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Bitcoinprediction

Bitcoin: Forecasting the Cycle ATHBitcoin has set a new all-time high this July, continuing the upward cycle tied to the spring 2024 halving. The decline in bitcoin dominance since early July has sparked a minor altcoin season. On this topic, I invite you to revisit my latest crypto analyses in the Swissquote market analysis archive. You can also subscribe to our account to receive alerts every time I publish a new crypto market analysis for Swissquote. By clicking on the image below, you can read my latest perspective on Ether’s outperformance, which I now expect to last until the end of the cycle. In this new article, I’ll address an important subject: the final top price for Bitcoin in this 2025 cycle. I’ll publish a separate article soon regarding timing. Today, I present three tools to combine in order to define a target zone for Bitcoin’s final cycle high by year-end. 1) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis on a Logarithmic Scale Bitcoin is currently building wave 5 of the bullish cycle that started in autumn 2022 around $15,000. To calculate theoretical targets for wave 5, we use Fibonacci extensions, particularly projections from wave 3 and from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3. This gives a target range between $145,000 and $170,000. 2) Pi Cycle Top Prediction Tool The Pi Cycle Top is based on the interaction of two moving averages: the 111-day MA and the 350-day MA multiplied by 2. Historically, a bullish crossover of the 111 MA above the 2×350 MA preceded the market peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 by a few days. This tool captures late-stage bull market speculation but can give false signals when used alone, hence the need for multiple approaches. The current 2×350-day MA stands at $175,000. 3) Terminal Price Tool Developed by analyst Willy Woo, Terminal Price is an on-chain model based on Bitcoin’s fundamental network data. It combines the Price-to-Thermocap Ratio (market value vs cumulative mining cost) with a logarithmic metric to estimate a theoretical ceiling. Unlike the Pi Cycle Top, it does not rely on price action but on network economic activity, making it complementary. Terminal Price currently trends around $200,000. Used together, these three approaches can help identify likely cycle top zones. The Pi Cycle Top signals excess momentum through price dynamics, while Terminal Price provides a more fundamental upper bound. Their convergence with Elliott wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions increases the probability that the final cycle top will occur by late 2025 in a range between $145,000 and $200,000. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. 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INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Swissquote
Bitcoin correction inevitableTime to Chart the King! If you've checked my recent ideas, you'll find onefrom 11 December 2022 titled "Run it Back Turbo." Check it out! Press the play button to see how I've pinpointed the perfect bottom! Now, let's dive into why I've decided to close my trade: Wave Count: I've marked the 5 waves we've seen so far. Wave Comparison: Using the Date & Price Range tool, I've compared the size of wave 3 to wave 5. Wave 5 typically matches or exceeds wave 3, and you can see the King has done just that. How much more do you need to satisfy your greed? ABC Correction: We're expecting an ABC correction where: A Wave: Should hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level drawn from the bottom of the count to the current wave 5 peak. B Wave: Logically, this would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci level. C Wave: Expected to extend to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Fibonacci Retracement for Wave 5: If you draw a Fibonacci retracement just for the 5th wave, you'll see: The A wave should touch the 0.618 level of this measurement. The B wave goes to the 0.382 The C wave, as usual, should retrace fully to the 1.000 Fib level, where it began. CME Gap: Check out the 1-day chart below to see there's still a CME gap to fill on the way down. Monthly Close: We're nearing the first monthly close of Q1. Take a look at the RSI; there's a clear bearish divergence forming. Liquidity Clusters: The liquidity clusters below look enticing and are prime for grabs, essential for further upward movements. Remember, this market thrives on the ping-pong effect with short stop hunts and liquidation hunts, followed by the same to the longs, rinse and repeat. Here you see a freshly pulled LiqMap from The Kingfisher platform currently the only one I know of which can show you these clusters. As you can see we have a ton of liquidity to tap into before we can resume this bullrun! Conclusion: The King Needs to Reset! No reason to be upset. Everyone needs a rest after such a run. We will resume our journey soon enough, reaching those higher targets sooner or later. See the bright side: we can sell now, load up at cheaper prices, and potentially make even bigger profits. Follow me for updates to this idea and follow me on X for even more insights!
