NAS - STRATEGY WHEN MARKET OPENTeam, today we done well 5/5 trades for NAS100.
Here is a safe plan.
Plan we are setting enter LONG position at 24408-25 - AS THE MARKET open, it will be very fast volatile.
STOP LOSS at 24365
Target at 24556-24586
Target 2 at 24615-24663
If it every hit our STOP LOSS, it will likely we can catch the NICE bottom.
I will be setting LONG at 24208-24232
STOP LOSS at 24115
NOW, with this, you can HOLD for big swing
Target 1 at 24276-22312 - Take 50% partial bring stop loss to BREAK EVEN
Target 2 at 24328-24382 - Take another 30% partial
Target 3 at 24415-24536 - you can booked last one with BIG SMILE
LETS GO
Beyond Technical Analysis
GOLD CPI TODAYHi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader.
I study Gold since 2019.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work.
Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.
Live today at 14:00 CET (Rome time).
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Yesterday’s daily close is not encouraging.
We had a strong rejection candle from the previous daily shift level, as shown on the chart.
Price is also positioned below the 5,000 handle, which is significant.
Personally, I’m considering shorts today.
But we have CPI, so it’s better to wait for the release and then react accordingly.
This is the current context, and I’ll explain how I plan to position myself once the data is out.
Today’s CPI is the main driver.
The market expects cooling inflation (lower YoY vs prior), but positioning is asymmetric:
Downside surprise → renewed bullish momentum.
Upside surprise → potential retracement toward structural support.
CPI will set the next directional move.
The Federal Reserve remains data-dependent.
The inflation path is key for rate expectations.
If CPI confirms further cooling:
real yields down → gold higher.
- US CPI – Scenario
--> Hot CPI
(≥0.4% MoM and/or Core ≥0.4% | YoY above 2.5%)
Disinflation stalls.
Rate cuts get pushed back.
Yields rise, USD strengthens.
-Gold → bearish pressure
-USD → bullish impulse on hawkish repricing
---> Soft CPI
(≤0.2% MoM and/or Core below expectations | YoY ≤2.4%)
Disinflation accelerates.
Markets price earlier cuts.
Yields fall, USD weakens.
-Gold → bullish pressure
-USD → weakness
See you live at 14:00.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
I focus on the 14:30 news and the New York open at 15:30.
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything.
📬 If you have any questions, message me. I’ll reply.
🔍 NEXT APPOINTMENTS 🔍
As usual, we’ll be live at 14:00 to follow the market in real time.
In the meantime, have a good day.
-GOOD TRADING
-MANAGE RISK
-BE PATIENT
The Elephant Jungle 2/13/26 Page 3Now let’s drop down to the 1D timeframe. This is where things start to get interesting.
Last time I talked about the idea of the Bulls allowing the Bears to retrace into the golden/silver pocket (the 681 and 786 zones) for a clean and healthy bounce. That scenario made sense structurally and a lot of traders were patiently waiting for it.
But price does not owe anyone a perfect entry.
What we are seeing now is the possibility that the Bulls are changing their mind. Instead of giving a textbook pullback they may be front running the golden pocket entirely. Or this could simply be a controlled tug on the line. The kind a fisherman uses to make the bait jiggle just enough to get the Bears to bite early.
Either way this is where discipline matters. Because if this move holds the 1D candle is already showing strength. It looks bullish. It looks intentional. Like it woke up this morning drank a cup of Folgers and chased it with a shot of wheatgrass.
And if this does turn out to be a front run the Fibonacci traders are going to be heated. But that is the lesson. The Jungle does not reward expectations. It rewards those who can adapt when price reveals its hand.
Cpi to come in Hot @2.5% bears to drive Gold @4,660 zone As we await the Cpi data currently, the Price is sitting under supply.
Momentum failed at 5,100.
Technically, this leans slightly bearish going into CPI.
But here’s the danger:
Everyone sees that 4,660 as liquidity. Everyone sees the downside magnet.
When positioning gets too obvious, CPI can squeeze the other way first.
What I’d Watch Immediately After Release
Does 4,940 hold on the first reaction?
Do we get a strong 4H reclaim above 4,980?
Or do we close below 4,920 with momentum?
Because if 4,920 breaks cleanly,
Then the path to 4,800 opens quickly. Bigger Picture TruthGold has already failed at 5,100
Already broken prior higher low, Printed lower high, That means bulls must prove themselves.
