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Report 12/11/25Report summary: Markets just digested three intertwined storylines: (1) Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk’s unprecedented long-dated pay plan, anchoring the equity’s premium squarely to robotaxis and humanoid robotics optionality; (2) Big Tech’s AI-infrastructure arms race is accelerating, but in sharply different ways across companies, with heavy capex and depreciation reshaping earnings math; (3) Washington and Beijing have stepped back from the brink with a partial, tactical truce that eases supply-chain fear without resolving structural rivalry. Layer on a cooling, but not collapsing, U.S. labor pulse and a still-live Fed easing path, and you get a macro mix that tilts risk assets mildly positive, the dollar a touch softer on the margins, and gold steady with a policy-put under it. What happened and how markets read it Tesla’s vote on Nov. 6 approved Musk’s mega-incentive, after weeks of buildup that reframed Tesla as much more than an EV maker. The stock’s equity story is now explicitly levered to “physical AI”, robotaxis and the Optimus platform, whose cash flows are distant, binary and regulation-dependent, but whose TAM is narrative-dominant today. The result: higher implied volatility, fatter right-tail optionality, and more sensitivity to autonomy milestones and policy headlines than to quarterly auto margins. At the same time, AI infrastructure spending is re-rating parts of Big Tech. Meta’s step-ups to 2025 capex (and the knock-on depreciation glidepath) are compressing margins and testing investor patience, whereas Microsoft and Amazon lean on cloud P&Ls to cushion the spend; Alphabet is pressing its own capex envelope with healthier cash-flow cover. The AI build-out is real; the near-term EPS drag is, too. Geopolitically, the U.S.–China summit delivered a commercial de-escalation: Beijing delayed expanded rare-earth restrictions for a year; the U.S. paused an “affiliates rule” expansion and both sides suspended newly added port fees; Washington halved fentanyl-related tariffs in exchange for Chinese enforcement steps; and China agreed to resume U.S. soybean purchases. Bank of America estimates the package takes effective bilateral tariffs down roughly 10 percentage points (about a $40bn revenue swing), removing a near-term worst-case risk premium from supply chains and cyclicals. It’s partial, it’s fragile, but it matters for positioning. Under the surface, U.S. macro remains mixed: private-sector hiring looks tepid rather than recessionary, while layoffs remain idiosyncratic. The Fed cut once and remains data-dependent; Governor Lisa Cook’s recent remarks emphasized labor-market risks over sticky inflation and kept December “live,” which markets read as a dovish bias with optionality. Additive AI-capex context: OpenAI’s expansion into multi-cloud (including a 7-year $38bn AWS compute deal) underscores the durability of AI infra demand across chips, power, and data centers, a cycle increasingly measured in trillions of contracted commitments and multi-year depreciation streams. That flow benefits hyperscalers and select semis/providers, while raising the hurdle for ROI across ad-driven platforms lacking monetizable cloud off-ramps.  Forecasts 1) Tesla & “physical AI.” The compensation plan removes governance overhangs for now and realigns incentives to autonomy/robot deployment milestones. Street models already ascribe a majority of value to Robotaxi/Optimus optionality, not legacy auto, consistent with recent sell-side allocations (Robotaxi ≈45%, Optimus ≈19%, Auto/FSD/energy the balance). That framework implies event-risk trading around FSD progress, pilot launches, and regulatory posture in key U.S./EU/Asia jurisdictions. Expect choppy factor exposure: long-duration growth sensitivity when real yields fall; wider drawdowns on autonomy setbacks or safety/regulatory shocks. 2) AI capex super-cycle. Capex and depreciation will act as a profit-mix shock across Big Tech. Platforms with self-monetizing clouds (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG) can offset EPS drag; ad-heavy networks without externalized cloud revenue (META) must convince investors of future ROI with present-day margin give-ups. The super-cycle’s second-order effects, grid build-outs, power pricing, thermal/land constraints, are investable but execution-heavy. 3) U.S.–China: detente with tripwires. The truce trims tail risks for semis, EV components, and bulk commodities, and the Validated End-User (VEU) channel plus a narrowed “affiliates rule” may lubricate specific shipments. But none of this addresses the structural tech-security contest; controls on leading-edge compute remain. Treat it as a 12-month rolling ceasefire vulnerable to U.S. legal challenges on tariffs, election-cycle rhetoric, and on-the-ground enforcement. 