CME:BTC1!Education
by Candle_Styx
1
Recency Bias: Your Brain’s Worst Trade Idea Ever!Let’s face it: your brain is out to sabotage your trading, and recency bias is its weapon of choice. This sneaky psychological gremlin convinces you that your last few trades—good or bad—are all that matter. But spoiler alert: they’re not. 🎲 What is Recency Bias? Recency bias is your brain’s tendency to overvalue recent events and ignore the bigger picture. Three wins in a row? You’re invincible, right? WRONG. Three losses? Time to ditch your strategy? ALSO WRONG. The market doesn’t care about your streak—it plays the long game, and so should you. 💀 How It Destroys You 1️⃣ Winning Streak Confidence: After a few wins, you start upping your risk like you’re Warren Buffet. Then BAM—one loss wipes you out. 2️⃣ Losing Streak Paralysis: A few losses, and suddenly you’re too scared to pull the trigger, even on solid setups. 3️⃣ Revenge Trading: The currency pair that burned you? Oh, you’ll “get it back,” right? Nope. You’ll just lose more. 🛡️ How to Beat It 1️⃣ Reset Daily: Clear your head before every session. Meditate, walk, scream into a pillow—whatever works. 2️⃣ Stick to Your Plan: Your strategy works because it’s tested, not because your emotions say so. 3️⃣ Journal Everything: Spot your patterns before they wreck you. 4️⃣ Manage Risk: Winning or losing streaks shouldn’t change your position size. Period. 5️⃣ Check Your Ego: The market isn’t out to get you. It doesn’t even know you exist. 🧠 Final Words Recency bias is a sneaky little troll, but with self-awareness and discipline, you can shut it down. Remember: your last trade doesn’t define you—your consistency does. Now stop letting your brain gaslight you and go trade like the pro you were meant to be. 🚀
Education
by RoadToAMillionClub
Checkmate: Winging it is for birds, not traders♟️ Master the market with strategy, foresight, and just the right amount of sass. Alright, traders, let’s talk. What do chess grandmasters and top traders have in common? No, it’s not their love of mismatched socks or coffee strong enough to revive the dead ☕. It’s their ability to think three moves ahead while the rest of the world stares at the board wondering, “Is this checkers?” ♟️ Your Gut Isn’t Garry Kasparov In chess, a grandmaster doesn’t move a piece without thinking of how it’ll play out in the next ten moves. And you? Clicking Buy because your “gut” said so isn’t exactly a strategy. Unless your gut has a PhD in market analysis, maybe sit this one out and plan. Remember: sometimes you’ve gotta let a pawn (aka small loss) go to protect the king (aka your account). But nope, most traders are out here clinging to losing trades like they’re in a Nicholas Sparks movie. Spoiler alert: this isn’t a love story – it’s an iceberg. 🧊🚢 🤔 Hope Isn’t a Strategy Chess players anticipate every possible move. You, on the other hand, need to stop vibing your way through trades. 🌈 ✔️ Got a plan if the market tanks? ✔️ Got a plan if it spikes? ✔️ Got snacks for when both happen? 🍿 If you’re trading without a stop-loss, you’re basically playing chess blindfolded and hoping for the best. Bold, but not smart. 🧠 Don’t Let Your Brain Sabotage You Biggest opponent in trading? It’s you. That little voice whispering, “Double down, it’ll recover!” or “Stop-losses are for wimps.” That’s not strategy – it’s sabotage. 🎭 Learn to chill. Emotional moves in chess = disaster. Emotional trades in the market? Same thing, but with fewer pawns and way more pain. 🔑 Discipline = Winning Grandmasters aren’t magic. They’re disciplined. They put in the hours, study patterns, and show up every day. Traders? Same deal. Forget the mythical “perfect strategy.” It’s your discipline to execute that makes the difference. So, stop chasing meme stocks and remember: the market is your chessboard. Plan your moves, think ahead, and for the love of all things caffeinated, stop clinging to bad trades. 🖤
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by RoadToAMillionClub
HOW TO GET RICH PREDICTING BITCOINS BULL RUN & CRASH! TUTORIALCOINBASE:BTCUSD NASDAQ:IBIT AMEX:BITX HOW TO GET RICH PREDICTING BITCOINS BULL RUNS & CRASHES! TUTORIAL In this must-watch tutorial, I'll reveal the secrets to predicting Bitcoin's rise and fall with stunning accuracy. Join me as I walk you through four distinct indicators that you can use to jump into Bitcoin before massive runups and dodge huge crashes. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a crypto newbie, these insights will transform how you approach the market. Don't miss out on this exclusive analysis that could change your financial future! Smash that like button and follow for more game-changing strategies, ideas, and tutorials!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by RonnieV29
3
