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UKOIL Bearish Opportunity — Is This the Pullback to Sell?🛢️ BRENT CRUDE (UKOIL) - BEARISH SWING TRADE SETUP 📉 📊 CURRENT MARKET DATA (Live as of Nov 21, 2025) Brent Crude: $64.07/barrel (+0.88% from previous day) WTI Crude: $57.77/barrel (-2.09% from previous day) Market Status: Bearish momentum with descending channel pattern confirmed 🎯 TRADE SETUP - BEARISH CONFIRMATION 📍 ENTRY STRATEGY: Layered Limit Orders (Thief Method) Layer 1: 63.00 Layer 2: 62.50 Layer 3: 62.00 (Scale entries based on your risk tolerance - add more layers if desired) 🛑 STOP LOSS: 64.00 ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Adjust SL according to YOUR strategy and risk management. This is reference only - manage YOUR capital YOUR way. 🎯 PRIMARY TARGET: 60.50 Strong support zone identified Oversold conditions anticipated Trap zone detected - secure profits accordingly 💡 Exit Strategy Note: Not financial advice. Take profits when YOUR targets align with YOUR risk/reward ratio. 📈 TECHNICAL CONFLUENCE ✅ Volume-weighted moving average pullback confirmed ✅ Retest of resistance completed ✅ Descending channel pattern active ✅ Bearish momentum building 🔗 CORRELATED ASSETS TO MONITOR 1. WTI CRUDE (USOIL) 💵 Current: $57.77/barrel Correlation: Direct (85%+ correlation with Brent) Watch for breakdown below $57.00 support 2. USD/CAD Inverse Correlation with oil prices CAD weakens when oil falls Monitor for USD strength continuation 3. ENERGY SECTOR ETFs 📊 XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration ETF) Follow for confirmation of sector weakness 4. NATURAL GAS (NATGAS) ⚡ Parallel Energy Market Similar bearish patterns observed Confirms broader energy sector weakness 5. RUSSIAN RUBLE (USD/RUB) Oil-dependent currency Weakens with falling oil prices Geopolitical risk indicator 🌍 KEY MARKET FACTORS ⚠️ Supply Pressure Increased global production capacity OPEC+ policy uncertainties 📉 Demand Concerns Global economic slowdown fears Industrial activity softening 💵 Dollar Strength Stronger USD = Lower oil prices Monitor Federal Reserve policy ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDER 🚨 Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) - This is NOT financial advice: ✓ Position size according to YOUR account ✓ Never risk more than you can afford to lose ✓ Adjust stops based on YOUR strategy ✓ Take profits at YOUR comfort levels ✓ Market can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid Your Capital = Your Responsibility = Your Profits/Losses 🎯 Trade Smart | Stay Disciplined | Manage Risk 🎯
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by The-Thief
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 12 December 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00 Gold enters the week supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar. The spot price is holding around 4,215 per ounce as of Monday morning. The market assigns a high probability to a rate reduction already at the December meeting, which lowers real yields and increases the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven assets. An additional backdrop is the continued interest from the official sector: according to professional organizations, central banks are maintaining net purchases and, overall, intend to build up gold reserves. On a one-week horizon, the base case for XAUUSD remains constructive: potential monetary easing in the United States, a cautious tone in assessing the economy, and elevated uncertainty support demand for this “quiet” asset. Risks to the upside scenario include a tougher-than-expected Fed statement, unexpectedly strong U.S. data, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking after new highs. As a tactic, we suggest buying at 4,215.50, with a protective stop at 4,195.00 and a target area at 4,337.00. Trading recommendation: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00 #SP500: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140 The U.S. equity market approaches the week of a key Fed decision near record levels: the index is fluctuating around 6,870. A cut in the policy rate would increase the economy’s sensitivity to investment stimuli and ease financing conditions, which typically supports large-cap stocks. Another factor is resilient earnings expectations in sectors investing in digital infrastructure and automation. On the news front, a series of corporate reports and comments from Fed leadership will set the tone for the coming weeks. Key risks to further gains include a future rate path that proves higher than participants expect, signs of cooling consumer activity, and potential margin pressure from costs. Even so, if the course toward monetary easing is confirmed, the base case is moderate further upside. The tactic is to buy from 6,870 with protection at 6,830 and a target of 7,140. Trading recommendation: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140 #BRENT: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80 Brent crude begins the week around 63.80 per barrel amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and supply-related headlines. The likelihood of monetary easing in the United States supports the outlook for future energy demand. On the supply side, sporadic disruptions and OPEC+ caution in ramping up output persist, while high-frequency data indicate fluctuations in actual shipments from certain countries. In parallel, foreign-trade statistics for major consumers signal heavy import loads toward year-end. On a one-week horizon, the balance of factors looks moderately supportive for prices: the combination of rate expectations, supply news, and cross-border