My Straight Read
If CPI comes in exactly at 0.3%?
We could get a whipsaw.Because neutral data often means, Liquidity hunt first… direction second.
If CPI is hot? 2.5% hotter
Probability favours downside toward 4,800–4,660.
If CPI is soft?
Gold needs to break and hold above 5,000 to regain control.
My take is that CPI will be hotter than expected; thus, unmitigated liquidity will be a major magnet for the precious metal @4,660.
BTCUSDT: Structure Break & Bearish Channel ContinuationHi!
Bitcoin has shifted into a clear bearish market structure after breaking the long-term ascending trendline and losing the key horizontal support zone. Price is now trading inside a descending channel, confirming downside momentum.
The recent breakdown below the 68K support area turned previous support into resistance, increasing the probability of continuation toward lower liquidity zones.
Market Structure
Broken ascending macro trendline
Lost major horizontal support
Clean rejection from broken support → resistance flip
Price respecting bearish channel boundaries
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias)
If the price continues to respect the channel resistance, further downside is likely.
Target Zones:
Target 1: 60,000 – 58,000
Target 2: 55,000 – 53,500
Important Context – Monthly Support
This setup comes with reduced statistical confidence because the price is approaching a higher timeframe (monthly) support region.
That means:
Downside continuation is possible
But sharp bounces can happen unexpectedly
Overall win rate of this bearish continuation idea could be lower than usual due to higher timeframe demand presence
The Elephant Jungle 2/13/26 Page 2Now that we zoomed in a notch the picture gets a lot clearer. The 1W Internal Demand Range is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. This is the zone that has been quietly supporting the Bulls while the noise above tries to shake confidence.
If the Bears manage to push through that 1W level and continue pressing through the remainder of the 1M Demand Range there is still work to be done. Sitting below is a fresh 1W Internal Demand Range around 49k. That level is not just decoration. It is real structure and it stands in the way of any clean or easy move down toward 30k. There is no straight shot here no matter how loud the fear gets.
And honestly it is hard to believe the Bulls would put in this much effort all week just to roll over without at least forcing a back test of the Macro Range Low. That kind of move would make sense. It would be earned. It would be part of the process. Folding here without a fight would not.
So come on Bulls. Dig a little deeper. Show the Jungle that this move has heart behind it. Show that this is more than just survival. Get on up and handle your business. The Jungle is watching.
BTC: another Drop??????Hi everyone!
After a strong rally, BTC formed a rising wedge pattern and has now broken to the downside. Price is currently sitting at a very important support zone, which could be difficult to break.
🔴For now, it’s better to stay patient and wait for a clear breakdown below the $74,400 support level, or a breakdown followed by a retest/retracement, before considering any short positions.
🎯If this support fails, the potential downside target would be around $63,500.
Gold Technical Outlook (XAUUSD)Hi!
Gold is still holding above its ascending trendline, and this structure has not been broken yet. After a sharp decline from the $5600 area, price rebounded strongly from the trendline and the key flip zone highlighted in blue.
The first supply/demand area around $4807 has now been fully engulfed, which strengthens the bullish case. A long position can be considered after a minor retracement, with an upside target near $5104.
Gold May Correct Below the 5000 Level📊 Market Overview:
Gold is under corrective pressure after breaking below the psychological 5000 USD/oz level, as the USD remains strong and US bond yields stay elevated. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data and Fed policy expectations, leading to short-term profit-taking in gold.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 5005 – 5015 / 5050 – 5060
• Nearest Support: 4920 / 4980
• EMA: Price is trading below EMA 09 → short-term bearish bias.
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Selling pressure increased after the breakdown below 5000. Decreasing volume suggests a potential technical pullback before the main trend continues. RSI is moving down from overbought territory, and bearish momentum still dominates.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may decline in the short term if it fails to reclaim the 5000 level, but a technical rebound toward resistance zones is still possible before a deeper correction.
________________________________________
💡 Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 5057 – 5060
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips
❌ SL: 5064
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 4920 – 4917
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips
❌ SL: 4913
The Elephant Jungle 2/13/26 Page 1Well it is Friday. Not just any Friday. It is Friday the 13th.
Now the question the Jungle is quietly asking is what does that mean for the markets.
