XAUUSD: Bulls Reach Full Targets; Start SellingToday the bullish momentum remained very strong. First, the market reached our initial target at 4228–4232, then moved up to 4250–4260, and eventually even surged to 4285, completing the final 4280 objective.
However, after reaching this area, the strength of the bulls clearly began to slow. On the one hand, we are approaching the market close, and trading activity is naturally fading. On the other hand, today’s rise has already been substantial, and gold is approaching the key 4300 level, where bullish pressure becomes significant.
Therefore, I plan to begin positioning a base short position. If prices continue to rise into the 4290–4310 zone, I will continue adding to the position to capture a pullback opportunity. The initial target is around 4260, followed by 4250. If the price extends above 4300, these targets will be adjusted upward accordingly, for example toward the 4270 area.
Bill Williams Indicators
The Bill Williams Strategy ExplainedWe all know the market doesn’t always play nice, but the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator can help you read between the lines. If you're focused on fine-tuning your entries and exits, let’s break down how fractals can be a useful tool in your strategy.
What is the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator?
At its core, the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator is a technical analysis tool that identifies potential reversal points in the market. This indicator is based on the fractal definition by Bill Williams, who described fractals as price patterns that can be used to predict potential shifts in price direction.
In simple terms, a fractal pattern consists of five consecutive bars or candlesticks on a chart. The middle bar of this pattern represents a local peak or trough, while the two bars on either side of it are smaller. A bullish fractal occurs when the middle bar is a higher high than the surrounding bars, and a bearish fractal appears when the middle bar is a lower low.
Bill Williams Fractal Definition
The Bill Williams Fractal is defined by a sequence of five consecutive bars. The middle bar represents the peak (for bearish fractals) or trough (for bullish fractals), surrounded by smaller bars on both sides. When price breaks the high (for bearish fractals) or low (for bullish fractals) of this central bar, it signals a potential breakout.
How Does the Bill Williams Fractal Trading Strategy Work?
The Bill Williams Fractal Strategy is a proven approach in crypto trading. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, using the fractal strategy can provide valuable insights into potential market reversals and breakouts. By combining the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator with effective risk management, you can improve your trading edge.
A common method is to use the 200 EMA to gauge the overall trend. If the price is below the 200 EMA, traders tend to focus on lower fractals and look for short opportunities, while if the price is above the 200 EMA, they focus on upper fractals and consider long trades. However, always remember to confirm the breakout of local levels for greater reliability in your trades.
Master the Bill Williams Fractal Strategy
The Bill Williams Fractal Strategy is a well-established method in crypto trading. Whether you're just starting out or you're an experienced trader, incorporating the fractal strategy can provide useful insights into potential market reversals and breakouts. By combining the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator with a solid risk management plan, you can enhance your trading approach.
That said, remember that no strategy guarantees success. Fractal trading isn't about predicting the market with absolute certainty — it's about managing your entries and exits with precision and maintaining discipline. Always make sure to think critically and adapt to market conditions. So, when you spot a Bill Williams Fractal on your chart, use it as a guide, but always trust your analysis and approach. Happy trading!
Exivara24: Bitcoin Weakens – Liquidity Drains, Demand ReversesBitcoin continues to face heavy pressure. Over the past two weeks, the market has experienced a sharp liquidity outflow and a simultaneous reversal of all the major capital inflow channels that were previously pushing price upward. At Exivara24, we are detecting an alarming synchronization of three key factors that is now dictating sentiment for both retail traders and institutions.
The three main demand engines are reversing at the same time
ETF outflow pressure stronger than expected
Spot Bitcoin ETFs (especially U.S. and European) have been recording consistent selling for the third straight week. Net outflows over the last 10 days exceeded $1.18 billion – the largest figure since May 2025. When ETFs shrink their balances, they directly pull capital out of the market, reducing order-book depth and amplifying volatility.
Sharp decline in DAT (Daily Active Transfers) activity
The number of daily active transfers on the Bitcoin network has fallen 34 % compared to October averages. This is a direct indicator of real network usage: fewer transfers = less capital rotation = weakening organic demand.
Stablecoin liquidity squeeze
The total volume of USDT and USDC held on exchanges (the primary source of “fast money”) has dropped by $2.4 billion in 14 days. Shrinking stablecoin reserves is a classic precursor to deeper and sharper price moves, as most margin buying is funded from these reserves.
Why this matters right now
When all three demand drivers reverse simultaneously, the market shifts into “thin liquidity” mode.
Any additional pressure (ETF outflows, whale selling, or macro-negative news) now triggers much stronger and faster price reactions than during periods of high liquidity.
