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Bitcoin All Time High Drawdown - Bottom nowhere in sight?We revisit the Bitcoin All Time High Drawdown chart originally published in March 2023. The core thesis of the BTC_ATHDRAWDOWN chart remains intact: each subsequent market cycle has exhibited a diminishing drawdown from its prior All-Time High, with generational cycle bottoms resting squarely on a discernible upward-sloping diagonal support (the 'Buy' line). The 2022-2023 bear market bottomed perfectly on this structural trendline, confirming the '4 degree slope upwards' trend. Current Cycle Progress: The Sawtooth Fractal Following the decisive breakthrough of the 2021 All-Time High, price action has entered an unprecedented and structurally complex phase. We are currently witnessing a prolonged high-frequency sawtooth waveform of continuous All-Time Highs. This action represents the longest sawtooth fractal near ATH of any cycle prior. This is a stark deviation from the swift, parabolic ascents that characterized previous blow-off tops: Contrasting the 2017 Pattern: The 2017 bull run culminated in a sharp, almost vertical run-up to $20,000, immediately followed by a steep and rapid crash. That was a classic V-top. The 2024/2025 Pattern: Instead of a quick V-top, the market is engaged in an extended, messy distribution/consolidation phase right at the very peak. The continuous setting of new, marginal ATHs followed by sharp, shallow pullbacks creates a dense, high-frequency signal in the ATH Drawdown chart. This structural evolution—a prolonged struggle to hold and marginally exceed previous peaks—suggests that the market is either building a much larger, more resilient base for an extended super-cycle, or undergoing a slow, drawn-out distribution that fundamentally alters the historical BTC cycle cadence. This is not financial advice, and presented merely as conjectural musing.
B
by D4NKM4CH1N3
14
The Earnings Playbook: How to Navigate Each Quarter Like a ProTraders are in the heat of the earnings season and euphoria is sweeping every corner of the market. The charts twitch, traders stop talking about the Fed for five minutes ( not this week, though ), and online forums turn into a parade of watch-me-trade sessions. It’s that glorious stretch when companies pop open the books and reveal what’s really been happening behind the scenes. For professional investors, it’s data heaven. For retail traders, it’s emotional cardio. Stocks can rise 20% on a single upbeat forecast — or plummet before your coffee cools. The trick isn’t just to survive it. It’s to navigate it like a pro. 💼 Know the Seasons (and the Mood Swings) Earnings season comes four times a year — January, April, July, and October — and each has its own flavor. Q1 (April): That’s the hangover quarter. Holiday sales meet new-year cost cuts. Traders recalibrate expectations and reality collides with ambition. Q2 (July): The mid-year checkup. CEOs brag about “momentum,” analysts start sharpening their red pencils. Markets get twitchy. Q3 (October): The credibility test. Guidance revisions and cautious tones dominate. If the year’s been good, this is where the victory laps start. Q4 (January): The scoreboard reveal. Everyone tallies their annual wins and losses, and traders begin to bet on who carries the next year’s momentum. Each cycle has a similar rhythm: hype, reaction, digestion, and speculation. Think of it like a four-act play. 📊 Mind the Gap One thing to keep in mind whenever you find yourself in the earnings bonanza: the actual numbers matter less than the narrative. ( Looking at you, Oracle NYSE:ORCL ) A company can beat on revenue, miss on profit, and still rally — if the CEO sells a compelling story about the next quarter. Conversely, it can post record earnings and tank because analysts wanted even more. The pros know to look beyond the headline EPS. They dig into guidance, margins, and segment performance. Is revenue growing because of genuine demand, or just creative accounting? Are margins improving, or did the company quietly cut R&D? Markets don’t price what’s happened — they price what’s next. That’s especially true for growth stocks like t echnology companies . 🎯 Don’t Chase the Knee-Jerk Every earnings season has its share of instant overreactions — the “up 10% at open, down 8% by lunch” kind of chaos. That’s when seasoned traders sit back and let volatility do the heavy lifting. Smart money avoids buying into the frenzy or shorting into despair. Instead, they wait for the second move — when dust settles, algorithms calm down, and humans return to their desks. 