USOIL (WTI) Gann & Harmonic Pattern Points to Major Move!🛢️ 🛢️ USOIL (WTI CRUDE) Points to Major Move! ⚡ 📊
💹 Comprehensive Price Action Strategy | September 2025 Edition 🎯
📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT
Asset: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE/WTI CASH)
Current Closing Price: $64.413
Date: September 6, 2025
Market Status: 🔴 Critical Support Zone Testing
🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $64.413, positioned at a crucial technical juncture. Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a bearish-to-neutral bias with potential for a significant reversal if key support levels hold. The convergence of multiple technical indicators suggests heightened volatility ahead, presenting both risk and opportunity for astute traders.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
🕯️ Candlestick Pattern Analysis
The recent price action has formed a Bullish Hammer pattern at the $64.00 psychological support level, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. This formation, combined with increasing volume, indicates possible accumulation phase initiation.
Key Patterns Identified:
- ✅ Bullish Hammer at support
- ⚠️ Evening Star formation on 4H chart
- 📍 Doji cluster indicating indecision
🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis
Current wave count suggests we're completing Wave 5 of a larger corrective structure:
Primary Count: Completing Wave C of ABC correction
Alternative Count: Wave 4 consolidation before final Wave 5 push
Target Zones:
- Bullish: $72.50-$74.00 (Wave 5 extension)
- Bearish: $58.00-$60.00 (Wave C completion)
📐 Harmonic Patterns
A Bullish Bat Pattern is forming on the daily timeframe:
- X: $78.45 (Recent High)
- A: $61.20 (Recent Low)
- B: $71.85 (0.618 Retracement)
- C: $64.41 (Current Price)
- D: $59.80-$60.50 (Projected - 0.886 XA)
Trading Implication: Watch for reversal signals near $60.00 for high-probability long entries.
🔄 Wyckoff Analysis
Current market structure suggests:
Phase: Potential Spring Test within Trading Range
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent decline = Lack of selling pressure
Smart Money Behavior: Accumulation signals emerging
Projected Move: Re-accumulation before markup phase
📊 W.D. Gann Analysis
Gann Square of 9 Calculations:
- Current Price: $64.413 sits on 225° angle
- Next Resistance: $68.00 (270° angle)
- Critical Support: $61.00 (180° angle)
Gann Time Cycles:
- September 15, 2025: Major time pivot ⏰
- September 22, 2025: Secondary cycle completion
Gann Fan Analysis:
- Price respecting 2x1 angle from July low
- Break above 1x1 angle at $66.50 signals trend change
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Analysis
Current Position: Price below cloud - Bearish bias
Tenkan-sen: $65.80 (Immediate resistance)
Kijun-sen: $67.25 (Major resistance)
Cloud Support: $62.00-$63.50
Chikou Span: Bearish, below price 26 periods ago
📉 KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS
📊 RSI (14-Period)
Current Reading: 42.5
Status: Approaching oversold territory
Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on 4H chart
Signal: Potential reversal zone approaching
📈 Bollinger Bands
Upper Band: $68.20
Middle Band (20 SMA): $65.85
Lower Band: $63.50
Current Position: Testing lower band
Volatility: Bands contracting - Breakout imminent
💹 VWAP Analysis
Daily VWAP: $64.85
Weekly Anchored VWAP: $66.20
Monthly VWAP: $67.50
Volume Profile POC: $65.00 (High volume node)
📊 Moving Averages Confluence
20 EMA: $65.85 ⬇️
50 SMA: $67.20 ⬇️
100 EMA: $69.50 ⬇️