4) U.S. policy mix and the consumer. Shutdown dynamics around SNAP underscore fiscal-mechanical frictions that can nick Q4 consumption at the margins if delays widen, even as top-quartile households remain resilient. The Fed’s bar for re-tightening is high; the bar for incremental insurance easing remains non-trivial if labor softens further. Net: a soft-landing bias with policy put still in place. Fiscal & political implications In Washington, the legal and legislative fog around tariffs and shutdown funding creates intermittent growth and sentiment headwinds but also incentivizes tactical truces that markets reward. The Supreme Court’s tariff case review (timing and scope still a swing factor) adds legal uncertainty to the tariff path, further reason to expect episodic volatility in tariff-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, Fed communication emphasizes symmetric risk management: don’t under-ease into a weakening jobs market, but don’t rekindle inflation. That stance generally compresses the dollar’s rate-differential premium and stabilizes real rates, all else equal. In Beijing, rare-earths restraint was tactically relaxed, but the message of leverage retention remains. The VEU pathway reduces friction for specific validated buyers; however, export-control policy will stay calibrated, not capitulated, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in advanced manufacturing supply chains. Risks The biggest left-tail risk is a policy or safety shock that stalls autonomy timelines, which would collapse the multiple on Tesla’s long-dated growth legs and refocus the market on current cash engines. On the macro side, a disorderly re-tightening in financial conditions (e.g., a bond selloff that forces the Fed’s hand) would jar both growth and duration trades. Geopolitically, any relapse in U.S.–China ties, especially on chips or maritime incidents, would quickly reprice the truce and reinstate supply-chain premia. Possible Opportunities Selective AI-infrastructure barbell, hyperscalers with clean monetization plus critical suppliers, remains supported by multi-year commitments (and by OpenAI’s broadening procurement). Rotation into trade-sensitive cyclicals may benefit from the truce’s tariff relief, particularly where input bottlenecks ease (magnets, certain specialty metals/chemicals), though position sizing should respect the detente’s fragility. In macro, a measured Fed and easing tariff premium argue for gradual USD softening and equity duration outperformance on dips.  Asset implications XAUUSD (Gold): With Fed communication skewed toward guarding the labor side and a partial easing of geopolitical trade risk, gold loses an acute fear bid but retains a solid policy-hedge floor. A gently softer dollar and capped real yields should keep dips supported. Watch December Fedspeak and any re-escalation in trade or sanctions for upside catalysts. S&P 500 / Dow Jones: Index-level EPS gets pulled two ways: AI-capex winners (cloud-monetizers, infra suppliers) versus near-term margin compression at ad-heavy AI spenders. The China truce trims worst-case input shocks for industrials and autos, a modest tailwind for the Dow’s cyclicals. Base case: grind higher with factor churn, sensitive to yields and capex ROI narratives. USDJPY / DXY: The combination of a dovish-tilted Fed and reduced tariff war-premium argues for marginal DXY slippage over 1–3 months, though risk-on episodes can weaken JPY via higher U.S. yields. If U.S. data soften and term premia compress, USDJPY has room to retrace lower; if AI-capex keeps yields buoyant, USDJPY stays supported while DXY ranges. Crude Oil (Brent/WTI): The detente and ongoing Chinese procurement strategy temper downside tails from supply-chain disruption while sanctions frictions elsewhere limit the downside floor. With global balances cushioned by inventories and growth steady rather than hot, the $60s–$70s equilibrium holds absent a fresh geopolitical supply shock. (Sensitivity: shipping insurance/sanctions enforcement and China’s demand cadence.) Tesla (context for broader risk): With the plan approved, the market will trade milestones over margins: FSD reliability metrics, pilot robotaxi deployments, Optimus use-cases in manufacturing/logistics, and regulatory posture. This keeps implied volatility structurally higher and correlation with long-duration tech elevated. Trading stances Into year-end, the path of least resistance is buy-the-dip in quality duration (mega-cap cloud monetizers and mission-critical infra) funded against AI spenders with thin near-term cash cover, and lean short USD on rallies versus funding-currency baskets where central banks remain more restrictive. On macro hedges, keep a core gold allocation and selectively add energy optionality into geopolitical windows.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
NIFTY IntraSwing (Spot) & Future Levels for 13th Nov '25✍🏼️ "Weekly PCR" mentioned in BOX format. ✍🏼️ "Future IntraSwing Levels" mentioned in BOX format. ✍🏼️ "WEEKLY Levels" follow Sunday / Saturday's Post. Useful to Tally / Recognize for Next day Trade Plan. Useful to Tally / Recognize or sometime DETECT abnormal Movement of NIFTY for Next day Trade Plan. Level description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
NSE:NIFTY
by DSKF16