🧠 Build Your Own Playbook To trade earnings season like a pro, you need a plan. Here’s how the veterans prep: Start early. Check the earnings calendar and mark high-impact names in your portfolio or watchlist. Study the setup. Look at how the stock’s performed heading into earnings. A big pre-report rally can mean expectations are too high. Focus on guidance. Earnings beats are old news — future commentary moves markets. Use position sizing. Never bet the farm on one report. Even the best setups can go sideways. Don’t forget the macro. Rate cuts, inflation prints, or a stray tweet from the US President can overshadow the best earnings beat. 🕹️ The Big Picture: Earnings as Market GPS Earnings season is the market’s health check because it tells you which sectors are thriving, which are limping, and how CEOs feel about the future (watch the language: “headwinds” and “volatility” are polite ways of saying buckle up). Taken together, earnings trends shape the broader narrative — from interest rate expectations to sector rotations. In other words, earnings season is where short-term trading meets long-term investing. Now go and prepare for the next batch of earnings — Big Tech is on deck this week with Apple NASDAQ:AAPL and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN reporting today. Off to you : What’s your strategy this earnings season? Buying the hype or waiting to buy the dip? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
8
XAGUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on Silver ? Silver entered a corrective phase following its recent rally and is now trading below the resistance zone and the broken trendline. This structure suggests weakening bullish momentum and a potential continuation to the downside once the pullback completes. We expect price to complete a pullback toward the broken zone and then resume its downward movement toward the identified support levels. As long as silver remains below the resistance and trendline, the bearish bias stays valid. A confirmed break and close above resistance would invalidate this scenario. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by HAMED_AZ
10
Trading Bots: The Future of the Markets?Let’s be real, the idea of a trading bot sounds like the holy grail. Set it up, go to bed, and wake up to profit. If only it were that simple. Most bots don’t fail because of bad code, they fail because of bad logic. A bot is only as good as the rules you give it. What a Trading Bot Actually Does A bot doesn’t predict the market, it reacts to it. It follows a defined strategy: Buy when X happens, sell when Y is confirmed, cut losses if price breaks Z. That’s all. No fear. No greed. No “maybe I’ll wait for one more candle.” The power of bots isn’t in magic,it’s in consistency. They do what most traders can’t: follow the plan exactly as written, every single time. Why Most Bots Fail The truth? Most traders plug in random bots they find online without understanding what’s inside. They win a few trades, feel invincible… and then lose it all when volatility spikes. The reason isn’t the bot, it’s the lack of testing and understanding. If you don’t know your system’s weak spots, you’ll eventually find them the hard way. That’s why backtesting matters. Backtesting: Your First Line of Defense Backtesting shows how your logic performs over hundreds of trades — across bull, bear, and sideways markets. It reveals your system’s strengths, weaknesses, and drawdowns before you risk a dollar. A good backtest should tell you: Your average win rate and risk/reward ratio. How your system handles volatility. How often it hits consecutive losses. Whether your edge actually holds over time. If your bot looks good in backtests and performs similarly in live conditions — you’re onto something real. *Example of one of our indicator How Bots Can Enhance Your Trading You don’t have to hand everything over to automation. In fact, many great traders use bots to handle the mechanical side, while keeping the decision-making human. Here are a few examples: Trade Execution: Let the bot enter trades instantly after your setup triggers. Risk Management: Bots can move stop-losses, take partial profits, or scale positions automatically. Signal Filtering: Use automation to scan hundreds of pairs and alert you only when conditions align. Backtesting Sandbox: Test new ideas safely with data before deploying them live. Bots don’t replace traders, they multiply efficiency. They free your mind from execution so you can focus on refinement. The Real Lesson A trading bot isn’t a shortcut. It’s a mirror, it reflects your discipline, your rules, and your logic. If your plan is solid, a bot will make it unstoppable. If your plan is weak, it’ll just lose money faster. Automation doesn’t fix bad habits, it exposes them. So learn the logic, test it hard, then let the system do what humans struggle with most: follow the plan.