What Exivara24 internal analytics show
Order-book depth on the top 5 exchanges is down 38–42 % versus October
Average BTC/USDT spread has widened from 0.008 % to 0.024 %
4-hour candle volatility has increased 61 % – every move is now “stretched”
Short-term scenarios from Exivara24
Base scenario (58 % probability)
Continued liquidity squeeze → test of $80,000 – $82,000 in the next 7–12 days → gradual stabilization and return above $90,000 after the holidays.
Bearish scenario (31 % probability)
Accelerated ETF outflows + continued DAT decline → break of $80,000 and fast move toward $72,000–75,000 (March 2025 lows).
Bullish scenario (11 % probability)
Unexpected major inflow (e.g., new large institutional buyer announcement or Fed dovish shift) → rapid reclaim above $95,000 as early as this week.
Exivara24 recommendations right now
Reduce or completely close leveraged long positions / move to spot or stablecoins
Prepare dry powder for entries in the $80,000–84,000 range – the most probable accumulation zone
Hard stops below $79,000 (weekly close) are mandatory
Watch ETF inflows and DAT dynamics – these two metrics will give the first reversal confirmation
Final take from Exivara24 – what this means for you right now
We see a clear picture: Bitcoin has entered a thin-liquidity stress phase, with the three key demand sources – ETFs, network activity, and stablecoins – all weakening at once.
This is not just a correction; it is structural compression that makes every price move sharper and more unpredictable.
Until these three trends reverse, downward pressure will remain dominant.
Yes, an unexpected catalyst (major institutional buyer, Fed softening, positive regulatory news) could flip the market in hours – but the current probability of that is only 11 %.
This is not the end of the bull cycle and not a “sell everything” signal.
It is a signal that easy money is gone.
The market has shifted into professional mode, where only those who:
strictly follow risk management
avoid unhedged leveraged longs
keep cash ready for buys at $80,000–84,000
are prepared for ±10–15 % swings in either direction within a day
…will survive and profit.
For us at Exivara24, this is not a crisis – it’s our normal working environment.
Our internal models switched to “liquidity stress” mode 10 days ago: we cut long exposure, strengthened hedging, and prepared client portfolios for the current conditions.
Result: average drawdown across all accounts in November is under 4.1 %, even on the worst days.
We don’t panic and we don’t get euphoric.
We just do our job: read capital flows, measure liquidity, and give you clear levels and actions.
If you want to get through this period calmly, with minimal losses (and ideally with profit on rebounds), now is the perfect time to join our real-time updates.
Full December protection & accumulation plan
Precise entry/exit levels and 24/7 alerts
Access to the private channel and morning/evening briefings
Still Good Long R:R's (Gold)Setup
Bullish trend / Correction
Gold still above 50 day moving average
Daily RSI stable around 50 level
Has made a 50% correction of rally since breakout at 3400
Commentary
It seems likely gold needs to first complete an ABCD correction before moving higher - meaning one more lower low. However, support at 3920 could hold, offering good R:R opportunities - even if 4200 holds as resistance.
Strategy
Look for bullish reversals below 4000, above 3920 support
Wait for bigger pullback to the 61.8% Fib / demand zone under 3800
PAEL analysis as a long-term stock!On a daily time frame, it shows a bearish divergence on the RSI 14. This might be ignored if it breaks the LH @ 55.4.
However, having good fundamentals intact, along with the Pole & Flag pattern and long bullish trend, makes it a good choice for the long-term portfolio. It can either be bought on Buy limit @ 48 or Buy Stop @ 54. For the safe side, it can be bought in two steps. First at Buy Stop and second at Buy Limit. Both values also comply with FVG (Fair Value Gap).
For swing trade, it would be a good buy @ 48, SL 42.7, TP 64 (1:3 RRR).
BTC Bullish Zigzag Pattern (Elliott Wave)As an isolated, short-term pattern, BTC has formed into a near-perfect zigzag pattern. Wave-A is a violent monowave. Wave-B retraces exactly 61.8% of A and is structurally a flat pattern and a polywave. Wave-C relates to (A+B)/2 in time, 80% of wave-A in price, and is an impulsive wave.
Beyond the Neowave considerations, there's also a clear bullish momentum divergence, multi-peak AO, daily/4hr 1st wiseman, and 4hr 2nd wiseman (fractal).
Given all these considerations, and without considering the longer-term pattern, we are set for a decent bounce here which could potentially go to new all time highs.
After speaking privately with Glenn Neely, he also thinks BTC is nearing the final blow-off phase which could take us as high as $250k, and ending sometime early next year.
While I personally feel less confident about any long-term count now given multiple possibilities, at the very least, I think it's a good idea to be on the long-side here unless we clearly break through the $98-93k range. Especially because of this short-term pattern in isolation meeting all the normal signals I look for in a bottom pattern.