Very Bullish on ERHEWe have the Stena Drillmax ship operating and drilling near ERHE Blocks since late October this year and in just a short time almost 40 Million shares were bought on a stock that's hard to find due to it being on the Grey Market. Something Major is Brewing, I expect a correction to at least .51 cents a share due to Oil being found but the Major Target for me would be $4 to $8 a share. Shell knows what they are doing when they Hired the Stena Drillmax ship. If you ever find yourself on InvestorsHub and went on the ERHE board to see the Discussion, you'll see a clown Named "SSC" that has been Negative on this Stock for 10+ Years acting like he's a Saint trying to protect so called "Innocent Investors" from buying this stock. Me and my group of investors believe he's Naked Short Selling this from Canada and now after recent rapid Price Appreciation he has become Very Emotional. The only reason he would be Very Emotional, is that he has skin in the game and would explain why he's on that Board Religiously trying to deter people from buying this stock even though it's Hard to find being on the Grey Market. That clown was betting on ERHE going Bankrupt to cash in Big time but that WON'T happen as Oil will be Found. Time is ticking SSC, Full Liquidation is coming for you when this rises North of 10 cents a share as you were to easy to read......... Only invest what you are willing to lose and you'll be okay as an Investor - Not Financial Advise !
OTC:ERHELong
by SneakAttack
The Art of Balancing Emotion and Logic in Trading...Hello Traders 🐺 🎯 Mindset Series #1 — The Art of Emotional Control in Trading Traders, today I decided to start a new series called “Mindset”, where I want to share subtle insights I’ve gathered over my 6 years of experience in trading. I thought, what better way to kick off the first installment than with one of the most important trading concepts — something I believe is even more essential than learning any technical or fundamental material. Without it, the knowledge we acquire cannot truly be applied in the real trading world. To put it simply, this concept acts as a bridge between the ideas in our mind and the complex, exciting world of trading. Let’s not overcomplicate it — let’s start somewhere. Whether you’re a newcomer or an experienced trader, we all struggle with the same concept: EMOTIONAL CONTROL! 💡 Why Control, Not Eliminate Emotions? 🤔 As you know, emotions are built from our memories and experiences, and trading is no exception. When we first enter the market as beginners, we don’t have strong feelings about opening a long or short position. We might not even have a particular preference for a symbol — maybe we just want to trade altcoins or focus only on Bitcoin or gold. So why do these preferences gradually develop and eventually become strong biases toward certain symbols? The answer is simple: EMOTIONS! 🔥 Over time, we tend to favor symbols that have historically brought us more profit — sometimes even if the strategy we used at the time wasn’t perfect. Conversely, even with the best strategy, we sometimes lose. So where does the problem lie? Let’s be honest: all the tools we use to enter profitable trades are only helping us make more accurate predictions. There’s no such thing as certainty in trading! ⚡ Many believe that by having a good strategy and picking the “right” symbol, they can achieve 100% guaranteed profits. This, however, is the fine line that separates a trader from a gambler — a topic I’ll dive deeper into in future “Mindset” posts. For now, let’s focus on the core idea: In my view, the more realistic you are and the more you focus on your strategy — while leaning on logic (not perfectly, but consistently) — the more profitable your trades can be. Even having a strategy that yields 65–70% profitable trades places you among the top traders in the market. ✅ Yes, even the best traders lose. But these losses teach lessons. They allow us to use our emotions, memories, and past experiences as a sort of guardrail along the trading journey — helping us apply our logic more effectively. Simple Analogy 💡 Imagine a smartphone or computer. It consists of two main parts: Hardware = Logic / Data Software = Decisions shaped by emotions & experience A trader’s mind works the same way. The better you manage your “software,” the more efficiently your “hardware” can process information. This, to me, is the subtle art of emotional control 🎯. 💬 I hope you find this post valuable, and I’m looking forward to hearing your insightful thoughts! And as always remember our golden rule : 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺 (Mindset-series)
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kiu_Coin
Tyson Foods Boosts Revenue as U.S. Senate Unlocks Public FundsBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades White Smoke in Washington The U.S. Senate approved a 60-40 vote deal to end the longest government shutdown in the country's history. The agreement unlocks funding until January 30, ensures the continuation of the SNAP food assistance program until September, and temporarily halts public sector layoffs. This partial relief provides short-term stability to household spending and consumption, which could positively impact companies focused on mass-market and food sectors. The Crazy Chicken: Tyson Foods Beats Expectations Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) projects a 2% to 4% increase in revenue for 2026, surpassing market estimates. The company is benefiting from strong demand for chicken, offsetting weakness in its beef business. This trend reflects consumers’ preference for more affordable proteins and the poultry sector's resilience amid volatility in other meat segments. In a context of partial public spending recovery and stability in assistance programs, Tyson Foods positions itself as a key player in the protein