Education
by Green_Squad
7
MAVIA — Attractive Retracement Zone for Potential ReversalMAVIAUSDT.P is currently sitting within a key retracement zone after a sharp decline from its recent high around 0.26. This area (around 0.10–0.11) coincides with a strong demand zone where buyers previously showed interest, making it a potential accumulation point for a technical rebound. If MAVIA can maintain support above this region, the next potential upside targets lie around 0.1259, 0.1451, 0.1674, and 0.2200, as marked on the chart. A clean bounce with volume confirmation could trigger a short-term recovery toward these levels. However, a breakdown below 0.098 would invalidate the bullish setup and may lead to further downside extension.
Long
by AmateurxTrader
2
Gold 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis(Nuclear testing Resumed)Gold appears to be setting up for another potential short opportunity. Despite yesterday’s rate-cut announcement, price action showed limited bullish momentum, even after Chair Powell signaled the likelihood of an additional cut in December. This lack of upside response suggests continued bearish sentiment. Additionally, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Reports indicate former President Trump may push to resume nuclear testing, in response to President Putin’s recent strategic posturing and threats involving advanced weapons systems. While such developments typically support safe-haven assets, gold has yet to reflect meaningful bullish follow-through following these headlines. Overall, current structural behavior on the 4-hour chart continues to favor bearish movement unless a significant shift in fundamentals or market sentiment emerges
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Akhilrajfx
2
At the moment, D1 and H4 are synchronized — bearish bias. Target Analysis at 09:00 (UTC +2) At the moment, D1 and H4 are synchronized — bearish bias. Target: D1 Fractal. The continuation of the bearish structure looks logical, but there’s a caveat. The W1 IMB has been mitigated, and on D1 a lot of liquidity has already been taken. Considering the aggressive rally since August and the current correction on W1, there’s a high probability that a bullish setup may start forming from the current price level. However, we have a problematic zone — FTA / D1 IMB. For confident longs, the price needs to secure a close above this zone. Until that happens, the short scenario remains valid. For today: There’s an H4 bearish BPR, from which we can expect confirmation for a move lower; inside it there’s an AH, which could be a potential entry point. Asian session narrative: it swept its own liquidity and built a bullish sentiment. The upward move looks strong, so to confirm a short we need bearish confirmation on H1, since the long may still continue. A local long from the H1 IMB toward AH is possible if the zone gets tested and AH remains intact. If the price closes above PDH, the bearish scenario will start to lose strength — we’ll need to wait for more information. Every zone I’ve marked requires additional confirmations on lower timeframes (LTF). Concept: Smart Money
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DK2_fx
1
ETH Weekly Setup: Confluent Support Zone - $3440–Bounce Incoming📈 ETH/USDT – Weekly Timeframe Bullish Confluence Multiple technical factors aligning for a potential bounce in Ethereum: ✅ Triangle Breakout + Retest – Price retesting the upper trendline of a multi-month symmetrical triangle after a clean breakout. Classic continuation setup. ✅ Fibonacci .618 Support – The golden ratio level (~$3400–$3500 zone) has historically acted as strong dynamic support. Bounces from .618 are high-probability in trending markets. ✅ RSI at 50 Support & Retest – Weekly RSI holding the midline (50) as support. This level often marks the transition from correction to resumption of uptrend. ✅ Higher High Structure Intact – Weekly timeframe still printing higher highs. As long as $3240 holds on close, macro uptrend remains valid. ✅ Triple Bottom Formation – Price has tested ~$3440 three times in recent weeks. Triple bottoms at key levels often precede strong reversals. 🎯 Expected Move: Bounce toward prior swing high (~$4000–$4200) if support holds. ⚠️ Invalidation: Weekly close below $3240 – would break triple bottom neckline and shift bias to bearish. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. #ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