constraints in commodity trade keeps a risk premium in place. Risks to the upside scenario include an acceleration in global production in 2025–2026, weak inventory data, and possible de-escalation of geopolitical threats, which would quickly remove the fear component from prices. We suggest a Brent buying tactic with entry at 63.80, a stop at 63.30, and a target at 69.80. Trading recommendation: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Expanding Correction Before a Potential Bullish ImpulseBrent crude has been developing inside a broadening / expanding corrective structure after the previous impulsive decline. The volatility within this formation suggests indecision, yet the overall flow still fits the classic sequence of: Impulse → Expanding Correction → Potential Next Impulse. From a technical perspective, price has repeatedly respected the boundaries of the expanding structure, building a base of higher lows and compressing toward a breakout zone. A confirmed break above the upper trend line would unlock bullish momentum, with the 66.80–67.00 region standing out as the first major target due to unfilled inefficiencies and prior liquidity clusters. What reinforces this scenario is that multiple technical analysts currently view the ongoing consolidation as a corrective phase rather than the start of a new bearish trend. Several independent traders identify the same broadening pattern, expecting a bullish expansion once the correction completes. Fundamentally, short-term sentiment also supports the possibility of a rebound. Demand forecasts have recently stabilized, OPEC+ continues to manage supply conditions, and weekly inventory fluctuations have provided intermittent support for crude. These factors often allow corrective structures to resolve upward before broader macro trends take over. At the institutional level, Goldman Sachs projects Brent to average near the mid-66s in the second half of 2025, aligning closely with the structural target from this chart. However, it is worth noting that EIA and S&P Global caution that global supply could still outweigh demand later on—meaning any bullish impulse may be limited unless fundamental conditions shift. In summary: The market structure supports a bullish breakout scenario. Technical analysts widely agree on the expanding correction framework. Short-term fundamentals allow for a recovery toward 66–67. Longer-term outlook remains mixed, so managing risk above key resistance is essential. This is an observational analysis, not financial advice.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by wnhvjbcn
Crude oil off earlier lows but pressure remainsCrude oil has bounced off its earlier lows, thanks to a risk-on session in the stock markets. But oil's underlying trend remains bearish. Earlier saw Brent sliding to just below the $61 level—its lowest point this week, before stalling. Oil’s latest decline kicked off after reports suggested that Ukraine has agreed to the outline of a potential peace deal with Russia. Now, nothing is signed yet—there’s still a lot of negotiation left - but markets reacted immediately. So why did oil prices fall? Well partly because peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could mean sanctions on Russia may eventually be eased, and that could bring more Russian supply back into a global oil market that’s already pretty well-supplied. More supply equals more downward pressure on prices. From a technical perspective, the chart of oil tells you everything you need to know. As shown by the daily chart of Brent, crude oil continues to print lower lows and lower highs, which is classic downtrend behaviour. The key level to watch right now is $61 per barrel, a major support zone. If Brent breaks below that, then $60 is potentially the next target, followed by $58.25, which was the low back in April. Unless something changes fundamentally, we could easily see a continuation of the current downtrend in the days and weeks ahead. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:UKOILShort
by FOREX.com
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 28 November 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4050.00, SL 4000.00, TP 4200.00 Gold starts the week at elevated levels: morning reports place spot near 4,054.19 per ounce. Investors keep hedging against political and geo-economic risks, while temporary gaps in US official data releases make it harder for the Fed to rely on the usual inputs, which supports demand for safe assets. Into the December meeting, markets see a meaningful probability of a rate cut, easing dollar financial conditions and backing the metal. Additional drivers include steady inflows into gold funds and continued central-bank buying through the autumn. The weekly balance looks constructive: swings in US Treasury yields remain contained, while official purchases and investment inflows provide a demand cushion. Risks to the bullish case include a stronger dollar alongside rising real yields and more restrictive remarks from some Fed officials, which could delay policy easing. Even so, the combination of scarce safe-haven alternatives and ongoing investment demand argues for support on pullbacks. Trading recommendation: BUY 4050.00, SL 4000.00, TP 4200.00 #SP500: BUY 6600, SL 6500, TP 6900 Last week ended with a pullback in the major US indices, but the new week begins on a calmer footing: S&P 500 futures are firmer in early trade, and the debate around the December Fed decision is tilting toward some easing. In aggregate, that reduces borrowing-cost pressure and underpins expectations for future earnings. Through November, strong corporate results helped: realized S&P 500 earnings growth clearly outpaced estimates from the start of the quarter, softening the drag from lofty valuations. Over the week ahead the setup is mixed but mildly positive: the prospect of easier Fed policy, 10-year yields stabilizing near 4%, and softer oil prices improve cost and margin expectations for several sectors. Headwinds include elevated volatility among tech leaders and uncertainty about the timing of subsequent policy steps. In this backdrop, a modest upside for the benchmark looks like the base case unless inflation risks re-accelerate unexpectedly. Trading recommendation: BUY 6600, SL 6500, TP 6900 #BRENT: SELL 62.50, SL 65.00, TP 55.00 Oil opened the week under pressure: morning reports show Brent around 62.46 per barrel. The market is digesting headlines that trim the geopolitical premium and imply a possible gradual expansion of supply over the medium term. At the same time, US commercial inventories continue to trend higher, and recent projections point to stock builds in Q4, which also weighs on prices. On the supply side, OPEC+ decisions for year-end and the working configuration for early next year do not remove oversupply concerns: growth from producers outside the alliance together with the recovery in certain exports continues to pressure the futures curve. A firmer dollar also caps prices by raising the cost of imported crude for consumers. Net-net, the base case for the week is a continuation of the downward drift, with occasional bounces on sanction or disruption headlines. Trading recommendation: SELL 62.50, SL 65.00, TP 55.00
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 17-21 November 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4085.00, SL 4055.00, TP 4175.00 Gold enters the new week around $4,080 per ounce on Monday, November 17, 2025. The market focus is the release of the Federal Reserve minutes this week and the resumption of delayed U.S. macro data after the government pause ended: this shapes expectations for the future rate path and the dollar’s dynamics. Meanwhile, overall demand for gold is supported by sustained official purchases: according to the World Gold Council, central banks kept net buying elevated in Q3, and October marked a fifth consecutive month of inflows into gold funds. On the supply and alternative-yield side there are no notable new factors; 10-year Treasury yields remain near recent levels, which limits the cost of holding gold but does not negate safe-haven demand. Fundamentally, the week looks moderately favorable for XAUUSD: the minutes may confirm a course toward gradual easing of conditions in 2026, while uncertainty in data and the geopolitical backdrop preserve interest in defensive assets. Risks for buyers include a tougher reading of the minutes and a stronger dollar; supportive factors include steady official purchases, continuing ETF inflows, and stable retail investment demand. In this environment, buying dips with a nearby loss limit is preferred. Trade recommendation: BUY 4085.00, SL 4055.00, TP 4175.00 #SP500: BUY 6735, SL 6685, TP 6885 The S&P 500 starts the week near 6,734 at Friday’s close (November 14), while Monday futures trade modestly higher on expectations for key corporate earnings. The main catalyst is results from the leading producer of AI-focused semiconductors, viewed as a gauge of whether the investment cycle in AI and corporate capex continues. On the macro side, the Fed minutes and the return of several delayed indicators will help refine the monetary-policy path after recent rate cuts. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are holding around 4% with choppy swings, which does not add fresh pressure to equity multiples. The weekly backdrop supports the benchmark: anticipated corporate drivers (AI investment, retailer reports as a read on consumer demand) and reduced data uncertainty as releases resume. Risks include softer guidance on AI capex, a jump in yields, or more cautious signals from the Fed minutes. The base case is a measured continuation of the uptrend if earnings resilience is confirmed and no negative surprises appear in the data. Trade recommendation: BUY 6735, SL 6685, TP 6885 #BRENT: BUY 64.00, SL 61.80, TP 70.60 Brent crude on Monday, November 17, 2025, holds near $64 a barrel as the market digests the resumption of loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a brief halt while reassessing the global supply-demand balance. Recent assessments point to a growing surplus in 2025–2026: agencies note faster output growth alongside moderate demand, while OPEC+ signals readiness to manage supply flexibly against the backdrop of lowered official selling prices for Asia in December. At the same time, geopolitical risks and occasional disruptions periodically restore a risk premium, cushioning the pressure from oversupply. This week, prices will be driven by news on OPEC+ discipline, stock/export data, regulator commentary, and the dollar’s path after the Fed minutes. The base balance is “moderately neutral” with elevated sensitivity to headlines: absent fresh signals of a larger surplus, the market tends to consolidate with potential for a recovery toward the upper end of the range as short positions are covered and risk appetite improves. Key risks to long positions are faster non-OPEC+ supply growth, softer Asian demand, and a lack of geopolitical premium in the news flow. Trade recommendation: BUY 64.00, SL 61.80, TP 70.60
