Brent is cooking wave i of (v) of larger wave C. Short-term target is 120-125 range. Ideal target for (v) is 230-250 range. Expect to see completion of the whole structure sometime mid next year. Fasten your belts.
My base case is gold forming a 4th wave which might take a shape of a triangle, meaning it will be in the sidelines for quite a long time. I expect a meaningful trough sometimes in Feb-March 2023, near 1700+ zone. Once wave 4 is complete we should see a strong move to 2200-2300 area to complete wave v. Further details are on the chart.
In the longer term I have two opposite scenarios - base case (red) implies bullish run up to 1.6+ zone, alt count (blue) would bring us to 0.85+. Details are below:
Long-term: EURUSD is building a base for a long term bullish structure. I count impulsive run from Dec'16 to Jan'18 as circle wave a of the 5th wave in the leading diagonal. At the moment it's...
EWT wise Amazon is building a tradeable short setup in 1-2 / 1-2 fashion. I expect a retracement to 3200 area to complete wave 2 of circle 3 of wave A. It may take up to 2 weeks to complete wave 2. Demand zone for the whole wave A resides in the area of wave 4 of the larger degree (blue area on the left side).
Here is how I see crude going down to 30+ zone into the end of this year. 1-2 / 1-2 set up is almost complete, we should see a strong move down starting end of April/early May. First support is 70+ zone, then 50, and 30 to complete the whole structure. I expect a long lasting (10+ years) bullish trend afterwards.
A terribly evil scenario is under the hood in oil. 5 wave structure of (c) of B is almost complete. It might still reach 135 in a month or so, but EWT-wise it's pointing down over the next couple of years. A measure of wave A in log scale points to a C-wave target of 20-25 sometimes next year. I see similar setups in almost all commodities. Guess China/Taiwan...
A closer look at SBER forced me to revise my count - I now consider it has topped in wave v of larger 3. Expect to see a bottom mid 2022 somewhere in 200 zone. This makes me think Russian indexes may show final push to new high in June (countwise oil should bottom somewhere in 60 zone soon and make a final rally above the recent high which may trigger rally in...
See DXY in wave 1 of c of 5 of a multi-year contracting wedge. Looks like we're in wave iv of 1 at the moment, hence more downside to come until the year end. Year 2022 will be the last chance to buy protection from inflation though avoid being long in commodities before 4Q2022.
Bitcoin chose to jump straight to 30k which was my target for the whole wave iv. I still think this was just wave a of iv, expect to see a rally to 50-55k area then another drop in wave c targeting 24k to be followed by a strong rally to 100k zone by the year end. Watch out next year as I expect it to bottom somewhere in 6-18k range by end of 2022.