Long
by xcrypto_comm
1
Bitcoin next hours can bring massive dump or Pump!!!The upcoming trading session is critical for Bitcoin as price approaches the significant $116,000 resistance zone. We are observing a notable increase in trading volume, which often serves as a precursor to a decisive price movement. This volume surge ahead of a key level increases the probability of a bullish resolution. Our primary scenario anticipates a potential breakout. A confirmed daily close above $116,000, supported by sustained high volume, would validate this breakout and could initiate a strong bullish impulse. In alignment with this thesis, we have strategically placed a buy-stop order above the $116,000 resistance. This order will only activate upon a valid and confirmed breakout, ensuring we are positioned for a potential continuation upward. Conversely, as part of robust risk management, we must acknowledge the alternative scenario. Should the $116,000 resistance hold and provoke a bearish rejection, a breakdown below the $113,000 support level would become the expected outcome. This would signal a failure of the bullish attempt and likely trigger a short-term corrective move. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
10
Ethereum Moves with The Business Cycle and Small Cap StocksThere's still hope for Ethereum and Altcoins into 2026 Why Altcoins Never Caught the Bull: The Missing Piece in the Crypto Cycle Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 (SPY) have long proven their close relationship with M2 money supply — when liquidity expands, they rise. But Ethereum and the broader altcoin market play by a slightly different rulebook. They don’t just need liquidity… they need optimism. Specifically, expanding small-cap stocks and a strong business sentiment environment. Higher-risk assets — from growth stocks to altcoins — thrive when the economy believes in itself. And throughout this entire crypto cycle, that optimism never fully materialized. Despite strong narratives, legal wins, and technological progress, altcoin expansions never sustained. Why? Because the business cycle is the true king of risk-taking. 🧭 Where to Watch: IWM & PMI Two of the best gauges for this optimism are: IWM (Russell 2000) – tracks small-cap stocks and risk appetite ISM PMI – measures manufacturing activity and future order expectations When the PMI is above 52, the economy is in expansion mode — and that’s historically when IWM hits new highs. Interestingly, Ethereum has mirrored IWM’s trend, even showing outperformance when IWM pushes into all-time highs. That means ETH’s bullish potential could be closely tied to the next leg of small-cap and business expansion. 💡 The Takeaway In the past, money supply (M2) and business optimism rose together. Now, they’ve decoupled — giving us a clearer way to separate which catalyst drives which asset. So, the big question: 👉 If business sentiment improves in 2026… does Ethereum finally get its real bull run? Only time — and the next PMI reading — will tell.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by SnarkyPuppy
1
When Winning Feels UnsafeNOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence. You’re in profit. The trade’s working. Your system’s doing exactly what it should. But instead of ease, something tightens. A flicker of doubt. You can hear that inner voice: “Don’t mess this up. You wouldn’t want to give this back now would you? How much is enough anyway?” You scan the chart again. Check your unrealized PnL. Move the stop closer. Start managing… what doesn’t need managing. Here’s what’s really happening: Your subconscious is remembering what happened the last time you saw success… The time you relaxed and it reversed. The time you felt proud and someone cut you down. The time you won and it didn’t last. So even when the market moves in your favour, part of you braces. Waiting for the other shoe to drop. So that voice saying, don’t mess this up - is actually a memory trying to protect you. And in so doing, never really lets you feel safe The point here is that your work as a trader is to be in the here and now. Not in the past. Be cognisant to the cues of your memory and body that don’t work in your favour. So when you notice tension rising, Take one slow breath. Feel your feet on the floor. And repeat. ‘Right here, right now’. And then … Follow your trade plan. Stay true to your trading plan. Manage your risk And let the market do what it does.
