How did gold perform after the PPI news?🧭 1. Trendline
Descending trendline (red – dynamic resistance)
Price has clearly broken out above the descending trendline.
Price is currently in a slight retest of this trendline → if it holds above 4,150–4,160, a short-term uptrend is confirmed.
Ascending trendline (hidden in the underlying structure)
Confluence support zone is around 4,107–4,110
→ This is a very strong area for a pullback if it occurs.
🧱 2. Support – Resistance
Key Resistance
4,209–4,212: Strong supply zone, also a confluence with the previous peak area.
4,240–4,242: 1.618 Fibonacci extension + peak in the major supply zone → important target.
Support
4.107 – 4.110: Confluence of:
Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618
EMA as support
Retest zone breakout
→ This is a priority buy area if the price pulls back.
📐 3. Fibonacci
The 0.5 – 0.618 Fibonacci of the rising wave is right in the green support zone → confirming strong demand.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension points to 4.240 – 4.245 → most likely the final target of this rising wave.
BUY GOLD: 4107 - 4110
Stop Loss: 4097
Take Profit: 100-300-500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4209 - 4212
Stop Loss: 4222
Take Profit: 100-300-500 pips
Analysis
Tech giants and a crypto exchange under pressure!Recently, the stocks of Advanced Micro Devices (#AMD), Coinbase Global Inc. (#Coinbase), Oracle Corp. (#Oracle), NVIDIA Corp. (#NVIDIA), and Arm Holdings plc (#Arm) have come under pressure amid a reassessment of artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and growing caution toward risk assets. Investors are reacting nervously to the cost of capital, the pace of AI monetization, and the resilience of demand within adjacent ecosystems.
5 Factors Behind the Decline:
#AMD (−10.33%) — profit-taking after a strong rally and growing doubts about the scalability of server GPUs. Additional pressure comes from margin risks driven by aggressive capital spending and competition in high-performance GPU accelerators.
#Coinbase (−10.31%) — a weakening crypto market reduces trading volumes and fee revenue. Regulatory risks and volatile client flows deepen the valuation discounts.
#Oracle (−10.29%) — concerns over rising debt levels amid heavy investments in cloud and AI infrastructure. The market fears shrinking free cash flow and pressure on valuation multiples if growth slows.
#NVIDIA (−4.08%) — “overvaluation + maxed-out expectations”: even strong earnings reports fail to calm concerns about cyclical demand in data centers. Added to this are risks of margin normalization and potential inventory build-ups among customers.
#Arm (−3.02%) — high sensitivity to sell-offs in the “AI sector,” especially given its premium valuation. Investors question how quickly the royalty-based model can translate into stable accelerated growth.
If concerns about AI-related spending and uncertainty around interest rates persist, stocks inflated by AI and crypto market expectations may continue to fall. Further capital outflows or rising borrowing costs would serve as triggers for additional downside.
FreshForex analysts see potential for a correction in #AMD, #NVIDIA, #Arm, #Oracle, and #Coinbase due to slowing AI infrastructure growth and persistently high capital costs. For #Coinbase , elevated crypto market volatility is an additional pressure factor. The current market situation creates conditions for developing scenarios for asset price declines.
SPX500 Short
Deep crab pattern completes on M15, mapping a potential reversal zone.
Multiple tops formed on M15 and M30 at the same area, reinforcing overhead supply from the prior day’s high that price could not break.
RSI reached overbought on M15 and M30, indicating crowded long positioning.
Approximately 20 points of RSI bearish divergence across M15 and M30, consistent with a weakening advance.
H4 has turned down after last week’s rebound and now aligns with a downside continuation view.
Daily slope is flattening and price is trading beneath it, suggesting the early stages of a broader reversal can develop if sellers follow through.
Bias is short of the reversal zone identified by the deep crab and repeated tops.
Stop loss set at 50 pips to cap risk if resistance fails.
First target at 6,600, which is 100 pips from entry, with room to manage partials at nearby structure if momentum confirms.
Several US indices and other global indices are printing similar topping behavior and momentum fades, adding intermarket confluence to the short idea.