As of right now the Bulls are holding the line on the 1M Demand Range and they are attempting to work their way back into the Macro Range. It has been a long week. Bulls and Bears went head to head day after day and credit where it is due the Bulls did not fold. They absorbed pressure and stayed standing.
But today is the real test.
Does the symbolism of the day shake the Bulls confidence. Will the support be pulled from under them like a loose Jenga block. Or do the Bulls stay disciplined and prove that price does not care about superstition only structure and liquidity.
Then there is always the wildcard. Does Trump wake up and say something wild that sends the markets into a quick flush. Or does the market pump and turn the table around on the Bears.
Now that would be Bad News for the Bears but good news for those Hodling Bitty while everyone else is distracted by headlines and fear.
Instead of guessing let’s slow it down and zoom in. Let’s go to the 1W timeframe and see what is actually happening beneath the noise. Because the Jungle does not reward emotion. It rewards patience clarity and respect for the range.
USNAS100 | CPI Data in Focus After Sharp DropUSNAS100 | CPI Data in Focus After 650-Point Drop
The Nasdaq dropped around 650 points, keeping the broader structure bearish as markets now shift attention to the U.S. CPI release, a key catalyst that could drive volatility across equities.
Technical Outlook
The index remains bearish while trading below 24785.
As long as price remains below this level, downside pressure is expected toward 24370, followed by 24180 and 23940.
Macro Trigger:
• CPI above 2.5% → bearish for indices
• CPI below 2.5% → bullish recovery scenario
Key Levels
• Pivot: 24780
• Support: 24370 – 24180 – 23940
• Resistance: 24960 – 25200
POL: ready for a rebound? key levels to watch in the coming daysPOL – tired of bleeding or just loading the spring for the next move? According to market sources, fresh headlines around the Polygon 2.0 migration and new incentives for builders lit up the ecosystem today, and intraday volume picked up right away. On the chart we’re sitting right on a chunky demand zone where buyers defended price several times already.
On the 4H, RSI bounced from oversold and is pushing above its signal line, while the visible range volume profile shows a fat node a bit higher, around the first red supply block. I’m leaning long from this green zone, aiming for a squeeze into the 0.103–0.11 area as late shorts get uncomfortable. I might be wrong, but this looks more like accumulation than a safe downtrend continuation. ✅
My base plan: hold longs while price stays above the lower edge of demand around 0.088 and watch for a clean 4H close above local resistance to confirm strength. If bulls fail and we lose that 0.088 support, I step aside and let it drift toward deeper liquidity below 0.085. Until then, I treat dips into the green zone as potential reload spots, scaling out near the first red supply blocks.
Report 13/2/26Macro & Geopolitical Report
Report Summary
This report assesses the market and geopolitical implications of Iran’s crackdown expanding from street dissent into the political class, with the arrest of senior reformist figures and the further hollowing-out of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s governing coalition. The core thesis is that this is an internal-stability shock that matters externally because it narrows Tehran’s room for negotiated compromise while raising the probability of erratic escalation behavior. In markets, this does not always translate into an immediate “war premium” bid; instead it often produces a risk-distribution widening—higher volatility, faster rotations, and a persistent premium in energy hedges—especially while U.S.–Iran talks continue and U.S. force posture remains elevated.
What happened and why it matters now
Iran’s theocratic leadership has extended repression beyond protesters and civil society into the reformist movement, arresting at least seven reformist figures including the leader of the Reformist Front, amid deepening fractures triggered by the regime’s handling of mass-casualty repression. The arrests follow reformists breaking publicly with the state narrative around killings, and Iranian hardline institutions framing these insiders as part of a subversive ring aligned with foreign enemies—language that signals the regime is treating “internal dissent” as a national security threat rather than a political problem.
The most important macro implication is that the crackdown further erodes any moderating mechanism inside the Islamic Republic. The reporting describes Pezeshkian as increasingly isolated, with his power “gutted” and his presidency reduced to something ceremonial—an “ornate, visible and hollow” stage set. In parallel, the same coverage highlights the role of internet access as a battleground (Starlink versus VPNs, geolocation risk, and U.S. internal debates about funding), which matters because sustained protests and information warfare keep domestic instability “alive” even if external diplomacy proceeds.