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Watch Wednesday Reports for BrentOil market might have entered a key week. While end of US shutdown is in spotlight, 3 key reports will be released tomorrow. International Energy Agency will release November report. In the October report, IAE said that record oil surplus is expected in 2026. Oil demand expected to rise by 750 kb/d for both 2025 and 2026 while supply is expected to rise 3 mb/d for 2025 and 2.4 mb/d for 2026. Meaning oil surplus is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 mb/d in 2026. On top of IEA report OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report and EIA will publish monthly short-term energy outlook report in Wednesday. So far, composite forecasts and forward prices suggest that the market expects oil to remain near current levels in 2026. Projections indicate that in the first and second quarters of 2026, Brent will trade close to 60, with WTI slightly below that level before a potential recovery later in the year. However, futures and spreads have not yet been priced in a low Q1-Q2. Only two factors come to mind that could lift oil prices in 2026. The first is a surge in global energy demand that draws consumption back toward oil as prices stay low. The second is a worsening of the Ukraine–Russia war, which could lead to additional restrictions on Russian oil and more attacks on refineries. Beyond these possibilities, oil still faces a risk of trending lower. Brent oil has been in a downtrend for some time, and this trend is likely to continue in the medium term. Since the start of the year, the 60 level has acted as the main support. The price has dipped below it three times, but each instance was only a one-day spike. While 60 continues to hold, Brent is forming lower highs, which increases pressure on the support. In the event of a breakdown, the base case points to a decline toward the 54–55 zone, with a possible extension to 48 in a worst-case scenario. This week’s reports will be key for shaping 2026 expectations and could trigger preemptive price action in either direction.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by ftdsystem
1
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 27-31 October 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00​ Gold starts the week near record territory, with spot prices fluctuating around $4,080 per ounce. Support comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the October 28–29 meeting and the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the decision. Headlines about a potential temporary government funding pause in the U.S. and delayed data releases enhance gold’s role as a defensive asset, while September inflation came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing the case for policy easing. In addition, fund inflows into gold have stayed strong after October’s price spike. The fundamental backdrop remains constructive: World Gold Council data point to renewed net purchases by central banks late in the summer, and October saw more active investment flows into “paper” gold as market volatility rose and real yields eased. Risks to this view include a more cautious Fed tone and a brief dollar rebound after the decision, but these are offset by steady institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Trade idea: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00 #SP500: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025​ U.S. equities enter the week on strong footing: the S&P 500 holds near 6,790 after softer September inflation data and lower government bond yields. Markets are focused on the Fed’s October 28–29 decision; the prevailing view anticipates another rate cut, which would reduce borrowing costs and support the valuation of future earnings. The reporting season is in full swing, with expectations for double-digit earnings growth for 2025 and a busy week of results from index constituents. Fundamentally, the index benefits from a combination of easing rate pressure, resilient profit expectations in sectors tied to digital infrastructure and AI-related investment, and a broadly steady consumer backdrop. Key risks include any prolonged disruption to federal services that could distort the macro data flow, and the chance of tighter corporate guidance given currency strength and fluctuations in global electronics demand. Trade idea: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025 #BRENT: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20​ Brent trades around $66 per barrel. The weekly news flow is mixed: on one hand, infrastructure risks linger in the Black and Baltic Sea regions; on the other, international agencies flag accelerating supply growth alongside moderate demand. The earlier OPEC+ decision to allow a marginal output increase and revised surplus projections effectively cap prices despite sporadic supply disruptions and sanctions-related headlines. By late October, industry assessments imply a gradual rebuild in inventories and a softer price path into Q4, albeit with elevated headline-driven volatility. Additional pressure comes from a cooler global backdrop and rising non-OPEC+ production, while any Fed rate cut would only partly lift the commodity complex. Short-position risks include an escalation of geopolitical tensions that threatens exports and an unexpectedly sharp draw in weekly U.S. stock data. Trade idea: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20
