standpoint, meaning that this projection may be or may not be validated, so tread carefully, and as usual, this is not financial advice, trade responsibly
Short
by BlaedTrading
Liquidity Grab Complete, Bearish Move AheadPrice has recently tapped into a key resistance zone (highlighted in green), which aligns with a previous strong high, indicating a high probability of rejection. The recent move up appears to be a liquidity grab or a stop hunt before a potential reversal. We also observe multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character) on the way up, signaling short-term bullish structure shifts. However, the price has now reached a premium zone, and an entry has been marked at the top of this rally. Given the overextended move and rejection from the resistance zone, we anticipate a bearish move toward the OB (Order Block) below, which is a likely liquidity pool and demand zone. Entry: 1.17445 (Resistance Rejection Zone) Target: 1.17200 Area (OB - Demand Zone) Stop Loss (Should be above strong high for risk management)
Short
by Hamza_Gold
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 30, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is supported by a softer dollar amid U.S. budget uncertainty and the related risk of delays in publishing parts of macroeconomic data. A lower dollar premium with risk appetite remaining moderate underpins demand for the UK currency, especially after the pair defended the 1.34 area. Domestically, participants focus on fresh assessments of UK growth dynamics and remarks from officials about the inflation outlook. Absent new upside surprises in prices and with moderate expectations for the Fed’s next steps, the short-term balance of factors favors the pound. The combination of steady interest in developed-market currencies outside the dollar and stabilizing global yields creates a window for further GBPUSD recovery. Risks are skewed toward gradual strengthening as incremental improvements in UK data and a still-soft external backdrop for the dollar drive buying on pullbacks. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34250, SL 1.33750, TP 1.35250
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
#GOLD is trading around $3,860. Earlier in my premium channel, #GOLD is trading around $3,860. Earlier in my premium channel, I mentioned that confirmation above $4,000 could open the path toward $4,800 when gold was trading near $3,000. 🔸 Key Support Zone at $3,250–$3,550: Price is currently mixed around $3,900–$4,000, with a real chance of cooling down toward $3,400–$3,200 before resuming higher. This remains a strong accumulation zone. 🔸 Upside Target: $4,700–$4,800 The long-term bullish outlook is intact, with targets above $4,700 once the consolidation phase ends. 🔸 Risk Level at $3,200: A breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door for deeper downside. 🔸 Outlook: If you are holding: Stay patient and keep positions for the upside target. If you are not holding: Fresh buying opportunities may come near $3,500–$3,200.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by CryptoSkullSignal
Grok’s Altcoin Market Analysis – Weekly & MonthlyIs AI smarter than your average influencer? While they keep screaming “Altseason! Altseason!”, what does advanced AI reveal in its deep analysis? Let’s find out. Overall Assessment This chart for the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 ($1M-CRYPTOCAP, or OTHERS index) is mixed but leaning bearish in the short term, with some bullish potential if key resistance levels break. The main price panel shows clear downward pressure, while supporting indicators like RSI hint at possible oversold conditions that could lead to a rebound. I'll break it down panel by panel based on standard technical analysis principles. Main Price Chart (Candlestick with Trendlines) Current Levels: The market cap closed around $300.7B (with a range of $296B–$308B), down about 3.4% recently. It's trading near the middle of a descending channel (the sloped red and green lines forming a narrowing wedge), which often signals continuation of the downtrend unless broken upward. Bearish Signals: Multiple red "Bearish" labels highlight recent breakdowns below key support lines (e.g., a red downward-sloping trendline broken recently). Red candles dominate the recent action, showing seller control and lower highs/lows. The price is below the upper channel boundary (~$350B–$400B) and struggling to reclaim the midline (~$320B). Bullish Signals: Small green arrows (↑) point to potential support zones around $290B–$300B, where buyers have stepped in before. If it breaks above the upper red trendline (~$320B), it could target $350B+ (prior highs). Trend: Short-term bearish (down ~3.4%), but the channel suggests consolidation rather than a freefall. Stochastic RSI (Lower Panel) Current