EURUSD Long: Buyers Eye a Push Toward 1.15700 Supply ZoneHello traders! EURUSD continues to trade within a broader bearish market structure, remaining below the long-term Supply Line, which acts as dynamic resistance and keeps the pair under selling pressure. The chart shows several pivot points forming along both the supply trendline and the rising demand trendline, confirming the current wedge-like structure. Earlier, the pair created a Rounding Top Pattern near the upper boundary of the structure, which signaled weakening bullish momentum and triggered a sharp decline toward the Demand Line. After touching the demand trendline around 1.1500, EURUSD formed a strong bullish reaction at the pivot point, showing buyers stepping in to maintain support. However, the recent breakout and retest of minor structure levels still leave the pair below the key 1.15700 Supply Zone, where price has reacted multiple times in the past. This zone aligns with horizontal supply and the descending Supply Line — forming a high-confluence resistance area.
Currently, the pair is attempting to recover toward 1.15700, which is the nearest upside target. If price reaches this level, it may face strong selling pressure once again, as previous breakouts from this zone turned into bearish rejection candles. As long as EURUSD remains trapped between the Demand Line and Supply Line, the overall structure stays corrective and heavily dependent on reactions at these key zones.
My scenario as long as EURUSD holds above the Demand Zone at 1.1500–1.1510, buyers may attempt a short-term recovery toward 1.15700, which acts as the nearest structural resistance. A clean breakout above 1.15700 would confirm bullish strength and could open the way for a deeper correction toward the descending Supply Line. However, if the pair gets rejected at the Supply Zone again, sellers may regain control and push price back toward 1.1510–1.1500, where demand is expected to react. A confirmed break below 1.1500 would invalidate the bullish recovery potential and could signal continuation of the broader bearish trend. For now, EURUSD supports a short-term bullish retracement, but the larger trend remains bearish while price stays below the descending Supply Line. Manage your risk!
Anticipate Movement Inside of a Range EnvironmentA large portion of crypto price action does not trend. It ranges. And for many traders, this is where the most capital is lost. A range environment feels simple on the surface price moves between two boundaries, but inside those boundaries, liquidity builds, traps form, and false signals appear constantly. Understanding how ranges behave is a core skill for developing consistency.
A range forms when the market fails to create meaningful higher highs or lower lows. Buyers and sellers balance out, and price oscillates between defined support and resistance. This compression is not random. It reflects indecision, accumulation, or distribution depending on the higher-time frame context. Traders who treat a range like a trend are the ones most often punished.
The first step is identifying the boundaries. Equal highs at the top of a range and equal lows at the bottom reveal where stops accumulate. These stops become liquidity pools. Price frequently sweeps one side of the range before moving to the other, trapping breakouts and fading momentum traders. A clean sweep is not the breakout; it is the intention-revealing event before direction is chosen.
Inside the range, structural signals lose reliability. Traditional trend tools cannot be applied. Instead, focus on behaviour at the edges: rejection wicks, failed breakouts, displacement after a sweep, and reclaim patterns. These reactions show whether a sweep is simply clearing liquidity or if a genuine expansion is developing.
Patience is critical. Entering in the middle of the range exposes you to noise, uncertainty, and poor reward-to-risk. The edge comes from waiting at the boundaries where liquidity sits and confirmation appears. A range can persist far longer than expected, so forcing trades inside it leads to frustration and unnecessary losses.
The real purpose of studying ranges is not just to trade them but to anticipate what follows. A compression phase often precedes expansion. When liquidity on one side is taken and price breaks structure with intent, the next directional leg becomes far easier to participate in. Ranges are where future trends prepare themselves.
BTCUSD: Bulls Aim for Recovery Toward $92,000 Resistance ZoneHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSD continues to move within a clearly defined Downward Channel, respecting both the descending resistance line and the lower support boundary. After a prolonged bearish continuation from the major Range structure seen earlier, Bitcoin broke several intermediate support levels before reaching the Support Zone around $84,000, where strong buyers stepped in. A Fake Breakout below the channel support triggered aggressive buying activity, sending the price back above the Support Zone and forming a short-term recovery structure. From this point, BTCUSD made a corrective bounce and even managed to break above a minor descending resistance, confirming a temporary shift in momentum.
Currently, price is approaching the Resistance Zone near $88,000–$90,000, which aligns with the upper boundary of the Downward Channel. This area has previously generated strong sell-offs and remains the key obstacle for buyers. A clean breakout above $90,000 would signal bullish continuation and may lead to a deeper recovery toward the next liquidity cluster near $92,000–$94,000. As long as BTCUSD holds above the $84,000 Support Zone, the short-term structure supports a bullish correction. However, if price gets rejected from the $90,000 resistance and fails to stay above support, sellers may regain control and push the market back toward the lower channel boundary.