market. The combination of sustained demand and efficient management could strengthen investor confidence in the coming quarters. Technical Analysis (Ticker AT: TSN) On the daily chart, TSN has recently respected the critical support level at $50.56, rebounding last week above the point of control (POC) at $54.58. Following the agreements in Washington, the stock showed upward volatility, closing around $55, regaining the 200-day moving average lost in early May, potentially signaling a long-term trend reversal. Since then, TSN has traded between $50.56 and $57.13, with the latter acting as immediate resistance. A close above $57.13 could open the way to the Head-and-Shoulders zone formed between February and April, projecting the price toward $61.08 and the yearly highs at $63.22. If bullish momentum persists, we could even see an attempt to recover last year’s holiday rally levels around $64.65. Otherwise, the stock could retrace to retest recent lows. Indicators support the positive scenario: RSI stands at 66.53%, MACD is regaining directionality, and the histogram shows positive values. The US Market Pulse indicator from ActivTrades currently signals an extreme Risk-On scenario, reflecting strong appetite for higher-risk assets in U.S. markets. In this environment, investors seek companies with visible growth and solid fundamentals, favoring cyclical and consumer sectors such as proteins. For Tyson Foods, this implies the stock could benefit from interest in equities combining positive revenue projections and resilience amid market volatility. However, this higher risk appetite also means that any negative news or unexpected macro data could trigger sharp price movements, reinforcing the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels on the chart. In this context, Tyson Foods combines solid fundamentals with a favorable technical picture, positioning itself as an attractive option for investors focused on sustained protein demand and stable U.S. consumer spending. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
NYSE:TSNLong
by ActivTrades
Can Integration Save CVS or Sink It?CVS Health confronts a dangerous convergence of risks that threatens its vertically integrated business model. The company's Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) subsidiary, Caremark, faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny as lawmakers target the opaque rebate structures and spread pricing mechanisms that underpin PBM profitability. Simultaneously, the explosive growth of high-cost GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has created unprecedented formulary pressure. CVS's decision to exclude Eli Lilly's Zepbound in favor of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, based purely on price, backfired spectacularly. Lilly publicly pulled its employees from CVS's PBM plan and shifted to competitor Rightway Healthcare, signaling deep market skepticism about CVS's ability to balance cost control with clinical outcomes. This defection validates concerns that major employers are increasingly willing to abandon the "Big Three" PBMs for transparent alternatives.   The company's acquisition strategy has proven economically disastrous, with CVS recording a staggering $5.7 billion goodwill impairment charge on Oak Street Health in Q3 2025, effectively admitting the primary care assets were dramatically overvalued. This massive write-down undermines the core thesis that vertical integration of insurance (Aetna), PBM (Caremark), and care delivery creates synergistic value. Meanwhile, operational margins erode from multiple directions: $833 million in litigation charges from past business practices, declining generic dispensing rates as expensive branded GLP-1 drugs displace generics, and the structural reality that robust patent protection on GLP-1 drugs extending into the 2040s eliminates the PBM's traditional leverage of threatening generic competition.   CVS faces additional systemic vulnerabilities across geopolitical, technological, and scientific domains. The company's reliance on Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients sourced from China and India exposes it to supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and mandatory but expensive domestic manufacturing mandates. Its vast integrated infrastructure creates an attractive single point of failure for cyberattacks, heightened by the $20 billion technology investment to further interconnect all segments. Most critically, pharmaceutical manufacturers hold unprecedented leverage due to the extended patent exclusivity of breakthrough GLP-1 therapies, with no meaningful generic relief for 15-20 years, forcing CVS into a perpetual choice between excluding superior drugs and losing clients, or accepting coverage that severely erodes margins.   Until CVS demonstrates sustainable PBM client retention among major employers, successful integration of its healthcare delivery assets without further impairments, and a viable strategy to navigate the regulatory assault on traditional PBM economics, the investment profile remains fundamentally challenged. The Lilly defection represents more than a single client loss; it exposes structural fragility in a business model increasingly misaligned with market demands for transparency, clinical appropriateness, and technological innovation.