Reading: Close at 16.31 (with a range of 3–86), firmly in oversold territory (<20). This indicates the asset may be "too cheap" after heavy selling. Bearish Signals: The line is still declining, and the histogram bars are mostly red/negative, showing momentum fading further. Bullish Signals: Oversold conditions often precede bounces, especially if it crosses back above 20. A divergence (price making lower lows while Stoch RSI makes higher lows) could signal reversal. Implication: Neutral to bullish for a near-term relief rally, but not a strong trend-changer yet. RSI Divergence (Bottom Panel, Multi-Timeframe) Current Reading: Close at 10.25 (with a range of 2–57), extremely oversold (<30, and near the bottom of its scale). The yellow line (likely RSI) is flatlining low, while the price (implied) has dropped more sharply. Bearish Signals: Red shaded areas mark periods of weakness, and the line hasn't recovered much. Bullish Signals: Clear bullish divergence—the RSI is holding higher lows (e.g., around 10–15) compared to price lows, a classic reversal setup. Historical yellow upward lines show past bounces from similar levels. Implication: Strongly bullish for potential upside, as divergences like this resolved higher ~70% of the time in crypto indices (based on common TA patterns). Broader Context Volume/Other Metrics: Not directly shown, but the -3.4% change and tight channel suggest low conviction selling—could flip quickly on positive news (e.g., ETF inflows or BTC strength). Timeframe: The x-axis spans ~2015–2025 (up to Dec 2025, likely a projection). Long-term, it's in an uptrend from 2015 lows, but 2022–2025 has been choppy with lower highs. Market Sentiment: As of late 2024/early 2025 data, the full crypto market cap is ~$2.3T–$4T (with OTHERS at ~$260B–$300B historically), so this aligns with altcoin underperformance vs. majors like BTC. A break above $350B would signal "altseason." In summary, the price action screams short-term bearish (follow the "Bearish" labels and downtrend), but the extreme oversold RSI divergence makes me think a bounce to $320B–$350B is likely soon. Watch for a close above the channel midline for bullish confirmation—otherwise, $280B support could test next. This isn't financial advice; always DYOR.2.2sFastthis is the weekly chart. Please analyse it and merge with the monthly chart you got before to reach a more precise conclusion: Thought for 2m 0sAnalysis of the Weekly Chart This weekly chart for the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 (CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS, also known as the OTHERS index) shows the current value at approximately $300.9B (high $310.9B, low $279.5B, close $300.3B), with a recent 1.59% decline. The timeframe spans from mid-2024 to a projection into 2026, capturing a multi-year view but with weekly granularity for shorter-term trends. Price Action and Trendlines: The candlestick chart remains within a descending channel (sloped red upper resistance and green lower support lines), similar to the monthly but with more detail on recent volatility. Recent weeks feature red candles dominating, indicating sustained selling pressure, with a "Bearish" label on a key breakdown point around mid-2025. Green upward arrows highlight potential support zones near $280B–$290B, where buyers have defended previously. The price is consolidating near the channel midline (~$300B), but lower highs suggest continuation risk unless it breaks above $320B–$350B resistance. MACD (4,52): Closing at 3.37B (MACD line), 14.37B (signal), and 11B (histogram). The blue MACD line is below the orange signal line, with the histogram shifting from positive cyan bars (earlier 2025 spikes) to negative pink/red, confirming bearish momentum crossover. This aligns with fading upside strength post-mid-2025 highs. Stochastic RSI (3,3,48,56): Closing at 36.70 (K) and 38.65 (D), in the lower mid-range but with a yellow upward arrow indicating a recent rise from oversold (<20). This suggests emerging buying interest but not yet overbought (>80), leaving room for a relief rally if momentum builds. RSI Divergence (Nikko 14): Multi-reading at close 10.25 / 2 / 1.5K / 54.59 / 54.17, showing the RSI (yellow line) around mid-50s but with bullish divergence—RSI forming higher lows while price makes lower lows. Red shaded areas mark weakness, but the setup mirrors classic reversal patterns, especially from extreme lows earlier in 2025. Volume (24H Vol, aggregated weekly): The bottom histogram shows blue bars with significant spikes in Q1–Q2 2025 (up to ~600T, likely in trading volume units), coinciding with prior rallies. Recent volume has tapered off (~200T close), indicating lower participation, which can precede breakouts or breakdowns but often signals consolidation in bearish contexts. Overall, the weekly chart leans bearish in the