My Scenario & Strategy
From my perspective, BTCUSD maintains a bullish corrective outlook while respecting the Support Zone around $84,000. The first target remains the $90,000 Resistance Zone, which matches both horizontal resistance and the channel’s upper boundary. A confirmed breakout above $90,000 would open the path toward $92,000–$94,000, where the next reaction levels are located. I will look for long opportunities during pullbacks toward the Support Zone or along the rising minor trendline that formed after the fake breakout.
If BTCUSD breaks back below $84,000, the bullish scenario becomes invalid, and a continuation of the major downward trend may follow. For now, price action supports a bullish recovery setup as long as buyers defend the Support Zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD Ascending Channel Strengthens: Bulls Target $4,130 TP1Hello traders! I want to share my view on the current XAUUSD setup. After a deep corrective move, gold has formed a local bottom around the Support Level at $4,000–$4,030, where strong buying pressure has re-entered the market. As shown on the chart, price is gradually climbing within a well-defined ascending channel, supported by the rising trendline and a parallel upper boundary. Inside this structure, the Buyer Zone has played a crucial role, providing the base for previous impulsive breakouts. Several fake breakdowns below the channel support confirmed the presence of significant demand. After these rebounds, XAUUSD twice reached the Seller Zone and the Resistance Level near $4,130, where it faced clear rejection and rotated back toward the Buyer Zone. Currently, gold is holding above the ascending channel support. If buyers continue to defend the $4,030 level and price remains stable within the Buyer Zone, I expect a move toward TP1 → $4,130, which is the nearest resistance. A clean breakout above this level would open the door for further bullish continuation toward the upper supply area around $4,200–$4,230. However, if the price breaks below the Buyer Zone and drops out of the channel, the bullish scenario becomes invalid, and the market may revisit the $4,000 support area. For now, the structure remains moderately bullish as long as price holds above demand and stays inside the ascending channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 25, 2025 EURUSDEvent to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index
EURUSD:
The euro holds just above 1.15000 as the market ramps up expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. The drop in long-dated U.S. yields and a rebound in risk appetite reduce the premium for holding the dollar and support the euro. Rate futures indicate a high probability of a policy adjustment in the coming weeks, narrowing the yield differential.
On the European side, the picture appears calmer: there are signs of stabilization in business activity, and the ECB is essentially taking a prolonged pause. Tame inflation and a moderate labor market reduce the risk of further easing, which lowers pressure on euro funding costs and supports investor interest in the region’s debt—therefore backing the single currency.
In the U.S., the focus is on household spending and the PCE inflation gauge: softer readings would reinforce a repricing of the Fed’s path. If the opposite occurs, the dollar may firm temporarily, but without a stark shift in the data the balance of factors still favors a gradual rise in EURUSD.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.15150, SL 1.14950, TP 1.15750
Bitcoin Market Truth: Whales, Corrections, and the BraveHello my friends,
I have carefully analyzed Bitcoin for you.
Markets never move straight up; they progress with corrections. Whales often take profit along the way. Think of it like running a supermarket: you buy apples at the cheapest price so that when customers purchase from you, you make a profit. Whales use the same logic. They trick people into thinking prices are falling, but in reality, their goal is to balance supply and demand. They feed on the losses of others.
For me, the most suitable buying zone is between 85,000 and 74,000 dollars. From this range I will enter the trade, with my first target at 107,000 and my second target at 120,000 dollars.
This business belongs to the fearless and the brave. If you act out of fear of losing money, this is not for you. Those who cannot manage risk should look for other paths.
My dear friends, every single like you give is my greatest motivation to continue sharing these analyses. Thank you to all who support me—you are the reason I keep going.
Each of my followers is like family to me, never forget that.
⚠️ And remember this: In trading, don’t trust everyone who calls themselves a “trader.” Most of the people you follow don’t earn a cent in their real accounts. This is not an easy business. Around 90% of people lose consistently, while only about 10% make money regularly. Many YouTubers or influencers you see online don’t actually profit with their real money. In fact, some of the celebrities you follow come to me asking for analysis. I won’t expose names, but these are the facts.