200 SMA: $71.00 ⬇️
Status: Death cross on daily (50/200) - Bearish medium-term
🎯 TRADING STRATEGY
⚡ INTRADAY TRADING (5M-1H)
LONG SETUP 🟢
Entry Zone: $63.80-$64.20
Stop Loss: $63.40 (-1%)
Target 1: $64.80 (+1.5%)
Target 2: $65.40 (+2.5%)
Target 3: $66.00 (+3.5%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.5
SHORT SETUP 🔴
Entry Zone: $65.60-$65.90
Stop Loss: $66.30 (-1%)
Target 1: $65.00 (-1.5%)
Target 2: $64.40 (-2.5%)
Target 3: $63.80 (-3.5%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.5
📈 SWING TRADING (4H-DAILY)
BULLISH SCENARIO 🚀
Entry: $64.00-$64.50 (Current levels)
Stop Loss: $61.50 (-4%)
Target 1: $68.00 (+5.5%)
Target 2: $72.00 (+11.8%)
Target 3: $75.50 (+17.2%)
Position Size: 2% portfolio risk
BEARISH SCENARIO 📉
Entry: $65.80-$66.20 (Resistance retest)
Stop Loss: $67.50 (+2%)
Target 1: $62.00 (-6%)
Target 2: $59.50 (-10%)
Target 3: $57.00 (-14%)
Position Size: 1.5% portfolio risk
🗓️ WEEKLY FORECAST
Monday-Tuesday (Sept 9-10) 📅
- Expected Range: $63.50-$65.80
- Bias: Neutral with bullish undertone
- Key Level: Watch $64.00 support hold
Wednesday-Thursday (Sept 11-12) 📅
- Expected Range: $64.00-$67.00
- Bias: Potential breakout day
- Catalyst: EIA Inventory Data
Friday (Sept 13) 📅
- Expected Range: $65.00-$68.50
- Bias: Trend continuation
- Note: Options expiry volatility
🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS
Geopolitical Factors 🌐
- ⚠️ Middle East tensions supporting price floor
- 🇨🇳 China demand concerns capping upside
- 🇺🇸 SPR refill discussions providing support
Supply/Demand Dynamics ⚖️
- OPEC+ production cuts extended
- US shale production moderating
- Global inventory draws accelerating
Economic Indicators 📊
- Dollar Index weakening (Bullish for Oil)
- Global growth concerns (Bearish pressure)
- Inflation expectations rising (Supportive)
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT
Position Sizing Guidelines 💰
Intraday: Max 1-2% account risk per trade
Swing: Max 3-5% account risk per position
Correlation Risk: Monitor energy sector exposure
Stop Loss Strategies 🛡️
1. ATR-Based: 1.5x ATR from entry
2. Structure-Based: Below/above key S/R levels
3. Time-Based: Exit if no movement in 2-3 candles
Risk Factors ⚠️
- 🔴 Break below $61.50 invalidates bullish thesis
- 🔴 Unexpected OPEC+ policy changes
- 🔴 Rapid Dollar strengthening
- 🟢 Surprise inventory draws
- 🟢 Geopolitical escalation
🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
SUPPORT LEVELS 🟢
S1: $63.50 (Immediate)
S2: $61.50 (Critical)
S3: $59.00 (Major)
S4: $57.00 (Yearly Low)
RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴
R1: $65.80 (Immediate)
R2: $67.25 (Daily 50MA)
R3: $69.50 (Daily 100MA)
R4: $72.00 (Major)
💡 PRO TRADING TIPS
1. 🎯 Best Entry Times: London/NY overlap (8-11 AM EST)
2. 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for >20% above average
3. 🔄 Correlation Trades: Monitor USD/CAD inverse relationship
4. ⏰ Avoid Trading: 30 mins before/after EIA releases
5. 📈 Scale Strategy: Add to winners, not losers
🔮 MONTH-END PRICE TARGETS
September 2025 Projections:
Bullish Target: $72.00-$74.00 🎯
Base Case: $66.00-$68.00 📊
Bearish Target: $58.00-$60.00 📉
Probability Assessment:
- Bullish Scenario: 35% 📈
- Base Case: 45% ➡️
- Bearish Scenario: 20% 📉
📌 CONCLUSION & ACTION PLAN
USOIL presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at current levels. The confluence of technical support at $64.00, combined with oversold conditions and potential harmonic pattern completion, suggests a tactical long position with tight risk management is warranted.