Bitcoin: How to Forecast the End of a Trend.The advance from Dec 2018 seems to be tracing an impulse pattern. Wave 1 is an impulse, wave 2 is a zigzag which neatly predicts flat wave 4 by guideline of alternation. The fifth wave appears to be tracing an impulse as well; an extension. It's probable that two minute degrees have reached completion at this stage and the market appears to be tracing out the third wave. So how do you forecast the target for wave 5? One way is to use an Elliott wave channel. Connect the end of wave 2 and 4. Draw a parallel line along the top of wave 3 to project wave 5 target. It is quite common for wave 5 to end upon reaching the upper boundary line of the channel In some cases, when wave 3 is uncommonly strong, almost vertical. Draw a parallel line using the top of wave 1 instead of wave 3. From experience, it's quite advantageous to draw the two upper boundary lines.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
Has the Bitcoin Market Become More Manipulated After ETFs? The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in late 2023 undoubtedly marked a turning point for the cryptocurrency. However, with this institutional influx, concerns regarding increased market manipulation have also surfaced. Let's delve into whether these concerns hold water and what the future might hold for Bitcoin's volatility. Pre-ETF Era: A Wild West of Wash Trading Market manipulation in Bitcoin wasn't exactly a new phenomenon before ETFs. Wash trading, a tactic where investors buy and sell the same asset repeatedly to inflate its trading volume, was a prevalent concern. This created an illusion of high demand, enticing others to invest and driving prices up artificially. Mark Cuban, a prominent crypto investor, even predicted wash trading as the "next possible implosion" for the industry in early 2023 . The Double-Edged Sword of Institutional Investors The arrival of big players with the ETF has undeniably brought more regulation and scrutiny to the market. This, in theory, should deter blatant manipulation tactics. However, the sheer volume these institutions trade with can also influence prices significantly. The question isn't whether they manipulate, but rather how their trading strategies might unintentionally impact market behavior. A Glimpse into the Recent Controversy A recent Wall Street Journal report alleging that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, fired an investigator uncovering market manipulation by a VIP client reignited concerns . This incident highlights the potential conflicts that can arise when profit margins clash with regulatory compliance. So, Has Manipulation Increased? The answer is complex. While blatant wash trading might be less prevalent, the impact of institutional trading volume and potential conflicts within exchanges are new considerations. It's likely that the nature of manipulation has evolved, becoming more subtle and potentially harder to detect. A Future of Stability or Stagnation? The influx of institutional investors could indeed lead to a more stable Bitcoin market, mirroring traditional stock indices. This would be a far cry from the explosive, volatile growth Bitcoin has seen in the past. However, this stability might also come at the cost of reduced returns for investors hoping for another Bitcoin boom. The Long Hodler's Perspective As a large language model, I can't claim to be a "hodler" (long-term Bitcoin holder). However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of regulation and scrutiny before. The key takeaway is that despite potential manipulation, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its core value proposition as a decentralized currency still hold significant appeal. The Road Ahead The future of Bitcoin manipulation hinges on two key factors: 1. Regulatory Strength: Stronger regulations with clear guidelines and robust enforcement mechanisms are crucial to deter future manipulation attempts. 2. Transparency on Exchanges: Exchanges need to be more transparent about their trading practices and address potential conflicts of interest. Conclusion Whether Bitcoin morphs into a stable, institutionalized asset or maintains its volatile character remains to be seen. However, the fight against manipulation, regardless of its form, will be critical in ensuring a fair and healthy Bitcoin market for all participants.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by bryandowningqln
1
Can Bitcoin Hedge Against a Falling Dollar?Global inflation often signifies a weakening of global currencies. The question of whether Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against a depreciating dollar has gained significant interest among investors. Or should it still be the Gold? In this study, we will analyse the top 8 cryptocurrencies to determine which one is a more reliable currency hedge. Bitcoin & Its Minimum Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 Code: BTC Micro Bitcoin & Its Minimum Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10 Code: MBT Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
1