Respect and love
Gold trend continues today November 25th✅ 1. Trend Lines
Upper trend line (red - descending)
Connects a series of lower highs → acts as strong dynamic resistance.
Price has broken through the trend line and is retesting it → the short-term trend will turn bullish if the retest is successful.
Lower trend line (red - ascending)
Connects the upper lows → acts as dynamic support for a symmetrical triangle pattern (consolidation).
This area coincides with a Fibonacci level → strong support – confluence if the price continues to correct.
✅ 2. Key Support – Resistance
Resistance
4,210 – 4,240:
→ Key resistance – short-term bearish potential.
Breaking above the 1.618 Fibonacci level
→ Strong resistance – take-profit zone for buyers.
Support
4.105 – 4.100 (green zone):
Retest zone after breakout
Fibonacci support 0.5–0.618
→ Best buy zone if price retests.
✅ 3. Fibonacci
0.618 at 4.105: First retest → chart reaction.
On the downside, the 4.071 zone touches the trendline.
Extension 1.618 at 4.240: Maximum target if the uptrend is confirmed.
🎯 Trading Plan
BUY GOLD: 4105 – 4103
Stop Loss: 4093
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
SELL GOLD: 4210 – 4212
Stop Loss: 4222
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
XAUUSD INTRADAY – Breakout + Retest Reaction SetupFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case (Primary Bias)
If price holds the 4060–4070 retest zone and prints bullish confirmation, buyers may target:
🎯 1st Target: 4105–4112
🎯 2nd Target: 4150–4165
This scenario remains valid as long as price stays above 4040.
❌ Bearish Case (Invalidation Trigger)
If price fails to hold above 4040 and breaks below the demand zone, a deeper sell-side expansion may follow toward:
Only a clean break below 4040 shifts sentiment bearish.
Current Levels to Watch
Supply Zone: 4060–4075
Support Zone / Entry Interest: 4045–4040
Key Demand: 4025–4035
Major Resistance: 4165–4175
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please manage risk and trade based on your own strategy.
Gold Market Analysis - 24 NOVEMBER 2025- On the H1 chart, the gold market is currently reacting correctly at the important support zone of 4047–4050, corresponding to the bottom of the (A) – (B) – (C) correction pattern in the recovery wave structure.
1️⃣ Current Elliott wave context
- The previous down wave has completed 5 waves (1)-(5).
- The market then entered a large ABC correction phase:
- Wave (A) has formed a short-term top around 4120.
- Wave (B) has created a sideways accumulation zone.
- Wave (C) is in the completion stage — and the price is currently retesting the bottom zone (C).
This shows that the current down wave is not the main trend, but just the completion of the correction wave.
2️⃣ Important support is holding the price
- Strong support zone: 4040–4042
→ This is:
✔ Confluence of wave C bottom
✔ Strong price reaction zone in the past several sessions
- Price is showing signs of bottoming here (long candle tail, weak selling pressure).
3️⃣ Technical signals confirm the possibility of reversal
Stochastic H1 is in the oversold zone and starting to curve up → bullish signal.
The candle continuously draws its legs at the 4042 zone → buyers absorb very well.
The decreasing amplitude gradually weakens → showing that selling pressure is drying up.
4️⃣ Expected trend today
High probability scenario: Bottom formation → Strong increase forming wave (C) increase
If the price stays above 4040 – 4042, the market is likely to bounce back up according to the trajectory:
- Near target: 4080 – 4100
- Important target: 4120
- Completed wave (C) target: 4180 – 4200
This is the main increase wave after completing the ABC correction structure.
❗ Alternative scenario (lower)
- If 4040 - 4042 is broken by a strong closing H1 candle → the market will retest the area:
4000 – 3980
- But the probability is low because the current selling pressure is quite weak.
📌 Conclusion
- The market is following the ABC correction pattern.
- Wave C is almost complete and the price is standing on the final support zone.
- Stochastic oversold → bullish reversal sign.
- Main scenario today: gold bounces back, heading towards 4100 – 4180
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 24, 2025 USDJPYThe pair holds above 156 amid a calm dollar, but the news flow from Japan raises reversal risks: the Ministry of Finance has stepped up warnings about readiness for currency actions if yen weakening accelerates, and this week’s liquidity may be thinner than usual. That restrains further upside at sensitive levels.