Recommended Strategy:
1. Primary: Accumulate long positions $63.50-$64.50
2. Alternative: Wait for breakout above $66.00 for momentum trades
3. Hedge: Consider put options if below $61.50
📝 TRADING CHECKLIST
Before entering any position:
- ✅ Confirm volume supports move
- ✅ Check RSI for divergences
- ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment
- ✅ Set stop loss before entry
- ✅ Calculate position size
- ✅ Review correlation with DXY
- ✅ Check economic calendar
- ✅ Assess market sentiment
🏷️ *Last Updated: September 6, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4*
🔔 Follow for daily updates and real-time trading signals!
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Brent
Brent Crude Breakdown: $61 Next?Structure & momentum
Price completed a three-leg climb into late August but failed beneath a thick supply band clustered around 68.50 → 69.30 and again lower-high’d under 70.80. The last push up rode a rising support line; that line has now broken, followed by two wide-range sell candles closing near their lows—classic momentum expansion after a trendline break. The repeated red “S” clusters over the same band reinforce where offers sit and where rallies have been sold.
Levels that matter
• Overhead supply / invalidation:
First layer at 68.50–68.55 (breakdown pivot), then 69.33, and the stronger cap near 70.78. Acceptance back above 68.55 would be your first caution; sustained closes over 69.33 would neutralize the short and put 70.78 / 72.74 back in play.
• Immediate pivot: 66.73. Price is pressing this prior support; losing it turns the path of least resistance lower.
• Downside magnets / demand layers: 65.79, 64.74, and the deeper 61.98 base. These align with prior reaction lows and liquidity pools where buyers previously defended.
Why the bias is bearish (now)
• Lower high into supply (failed to clear 69s) + rising trendline break = change of character on 4H.
• Momentum follow-through: consecutive strong bearish bodies suggest sellers in control rather than a single news spike.
• Clean downside structure: stair-stepped supports below (66.73 → 65.79 → 64.74 → 61.98) provide logical profit-taking waypoints and reduce the odds of “vacuum” reversals.
Risk catalysts to respect
The chart flags upcoming US energy data windows—inventory releases can create sharp, temporary squeezes against trend. Size accordingly and expect slippage during those prints.
________________________________________
📉 Trade setup (bearish)
• Entry (Option A – continuation): Short on a 4H close below 66.73, or on a minor pullback that rejects 66.73 from underneath.
o Stop: 68.55
o T1: 65.79 (take ~30%)
o T2: 64.74 (take ~40%)
o T3: 61.98 (runner)
o Approx. R:R from 66.73 → 68.55 / 61.98: ~1 : 2.7
• Entry (Option B – sell the rip): Preferable risk if price bounces into 67.90–68.40 and prints rejection.
o Stop: 69.33
o T1: 66.73
o T2: 65.79
o T3: 64.74 / 61.98
Trade management: After T1, move the stop to breakeven. From there, trail above each 4H lower high (or ~1.5×ATR above price) to stay in the trend while protecting open profit. If momentum accelerates through 64.74, tighten the trail to lock in gains on the runner.
________________________________________
Invalidation & alternate path
A decisive 4H close back above 68.55 is your yellow flag; above 69.33 the bearish thesis weakens materially and favors a broader squeeze toward 70.78 and possibly 72.74. Until then, rallies into 68s remain sell zones.
Bottom line: The market has rotated from a rising correction into distribution below 69s, broken trendline support, and is now threatening 66.73. Fading bounces or selling the breakdown targets 65.79 → 64.74 → 61.98 with disciplined partials and a trailing stop.
Brent Crude selling pressure below 6790The Brent Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the resistance, suggesting a further selling pressure within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6790, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6790 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 6500, followed by 6400 and 6330 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6790 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6860, then 6960.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 6790. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Devon Energy: A High-Dividend Setup Worth WatchingA shale specialist with big dividends, when the price is right.