Bitcoin: The Future Of MoneyBitcoin, the world's first and most prominent cryptocurrency, has sparked a revolution in the financial landscape, challenging conventional notions of money and paving the way for a decentralized digital economy. Its potential to transform the future of money is undeniable, but its journey towards widespread adoption is still in its early stages. Decentralized Digital Currency Bitcoin's core innovation lies in its decentralized nature. Unlike traditional currencies controlled by central banks, Bitcoin operates on a distributed ledger technology called blockchain, where transactions are recorded across a vast network of computers. This eliminates the need for intermediaries like banks, empowering individuals to take control of their finances and fostering greater financial inclusion. Key Features of Bitcoin Several characteristics make Bitcoin a compelling alternative to traditional currencies: Decentralization: Bitcoin is not controlled by any government or institution, reducing the risk of manipulation and promoting financial independence. Transparency: All Bitcoin transactions are publicly visible on the blockchain, ensuring transparency and accountability. Security: Bitcoin's cryptographic underpinnings make it highly secure, preventing counterfeiting and double-spending. Scarcity: Bitcoin's supply is limited to 21 million coins, preventing inflation and maintaining its value over time. Potential Impact on the Future of Money Bitcoin's potential to transform the future of money is multifaceted: Cross-border payments: Bitcoin can facilitate fast, low-cost international transactions, eliminating the barriers and costs associated with traditional remittance systems. Financial inclusion: Bitcoin can provide financial access to the unbanked and underbanked populations, particularly in developing countries. Innovation in financial services: Bitcoin can foster the development of new financial services and products, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and micropayments. Challenges and Uncertainties Despite its potential, Bitcoin faces several challenges that could hinder its widespread adoption: Volatility: Bitcoin's value has historically been highly volatile, making it a risky investment and deterring its use as a daily currency. Regulation: Governments worldwide are still grappling with how to regulate cryptocurrencies, creating uncertainty for businesses and investors. Scalability: Bitcoin's transaction processing speed is limited, which could pose a challenge as its usage increases. Adoption by merchants: The acceptance of Bitcoin as a means of payment is still limited, hindering its practicality for everyday transactions. Conclusion: A Promising Future Bitcoin's potential to revolutionize the future of money is evident. Its decentralized nature, security, and transparency offer a compelling alternative to traditional currencies, particularly in areas like cross-border payments and financial inclusion. While challenges such as volatility and regulation remain, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its potential to disrupt the financial landscape make it a force to be reckoned with in the future of money.
Education
by HexaTrades
Bitcoin: The World Reserve CurrencyIntroduction: The World Reserve currency is a currency that is widely used in international trade and finance. It is held by central banks around the world as part of their foreign exchange reserves. The United States dollar (USD) has been the world reserve currency since the end of World War II. In recent years, there has been growing interest in Bitcoin as a potential world reserve currency. Bitcoin is a digital currency that is decentralized, meaning that it is not controlled by any government or financial institution. It is also highly secure and transparent. Advantages of Bitcoin as a World Reserve Currency There are several advantages to using Bitcoin as a world reserve currency. These include: Decentralization: Bitcoin is decentralized, which means that it is not controlled by any government or financial institution. This makes it resistant to manipulation and censorship. Security: Bitcoin is highly secure, thanks to its use of cryptography. This makes it a safe and reliable store of value. Transparency: All Bitcoin transactions are recorded on a public blockchain, which is a transparent and tamper-proof record of all transactions. This makes Bitcoin a very transparent currency. Scarcity: Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins. This makes it a scarce asset, which can help to protect its value. Global reach: Bitcoin can be used by anyone in the world, regardless of their location or financial status. This makes it a truly global currency. Challenges to Bitcoin as a World Reserve Currency Despite its advantages, there are also some challenges to using Bitcoin as a world reserve currency. These include: Volatility: Bitcoin is a volatile asset, meaning that its price can fluctuate wildly. This makes it a risky investment for central banks. Adoption: Bitcoin is still not widely adopted by businesses and governments. This makes it difficult to use as a