NYSE:CVSShort
by UDIS_View
GIFTNIFTY IntraSwing Levels for 12th Nov '25GIFTNIFTY IntraSwing Levels for 12th Nov '25 Useful to Tally / Recognize for Next day Trade Plan. Useful to Tally / Recognize or sometime DETECT abnormal Movement of NIFTY for Next day Trade Plan. Level description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
NSEIX:NIFTY1!
by DSKF16
$Aster Aster Breaking out of Falling Channel -50% down from ATH ASTER/USDT Technical Outlook (2H) SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:ASTER Aster is Breaking out of its Falling Channel -50% down from ATH Current price: $1.14 After a prolonged downtrend, ASTER is showing early signs of consolidation and stabilisation, Prices have should accumulation below $1.20 . Price action remains below the 200 EMA, suggesting that the broader structure is still bearish, but momentum is gradually shifting as short-term moving averages begin to flatten. Key Observations: Buy Zone :$0.99 – $1.38 This area has acted as a structural demand zone where previous sell pressure was absorbed. A reclaim above this region would confirm a shift in sentiment and could set the stage for a trend reversal. Resistance Levels / Take Profit Zones: TP1: $1.73 TP2: $2.10 TP3: $2.40 Momentum & Structure: A clean breakout and sustained close above $1.38 could open the path to take profit areas mentioned above. * Failure to hold above$0.99 will invalidate this idea and could expose ASTER to another leg down. Summary: Bias:Neutral to mildly bullish while above $0.99 Invalidation:Break and close below $0.99 Potential upside:$1.73 – $2.40 range if buyers maintain momentum with future all time highs up to $3.
Long
by Ifiok-Trades
Gold needs to break through 4150-4160 to move higher.This week, gold prices broke free from the previous sluggish range-bound trading pattern, showing a strong upward trend, and market sentiment has clearly shifted to optimism. At the opening of trading on Monday, I clearly pointed out in my analysis that once gold prices effectively broke through the key support zone of 4030-4050, the market would enter an upward channel – and the actual market developments precisely confirmed this judgment. Currently, gold prices are encountering significant resistance around the 4150 level. This level represents a resistance point where prices have repeatedly surged and then retreated in the past, forming a dense resistance zone in terms of technical patterns. If the bulls want to further expand their gains, they must strongly break through the key resistance area of ​​4150-4160; this range will become the core observation window for subsequent trading. Strategically, we remain committed to the principle of "buying on dips". Conservative investors can gradually establish long positions in the 4080-4110 range, seizing opportunities during pullbacks; if the price chooses to rise strongly without a deep retracement, then once it stabilizes above 4130, one can decisively go long, following the trend. The above is my personal analysis and is for discussion and reference only. If you agree with this approach, please like and follow to show your support! It should be emphasized that any strategy is time-sensitive and should not be applied rigidly. It is essential to adjust it flexibly in light of real-time market conditions. I will continue to monitor market changes and update trading notifications in the channel in a timely manner.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Market_Trading_Guide
#AN028: London Challenges European Union, Halts Defense Funds The news that the United Kingdom has decided not to pay the €6.75 billion earmarked for the new European Defense Fund sends a clear political and economic signal to Brussels. Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, an independent Forex trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time. Behind this decision is not just a question of money, but a precise strategy of industrial and military independence aimed at reaffirming British sovereignty post-Brexit. 💼 Economic and geopolitical implications The European fund was designed to finance joint defense and technological projects, reducing dependence on the United States and strengthening the EU's autonomous military capacity. By refusing to participate, London is sending a two-pronged message: Economic: Priority is given to its own budgets and its national defense industry, which has seen a strong revival in the last two years with orders from Ukraine, the Middle East, and NATO countries. Strategic: The United Kingdom does not intend to bind itself to European defense plans that could compete with NATO, of which it remains a key member. 📉 Market Impact In currency markets, the news tends to temporarily strengthen the pound sterling (GBP), as it is perceived as a gesture of autonomy and fiscal stability—less public spending in a context of tensions over EU budgets. However, the effect could be short-lived: the decision deepens the rift with Brussels, fueling political risks and potential trade frictions, especially if the EU reacts with restrictive measures on joint military contracts or exports. On the equity front, British defense stocks (BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce Defence) could benefit from "patriotic" sentiment and increased domestic orders. On the bond market, however, the effect is neutral: the move does not change the sovereign rating but reinforces the idea of ​​the pound as a regional safe haven currency in a Europe torn between austerity and defense spending. 🌍 Risks for the EU For Brussels, London's lack of input complicates the construction of a common defense policy: less funding for shared industrial programs, greater dependence on Germany and France, and a perception of European institutional instability, a factor that tends to weaken the euro (EUR).