An additional factor is the signal that the Bank of Japan could consider steps toward normalization in the near term amid sustained wage and price growth. The yield gap in favor of the US remains significant, but the policy-market price of intervention risk for long USD/JPY positions has increased.
Given this, selling from 156.60 with protection at 157.000 and a target at 155.400 is preferable: stronger verbal signals from authorities and the possibility of changes in the central bank’s stance may trigger demand for the yen during another bout of dollar volatility.
Trading recommendation: SELL 156.600, SL 157.000, TP 155.400
BTC/USDT 1W chart review📉 1. Market structure – trend and break
• The chart shows a black upward trend line that has led the market since 2023.
• This line has been clearly broken, which means:
✔ weakening of the structure
✔ the first serious threat to the upward trend
✔ possible move towards lower support levels
A breakout of the weekly trendline usually ends a medium-term upward trend.
⸻
📉 2. Current price
BTC is around USDT 87,770 and the weekly candle is heavily bearish.
This means that buyers do not react to the first support.
⸻
🟥 3. Most important support levels
1) 92,086 USDT – local resistance zone (previously support)
• Price has broken this support from above → now acts as resistance.
• To return to growth, BTC would have to close the week above this zone.
2) 84,583 USDT – first major support
• Price is just above the zone.
• If this fails → there will be an increased chance of continued declines.
3) 74,324 USDT – key macro support (MAIN LEVEL)
This is the most important level of the chart.
• This is the level where demand must occur if BTC is to maintain its long-term structure.
• Breaking this barrier will open the way to declines even to around 60-65k.
⸻
🟩 4. Resistance levels
1) USDT 92,086
Closest resistance – key to recovery.
2) USDT 100,794
Big weekly resistance that stopped the market earlier.
Only a breakout → continuation of the bull market.
⸻
📊 5. Stochastic (week) – very important
At the bottom you can see Stochastic sliding down, almost at the value of 0-20 (oversold).
Interpretation:
• There is no buy signal yet because the lines have not turned upwards.
• Weekly momentum is still down, so the pressure on support continues.
📈 7. Scenarios
Bullish (less likely for now)
1. Maintaining 84.5k
2. Stochastic weekly turns upwards
3. Price returns above 92k
➡️ Target: 100.7k
Bearish (more likely)
1. Breakthrough 84.5k
2. Retest from the bottom
3. Drop to 74.3k
➡️ If 74k breaks → 65-68k
EURUSD: Targets focus on declines to 1.1480 support levelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD continues to trade within a clear Downward Channel, maintaining a strong bearish structure characterized by consistent lower highs and lower lows. Early in the chart, the pair formed a prolonged Range Phase, signaling indecision before sellers eventually took control and pushed the price downward. After breaking below the range, EURUSD repeatedly retested the Resistance Area around 1.1550, where the market showed strong bearish reactions. Each bounce into this resistance zone resulted in a clear rejection, proving that sellers consistently defend this area. The chart also highlights multiple Breakout attempts, all of which failed to sustain upward continuation, confirming a lack of bullish strength. Additionally, the chart shows the formation of a Triangle Pattern, with price reacting between the Triangle Resistance Line and the Triangle Support Line. Despite temporary recoveries, every move upward was limited and capped by descending trendline pressure.
Currently, EURUSD broke below the minor structure support again, demonstrating that bearish momentum remains dominant. Price is now heading toward the Support Zone near 1.1480, which aligns with both horizontal demand and the Triangle Support Line. This confluence makes it a key level to watch. As long as EURUSD trades below the 1.1550 Resistance Area and stays inside the Downward Channel, the bearish structure remains intact. Any bullish recovery is likely to be corrective rather than trend-changing unless buyers manage to break above major resistance.
My Scenario & Strategy
I expect EURUSD to continue edging lower toward the 1.1480 Support Zone, following the recent rejection from resistance. A minor upward correction may occur, potentially retesting broken support or the Triangle Resistance Line, but such a move would likely be short-lived without strong bullish confirmation.