BLUEBERRY:SP500Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 20-24 October 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00 Gold starts the new week at elevated levels: the spot price holds near $4,255 per ounce as markets continue to expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts and as long-term U.S. Treasury yields ease. Ongoing central-bank purchases and a recovery in investment demand add support: diversification of reserves and the metal’s protective role remain in focus, while trade and political tensions between the U.S. and China keep interest in safe assets alive. Key drivers over the week include the tone of Fed remarks and U.S. inflation releases, the direction of bond yields, and news on global gold flows. Risks for long positions are tied to a slower-than-expected pace of policy easing and a firmer dollar, but steady official buying and elevated uncertainty still shape a constructive fundamental backdrop. Trading recommendation: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00 #SP500: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900 U.S. equities begin the week supported by a move in 10-year Treasury yields below 4% and a heavy earnings calendar. Consensus for Q3 profits remains constructive, and investment in AI and related equipment continues to underpin demand for the largest names. By Friday’s close the benchmark hovered around 6,664; futures point to a neutral-to-positive start while investors watch this week’s macro releases. The balance of factors favors moderate upside: easing financial conditions, stable profit expectations, and no clear signs of a sharp demand slowdown in key sectors. Counter-risks include softness in some cyclicals, occasional stress in credit, and geopolitics. In this setup, buying on modest dips with tight risk control looks reasonable. Trading recommendation: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900 #BRENT: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00 Brent enters the new week near $61 per barrel. The near-term backdrop weighs on prices: agencies and banks flag faster supply growth in 2025–2026, including as OPEC+ curbs gradually unwind and non-OPEC output rises. At the same time, demand forecasts are turning more cautious amid slower global growth and structural trends such as improved efficiency and transport electrification. Trade frictions between the U.S. and China and headlines on U.S. inventories add to buyer caution. Overall, the supply-demand balance tilts toward surplus, limiting upside unless fresh supply disruptions emerge. Risks to short positions include sudden outages, signals of deeper OPEC+ restraint, or a quicker-than-expected demand rebound in Asia. The base case is continued downward pressure with brief news-driven rebounds. Trading recommendation: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Brent Crude Oil – Potential Reversal and Early Recovery Setup#Brent Crude Oil – Potential Reversal and Early Recovery Setup Current price: $61.08 Brent is forming a potential reversal structure after an extended downward cycle. The short-term pattern shows a breakout attempt from a descending channel, hinting at the possible start of a recovery phase. 🧩 Technical Overview • After reaching the $60 area, the market found support near previous structural lows. • Price is attempting to break above the descending wedge, suggesting that sellers are losing momentum. • The structure now points to a possible mid-term rebound within the broader corrective context. 📈 Scenario • As long as price holds above $60.00, a recovery move remains likely. • Stop-loss: below $60.00, under the recent swing low. • Upside focus: – $63.00–$63.30 — first confirmation zone (initial reaction) – $64.70–$66.50 — key resistance cluster and short-term target range – $67.80+ — extended recovery objective aligned with Fibonacci projections • A clear break above $63.00 would confirm the start of the rebound sequence. ⚙️ Market Context • The sell-off from early October appears exhausted, with decreasing volatility and volume on declines. • Energy markets show early stabilization as broader risk sentiment improves. • The next move depends on whether Brent can hold above $60 and convert the breakout into sustained momentum. 🧭 Summary Brent is attempting to shift from a corrective downtrend into a recovery phase. Holding above $60.00 keeps the bullish recovery scenario active, with targets near $63.00, $64.70–$66.50, and an extended objective toward $67.80. Failure to hold above $60.00 would invalidate the setup and reopen the path toward new lows.
FX:UKOILLong
by NewOneCrypto
Brent Crude - The BEAR still rules!Price just can’t catch a break. We’ve got a broken uptrend, a clear inverse cup and handle, and price trading below both the 20MA and 200MA – the classic “sell the rallies” setup. As long as we stay under that red downtrend line, the bias is simple: down. Target sits around $54.68, with momentum showing weakness across the board. And yeah… we’ll still pay high fuel prices 😒 💸 Fundamental Reasons for Downside 🪓 Demand Destruction: Global growth is slowing — less demand for oil from major economies. Probably due to an increase in demand for EV or other alternative energy vehicles in the making? 🇨🇳 China Concerns: China’s recovery keeps disappointing, cutting one of oil’s biggest demand sources. 🪙 Strong USD: A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive globally, reducing demand. 🛢️ OPEC Uncertainty: Mixed signals and production inconsistencies are shaking investor confidence. 🏦 Interest Rates Bite: High rates are squeezing industrial output and travel – both oil consumers. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATIONSB:BRENTShort
by Timonrosso
Stop!Loss|Market View: USDCAD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the USDCAD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.39703 💰TP: 1.40349 ⛔️SL: 1.39065 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The price compression toward the 1.39500 resistance area indicates a potential upside breakout. Given the recent breakout of the 1.37305 - 1.38760 accumulation, a more significant upward movement to 1.4, 1.41, and then 1.43 is also expected. A conservative entry would be best looked for after the price immediately closes above 1.39500. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Long