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
GBPJPY Long Trigger That Nobody Talks AboutGBPJPY in the 15-min timeframe, after the previous two legs of the 4H uptrend, has now formed a range where breaking it upwards could reactivate the next MWC uptrend wave. Setup and Entry: You can set a stop buy above 203.268, or you can wait for a breakout candle above 203.237. Exit Plan: We're taking this position for the continuation of the HWC and restarting the MWC uptrend, so it's better to hold it longer—use partial profits to your advantage. The first resistance will be around 204.203, with daily resistance at 204.810. But definitely close 35% of the position at an R/R of 2, so that if you hit your stop loss, you at least break even. Goal: Aligning with the drop in JPYX in the 4H timeframe and riding along with the MWC uptrend wave of GBPJPY.
Long
by SkepticLab
EURUSD Review November 12 2025Short-term price movement ideas. The price has reached a weekly zone of interest, where we saw a daily high sweep acting as a trigger — creating conditions for a potential downward move. After the daily sweep, we received 4H confirmation in the form of an FVG, which has already been retested. If volume confirmation appears on a lower timeframe, we can then consider opening short positions. Be flexible, adapt to the market, and the results will come quickly. Good luck to everyone.
by SFASignals
Ares - Long Strong Uptrend Structure Even after the recent pullback, ARES is still maintaining a higher-lows structure, which is a sign that buyers are defending the price. The stock bounced from a demand zone and is now pushing upward again — a sign of renewed momentum. Volume Profile Support A large amount of volume has traded around the $150–154 zone, which creates what's called a high-volume node. This acts as a support area because many investors established positions there — buyers defend these levels. Fundamentals Ares is one of the largest global private equity and asset management firms, benefiting from: Higher interest rates → increased demand for alternative financing. Strong asset inflows → recurring management fees (stable revenue). Asset managers historically perform well in bullish market cycles. ARES shows: Uptrend structure Volume support at current price Potential breakout setup Good risk/reward setup, especially if price holds above $152.
NYSE:ARESLong
by PacoW
GOLD outlook-GOLD , price retested $4145 zone 3 times till now failing to break higher, this shows me that buyers are at this stage exhausted and sellers are in control. -we can play some short term sells between now and possibly NYSE to lower demand zones before expecting further upside momentum for continuation buys considering shutdown weighing on uncertainty and still room for monthly candle to fill. Fundamentals in play: - Rate cut bets faded - Oct FOMC speech, Powell less dovish & slightly hawkish tone, emphasing he wants to see inflation reduce and see data before making any further decisions. This would mean that USD yields remain high therefor inflow into USD & gold bears. - Trade War optimism- Recent optimistic talks with Xi and Trump, therefor less uncertainty in the markets now and investors risk on mode. Less safe haven demand Govt Shutdown - we would have expected stronger Gold bearish momentum, however the only things that’s keeping us in seeing that is the US shutdown which is now longest in history, this therefor keeps investors on edge and cautious as they would like to see economic data to determine health and if safe to invest. Therefor current sentiment is mixed .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jawad_Khalili1
DXY (USD)Expecting upside continuation. We can see on HTF we have Bullish MS, with HH & HL formation. Fundamentals: - Rate cuts bets faded. - Oct FOMC, Powell slightly less dovish to Hawkish tone - want to be cautious with future rate cuts & want to be data dependant. - Dec rate cut probabilities dropped from 95% chance to 63% chance. This means that US yields remain high, less investor outflow because of interest rate differentials, therefor we can see USD upside. The only think thats probably impacting it is the US lockdown, and is now the longest ever, therefor investors still cautious as they would like to see data before we can see big drivers.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jawad_Khalili1