Market reaction and positioning signal
The market tape around this newsflow is consistent with de-grossing rather than pure geopolitical hedging. The S&P 500 closed 6832.76 (-1.57%), while market pages also show high-level commodity and metals pricing that included Engelhard industrial gold at 5077 and other bullion proxies—useful as a sentiment read on precious metals in that session. The key inference is that when internal Iran risk rises but crude does not immediately spike, investors often reduce risk and raise cash rather than chase headline hedges—especially when uncertainty is about political trajectory and retaliation logic, not a confirmed kinetic event.
The positioning signal to watch is whether crude’s front end and gold regain a consistent bid in the days after a weak equity session. If equity weakness persists without a rebound in energy hedges, it suggests macro tightening/positioning stress is dominating. If equity weakness is paired with a firmer crude curve and stronger gold, it suggests the market is shifting toward pricing disruption probability, not just uncertainty.
Macro transmission mechanism
The dominant transmission channel is energy-tail risk into inflation-policy constraints. Iran escalation risk matters because it can propagate through the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows are systemically important. The U.S. EIA estimates that in 2024 oil flows through Hormuz averaged ~20 million barrels/day, roughly ~20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, with flows remaining relatively flat into early 2025. That chokepoint reality means the market can reprice inflation expectations quickly on even partial disruption risk (insurance premia, slower transit, harassment), tightening financial conditions and pressuring equity multiples.
A second channel is negotiation leverage and miscalculation risk. U.S.–Iran talks in Oman are ongoing amid deep agenda disputes (Washington pushing wider topics; Tehran insisting nuclear scope), and the existence of talks does not remove tail risk—it often increases two-way volatility because each headline can swing probabilities. The internal crackdown raises the risk that Iranian decision-making becomes more securitized, which historically reduces flexibility and increases the chance of “externalization” dynamics (provocations, proxy activations, maritime incidents) to consolidate control.
Political and fiscal implications
Internally, the crackdown signals that Tehran prioritizes regime cohesion over political legitimacy, widening the gap between society and state. That tends to increase the probability of repeated protest cycles and, critically, reduces the credibility of any negotiated “reset” because a regime relying on coercion is less able to sell concessions domestically.
Externally, Israel is explicitly emphasizing that any Iran deal must address nuclear, missiles, and proxies, which increases the difficulty of a clean diplomatic outcome and raises the odds of friction even if Washington pursues a narrower agreement. The U.S. political constraint remains inflation optics: if Middle East risk lifts crude materially, it becomes a domestic political issue and complicates policy flexibility. That creates an incentive for Washington to maintain coercive leverage while searching for a framework that caps energy tail risk—yet that same leverage can increase miscalculation probability.
Strategic forecast: base case and pivot points
The base case for the next 4–8 weeks is contained tension with intermittent volatility spikes. Iran continues repression at home while maintaining a negotiating track abroad; Israel signals red lines; and the U.S. maintains a posture that keeps military options credible. Under this regime, markets should expect range trading in crude with an embedded geopolitical floor, episodic equity drawdowns on headline risk, and a persistent bid for hedges when volatility compresses too far.
The upside scenario is a credible interim framework that reduces near-term escalation probability (even if incomplete). In that case, crude risk premium compresses first, equities stabilize, and gold can lag tactically as fear hedges are unwound. The downside scenario is a cascade: internal instability interacts with external confrontation (shipping incident, proxy escalation, misinterpreted signaling), which forces markets to rapidly reprice disruption probability. In that downside path, the Hormuz chokepoint math becomes decisive for crude and inflation expectations.
Asset impact section
XAUUSD (Gold)
Gold’s role here is “regime hedge.” Iran’s internal crackdown is not a one-day gold catalyst unless it increases the probability of external escalation or policy constraint. The more credible the disruption channel (Hormuz risk) and the more constrained central banks appear by inflation tails, the more durable gold’s bid becomes. If the market remains in a cash-raising phase, gold can be sold tactically as liquidity before it reasserts, which is consistent with episodes where risk comes from uncertainty and positioning rather than immediate physical disruption.
S&P 500
The S&P is primarily sensitive to whether Middle East risk tightens financial conditions through energy and rates. Without a crude spike, the index impact is more about risk premium and breadth: investors reduce exposure to cyclicals and high beta, rotate into quality and defensives, and price more downside convexity. The next key tell is whether equities stabilize on diplomacy headlines or remain fragile because the market interprets internal Iranian instability as reducing the probability of a durable diplomatic outcome.