by StopLoss222
USOIL continues to decline on oversupply concerns Oil prices tumbled on oversupply fears as major producers ramped up output. Reuters reported that ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5th, November production hikes could exceed the planned 137,000 barrels per day. The resumption of Kurdish oil exports and prospects of additional supply may further pressure prices. USOIL extended its decline before consolidating within the 61.50–63.00 range. The death cross of the EMAs points to a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the 61.50 support, the price could retreat toward 60.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaks above the 63.00 resistance, the price may advance toward 65.50.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Crude Oil (WTI) Technical OutlookCrude Oil (WTI) has recently tested a critical resistance zone around $65, showing strong upside momentum after weeks of consolidation. The chart structure suggests a potential bullish breakout, with price action forming higher lows and pressing against a key supply level. If WTI holds above $65, the next upside targets lie at: $67.80 – intermediate resistance $68.98 – major technical level aligned with previous supply $70.50 – $71.00 – key psychological resistance and prior swing high A short-term retest of $65 may act as confirmation before continuation toward the $70+ region. Failure to hold above $64.50 could invalidate the bullish scenario and open a move back toward $62. This analysis highlights institutional order flow dynamics and key liquidity levels, indicating that crude oil may be setting up for a significant directional move. Traders should watch for clean breaks and retests at major support/resistance zones before positioning. 📌 Summary: Bias: Bullish above $65 Targets: $67.80 → $68.98 → $70.50+ Risk: Breakdown below $64.50
FX:USOILLong
by TradeMarketWatch
Q4 2025 Oil Market Outlook: WTI and Brent Crude Analysis**September 27, 2025** ## **Executive Summary** As the global energy landscape enters the final quarter of 2025, the oil market remains delicately balanced between oversupply pressures and persistent geopolitical risks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude—two of the world’s most closely watched benchmarks—are trading in a narrow range, reflecting cautious sentiment among traders and investors. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, evaluates key drivers, and offers a professional forecast for Q4 2025. --- ## **Current Market Snapshot** - **WTI Crude (as of September 26, 2025):** $65.37/bbl - **Brent Crude:** $69.72/bbl - **YTD Performance:** WTI down ~14.8% from 2022; Brent down ~12.3% Both benchmarks have shown resilience in recent weeks, supported by seasonal demand and inventory drawdowns, but face headwinds from rising global supply and economic uncertainty. --- ## **Fundamental Drivers** ### **1. Supply-Side Dynamics** - **OPEC+ Production Increases:** OPEC+ has announced a phased increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September , with further adjustments planned for October. This marks the final unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts initiated in late 2023. - **Non-OPEC+ Output Growth:** U.S. production remains robust at 13.4 million bpd, with additional supply from Canada and Guyana contributing to a projected global surplus of 1.5% in Q4 . ### **2. Demand Outlook** - **Global Demand Growth:** Forecasted to slow to ~1.1 million bpd in 2025, down from 1.8 million bpd in 2024. - **Seasonal Trends:** Winter heating demand may offer temporary support, but overall consumption is expected to contract by 230,000 bpd in Q4. ### **3. Geopolitical Risks** - **Russia-Ukraine Conflict:** Continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed sanctions have injected volatility into the market. - **Middle East Tensions:** Drone attacks and Red Sea disruptions have added risk premiums to Brent pricing. - **U.S. Tariff Policy:** Aggressive energy tariffs and diplomatic pressure on European allies to reduce Russian imports have further complicated trade flows. --- ## **Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment** ### **WTI Crude** - **Support Levels:** $62.90, $61.50 - **Resistance Levels:** $66.00, $68.00 - **Trend:** Neutral to mildly bearish; RSI hovering near 50. ### **Brent Crude** - **Support Levels:** $67.00, $65.70 - **Resistance Levels:** $70.30, $72.00 - **Trend:** Consolidating in a symmetrical triangle; breakout potential remains. --- ## **Institutional Forecasts for Q4 2025** Institution | WTI Forecast (Q4 2025) | Brent Forecast (Q4 2025) ------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------- EIA | $55.41 | $59.00 J.P. Morgan | $57.00 | $63.57 Goldman Sachs | $60.30 | $63.57 Trading Economics | $62.43 | $67.65 Reuters Poll | $64.65 | $68.20 --- ## **Q4 2025 Price Forecast & Rating** ### **WTI Crude Oil** - **Forecast Range:** $58.00 – $64.00 - **Base Case:** $60.00 - **Rating:** **Neutral to Bearish** - **Key Risks:** Inventory builds, slowing demand, U.S. shale resilience ### **Brent Crude Oil** - **Forecast Range:** $62.00 – $68.00 - **Base Case:** $65.00 - **Rating:** **Neutral** - **Key Risks:** Geopolitical shocks, OPEC+ policy shifts, European demand softness --- ## **Strategic Implications for Stakeholders** - **Investors:** Expect continued volatility; hedge positions via options and futures. - **Producers:** Prepare for margin compression; focus on cost efficiency and capital discipline. - **Policymakers:** Monitor inflationary impacts and energy security amid geopolitical tensions. --- ## **Conclusion** The Q4 2025 oil market is poised for a cautious and potentially volatile close to the year. While geopolitical risks offer short-term support, the structural oversupply and weakening demand fundamentals suggest limited upside for both WTI and Brent. Market participants should brace for a range-bound environment with breakout risks tied to geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy shifts. --- Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TheTrade_Academ