As things continue to develop it may be easier to see a single longer-term count emerging, especially as we near the conclusion of the long-term pattern. For now, it doesn't make a big difference what exactly the count for the long-term wave up is, just that there's a very high probability it is not yet finished and we are hitting a short-term bottom now.
ETHUSD 1H | Bullish Continuation Setup🟢 Market Structure
Price holding above key support at 3,600
4H sell-side liquidity taken below
Bullish structure intact with higher lows
🔵 Key Support Levels
Immediate Support: 3,600 - 3,610 (current zone)
Primary Support: 3,583 - 3,594 (consolidation base)
Strong Support: 3,549 (momentum defense)
🎯 Entry Zones & Targets
🟡 Primary Entry: 3,605 - 3,615 (current retest)
🟠 Secondary Entry: 3,583 - 3,594 (deeper retest)
🔴 Stop Loss: Below 3,548 (support break)
💰 Take Profit Targets
TP1: 3,637 - 3,650 (immediate resistance)
TP2: 3,700 - 3,720 (momentum extension)
TP3: 3,800 - 3,856 (liquidity zone)
⚡ Trade Management
Scale entries on support retests
Move SL to breakeven at TP1
Partial profits at each target
Bullish continuation expected - buying dips toward support
#ETH #Ethereum #TradingView #Bullish #Crypto
A chance to grab 1:3 RRR!In one hour chart, we've:
Bullish divergence.
Break the neckline in a Bullish trend.
Williams Alligator mouth wide open, confirming bullish trend.
Pole & Flag forming with retracement as a sign of continuation bullish pattern.
Dollar Index is Bearish (1H)
Euro Index is Bullish (1H)
All the above indicators are making it a good bullish ride with a 1:3 RRR with an entry at around 1.154, SL at 1.152, and TP at around 1.16.
Note: It is always advisable to have your own analysis before executing any live trade!
All the best...
ETH/USD – Reversal From DemandSMC | ICT | Bill Williams | 1H Bias
ETH swept lows into HTF demand and printed bullish displacement out of discount pricing.
📍 Key Levels
Entry Zone: ~$3,315 – $3,328
SL: ~$3,053
TP1: $3,600
TP2: $3,856 (liquidity + imbalance target)
📊 Confluences
Liq sweep below structure
LTF market structure shift
Demand block reaction + reclaim
Alligator shift — jaw opening up from compression
Bottom fractal forming at sweep point
Draw on liquidity toward premium inefficiency
🎯 Trade Logic
Stop run → algo long delivery
Targeting FVG fill + swing liquidity
Partial at mid-range, runner to premium
Monitoring price at $3,856 — strong reaction zone for continuation or rejection.
BTC/USD – Bullish Reversal PlaySMC | ICT | Bill Williams | 1H Bias
BTC swept HTF liquidity and reacted from a clean discount zone, showing displacement and reclaim structure.
📍 Key Levels
Entry Zone: ~$101,800 – $102,000
SL: ~$98,729 – $98,793
TP1: $106,000
TP2: $109,961 (premium zone + liquidity target)
📊 Confluences
HTF sell-side liquidity sweep
Bullish BMS after sweeping lows
Reaction from SMC demand block
Bill Williams Alligator shifting bullish (jaw opening)
SMT divergence into the lows
Price leaving discount → moving toward inefficiency
🎯 Trade Logic
Sell-side taken → buy-side liquidity draw
Targeting FVGs + imbalance fill above
Scaling partials at liquidity pockets & premium zone
Bias remains bullish into premium pricing — reassess if price rejects $109K zone.
RSR/USDT 1HR LONG SETUP 🟢 RSR/USDT | 1H Long Setup
Concepts: ICT | SMC | Bill Williams
Price is showing signs of a short-term bullish reversal after reaching a discount zone within the higher-timeframe range. Liquidity was taken below previous lows, sweeping sell-side liquidity — a classic ICT manipulation-to-displacement setup.
The Alligator indicator (Bill Williams) is starting to compress, showing potential for a phase transition from accumulation to the next impulsive wave. The lips (green), teeth (red), and jaw (blue) are beginning to align for a possible bullish cross, hinting at trend awakening.
Smart Money Confirmation (SMC):
Liquidity sweep: Below equal lows
Market structure shift: Minor break of structure on LTF
Entry: On fair value gap (FVG) + alligator compression zone
Stop loss: Below liquidity sweep zone (0.005286)
Take profit: Targeting the previous structural high (0.005835)
Trade idea:
🟩 Entry: 0.00543
🔴 Stop: 0.00528
🎯 TP: 0.00583
RR ≈ 3.2:1
📈 If bullish momentum continues and the Alligator opens upward with green lips leading, we could see continuation toward the upper range liquidity.