A confirmed breakdown below 1.1480 would open the path for deeper bearish continuation within the Downward Channel. Only a solid breakout above 1.1550, backed by strong buying pressure, would challenge the prevailing bearish trend. For now, selling the pullbacks remains the more favorable strategy while price stays below major resistance.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD: Price Holds Triangle Support, Aiming for $4,120Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD is trading within a broad symmetrical triangle structure, where price continues to respect both the Triangle Resistance Line and the Triangle Support Line. After a strong bullish rally inside the Upward Channel earlier, Gold reached the Resistance Area around $4,120–$4,130, where a sharp reversal occurred. This zone has consistently acted as a major supply level, triggering multiple corrections in recent sessions. Following the breakout below the Upward Channel, XAUUSD entered a consolidation phase supported by the Support Zone near $4,000, which aligns with the lower triangle boundary. This level has proven to be a key reaction zone, showing strong buyer interest each time price tested it.
Currently, Gold attempted another bullish push after bouncing from the Triangle Support Line. Price is now approaching the Resistance Area once again, but buyers face strong selling pressure around $4,080–$4,120, which overlaps with both horizontal resistance and the descending triangle boundary. A break and close above the Triangle Resistance Line would confirm bullish continuation and likely lead to a retest of higher liquidity levels near $4,180–$4,200. As long as XAUUSD stays above the $4,000 Support Zone, the broader structure remains bullish. However, sustained failure to break the resistance area may result in another corrective move back toward the Triangle Support Line.
My Scenario & Strategy
From my perspective, as long as Gold holds above $4,000, the bullish bias remains intact.
My near-term target (TP1) is the $4,120 Resistance Area, with potential extension toward $4,160–$4,200 if buyers manage a clean breakout above the triangle resistance. I will look for long entries on pullbacks toward the Triangle Support Line or the Support Zone around $4,000–$4,020, especially if bullish rejection patterns appear.
If XAUUSD breaks below the $4,000 level, the bullish setup becomes invalid and deeper correction toward $3,960–$3,920 may follow. For now, price action favors a bullish continuation setup, provided support continues to hold.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTCUSD Channel Support Holds as Price Targets $85K PullbackHello traders! Let’s break down the current BTCUSD market structure. Bitcoin is trading inside a well-defined descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure confirms that the market is still moving within a broader bearish trend. Earlier, BTC created a large range phase on the left side of the chart, showing indecision before breaking down and starting the current downtrend. Each approach to the upper trendline (Resistance Line) resulted in a clear turnaround, proving that sellers continue to defend this zone aggressively. During the recent decline, BTC made multiple corrections inside the channel, but every upward move was short-lived and rejected by the descending resistance. A recent breakout attempt failed, and price quickly returned back into the channel, signaling that bullish momentum remains weak. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the Support Line of the descending channel near the $81,400–$82,000 zone. This level has acted as a key demand area within the trend. A short-term bounce from support is possible, and the chart shows a projected move toward TP1 near $85,000, which aligns with a minor internal resistance level. However, as long as BTC trades below the major Resistance Level around $94,000 and within the descending channel, the market maintains a bearish bias. Any bullish recovery is likely to be limited unless price can break above the channel and secure structure above $94,000. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
🧮 Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.
📉 Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550
📍 Primary cluster: around $250
📍 Support zone: $150 – $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
⚠️ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
📊 Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉
Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️
Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
EUR/USD – Potential Trade SetupI was expecting a price rebound from the 1.14938 level, and the pair did touch this area. However, the current trend is downward, so the only potential entry would be after breaking the previous highs to take liquidity before resuming the decline.
Currently, the available opportunity is around 1.15633, following the high taken at 1.15525. Traders should watch for confirmations before entering and manage risk carefully, as the overall momentum remains bearish.
NVDA Head and Shoulders- Dec Rate Cuts has changed setupNvidia’s setup has shifted. With the Fed signaling a likely rate cut on December 10th, the market will start baking that optimism into asset prices ahead of time. When monetary conditions ease, high-valuation tech often gets an extra tailwind, which means the expected head-and-shoulders pattern on NVDA may fail to play out cleanly. The chart might still roll over, but the macro backdrop now works against a decisive breakdown. Short positions here demand caution.
Original post
Nvidia’s bear case rests on one core idea: the stock price assumes a flawless, world-eating AI future, and markets almost never deliver on “perfection narratives.” NVDA trades at extreme valuation multiples for a hardware-driven, highly cyclical business. Those multiples only hold if AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding at its current breathtaking pace for years. But that demand is dangerously concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers who are spending now and rationalizing later. Michael Burry’s recent argument sharpens this point: he claims true end-demand for AI horsepower is vastly overstated, and that much of the current GPU frenzy is a self-reinforcing loop of capital, hype, and accounting gimmicks rather than broad, organic need. If boards pause to question real ROI, or if the circular funding loop breaks Nvidia’s revenue curve can flatten quickly, dragging the valuation down with it.