Education
by soda8888
9
DXY — The Dollar Game That Moves Everything...Hello Traders 🐺 Most traders keep watching Bitcoin, Gold, and the stock market... but everything starts with the Dollar — the DXY. DXY measures the strength of the US Dollar against major currencies (mostly the Euro, Yen, and Pound). When DXY goes up, the Dollar is stronger. When it goes down, the Dollar weakens. Now here’s the fun part 👇 | Asset | When DXY goes UP | When DXY goes DOWN | 🪙 Gold | Usually drops (USD stronger) | Usually rises | 💰 Bitcoin | Liquidity dries up → often drops | Liquidity returns → often rallies | 📈 Stocks | Exporters get hurt | Risk-on mood, often bullish | 🛢 Oil | Demand cools | Prices rise with weaker USD So yeah — DXY isn’t “just another chart.” It’s the heartbeat of global liquidity. ⚙️ What’s happening right now Gold is at record highs. Bitcoin’s flying near extreme levels. Stocks are still holding up. Meanwhile, DXY is sitting right on a major monthly trendline support — a level that’s held multiple times in the past. Most traders expect the Dollar to keep weakening after the Fed’s recent 0.25% rate cut... but history often plays a different game. 📉 The pattern nobody talks about Every time the US entered a recession, the Dollar actually got stronger, even while the Fed was cutting rates. Why? Because when fear hits, everyone runs to cash and US Treasuries. The Dollar becomes the world’s safe haven. So lower rates don’t always mean a weak dollar — sometimes they’re the first warning that the system’s under stress, and that’s exactly when DXY makes its comeback. 🇺🇸 Politics, China, and the bigger picture Trump’s talking about another trade war with China. China’s still trying to strengthen the Yuan and reduce its dependence on USD. But the US can’t really afford a weak dollar right now — because a weaker USD means more imported inflation, and with America’s massive debt and deficits, they need global demand for US Treasuries. That only happens if the Dollar stays relatively strong. 🧭 My personal take The market’s way too confident that “the Dollar is done.” But both the chart and the history say otherwise. DXY is testing a massive monthly trendline support while risk assets are near all-time highs. That’s a setup I don’t want to ignore. If DXY bounces from here, we could see a wave of correction across Gold, Bitcoin, and even stocks. 💡 Everyone’s positioned for a weak Dollar. History and the chart both say — it might surprise them again. Also don't forgot our golden rule : 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable. 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
TVC:DXYLong
by Kiu_Coin
How to enter a successful futures tradeDrop everything and let me show you how to enter a successful long position with the lowest possible risk. You need to understand that the market maker usually acts against us at major support areas on the chart — like the 100 EMA, 0.618 Fibonacci level, or a trendline. To make this clearer, let’s take TAO as an example and I’ll explain why. TAO has strong momentum and a large market cap, so don’t apply what I’m about to say to meme coins, for example. Now let’s go step by step on how to enter a futures position after choosing the coin 👇 1. First, wait for a bullish pattern to form — like a triangle — and for the coin to break it upwards with increasing long momentum. 2. The price will then retest the trendline, encouraging people to enter with larger positions, and those who missed the first breakout will likely place buy orders at the retest zone. 3. Then, the market surprises them — it drops back inside the triangle, giving a small bounce at the lower side. 4. But it doesn’t stop there — it continues dropping, breaking below the triangle and closing below the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart. This makes you panic and close your long position. Others start entering shorts thinking it’s a real breakdown. 5. That’s when the market reverses sharply upward, trapping short traders in losses, while long traders who exited too early also lose. In the end, only those who placed buy orders slightly below the strong support level (not directly on it, like under the 100 EMA) — and of course the market maker — end up winning. So basically, the long traders lose, the short traders lose, and only a small percentage of smart traders and the market maker win. Small things to pay attention to 👇 -Your entry point should be slightly below the support, not too far below it. (That support could be the 100 EMA, below the triangle pattern, or the 0.618 Fibonacci level, as we mentioned.) -Don’t use high leverage — x5 should be your maximum. -Place your stop loss 5% below your entry zone, which equals about 25% loss if you’re using x5 leverage. And with that, you’ve got yourself a long setup with over a 90% success rate, and you can apply the same logic in reverse when taking a short position. Best Regards: Ceciliones🎯