Devon Energy is a U.S.-based oil and gas company focused on domestic shale production, particularly in the Delaware Basin, one of the most cost-efficient regions. It’s known for paying a “variable dividend”, meaning payouts rise when profits rise, and shrink when oil prices fall.
With its smaller size, Devon is more volatile than oil giants, but also more agile when prices are strong.
✅ Key Strengths:
- High dividends when oil prices are elevated.
- Efficient, low-cost production in the Delaware Basin.
- Strong upside when Brent crude rises.
⚠️ Potential Risks:
- Dividends decrease sharply if oil prices fall.
- More price swings due to smaller market cap and higher sensitivity.
📈 Technical View
As someone who appreciates structure in technical analysis, I have to say: this chart is a gem. Clean movements, clear tops and visually logical price behaviors.
Let me break it down:
From its all-time high in 2008, DVN went through a long downtrend — making a series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). For over a decade, buyers couldn’t gain control, even for short-term higher highs.
But that changed in 2020.
That rally brought a long-awaited structural shift: a higher high (HH), meaning buyers finally pushed the price above a previous high. The trend reversed, and the sentiment flipped.
Now what?
The stock has done a textbook pullback, a normal retracement after a strong move.
It currently sits at a critical technical confluence zone:
- The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (often referred to as the “golden ratio”)
- A well-defined horizontal support level
- Structurally healthy trend
- Clear prior breakout
👉 Technically, this is a sound setup: structure + support + healthy trend. If buyers defend here, upside potential is strong.
Regards,
Vaido
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion, not investment advice.
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Nears Its Lowest LevelXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Nears Its Lowest Level Since Early Summer
According to the XBR/USD chart, this morning (19 August) Brent crude oil price is showing bearish momentum, moving towards its lowest level since early summer (set last week). The key bearish drivers in the market include:
→ OPEC+ policy aimed at increasing production;
→ expectations that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which would further expand global supply.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
In our analysis on 5 August, we noted that:
→ Brent crude had fallen to an important support level (marked in blue), which held throughout July;
→ a bearish breakout attempt below the blue support line was possible.
Indeed, in early August the price confirmed a bearish breakout of the blue line, accompanied by signs of rising volatility – the line subsequently reversed its role from support to resistance (as indicated by the arrows on the left-hand side of the chart).
Bears then consolidated their position, continuing to apply pressure and forming a downward channel (shown in red). The question now is whether Brent prices can continue their decline.
From a bullish perspective, there are grounds for demand to strengthen around the key support level at $65.00 (as indicated by the arrows on the right-hand side of the chart):
→ during an attempt to move lower, the chart formed a bullish harami reversal pattern;
→ this level acted as support following the bearish gap at this week’s market opening;
→ yesterday’s long lower shadow highlights aggressive buying activity.
From a bearish perspective, August’s downtrend remains intact – though it may be losing momentum. Note the RSI indicator, which is gradually leaning towards the 50 level (if bears were still firmly in control, it would remain closer to oversold territory).
This suggests that bulls may attempt to seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the descending channel, seeking to offset at least part of Brent’s nearly 10% decline since late July. In this scenario, the $67.40 level – where bears previously demonstrated strong control – could become a critical test of demand resilience.
Tomorrow’s key releases could significantly influence price action: crude oil inventories (15:30 GMT+3) and the FOMC minutes (21:00 GMT+3).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Could Face Negative Pressure Ahead of Putin - Trump TalkBrent crude is attempting to recover ahead of the scheduled Putin–Trump discussions. A ceasefire agreement combined with the potential return of Russian oil to global markets could have a negative impact on prices. The broader downtrend is still intact, but recent downside momentum appears to have stalled despite multiple OPEC+ production increase decisions in recent meetings.
If the global economy slows due to higher tariffs while OPEC continues to increase output, Brent would typically be expected to fall below $60. However, the fact that prices are holding up may be an early signal of a potential trend change on the weekly timeframe. But for tomorrow, Brent may face negative pressure leading into the talks.