Competition, long dismissed by NVIDIA bulls, is another structural headwind. AMD is now shipping accelerators that hyperscalers are actually integrating, and every major cloud provider is building in-house silicon to reduce dependence on NVDA’s margins. Even if Nvidia maintains leadership, it doesn’t need to lose the crown to lose the multiple, slight shifts in workload allocation or a handful of missed design wins are enough to pressure margins. And Burry’s critique deepens this point: he argues Nvidia’s reported profitability is flattered by depreciation assumptions and massive stock-based compensation that buybacks have failed to offset, meaning the “true” economic profit is less bulletproof than headlines suggest. Add to that the fact that U.S. export controls have effectively erased the China data-center market, once 20–25% of revenues and expectations of a seamless global TAM look increasingly unrealistic.
Technically, NVDA is doing exactly what a euphoric, overowned stock does when gravity starts tugging: momentum is fading, the price is slipping under short-term moving averages, and reactions to spectacular earnings have been strangely sluggish. That’s often the early signature of distribution rather than accumulation. And this lines up directly with Burry’s broader thesis: when a narrative becomes crowded and reflexive, the slightest wobble triggers violent air pockets. NVDA has become the ultimate proxy for the AI boom, the most crowded long in the market, meaning it’s the first thing funds sell when risk appetite cools, and the last thing buyers chase during corrections.
Put simply, Nvidia is a phenomenal company priced as if nothing can ever go wrong, while Burry is arguing that much of what looks “perfect” is not what it seems. The bear case isn’t that Nvidia collapses. It’s that the AI boom normalizes, competition accelerates, accounting realities catch up, margins slip toward something earthbound, and investors recalibrate how much they’re willing to pay. In that world, NVDA doesn’t need bad news to fall. It only needs the news to arrive slightly less euphoric than the fantasies currently baked into the price.
#NVDA #Bearish #HeadandShoulders #MichaelBurry
LINK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 1D📊
1. MARKET STRUCTURE
Long-term trend
The price is currently approaching this line, but has not yet tested it directly.
This is a key support level for the entire LINK market.
2. SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE
Demand Zone — $9.6 – $4.8
The large red area. This is
a historical accumulation zone,
an area where LINK has been repeatedly defended,
an area to which the price has returned with each major dump.
Supply Zone — $15 – $20
The green area from which:
the price has been rejected repeatedly,
this is the selling wall from 2021,
a key target for bulls after the rebound.
3. CRITICAL LEVELS
Very important support
Type Level Description
Trendline ~11.5–12.2 USD We are very close to a test.
Horizontal 9.63 USD First major historical support.
Horizontal 4.84 USD Final low (strongest demand).
If the trendline breaks, the → ** LINK will almost certainly fall to 9.63**, and if that breaks too, → 4.8 USD is very likely.
4. MOMENTUM – STOCH RSI
On the Stoch RSI chart:
is extremely oversold,
similar to previous lows (2023, 2024),
signaling the possibility of a rebound within a few days/weeks.
5. PRICE SCENARIOS
🟢 BULLISH (bounce)
Condition: Maintaining the trendline
Expected movements:
Bounce around 11.5–12.5
Target 1: USD 15
Target 2: USD 18–20
Possible breakout → USD 22–24
This scenario is realistic if Bitcoin doesn't make another strong dump.
🔴 BEARISH (falling)
Condition: Breakout of the trendline with a daily candle below ~11.5
Expected movements:
A quick drop to USD 9.63
This could result in:
a bounce to ~12
or a continuation of the decline
If 9.63 falls → a practically certain target of USD 4.8
This level represents a significant historical accumulation and will not fall without a fight.
➤ Price is currently hanging by a thread.
The trendline is one of the most important support levels on the LINK chart.
Momentum is oversold → signal for a short squeeze/bounce.
But the local structure remains bearish.
➤ If the trendline holds → a thick long swing.
➤ If it collapses → we fall to 9.63 and possibly 4.8.






