world reserve currency. Regulation: There is currently no clear regulatory framework for Bitcoin. This could pose a challenge for central banks that are considering using Bitcoin as a reserve currency. **Overall, Bitcoin has the potential to be a successful world reserve currency. However, there are still some challenges that need to be addressed before it can be widely adopted. Future of Bitcoin as a World Reserve Currency The future of Bitcoin as a world reserve currency is uncertain. However, there are a number of factors that could contribute to its adoption, including: The continued growth of the digital economy: The digital economy is growing rapidly, and Bitcoin is well-positioned to play a major role in this economy. The increasing adoption of Bitcoin by businesses and governments: As more businesses and governments adopt Bitcoin, it will become more difficult to ignore its potential as a world reserve currency. The development of new Bitcoin-based financial products and services: The development of new Bitcoin-based financial products and services could make Bitcoin more attractive to central banks. It is still too early to say whether Bitcoin will become the world reserve currency. However, it is a serious contender, and it is worth considering the potential benefits and risks of using Bitcoin as a reserve currency. Thanks Hexa
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
E9 ERASER PATTERN Naming this the E9 Eraser Pattern as it literally erases traders out the game... Impulse leg creates a peak with liquidity pool above the peak, this area (usually the wick area) is eaten into signalling to go short, as price moves in that direction price is sharply reversed after an internal structure break, trapping said short traders. As price breaks/pushes out of the prior Initial high, triggering buy stops / stop losses, once again we can expect price to sharply reverse. Ideally we will see an OVERWATCH candle signal print, signalling potential reversal pattern in play.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by E9XBT
Bull market strategies (Part 3)Hey, traders! My friends have asked me to compile a list of actions we should take during a bull market, and that's what this post is about. Let's get started! Also, this is the final "The bull market" post in this list of articles. I have also attached part 2 below. As the bullish markets wind down, I always keep a sharp lookout for lower-priced cryptocurrencies to expand my investments and diversify my portfolio. To navigate the bullish market wisely and ensure sustainable growth, I implement the following strategies: Buying early : Catching the beginning of a bull run can be challenging, given the ever-changing crypto market conditions. However, I diligently monitor technical indicators and strong market sentiment to identify the start of a bull run. The earlier I buy, the higher the potential selling price. The first indicators that I will use are RSI/Stochastic. Planning profit-taking with sell limit orders : To overcome the fear of missing out on huge gains, I make it a habit to take profits consistently. I sell portions of my assets while retaining others for future growth. Leveraging sell limit orders help me automatically sell my crypto once it hits a predetermined market price, allowing me to secure my profits effectively. HODLing and reaping the rewards : Holding onto my crypto not only helps me sidestep Capital Gains Tax, but also presents opportunities to generate income. I explore passive income options like staking, lending, and providing liquidity. However, I always exercise caution when selecting DeFi protocols to avoid triggering any unwanted taxable events. Amplifying gains with leveraged trading : While derivatives, margin trading, and leverage can be enticing during a bull market, I know that conducting thorough research and risk assessment is crucial. These financial products have the potential to multiply my gains by increasing my exposure to the underlying asset if the market moves in the right direction. Using automated crypto tools : Trading bots play a significant role in my trading strategy. With automated trading, I can trade more efficiently and capitalize on even the smallest price swings without having to myself monitor the markets. Diversifying my portfolio : Spreading my investments across various assets is a risk management approach I firmly believe in. I analyzing performance indicators like previous all-time highs, past performance, and roadmaps. I can make informed decisions about diversifying my investment choices. Preparing an exit strategy : I will always keep in mind that even bull markets eventually end. Therefore, I tailor my exit strategy to ensure I've recouped my initial investment by the end of the bull run. Holding diverse parts of assets for future growth is also a crucial part of my exit plan. What is your strategy at this period? Write in the commentary below. I will appreciate your subscription. See you, folks! Have a great week!