The 68.25–70.70 range is the first major medium-term resistance zone, sitting below the main resistance at the trendline. Unless these levels are reclaimed, the primary direction remains to the downside.
Currently, the 8 EMA has crossed below the 13 SMA (weekly timeframe), which is a sell signal for Brent. The last few signals from this crossover have performed well. A move toward $60 is possible within one to two weeks if the talks produce a ceasefire acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Declines Towards Key SupportXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Declines Towards Key Support
As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude oil has made two significant moves recently:
Last week’s price increase (A) followed President Donald Trump’s intentions to impose tariffs on India due to its purchases of Russian oil. This could have disrupted established oil supply chains.
The price decline (B) may have been driven by both the decision of OPEC+ countries to increase production and reports of a weakening US labour market.
Thus, there is reason to believe that the more than 4.5% decline in Brent crude oil prices since the beginning of August reflects market participants’ scepticism about sustained high oil prices:
→ this has a negative impact on the US economy (JP Morgan analysts raised concerns about recession risks this week);
→ increased activity from oil producers may offset supply chain disruption risks.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical analysis perspective, Brent crude oil has dropped to a key support level (marked in blue), which was previously active in July. A rebound from this line could happen – in such a case, the price might face resistance at the Fair Value Gap area (marked in orange), formed between:
→ $70.81 – a support level active in late July, which was broken;
→ the psychological level of $70.00.
Attention should also be paid to price behaviour around the $69.00 level (indicated by arrows) – it quickly switched roles from support to resistance, indicating aggressive bearish sentiment. Given this observation, a potential bearish breakout attempt below the blue support line cannot be ruled out.
However, whether this scenario materialises will largely depend on developments in geopolitical risks and tariff agreements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Crude Sitting at Key Support – 69.20 Hold for a Rebound?Daily Analysis:
Price is holding above the ascending trendline and forming higher lows. Multiple rejections from the 68.00 region suggest strong demand. As long as we remain above the trendline, bulls stay in control.
4H Analysis:
Pullback after rejecting 71.00. Now sitting inside the 69.60–69.20 demand area. Bullish channel is still valid unless we break below 68.50.
1H Analysis:
Price broke the rising channel but is now hovering near key support. Bullish re-entry possible if lower timeframe aligns around 69.60.
Confirmation & Entry:
If we see bullish engulfing or pin bar at 69.60–69.20, this could signal a long setup back to 71.00. Invalidated on clean break below 68.50.
Brent Oil H4 | Heading into a swing-high resistanceBrent oil (UKOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 70.39 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 71.90 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 66.39 which is a swing-low support.
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Brent Crude Oil loss of support now resistance at 7050Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 7050
Resistance Level 2: 7130
Resistance Level 3: 7220
Support Level 1: 6800
Support Level 2: 6700
Support Level 3: 6590
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan Explained
Do not forget that today we expect Crude Oil Inventories data
release - it will be 10:30 am NY time.
Ahead of this news, the market is testing a significant daily support cluster
that is based on a rising trend line and a horizontal structure.
You signal to buy will be a bullish breakout of a minor intraday
horizontal resistance on a 4H.
4H candle close above 66,5 will be your confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 67.6 then.
I suggest waiting for the news release first and then check how
the market prices in the news. If our technicals align with fundamentals,
it will provide an accurate setup.
Alternatively, a bearish violation of a blue support will push the prices lower.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Could OIL Slide to $60? a 5% Drop Might Be on the Table? Hey Realistic Traders!
Price action is weakening. Will USOIL find support or slide further?
Let’s Break It Down..
On the 4H timeframe, oil has formed a double top pattern followed by a neckline breakout, which is a classic sign of a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
This breakout was confirmed by a break below the bullish trendline, accompanied by consecutive bearish full-body candlesticks that reinforce the bearish momentum. Afterward, the price formed a bearish continuation pattern known as a rising wedge, which was followed by a breakdown.
The combination of bearish reversal and continuation pattern breakouts signals further downside movement and confirms the shift into a bearish trend.