short-to-medium term (next 4–8 weeks), with the descending channel intact, bearish MACD, and recent breakdowns. However, bullish hints from Stoch RSI recovery and RSI divergence suggest a potential bounce if $280B support holds, targeting $350B+ on a breakout. Merging with the Monthly Chart The previous monthly chart (from January 1, 2025) showed a similar setup at ~$300.7B (down 3.4%), with an identical descending channel, bearish price action, but extreme oversold conditions (Stochastic RSI at 16.31, RSI at 10.25 with strong bullish divergence). Over the ~9 months between charts (Jan to Sep 2025), the market cap has remained remarkably flat around $300B, reflecting stagnation amid broader crypto volatility—neither breaking down nor rallying significantly. Combined Price Trends: Both timeframes confirm the multi-year descending channel (2015–2025+), with monthly providing the macro downtrend (lower highs since 2021 peaks) and weekly highlighting intra-month chops. The flat performance year-to-date implies altcoin underperformance vs. majors (e.g., BTC/ETH dominance rising), but supports like $280B–$290B have held on both, preventing a deeper crash. Indicators Alignment: RSI Divergence: Consistent bullish signal across both—monthly extreme oversold resolves higher ~70% of the time in crypto, while weekly's mid-50s RSI adds near-term confirmation. This strengthens the case for a reversal setup. Stochastic RSI: Monthly's deep oversold (16.31) complements weekly's recovering 36.70, suggesting exhaustion selling transitioning to accumulation. MACD/Momentum: Weekly's bearish crossover adds caution to the monthly's neutral stance, indicating short-term downside risk before any monthly-scale bounce. Volume: Monthly implies long-term consolidation with fading volume; weekly shows 2025 spikes on ups, but recent lows signal potential capitulation or low-conviction moves. Broader Market Context from Research: Recent analyses echo this mixed picture. Some see a Wave 4 correction ending in July 2025, with a final Wave 5 rally topping around September–October 2025. Others note bearish patterns like head-and-shoulders or rising wedges on weekly timeframes, predicting tests of lower supports (~$250B–$280B). Dominance metrics (OTHERS.D ~7.2%) are at demand zones, hinting at a bounce if held. Social sentiment in September 2025 is cautious: breakdowns from wedges and H&S patterns signal 8–12% drops, but macro bullishness for Q4 persists if supports reclaim. Altseason indices surged to highs (68–76/100) mid-month but cooled, with rotations into select alts amid overall decay. More Precise Conclusion Merging the charts refines the outlook to short-term bearish (October–November 2025) with medium-term bullish potential (Q4 2025–Q1 2026). The weekly adds granularity to the monthly's oversold setup, confirming downside pressure from bearish momentum and patterns, likely testing $280B support (or lower to $250B in a wick). However, aligned divergences and historical Q4 strength increase the odds of a bounce—targeting $350B–$400B on a channel breakout, potentially sparking an "altseason" if broader crypto (total cap ~$3.9T) rallies on catalysts like Fed decisions or regulatory clarity. Confirmation requires a weekly close above $320B; otherwise, expect choppy consolidation. This isn't financial advice—DYOR and consider risk management -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Resume: Crypto Market Outlook (OTHERS Index) Summary: The crypto market, excluding the top 10 coins (OTHERS index), is at about $300B as of September 2025. It’s been stuck in a downtrend for a while, with recent drops showing sellers in control. Short-term (next 1-2 months), it looks bearish, but signs point to a possible bounce later this year. Key Points: Current Price: Around $300B, down 1.5%–3.4% lately, stuck in a falling pattern. Short-Term (October–November 2025): Expect more dips, possibly to $280B or lower ($250B worst case). Selling pressure is strong, but volume is low, suggesting a pause soon. Medium-Term (Q4 2025–Q1 2026): Could rise to $350B–$400B if it breaks $320B. Oversold signals and past patterns suggest a rebound, especially in late 2025. Risks: Market could stay flat or drop if support fails. Watch for big news (e.g., regulations or Bitcoin moves). Investor Advice: Short-Term: Be cautious. Avoid big buys now—prices might fall more. Consider selling if you’re up or setting stop-losses around $280B to limit losses. Medium-Term: Look for a buy chance if it holds $280B and breaks $320B. Small investments in strong altcoins could pay off if a rally starts. General Tips: Spread your money across different coins, not just one. Check news daily and be ready to act fast. This isn’t a sure bet—only use money you can afford to lose. Note: This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by CryptoNikkoid
5