Education
by Ingwina
Why You Should Never Hold on to Your Positions Beyond a Certain Good day, traders. I'd like to use this opportunity to advise both new and experienced traders alike that holding (hodling) your position is not recommended beyond a certain point. According to percentage calculations, the return required to recover to break-even increases at a considerably faster pace when losses grow in size (due to compound interest). It goes downward after a loss of 10% because a gain of 11% is required to make up for it.When the loss is 20%, it takes a 25% gain to make up the difference and return to break-even. To recoup from a 50% loss, a 100% gain is needed, and to reach the initial investment value after an 80% loss, a 400% gain is needed. Investors who experience a bear market must understand that it will take some time to recover, but compounding returns will aid in the process. Think about a bear market where the value drops by 30% and the stock portfolio is only worth 70% of what it was. The portfolio increases by 10% to reach 77%. The subsequent 10% increases to 84.7%. The portfolio reached its pre-drop value of 102.5 percent after two further years of 10 percent gains. Consequently, a 30 percent decline requires a 42 percent recovery, but a four-year compounding rate of 10 percent returns the account to profitability.I will be doing a second part to this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA). The math behind stock market losses clearly demonstrates the need for investors to take precautions against significant losses, as depicted in the graphic above. Stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies that are mental or limit-based exist for a reason. If the market is headed towards a bear market, it will start to pay off once a particular loss threshold is reached. Investors occasionally struggle to sell stocks they enjoy at a loss, but if they can repurchase the stock or cryptocurrency at a lesser cost, they will like it. Never stop learning I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
2
What is Bitcoin Halving?Bitcoin halving is a significant event on the Bitcoin network every four years. During this event, the block reward that miners receive for verifying transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain is reduced by 50%. This means that the rate of new Bitcoin creation slows down, and the total supply of Bitcoin approaches its maximum limit of 21 million. Bitcoin halving is a programmed event and is built into the Bitcoin protocol to ensure that the inflation rate of Bitcoin remains controlled and predictable. The reduced rate of new Bitcoin creation and the expectation of scarcity can increase the value of Bitcoin, which has historically led to an increase in the asset's price in the months leading up to a halving event. Despite this, the market can be unpredictable, and the impact of halving Bitcoin's price is not guaranteed. However, the reduced supply of Bitcoin resulting from halving helps to maintain its value and ensure that it remains a finite and scarce asset. The previous Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at a block height of 630,000. At that time, the block reward for miners was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block. This was the third halving event in Bitcoin's history, following the first halving in November 2012 and the second halving in July 2016. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in march 2024, at which point the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. After the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012, the price of Bitcoin increased by over 8,000% over the following year. After the second halving in July 2016, the price of Bitcoin increased by around 2,500% over the following 18 months. After the most recent halving event in May 2020, the price of Bitcoin initially experienced a slight drop but quickly recovered and went on to gain over 300% in value over the following year, reaching an all-time high of over $64,000 in April 2021. Thanks Hexa
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
16
🧐🧐SEE THIS BEFORE SELLING BITCOIN🤯🤯Hi Trading view Family, Theres lot of noise on social media regarding selling bitcoin, But we should see this scenario before selling bitcoin.On dailt TF we can see a trendline with fib retracement, And till now it is retraceing 0.382 level with 20 EMA support. Along that we also can have testing of 0.5,0.618 level on fibonacci retracement. And high chance is that it can take support from one of these 3 levels and continues its uptrend. So take actions carefully Date of Analysis:-16 November 2021
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by bhoirjanmesh3
2