GOLD LONG 1hr setup
### 🧠 **Market Context & Liquidity**
- Gold took out some sellside liquidty
- We’re watching for whether buyers hold above the daily open or if we see a pullback into support.
- Key levels to watch:
- **Resistance:** 4,128 – 4,130 (recent high)
- **Support:** 4,107 – 4,112 (consolidation low & potential buy zone)
---
### 🐊 **Bill Williams Alligator Signal**
- The **Alligator** is awake and aligned — jaws above teeth above lips — indicating a **trending market**.
- Price is trading **above the Alligator**, supporting a **bullish bias**.
- Pullbacks into the Alligator (lips/teeth) are potential entries if structure holds.
---
### 🎯 **Gold (GC1!) Trade Plan – Long Setup**
- **Entry Zone:** 4,110 – 4,128 (support + Alligator confluence)
- **Stop Loss:** Below 4,057
- **TP1:** 4,128
- **TP2:** 4,200 4hr fvg (sibi)
---
### ✅ **Confirmation Needed:**
- Bullish reaction off support with volume.
- No loss of 4,107 level.
- Alligator continues pointing upward.
---
**Bottom Line:**
Gold is in a bullish structure above the Alligator.
Look for longs into support with a tight stop.
Trade the pullback — not the breakout.
ETHUSD – 1H Long Setup (SMC | ICT | Bill Williams Confluence)
Bias remains **bullish** after a clean sweep of **sell-side liquidity** and strong rejection from the demand zone. Price has confirmed a **break of structure** and is now reacting off a **breaker block** aligned with an **inverted fair value gap (IFVG)** — solid confluence for continuation.
### 🧭 Technical Breakdown
1. **Liquidity Sweep:** Price cleared out **sell-side liquidity** under the 3,800 zone — engineered liquidity before reversal.
2. **Breaker Block (BB):** FOR our entry
3. **IFVG:** Price filled the IFVG inside the BB and respected it perfectly, showing balanced re-pricing.
4. **Bill Williams Confluence:**
* Alligator lines tightening, signaling end of corrective phase.
* Price starting to trade above the green (lips) and red (teeth) lines — early signs of bullish acceleration.
5. **Structure Context:** Market structure shifted bullish on the 1H following the sell-side sweep and last week low being run.
### 📈 Plan
* **Entry:** From breaker block / IFVG confluence (3,800–3,830 zone).
* **Stop:** Below 3,713 (beneath liquidity low).
* **Targets:**
* 🥇 3,900 → intraday liquidity pool
* 🥈 4,020 → FVG fill above
* 🥉 4,090+ → 4H supply / OB
### ⚡ Bias
As long as ETH holds above the breaker block and 3,820 zone, I maintain **long bias** expecting expansion toward 4K+.
Classic **SMC + ICT synergy**: *Sell-side sweep → Structure shift → Breaker block + IFVG → Expansion*.
Government Bonds Are a Safe Haven in a RecessionThe Fed is signaling rate cuts ahead of a Recession, which seems to be right around the corner. How severe the recession will be is not yet clear, but either way bonds are likely bottoming for the next year or so.
There is a nice diametric forming on TLT/TMF too since the Covid highs, so they could be getting ready for a big reversal now. Bullish momentum divergences are also strong and it's already started a small trend up.
The way I see it this is a granny shot. If stocks keep drifting up, bonds can keep climbing as the Fed will keep signaling rate cuts since inflation has tapered. If stocks start to correct, the Fed may increase rate cut forecasts, which means bonds will go up even faster. If stocks collapse then liquidity rushes towards bonds, and bonds sky rocket.
Add 4% APY on top of that and it's an even easier shot because it still beats inflation if it goes sideways.
The only way this loses is if inflation starts picking up again, but given the trend of inflation, and top indicators on stocks, crypto, gold, etc. that seems like the least likely scenario.
$eth 15 min , new york setup 🧠 Session-Based Liquidity & Manipulation
Asia low was swept — liquidity grab confirmed.
Price is now stabilizing above the Alligator, signaling potential reversal.
🐊 Bill Williams Alligator Signal
Alligator is coiling and turning up — bullish awakening in progress.
Price holding above lips/teeth supports long bias.
🎯 Corrected ETHUSD Trade Plan – Long Setup
Entry Zone: 3,846 – 3,850 (retest of Alligator support)
Stop Loss: 3,777 (below recent swing low — as per chart)
TP1: 3,875 (first liquidity above)
TP2: 3,900 (next HTF level & Asia high)
✅ Confirmation Needed:
Bullish candle close above 3,850.
Hold above Alligator lips (~3,840–3,845).
Volume spike on the move up.
Bottom Line:
Asia low taken, manipulation complete.
Alligator supports bullish reversal.
Long above 3,846, stop below 3,777.
— origami_capita133 | TradingView
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