Therefore, we foresee the price forming lower lows and lower highs toward the first target at 63.21, with a potential extension to the close the gap at 60.73.
The bearish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays below the key stop-loss level at 69.66.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on USOIL.
"UK Oil/Brent Heist Plan: Thief Style Breakout Strategy"🛢️💣 "BRENT Energy Heist Plan 💸: The Thief Trader's Playbook to Rob the UK Oil Market!" 🔫📈
🚫 This is a creative and educational overview of a market strategy. It does not encourage illegal activity. Please trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
🌍 Hola! Bonjour! Marhaba! Hello, Money Makers & Market Thieves! 🤑💰📊
Welcome to the Thief Trading Style — a unique, bold, and tactical approach to trading the UK Oil Spot (Brent) market like a pro bandit on Wall Street. We don’t chase the market… we set the trap, wait, and strike like skilled robbers at the vault. 🔓💼
🧠💡Game Plan Summary:
📌 Asset: UK Oil Spot / Brent
📌 Style: Day Trade / Scalping
📌 Bias: Bullish Breakout
📌 Thief’s Method: Layered DCA Entries, Breakout Setup, Swing-Based SL, Aggressive TP
🎯 ENTRY - “The Vault Break”
🚨 Codename: Break & Retest Mission
Wait for a clean breakout above the Moving Average Wall (around 70.500) followed by a retest confirmation. That’s your green light!
✅ Buy Stop Entry: Above 70.500 after a clean candle close & retest.
✅ Buy Limit (Pullback): Near recent swing low or 15–30 min timeframe zones. Use DCA or order layering to reduce risk.
📌 Tip: Set up alerts at the breakout level — never miss the move.
🛑 STOP LOSS - “Escape Route”
🎙️ "Yo, Thief Rule #1: Plan the exit before the entry."
📍 SL suggestion: Swing Low @ 64.000 (based on 2H structure).
🧠 Risk management is key – consider your lot size, margin, and how many layered orders you're stacking.
📢 Optional: Trail that SL once price moves in your favor — lock your loot!
💸 TAKE PROFIT - “The Clean Getaway”
🎯 Target: 72.200 — but don’t be greedy. If the market gets shaky, exit before the cops (sellers) show up!
📌 Be ready to close manually if you smell reversal.
🔍 Fundamentals & Macro View
UK Oil is experiencing strong bullish momentum, driven by:
📰 Geopolitical tensions
🛢️ Supply-demand imbalances
📊 Positive sentiment & institutional flow (Check COT, Macro Outlooks, and Sentiment Reports)
👉 Stay updated with news drops and macro data that can flip the script — set economic calendar alerts.
⚠️ News Release Survival Tips
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Crude oil $ukoil - Final falling oil has been a barometer of the financial market for the last decades.
I look at the formations and I see that we will see a renewal of the bottom in the coming months, I will not say the reasons, you just need to wait a little.
I've been talking about the fall for a long time, but it's not over yet.
After the final fall, I expect a renewal of the highs, due to the worsening situation in the Middle East, this will be after September
Best Regards EXCAVO
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Move Up Ahead!
Last week, I already shared a bullish setup on WTI Crude Oil
on a daily time frame.
I see a strong intraday bullish confirmation today.
After a test of an underlined blue support area,
the price went up strongly and violated a resistance line
of a bullish flag pattern on a 4H time frame.
The market is going to rise more.
Goal - 68.2
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Gold Bounces from Demand Zone – Next Targets in Sight!By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that today, price once again dipped into our key demand zone (Bullish Rejection Block) between $3245 and $3262, where it faced strong buying pressure and rallied up to $3296.
Currently, gold is trading around $3281, and as long as price holds above $3273, we expect further upside. The next potential targets are $3294, $3300, and $3309.