Education
by ceciliones
4
The Value of Comparing Futures and CFD DataComparing futures and CFD (Contract for Difference) data is critical for serious traders, especially when executing and validating trades like shorts. Futures Data: Why Compare Futures and CFD Data? True Market Sentiment: Futures contracts (such as the 6E - Euro FX futures) are traded on centralized exchanges, reflecting authentic supply, demand, institutional volume, and order flow. CFDs, on the other hand, are broker-issued products that mirror price but may not fully represent actual market transactions or sentiment. Volume Profile Analysis: Futures charts (e.g., shown in 6E1 image) provide reliable volume by price (VBP) and order flow, helping traders pinpoint genuine support/resistance, point of control, and liquidity zones. CFD platforms often lack transparent volume data. Validating Signals: If both CFD (EURUSD) and futures (6EZ2025) show confluence such as downside imbalances, sell stops being triggered, and volume confirming breakouts the setup is reinforced and less likely to be a broker-induced anomaly. Avoiding Broker Manipulation: CFDs may show price spikes or "stop hunts" not reflected in the real futures market, leading to false signals. Comparing both datasets helps filter out noise and manipulation. Why the Short Trade is Valid Order Flow Confirmation: Both charts highlight heavy sell-side activity. The futures chart shows a breakdown below key value areas with volume shifting lower, confirming institutional selling and bearish momentum. Imbalance and Sell Stops: On the EURUSD CFD chart, a clear delta imbalance and a cascade of sell stops below a key level indicate aggressive shorting and stop-loss liquidity being absorbed, reinforcing bearish bias. Confluence Across Markets: The simultaneous confirmation futures breaking down with volume, CFD reflecting price action and order flow provides confidence in the short setup's validity. Such dual confirmation reduces risk and signals a higher likelihood of follow-through. In summary: Comparing CFD price action with real futures order flow and volume enables traders to validate setups, spot manipulation, and execute trades with increased conviction. For this short trade, the confluence across both datasets confirms genuine sell-side momentum and a valid trading opportunity.
Short
by FervTrades
1
Gold Consolidating chance for Growth Gold prices are currently consolidating ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The fundamental background remains mixed — with uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and global trade developments. During the second half of the European session and into early U.S. trading, the market may enter a phase of stagnation. A soft or dovish tone from the Fed could trigger renewed bullish momentum, while progress in trade negotiations or a hawkish surprise from the Fed may extend the ongoing correction. If the bulls manage to defend support above 4000, this level could act as a strong base, potentially pushing prices toward the 4054–4078 range in the short term. A break below this key zone, however, would likely invite further downside pressure. You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
8
Trading is the Game of ProbabilitiesMost traders start with one simple goal ➜ to be right all the time 🔲Right about the trend. 🔲Right about the breakout. 🔲Right about the trade. But here’s the truth - 'the market doesn’t care who’s right'. ↳ Even the best analysis fails sometimes. ↳ Even the weakest setup works sometimes. Because trading isn’t a test of accuracy, it’s a test of managing what is more probable. ↳ Profitable traders don’t chase perfection. ↳ They focus on risk, reward, and consistency. We can be wrong 6 times out of 10... And still make money if our winners are bigger than our losers. ↳ Trading success is not about predicting. ↳ It’s about positioning and managing our trade. We manage risk when the odds are low. We maximize reward when the odds are high. The shift happens when we stop trying to be right... and start thinking in probabilities. That’s when we stop gambling and start profitable trading. Are you playing casino or managing your risk?
Education
by Bravetotrade