USOIL (WTI) Gann & Harmonic Pattern Points to Major Move!🛢️ 🛢️ USOIL (WTI CRUDE) Points to Major Move! ⚡ 📊 💹 Comprehensive Price Action Strategy | September 2025 Edition 🎯 📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT Asset: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE/WTI CASH) Current Closing Price: $64.413 Date: September 6, 2025 Market Status: 🔴 Critical Support Zone Testing 🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $64.413, positioned at a crucial technical juncture. Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a bearish-to-neutral bias with potential for a significant reversal if key support levels hold. The convergence of multiple technical indicators suggests heightened volatility ahead, presenting both risk and opportunity for astute traders. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🕯️ Candlestick Pattern Analysis The recent price action has formed a Bullish Hammer pattern at the $64.00 psychological support level, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. This formation, combined with increasing volume, indicates possible accumulation phase initiation. Key Patterns Identified: - ✅ Bullish Hammer at support - ⚠️ Evening Star formation on 4H chart - 📍 Doji cluster indicating indecision 🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis Current wave count suggests we're completing Wave 5 of a larger corrective structure: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of ABC correction Alternative Count: Wave 4 consolidation before final Wave 5 push Target Zones: - Bullish: $72.50-$74.00 (Wave 5 extension) - Bearish: $58.00-$60.00 (Wave C completion) 📐 Harmonic Patterns A Bullish Bat Pattern is forming on the daily timeframe: - X: $78.45 (Recent High) - A: $61.20 (Recent Low) - B: $71.85 (0.618 Retracement) - C: $64.41 (Current Price) - D: $59.80-$60.50 (Projected - 0.886 XA) Trading Implication: Watch for reversal signals near $60.00 for high-probability long entries. 🔄 Wyckoff Analysis Current market structure suggests: Phase: Potential Spring Test within Trading Range Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent decline = Lack of selling pressure Smart Money Behavior: Accumulation signals emerging Projected Move: Re-accumulation before markup phase 📊 W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9 Calculations: - Current Price: $64.413 sits on 225° angle - Next Resistance: $68.00 (270° angle) - Critical Support: $61.00 (180° angle) Gann Time Cycles: - September 15, 2025: Major time pivot ⏰ - September 22, 2025: Secondary cycle completion Gann Fan Analysis: - Price respecting 2x1 angle from July low - Break above 1x1 angle at $66.50 signals trend change ☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Analysis Current Position: Price below cloud - Bearish bias Tenkan-sen: $65.80 (Immediate resistance) Kijun-sen: $67.25 (Major resistance) Cloud Support: $62.00-$63.50 Chikou Span: Bearish, below price 26 periods ago 📉 KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS 📊 RSI (14-Period) Current Reading: 42.5 Status: Approaching oversold territory Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on 4H chart Signal: Potential reversal zone approaching 📈 Bollinger Bands Upper Band: $68.20 Middle Band (20 SMA): $65.85 Lower Band: $63.50 Current Position: Testing lower band Volatility: Bands contracting - Breakout imminent 💹 VWAP Analysis Daily VWAP: $64.85 Weekly Anchored VWAP: $66.20 Monthly VWAP: $67.50 Volume Profile POC: $65.00 (High volume node) 📊 Moving Averages Confluence 20 EMA: $65.85 ⬇️ 50 SMA: $67.20 ⬇️ 100 EMA: $69.50 ⬇️ 200 SMA: $71.00 ⬇️ Status: Death cross on daily (50/200) - Bearish medium-term 🎯 TRADING STRATEGY ⚡ INTRADAY TRADING (5M-1H) LONG SETUP 🟢 Entry Zone: $63.80-$64.20 Stop Loss: $63.40 (-1%) Target 1: $64.80 (+1.5%) Target 2: $65.40 (+2.5%) Target 3: $66.00 (+3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 SHORT SETUP 🔴 Entry Zone: $65.60-$65.90 Stop Loss: $66.30 (-1%) Target 1: $65.00 (-1.5%) Target 2: $64.40 (-2.5%) Target 3: $63.80 (-3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 📈 SWING TRADING (4H-DAILY) BULLISH SCENARIO 🚀 Entry: $64.00-$64.50 (Current levels) Stop Loss: $61.50 (-4%) Target 1: $68.00 (+5.5%) Target 2: $72.00 (+11.8%) Target 3: $75.50 (+17.2%) Position Size: 2% portfolio risk BEARISH SCENARIO 📉 Entry: $65.80-$66.20 (Resistance retest) Stop Loss: $67.50 (+2%) Target 1: $62.00 (-6%) Target 2: $59.50 (-10%) Target 3: $57.00 (-14%) Position Size: 1.5% portfolio risk 🗓️ WEEKLY FORECAST Monday-Tuesday (Sept 9-10) 📅 - Expected Range: $63.50-$65.80 - Bias: Neutral with bullish undertone - Key Level: Watch $64.00 support hold Wednesday-Thursday (Sept 11-12) 📅 - Expected Range: $64.00-$67.00 - Bias: Potential breakout day - Catalyst: EIA Inventory Data Friday (Sept 13) 📅 - Expected Range: $65.00-$68.50 - Bias: Trend continuation - Note: Options expiry volatility 🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS Geopolitical Factors 🌐 - ⚠️ Middle East tensions supporting price floor - 🇨🇳 China demand concerns capping upside - 🇺🇸 SPR refill discussions providing support Supply/Demand Dynamics ⚖️ - OPEC+ production cuts extended - US shale production moderating - Global inventory draws accelerating Economic Indicators 📊 - Dollar Index weakening (Bullish for Oil) - Global growth concerns (Bearish pressure) - Inflation expectations rising (Supportive) ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT Position Sizing Guidelines 💰 Intraday: Max 1-2% account risk per trade Swing: Max 3-5% account risk per position Correlation Risk: Monitor energy sector exposure Stop Loss Strategies 🛡️ 1. ATR-Based: 1.5x ATR from entry 2. Structure-Based: Below/above key S/R levels 3. Time-Based: Exit if no movement in 2-3 candles Risk Factors ⚠️ - 🔴 Break below $61.50 invalidates bullish thesis - 🔴 Unexpected OPEC+ policy changes - 🔴 Rapid Dollar strengthening - 🟢 Surprise inventory draws - 🟢 Geopolitical escalation 🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS 🟢 S1: $63.50 (Immediate) S2: $61.50 (Critical) S3: $59.00 (Major) S4: $57.00 (Yearly Low) RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴 R1: $65.80 (Immediate) R2: $67.25 (Daily 50MA) R3: $69.50 (Daily 100MA) R4: $72.00 (Major) 💡 PRO TRADING TIPS 1. 🎯 Best Entry Times: London/NY overlap (8-11 AM EST) 2. 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for >20% above average 3. 🔄 Correlation Trades: Monitor USD/CAD inverse relationship 4. ⏰ Avoid Trading: 30 mins before/after EIA releases 5. 📈 Scale Strategy: Add to winners, not losers 🔮 MONTH-END PRICE TARGETS September 2025 Projections: Bullish Target: $72.00-$74.00 🎯 Base Case: $66.00-$68.00 📊 Bearish Target: $58.00-$60.00 📉 Probability Assessment: - Bullish Scenario: 35% 📈 - Base Case: 45% ➡️ - Bearish Scenario: 20% 📉 📌 CONCLUSION & ACTION PLAN USOIL presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at current levels. The confluence of technical support at $64.00, combined with oversold conditions and potential harmonic pattern completion, suggests a tactical long position with tight risk management is warranted. Recommended Strategy: 1. Primary: Accumulate long positions $63.50-$64.50 2. Alternative: Wait for breakout above $66.00 for momentum trades 3. Hedge: Consider put options if below $61.50 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment 🏷️ *Last Updated: September 6, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4* 🔔 Follow for daily updates and real-time trading signals! For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
Brent Crude Breakdown: $61 Next?Structure & momentum Price completed a three-leg climb into late August but failed beneath a thick supply band clustered around 68.50 → 69.30 and again lower-high’d under 70.80. The last push up rode a rising support line; that line has now broken, followed by two wide-range sell candles closing near their lows—classic momentum expansion after a trendline break. The repeated red “S” clusters over the same band reinforce where offers sit and where rallies have been sold. Levels that matter • Overhead supply / invalidation: First layer at 68.50–68.55 (breakdown pivot), then 69.33, and the stronger cap near 70.78. Acceptance back above 68.55 would be your first caution; sustained closes over 69.33 would neutralize the short and put 70.78 / 72.74 back in play. • Immediate pivot: 66.73. Price is pressing this prior support; losing it turns the path of least resistance lower. • Downside magnets / demand layers: 65.79, 64.74, and the deeper 61.98 base. These align with prior reaction lows and liquidity pools where buyers previously defended. Why the bias is bearish (now) • Lower high into supply (failed to clear 69s) + rising trendline break = change of character on 4H. • Momentum follow-through: consecutive strong bearish bodies suggest sellers in control rather than a single news spike. • Clean downside structure: stair-stepped supports below (66.73 → 65.79 → 64.74 → 61.98) provide logical profit-taking waypoints and reduce the odds of “vacuum” reversals. Risk catalysts to respect The chart flags upcoming US energy data windows—inventory releases can create sharp, temporary squeezes against trend. Size accordingly and expect slippage during those prints. ________________________________________ 📉 Trade setup (bearish) • Entry (Option A – continuation): Short on a 4H close below 66.73, or on a minor pullback that rejects 66.73 from underneath. o Stop: 68.55 o T1: 65.79 (take ~30%) o T2: 64.74 (take ~40%) o T3: 61.98 (runner) o Approx. R:R from 66.73 → 68.55 / 61.98: ~1 : 2.7 • Entry (Option B – sell the rip): Preferable risk if price bounces into 67.90–68.40 and prints rejection. o Stop: 69.33 o T1: 66.73 o T2: 65.79 o T3: 64.74 / 61.98 Trade management: After T1, move the stop to breakeven. From there, trail above each 4H lower high (or ~1.5×ATR above price) to stay in the trend while protecting open profit. If momentum accelerates through 64.74, tighten the trail to lock in gains on the runner. ________________________________________ Invalidation & alternate path A decisive 4H close back above 68.55 is your yellow flag; above 69.33 the bearish thesis weakens materially and favors a broader squeeze toward 70.78 and possibly 72.74. Until then, rallies into 68s remain sell zones. Bottom line: The market has rotated from a rising correction into distribution below 69s, broken trendline support, and is now threatening 66.73. Fading bounces or selling the breakdown targets 65.79 → 64.74 → 61.98 with disciplined partials and a trailing stop.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by SupertradeOfficial