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Brent

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISCrude oil: gaining on lower inventories While the broader macro conditions remained complex as hawkish Fed speak and debt ceiling deadlock weighed, crude oil prices managed to inch higher and start the week on a positive note after heavy selling both in paper and physical market over the last few weeks. Supply side news remain mixed with Russian exports remaining firm while OPEC’s early April production cut is only now starting to be felt. Extreme heat across Asia has ramped up demand for fuel oil to run air conditioning and lights while oil traders will be on alert for comments scheduled later today from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the Qatar Economic Forum, especially following the recent jump in short selling by funds to levels seen before the April 2 production cut.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by thunderpips
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISOil prices have remained under pressure over the past month, with Brent crude falling 13.6% amid recession fears in the US and weaker-than-expected economic data out of China. Still-elevated Russian exports and the sizable inventory build at the start of this year due to a milder winter in the Northern Hemisphere have also played a role. We now see the Brent price reaching USD 95 a barrel by the end of this year, down from our previous forecast of USD 105/bbl, as we expect Russian oil output to stay at around 9.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) instead of 9mbpd in the second half of this year. However, this means an upside of over 25% from current levels. We still see several main reasons to expect the oil market to be under supplied in coming months: The International Energy Agency sees robust global oil demand. In its latest monthly oil market report published this week, the Paris-based agency raised its forecast for global 2023 oil demand by 100,000bpd to 102mbpd. It also anticipated tighter market balances in the second half of the year, “when demand is expected to eclipse supply by almost 2mbpd.” While our own forecast puts current global demand at around 101mbpd, we see higher demand in June, boosted by the driving season in the US and more oil being used to generate power to cool down buildings in the Middle East. In fact, we expect the oil market to be undersupplied by nearly 1.5mbpd next month. Inventory draws are set to be more visible in the months ahead. The US Department of Energy said earlier this week that it plans to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery in August, after a record sale last year that pushed the level of the reserve to the lowest since 1983. It remains to be seen whether the tender will be concluded, but we expect to see larger inventory draws as the Northern Hemisphere enters summer while the impact of strategic oil reserve release fades. OPEC+ cuts should tighten the market further amid other supply constraints. The voluntary output cut by nine OPEC+ members this month should continue to tighten the market, while wildfires in Canada’s primary oil-producing province Alberta has forced shutdowns of oil and gas production. Iraq’s total oil exports this month are also likely to be limited amid continued suspension of production in the north. We anticipate oil production will fall back toward 100mbpd in May from around 101mbpd in 1Q23. A tighter market should convince financial investors to return to the oil market, thus supporting prices. So, we maintain our most-preferred rating on oil alongside our positive stance on broad commodities. We continue to advise risk-taking investors to add long exposure via first-generation indexes or longer-dated Brent contracts, or to sell Brent’s downside price risk. We also see value in emerging market energy bonds for an attractive yield pickup versus developed market government and investment grade debt.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by thunderpips
Crude Oil (WTI) 2 Scenarios Explained 🛢️ WTI Crude Oil is stuck between 2 solid structures. Depending on the reaction of the price to these structures, I see 2 potential scenarios. Bullish Scenario. If the price breaks and closes above 74.3 resistance on a daily, a bullish continuation will be expected to 76.57 level. Bearish Scenario. If the market drops and closes below 69.4 support, a bearish movement will be expected to 65.0 level. Wait for a breakout, it will show you the future direction of the market. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
7
HAS CRUDE OILD FOUND SUPPORT @ 77?A bullish close after today's trading will provide more confirmation. however, price has tested the support level at 77 for the past 4 days and bulls keep sending price high every time bears brought the price low... N.B! - USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:USOILLong
by BullBearMkt
WTI may bounce off the support!!Instruments : WTI Possible direction : Bullish Technical Analysis : Early this month WTI opened with big gap up and signaling possible trend change. After long consolidation, WTI filled the gap and currently bouncing off the support level. It is highly likely that WTI may change trend and continue to uprise. A bullish trade is high probable. Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch. Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForexWizard01
What influences the price of OIL?In today’s volatile global market, the price of oil can be affected by a variety of factors. From wars and international trade agreements to financial market dynamics and global economic outlook, understanding what influences the price of oil is essential for both governments and individuals alike. In this post, we will look at how geopolitical factors, financial market dynamics, the global economy, oil producers’ strategies, and weather events all play a role in determining the cost of one of our most valuable resources. By examining each factor in turn, we can gain insight into why prices fluctuate so drastically over time and how to respond appropriately when they do. Read on to learn more about what influences the price of oil. Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical factors have a major impact on oil prices, as the global demand for oil is heavily influenced by political events and decisions. The instability of certain regions and countries can reduce their production levels, leading to a rise in prices. International trade agreements can also affect oil prices: the recent US-China trade war has had a significant impact on oil markets, with supply chain disruptions causing uncertainty and increased volatility. The presence or absence of certain governments in oil-producing nations can also influence prices dramatically. For example, the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya caused a sharp spike in global crude prices due to its immediate effect on oil production levels. Similarly, political unrest in Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries have resulted in supply disruptions that have pushed up prices. Lastly, global political events such as wars, coups, and other acts of aggression can disrupt the production of oil and drive up its price. For instance, when the US imposed sanctions on Iran following its nuclear program activities, it caused an immediate jump in crude prices due to fears about potential supply disruptions from Iran’s fields. In addition to these direct effects on production and supply levels, geopolitical events often lead to market speculation which further drives up prices even if there is no actual disruption to supplies. Supply and Demand The balance between global supply and demand for crude oil plays a key role in determining the price of oil. Changes in global supply can cause shifts in prices, such as when OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries agree to reduce production, or natural disasters affect output from offshore rigs or refineries. On the other hand, changes in global demand can also have an impact on oil prices. For example, economic booms can cause an increase in demand for fuel, while recessions tend to weaken it. When demand is high and supply is low, then oil prices tend to be higher as customers are willing to pay more for limited resources. Conversely when supplies are plentiful and demand is low, then prices decrease as suppliers compete with each other by offering lower rates. The interplay between these two factors is what drives the price of oil. It's important to note that both short-term and long-term forces influence the price of oil; geopolitical events may create temporary disruption but underlying trends are always at play too. For instance, if there's a sudden increase in production due to new technologies used by producers or a drop in consumption due to changing energy needs, then this could result in long-term changes to the price of crude oil. In addition to this kind of market fundamentals affecting the cost of oil on a macro level, some countries may choose to manipulate their own domestic supplies which can have significant implications on regional markets as well as global ones. Some governments even use subsidies or taxes on petroleum products as part of their fiscal policy strategies – practices which can help cushion consumers against fluctuations in international markets but could also lead to imbalances over time if left unchecked. Overall, understanding how supply and demand dynamics interact with one another helps explain why prices may go up or down depending on current events and market conditions – knowledge which provides valuable insight into how companies should approach pricing strategies for their goods and services around energy costs. Economic Sanctions Economic sanctions are a strategic tool wielded by governments to implement international law or force compliance. This approach can take the form of trade restrictions, investment prohibitions, financial transaction limitations, travel bans and technological access constraints. The application of economic sanctions can have a major effect on global oil prices - as evidenced in 2018 when US-imposed sanctions caused Iranian exports to plunge, with an ensuing surge in oil prices across the world. Similarly, US-driven sanctions against Venezuela had a similar effect on pricing the following year. It is not only reductions in production that influence price movement; sentiment can also play a role. Sanctions against Iran saw market sentiment affected, resulting in increased volatility and more expensive oil for consumers. If an embargo were imposed on a major producer such as Saudi Arabia or Russia there could be widespread disruption to supplies and increased pricing for everyone involved. Even if production isn't hit directly by particular sanctions then long term trends may still be affected: An embargo on Saudi Arabia would likely lead to reduced crude inventories over time as production levels adjust accordingly causing higher prices across the board down the line. This could stimulate demand for renewable energy sources like solar or wind power which would decrease global demand for fossil fuels while bringing down crude costs overall. Overall it is clear that economic sanctions can have both short term and long lasting effects on global oil prices - depending upon their scope, duration and severity. Therefore businesses tied up with energy trading or others parts of the industry should stay vigilant regarding these types of events so they are prepared for any disruptions that may arise from them ahead of time. Political Unrest Political turmoil can have a significant influence on the cost of oil, producing instability in the market and creating price volatility. Elections, uprisings, strikes or civil wars can cause disruptions to supply chains, resulting in higher costs for purchasers. Additionally, alterations to United States foreign policy and government regulations can also affect the oil industry. For instance, when the US exited the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and placed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, international petroleum prices rose significantly. Oil is traded globally so unrest in one country may cause an impact on oil costs around the world. In 2019, demonstrations against fuel tax hikes precipitated a global crude oil increase due to worries about supply interruptions from Total SA's leading refinery in France. Similarly, Yemen’s civil war has caused upheaval across the globe - with Saudi Arabia stopping most of its crude shipments via the Red Sea due to safety issues connected to Houthi rebels. Political turbulence could also lead to a decrease in investment into energy infrastructure projects such as pipelines or refineries - meaning that even if there is demand for petroleum products they might not reach customers because of logistics issues. This could result in shortages of certain goods and consequently greater fees for buyers. Overall it is evident that political unrest has wide-reaching consequences for the price of oil both locally and internationally. It is crucial for businesses working within this sector to keep up with current events so that they are better prepared for any potential disturbance or cost variations that may occur as a result of political instability around the