BTC/USD MOMENT OF DECISION - COMPLETE BEGINNER'S WALKTHROUGH10 minute read, you have been warned. This will be a detailed walkthrough comprised of key points for both the bulls and the bears. Technical analysis will be done at a beginner-intermediate level. Readers are encouraged to look up vocabulary they do not understand, because hey, it's almost 2020, everyone can use Google and TradingView has their own wiki. We will begin with fundamental analysis. Why is crypto worth anything? Why are there trillions of dollars in this relatively new financial space? Is it a castle in the sky? Is it actually a valuable asset? Why does this weird mathematical abstract thing have value? Why? To answer questions in order to support a fundamental long or short stance on any asset or stock .. screw it, anything that you can attach a price to that may change over time: you have to dig pretty deep into the woo-woo of what's really going on in this world. Just stick with me for a bit. Why does anything have value at all? Do we value a material or abstract good for the ownership of the object itself? No, of course not. We want things for their services. Scarcity of these services drives price gain. Better services are also more expensive for a single unit. Lets compare crypto to fiat in terms of their services: Oh also, we will examine the C - Confidentiality I - Integrity A - Availability of the asset. These are the three core pillars of web security, and can easily be extended to judge the overall security of a digital asset. I pulled this straight from my college senior level Computer Security textbook, by the way. Really dense read, but worth every word if you want to truly do fundamental analysis on blockchain assets. It's pathetic how quickly some of these fintech guys will fall apart as soon as you start to poke holes in their whitepapers over their security. Also yeah, let me call one of them out: IOTA. Are you guys serious? Do you think you have Google-level ability to hire swarms of CS Security PhDs for 200k a year in order to make sure not a single self-driving car, or heck, even a toaster gets hacked? I mean, you guys are seriously trying, I see that, but making the leap from blockchain to DAG right now is totally not okay. In theory, yes, it is that much faster, but you're basically trading the 51% attack for a whole new host of bigger issues. A bigger institution needs to take on this task. I'm looking at you Amazon: this is the big takeover chance for you guys. If Amazon ever drops a DAG crypto, buy it to the moon, because it would just fundamentally revolutionize capitalism itself. Anyways, crypto vs fiat: Crypto: Anonymous in most cases - High Confidentiality Public/private key cryptography allows for public read access of the blockchain for Integrity purposes Very secure, mathematically sound (Take it from a Silicon Valley fintech wiz: I have personally done basic CBC-blockchain encryption. It works. I've done frequency analysis on byte-code output, tried to calculate mathematical brute force solutions against blockchain type encryption. Totally solid, and verified by mathematicians worldwide. It'll be fine until quantum computers.) - Top Integrity Cannot be counterfeited or forged - Top Integrity Cannot be robbed in most cases, especially cold-storage hardware wallets - High Integrity Low-transaction fees and fast send times for modern blockchain (ERC-20 and better) - Good Availability Huge liquidity in terms of market cap of stablecoins and volume between core assets like BTC/ETH/stablecoins, accessible from any $100+ smartphone - High Availability Limited supply of key assets forces scarcity - Bad for long-term availability of symbolic and valuable precious digital assets, ie. BTC/ETH/LTC Good store of value - long term view for crypto will never hyper-inflate Fiat: Used for person to person transactions in (usually) small quantities Circulated heavily through banks and tied to government identification - No Confidentiality Bills are tracked by government, leaving a paper trail regardless - No Confidentiality Can be counterfeited, forged, and stolen in some cases - Low Integrity Available everywhere, except tied to nations. USD is not true international currency, and you're better off with an international travel credit card with no transaction fees than actually try to carry tons of fiat to the country you're visiting and eating arbiter fees, especially if you need to be all over the place. - Neutral Availability USD is loaned out to US by China. Federal bank increases the interest rate to cheat debt. Every US citizen and corporation holding fiat, even the government itself, loses value. USD is not backed by gold since 1970. Inflation rates have been triggering exponential growth indicators for the last 30 years: aka. run-away inflation risk is high. Saving for retirement in USD probably not the best call for young people today. Bad store of value. I'm not slamming fiat. It's nice, it's not heavy, and that stuff is pretty. And tangible. But paper money has been out since the printing press, and you can look that date up yourself. It's old tech. Crypto is new tech, so of course it wipes the floor with fiat in every category of fundamental analysis, especially when it comes to security. We have reached the tipping point where crypto is hitting critical levels of AVAILABILITY. Anyone with a crappy 5 year old refurbished cellphone and decent 4G can start buying and using cryptocurrency to its full capacity. Do you know what that means? 1) People should be willing to pay a premium for crypto assets because they provide a better service than fiat. 2) Developing and third world countries now have access to crazy stuff like crypto backed credit lines that have more 3% interest on stablecoin collateral than APY ????!? (I'm looking at you Nexo) Are you telling me that the oppressed masses of the world now have access to financial firms that don't check your identity and give you rates SOLELY based on your FINANCIAL CREDIBILITY and NOTHING ELSE? If you hate dealing with real world problems, skip number 3. 