Dow Jones
The Dow can show relative resilience if markets rotate toward cash-flow durability and industrial/defense exposures during geopolitical tension. However, if crude risk premium rises meaningfully, the Dow’s cyclical sensitivity can become a headwind through margin pressure and tighter conditions. Its relative performance therefore depends on whether the shock remains political/volatility-based or becomes an energy/inflation shock.
USDJPY
USDJPY will be two-factor: risk sentiment versus rate differentials. A geopolitical risk-off impulse often strengthens JPY via deleveraging and carry unwind, pushing USDJPY lower. But if the market’s dominant interpretation is “higher inflation tails → higher U.S. yields,” USDJPY can reverse higher quickly. The more the episode looks like an oil-inflation shock, the more whipsaw risk increases.
DXY
DXY tends to firm in acute stress because USD liquidity is the default hedge, especially if Europe is perceived as energy-vulnerable. If diplomacy becomes credible and volatility compresses, DXY can soften as risk appetite broadens. The durability of any USD bid will be determined by whether the market is pricing a short episode or a persistent rise in geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Crude Oil
Crude is the fulcrum. Iran’s internal repression matters insofar as it changes the probability of external escalation and the credibility of de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains the systemic constraint—~20 million b/d in 2024 per EIA—so even partial disruption probability can reprice the front end quickly. If crude stays contained despite worsening internal Iranian instability, it implies the market is leaning toward diplomacy and/or is relying on offsetting supply expectations; that can change abruptly if an operational marker appears.
Closing synthesis
Iran’s crackdown moving into the political class is a structural negative for internal moderation and therefore a structural positive for uncertainty premia. The market should treat this as a tail-risk amplifier rather than a linear “war now” signal: it increases the chance of miscalculation and reduces the probability that diplomacy produces a durable reset without further confrontation. The most important real-time indicators remain the front end of crude (risk premium), gold’s behavior versus real yields, and whether equity weakness is accompanied by classic hedges or by broad de-grossing into cash.
BTCUSDT 4H setup - Outlines a BULLISH continuation strategyThe idea anticipates a liquidity grab within the $0.618$ to $0.786$ Fibonacci discount zone ($62,500 – $64,600) to clear out early long positions before a trend reversal. Following this sweep, the plan projects an impulsive move upward, reclaiming the psychological $70,000$ level and targeting the $-0.382$ extension at approximately $76,936. The strategy utilizes tiered take-profits, seeking "full" target realization once the local high is cleared.
XAUUSD - H1 - SHORT1. As expected, the H4 resistance prevented further upside; no sell signal was issued due to uncertainty.
2. Price didn't reach the first support level and rebounded.
3. If an upward move is to occur, it will likely start from the lower zone.
4. On the H1 timeframe, the lowest-risk levels for both buy and sell entries have been identified.
Gold continues to fall - CPI newsRelated Information:!!! ( XAU / USD )
Here is a more financial-market–oriented paraphrase:
Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Wednesday prompted investors to dial back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as March. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has stabilized above a two-week low—contributing to the overnight pullback in gold prices.
That said, market participants continue to price in the likelihood of two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026. Moreover, softer-than-anticipated US Jobless Claims data released on Thursday has limited the upside in the US Dollar, preventing a more pronounced recovery.
personal opinion:!!!
Gold prices are consolidating below 4985, awaiting CPI news which is under selling pressure at the end of the week, and CPI and DXY data are recovering.
Important price zone to consider : !!!
Resistance zone point: 4985, 5040 zone
Support zone point : 4944 , 4890 zone
Follow us for the most accurate gold price trends.
GOLD Consolidation may test support levelsGold showed weakness yesterday, creating bearish momentum and extending its decline.
However, on Friday, gold rebounded from a nearly one-week low in the previous session. Investors are now waiting for key U.S. inflation data for fresh clues on the direction of interest rate cuts, especially after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Gold is currently showing price weakness if selling pressure continues, price may test support levels at 4902 to 4805 a break below 4902 could accelerate further downside momentum If price maintains bullish momentum and breaks above the upper resistance zone Gold may rebound toward 5010 / 5040 However, upside potential may be limited due to underlying weakness.
You may find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of luck buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
BTC Weekly Conclusion:For BTC price, it starts to decrease near 61 388 points, but one more retest there can push the price downside near 50k, above the 71 818 points price can increase near 89 000 points, but it can delay next week.