world. Financial Market Dynamics: Financial markets play an important role in influencing the price of oil. Large institutional investors, such as pension funds and hedge funds, often make decisions based on short-term trends in the energy sector. When these investors buy or sell futures contracts for oil, it can affect the supply and demand balance of crude oil and thus its price. The futures market is another factor that affects the price of oil. Futures traders purchase contracts to buy or sell oil at a later date, which impacts crude supply and demand levels. Speculation on OPEC production cuts can also have an effect on oil prices, as can political unrest or economic sanctions against certain countries. Weather and natural disasters are another important factor to consider when discussing financial market dynamics. In some cases, extreme weather conditions can lead to disruptions in production, supply chain issues, or increased demand due to cold snaps or heatwaves. Natural disasters such as hurricanes or floods can also cause major disruption to infrastructure and temporarily reduce supplies of certain commodities including crude oil. Finally, global economic outlooks may influence both investor sentiment and consumer spending patterns which could lead to changes in demand levels for commodities like oil over time. As such it is important for businesses in the energy trading industry to stay up-to-date with global developments so they can make informed decisions when it comes to pricing strategies related to energy costs. Hedge Funds and Speculators Hedge funds and speculators are influential participants in the energy market. They are responsible for buying and selling oil contracts as well as futures to take advantage of price fluctuations. By doing so, they can make profits from their trades but also assume risk if markets turn against them. Moreover, their activities may be affected by external developments such as geopolitical events or economic sanctions imposed by governments. Therefore, it is important for investors to keep a close eye on these factors in order to make informed decisions about pricing strategies for oil-related goods and services. Futures Markets Futures markets are an important factor in influencing the price of oil, as they can provide a platform for buyers and sellers to make profits or protect against price fluctuations. A futures market is a type of financial market that enables participants to buy and sell commodities, such as oil, at predetermined prices for delivery on a future date. In the energy sector, large institutional investors and hedge funds use futures markets to speculate on the direction of oil prices. By buying contracts today with an expectation that prices will rise in the future, these investors can increase their profits from rising oil prices. On the other hand, hedgers use futures markets to protect themselves from unexpected drops in price by locking in current prices for delivery at a later date. Speculative activity in futures markets can lead to large swings in the price of oil because participants have greater influence on pricing than actual demand and supply. This means that speculation can cause oil prices to move independently of actual supply shortages or excesses. Regulatory bodies also use futures markets to set limits on trading and production levels, which impacts prices and volatility levels. For businesses involved in energy trading it is important to keep track of developments in futures markets as these movements can have significant impacts on pricing strategies. Businesses should also be aware of speculation by large institutional investors who are looking to profit from changes in oil prices over time. Understanding how these activities are impacting market sentiment will help businesses make informed decisions about pricing strategies related to energy costs. Global Economy: The global economy is a major factor in the fluctuating price of oil. Investor confidence, currency values, GDP growth and trade disruptions all have an impact on pricing. Additionally, as alternative energy sources become more accessible and affordable they can contribute to a decrease in demand for traditional fossil fuels such as oil. Companies involved in energy trading must stay informed of these developments to ensure their goods and services related to energy costs remain competitively priced. Currency Values The value of a country’s currency can have a direct impact on the price of oil, with fluctuations in exchange rates influencing import costs and buying power. A stronger currency will enable an importing nation to buy more oil for less money, whereas a weaker currency will require more of the local currency to purchase the same amount of oil from other countries. Currency devaluation can also affect the cost of imported goods, as it reduces the buying power of a nation’s citizens and businesses. This means that each dollar or euro is worth less on the global market and makes it more expensive to purchase foreign-made goods, including oil. If countries devalue their currencies, they may have to pay higher prices for imports, which could cause oil prices to rise as well. On the other hand, when a country’s currency appreciates in value, it can help reduce import costs and increase buying power. This makes imported goods cheaper for consumers and businesses alike, which could lead to lower prices for oil in those countries. In addition, appreciation of a nation’s currency can make its exports more attractive to foreign buyers who can now obtain them at relatively lower prices than before. This could help drive up demand for domestically produced crude oil and result in increased revenues for exporting nations. When considering how currency values can influence the price of oil, it is important to remember that these effects are often short-term in nature and only apply when purchasing from abroad. Furthermore, changes in exchange rates are not necessarily an indication that domestic production costs have changed significantly - rather they reflect shifts in market sentiment towards one particular currency compared with all others around the world. Therefore companies should remain aware of current exchange rate trends while also monitoring their own costs over time so they are able to adjust pricing strategies accordingly depending on changing market conditions Oil is now the biggest staple on the world stage. Its importance is difficult to overestimate. The entire economy is based on indicators related to oil. But time passes and the economy changes its face and new favorites enter the arena. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
TVC:UKOILEducation
by Lingrid
8