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Bren Crude Oil important support at 6720Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 7060
Resistance Level 2: 7170
Resistance Level 3: 7280
Support Level 1: 6720
Support Level 2: 6610
Support Level 3: 6520
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Oil Price Falls Below $69Oil Price Falls Below Pre-Escalation Levels of Middle East Conflict
According to the XBR/USD chart:
→ Prior to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, the price of Brent crude was hovering around the $69.00 mark;
→ Following US bombings in Iran, the price spiked at the Monday market open, reaching a high of approximately $77.77 (as we reported on 23 June).
However, after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — later confirmed by statements from both sides — oil prices dropped sharply. This morning, Brent is trading around $68, which is even lower than the level seen before the initial strikes.
Media outlets report that analysts broadly agree that fears have eased, even if the ceasefire appears fragile. Market participants seem to view the likelihood of the conflict escalating into a full-scale ground war — involving US troops and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as low. Shipping through the strait is reportedly returning to normal.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
Interestingly, the $69 level — from which prices surged on 13 June — acted as resistance yesterday (as indicated by the arrow on the chart).
It can be assumed that the longer the ceasefire holds, the less relevant the fears that have served as bullish drivers. In that case, Brent crude prices may continue fluctuating within a downward channel, outlined in red, with the possibility of a short-term rise toward its upper boundary.
Nevertheless, the key drivers for oil prices will remain the fundamental backdrop and official statements regarding the situation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Is the oil market signalling de-escalation?After an initial 6% spike at the open, U.S. crude oil futures reversed sharply—falling into negative territory—as markets priced in the possibility that Iran's latest retaliation may be more symbolic than escalatory.
According to President Donald Trump, Iran gave advance notice before launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, allowing defences to intercept the attack and resulting in no reported casualties.
While Tehran publicly described the strike as “devastating and powerful,” the lack of impact on the ground and the pre-warning have fuelled speculation that Iran was aiming to save face without triggering a broader conflict.
The swift reversal in oil prices reflects that sentiment. For now, the market appears to be signaling that escalation may pause here.
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid.
The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict.
Key points:
→ Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week).
→ Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open?
In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
Strait of Hormuz risk priced in—or not yet?Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension with the U.S., notably in 2011, 2018, and 2020. The Strait is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through daily.
Several banks warn that a full closure could push crude prices above $120–$150 per barrel, or higher if the disruption is prolonged. Still, most analysts view a complete shutdown as unlikely, since Iran also depends on the Strait to export its own oil.
Technically, recent WTI candles suggest that the risk premium may be fading. Price action near $74 shows hesitation, raising the risk of a developing double top—particularly if support at $70 fails. Unless tensions escalate materially, such as the U.S. becoming more directly involved, WTI may consolidate between $70–$74.
Brent and WTI: Is $100 oil just Around the corner?#Brent and #WTI prices are steadily climbing, now reaching $73.30 and $71.15 per barrel. The market is showing strong signs of an upward trend, similar to what we saw in 2021–2022. With global demand picking up and increased interest from major market participants, analysts believe prices could soon push past the $100 mark — especially amid ongoing global tensions and rising consumption.
Standard Chartered forecasts Brent reaching $95 by December 2025, while some outlooks go even higher. What’s fueling this potential rally? Top 5 reasons oil may surge in the coming months:
Global instability : Tensions in the Middle East and unrest in key producers like Venezuela and Nigeria raise concerns about supply disruptions. Any flare-ups could push prices to $90, $95 — or beyond.
Economic recovery : Asia and developing economies are bouncing back fast. With industrial activity rising, so does energy demand — including for oil.
OPEC+ tight supply policy : OPEC+ is likely to maintain production cuts to support prices and keep the market balanced.
Low reserves, limited expansion : Stockpiles remain tight, and exploration has lagged in recent years. If demand spikes, producers may struggle to scale output quickly.
Aviation and petrochemicals rebound : Global air traffic and plastic manufacturing are growing, increasing demand for jet fuel and oil-based feedstocks.
Together, these factors create a strong setup for upward momentum in Brent and WTI prices. According to FreshForex analysts , the current levels could mark the beginning of a new growth cycle.