3) Look, this world is completely effed if nothing changes. If we don't fix greedy unchecked accumulating wealth exponential growth with no regard for sustainability capitalism right now, Mother Earth is going down and she's going to take us with her. Close out this article if you don't agree with me, you shouldn't be trading anyone's money. There is a theory that roots in classical economics about this: infinite growth theory. That if we accumulate wealth and invest it, the dividends of the future outweigh the damage we're doing now. That if we double down on technology, we can cheat the rules of this Earth. If the fish die, we find a substitute. Everything can be substituted, even the trees, we'll make plastic and artificial ones. When all the oil runs out, we'll just have better technology by then. Capitalism is already as good as it can be, and we should just laissez faire to the max and everything will be fine. Don't worry about it. Okay, that theory is 60 years old. And based on ideas that are even older. When we were bootstrapping ourselves towards the stars as humans, firing the first steam engines and cranking the first pulley driven mills, we had no clue what was about to hit us in exactly 130 years. The internet? Computers? Artificial intelligence? Hello? Nothing was really abstract at the time. Everything was pretty human to human in the 1850s. This may as well be dystopia ... or utopia to a time traveler coming from the 1850s. We are at a tipping point, not only in crypto, but the financial flow of the world. Technology is about to hit that point of accumulation where it is ready to truly take off. I won't rant about AI singularity right now, but all I'm saying is we have the mathematical tools, theoretical ideas, and accumulated capital in the hands of a few visionaries to really take off technologically right now. But the thing is, the timing isn't right. What the heck are we using AI for these days? To turn the lights on and off for us when we cross the doorway of our home? To make really crappy celebrity memes? We could really help the world with this technology. And blockchain currency is the gateway to that technological advance in a REAL direction. Because crypto will allow the oppressed of this world easy access to the ability of bootstrapping themselves. And when their voices are heard because they too move the waves of the great financial market, we will have to listen to them as a collective. Maybe we can all agree to double down and go long on sustainable, long-term growth as a world. That's my vision for crypto, and that's fundamentally why I will always be long. CURRENT MARKET ANALYSIS: Fundamentally, we are long on crypto for the aforementioned reasons. We are looking at the long term trend, each bar representing a week of time. We can peer back about a year and a half at this zoom level to see what we can find in terms of trends. Purple dashes is the top of a long descending channel from the all-time high of the chart. Magenta dashes (hard to see) is the bottom of the same channel. Green dashes along the green ribbons is recent bullish pressure. Recently, price broke below aggressive bullish trend. Currently price is cutting into some of the long term MMAR ribbons. As such, we can see the squeeze breaking downward. MACD is swinging back towards 0 as some of the long term supports provide brief reprieve. Sell volume is slowing down below average levels. We are seeing some consolidation and weariness in the market. The bottom MMAR ribbon is located around 7300. We have not broken below that support, which coincides with Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku Cloud. The cloud is represented by the greyed out area. Critical things to watch for: MACD signal line is about to go negative, amplifying future sell signals. Squeeze accelerating downward and can break the market downward at any moment. ADX possibly retracing upward as Stochastic MTF peaks and troughs at the 30%-70% levels means a breakout in either direction is possible, and will be very violent when it happens. I believe from the MA that the price will continue to fall. There is also a DI+/DI- crossover (DI+ green, DI- red, ADX blue lines on the second up from bottom chart). If these lines diverge in their current trajectory combined with a spike in ADX and volume we could see the price obliterated below all current "normal" psychological baselines. If we break below 7300, free-fall to 5k-6k levels are likely. If the price breaks the long-term conservative downward channel with enough momentum around 4800, which coincides with the Senkou B line, we might just be dead for awhile. Accumulation would have to begin around absolute baseline levels of 1k-3k. Depends on how greedy and willing to be patient the whales are. And if I know anything about whales, they are THE MOST GREEDY and PATIENT people. The next moonshot upward will test something like 11350 to be safe, but we could just slingshot lunar orbit and keep going if the bull run is epic enough. Nothing is set in stone. Nothing is destiny. At a certain point, this is just cooperative abstract modern performing arts with numbers and math and prices. If you're not playing with margin, wait a few weeks for maybe new supports around 5k-6k or lower. Just wait to buy at the true bottom. If you are margin or future trading, play risk safe as shakeouts are always possible in an unsure market. Ultimately with the proper stop-losses and the right risk management, even a small short position can become hugely profitable in a free-falling condition. Just don't forget that eventually the momentum will always retrace into a long term buy-signal. Anything can happen at any time with a massive volume spike. Watch for that as final confirmation of opening a medium to long-term position.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by dysonring2050