From fundamentals, new Fed chair expectations are manipulating the market now, crypto regulations are in the process now, they are not releasing the expected dates for accepting the law (Clarity Act), but CFTC increases the commission members with the crypto-experienced people, which makes the future more clear, this week inflation rate delay and it causes fear in the market.
ETH Weekly Conclusion:For the ETH price, it starts the decrease near 1806 points, and under 2113 points, the price is in danger. Above this point, there are two targets, the first is 2372 points and the second is 2728 points, but it can be delayed until next week. Under 1806 points price can decrease till 1500 points, but it will be dangerous for ETH.
S&P 500 Cools While VIX Awakens: What's the Market Pricing In?By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The U.S. market is entering a phase of heightened sensitivity and reduced complacency. The S&P 500 S&P 500, the primary benchmark for global equities, has shifted into a consolidation phase after months of sustained gains. At the same time, the VIX CBOE Volatility Index — commonly referred to as the “fear index” — is rebounding from historically low levels, reflecting an increase in institutional hedging activity.
This is not, at least for now, a panic-driven environment. Rather, it is a technical adjustment as the market recalibrates expectations around interest rates, economic growth, and corporate earnings.
Technical Analysis – S&P 500 (AT Ticker: USA500)
Institutional-Led Corrective Phase
From a structural standpoint, the primary trend remains bullish as long as the index holds above the 6,768.23 support level, a former consolidation area. The volume Point of Control (POC) is located near 6,647 points, acting as a key medium-term structural support.
The upper boundary of the current movement stands at 7,019.43 points, marking the recent high within this consolidation-distribution phase.
The latest session closed around 6,917.81 points, extending a four-day corrective sequence amid heightened sensitivity surrounding Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) expectations. The 6,932.30 level, previously used as an intraday reference, failed to break decisively, reinforcing short-term selling pressure. Pre-market activity continues to show bearish momentum.
Technical Indicators
RSI (14) near 43%, trending lower toward oversold territory, though not yet at extreme levels.
MACD in negative territory, confirming loss of bullish momentum.
Bearish crossover with price breaking below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages in recent sessions, signaling an active technical correction.
Price is currently trading around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest bullish impulse. If this level fails to hold, the next technical target lies at the 50% retracement, aligned with the upward impulse initiated on Wednesday, January 28. A further extension would likely test the previously mentioned POC zone.
At this stage, the move remains consistent with a healthy technical correction. The critical factor is the preservation of structural support levels. A confirmed breakdown could open the door to prolonged consolidation or even deterioration of the long-term trend.
The internal ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator currently signals a Risk-Off environment, consistent with rising corrective volume — suggesting partial institutional redistribution following the recent bullish leg.
In recent weeks, the index has traded within an approximate range of 6,496.89 to 7,019.43 points, reflecting increasing intraday volatility and tactical uncertainty.
The Role of the VIX
The VIX has broken its short-term descending trendline and is beginning to form a sequence of higher highs. Historically, sustained upward movements in this volatility benchmark have preceded corrections of 3% to 7% in the S&P 500.
As long as the rise remains gradual, it represents risk normalization following a period of excessive complacency. Only an abrupt spike toward stress levels would suggest systemic risk escalation.
Why Is the Market Behaving This Way?
The market is simultaneously pricing in:
Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Sector rotation toward defensive assets.
Elevated valuations after heavy concentration in mega-cap technology stocks.
Narrowing market breadth.
There is no confirmed change of cycle at this stage, but rather a transition into a less accommodative environment. Complacency has given way to prudence, and the S&P 500–VIX relationship will remain the most reliable barometer to assess whether the correction exhausts itself or evolves into a deeper structural adjustment.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold shows a clear shift in structure after failing to hold above the 5,080 resistance zone. Price had been respecting an ascending trendline, but a sharp bearish impulse broke the structure and pushed the market aggressively lower, signalling strong selling pressure.
Following the drop, gold found temporary support near the 4,910–4,900 area and staged a modest rebound. However, the recovery remains corrective rather than impulsive. Price is currently approaching a key supply zone around 4,980–4,995, which aligns with previous support turned resistance and the underside of the broken structure.
If sellers defend this zone, we could see another bearish leg targeting 4,910 first, with a deeper move toward the 4,850 support area. On the other hand, a clean breakout and sustained move above 5,000–5,020 would weaken the bearish outlook and open the door for a recovery toward 5,080.
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