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Brent

WTI oil - The backwardation points to the lower price of oilIn the past three months, we warned investors about the imminent trend reversal in the oil market. Accordingly, we set price targets for USOIL at 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD. Yesterday, our short-term price target of 100 USD was taken out. Due to that, we would like to update our thoughts on USOIL. We continue to be bearish on the asset and expect the volatility to stay persistent throughout the third quarter of 2022. Additionally, we expect the prospect of a global recession and production hikes to impact the price negatively. Our views are also supported by bearish technical developments across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. Because of that, we would like to update our medium-term price target of 95 USD to the short-term price target; additionally, we would also like to update our long-term price target of 90 USD to the medium-term. Illustration 1.01 WTI oil dropped approximately 25% from its 2022 high to yesterday's low, entering the bear market territory. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX hints at growing bearish momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows crude oil futures for September 2022. The market backwardation hints at lower prices for oil in the future. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows another oil futures contract, but for January 2023. These contracts trade at far less, near the 87 USD price tag. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
17
A complete review of Brent oil with Elliott styleConsidering that oil left its long-term correction process on April 20, 2022; It started an increasing and powerful process and increasing tensions and war made this process more powerful. By carefully examining this trend, it can be said that this trend ended in 5 waves; And now, with the situation balancing a little, the stagnation, the increase in oil production, and at the same time the permission of Venezuela to enter the oil market; The price has entered price correction. It should be expected that this price correction will be in the form of a wave (ABC). Considering the price movement in the lower time frame, it can be expected that wave A will be formed in the form of 5 waves. I believe; Currently, wave 1 is being completed, so we have to wait for wave 2 to be created. If the end of wave 2 is 115; This analysis is complete and you can make the most of the other waves shown. It should be considered that with the price reaching the range of 36-39.5 in the consolidation of the higher time frame, this whole movement can be considered as wave 1 and 2. Tip: We have to see how the trend will be formed along the downward path; It is possible that this entire decline in price can be shown in the higher consolidation of an A wave. In any case, upon reaching the price range of 36 to 39.5, the trend should be re-examined and a new analysis should be presented. This analysis is prepared with an economic perspective; But from a human point of view, I am very sorry for the war and I sincerely sympathize with Ukraine. what is your opinion ? (be profitable)
TVC:UKOILShort
by AllMarketAnalysis_Am
CRUDE Bounced off & rehash...As previously expected, Crude bounced off 95 (95.10 to be exact) and it bounced off with gusto, to reclaim 100 support. The bounce was a fast intraday check-in at 95, and the following day clocked a bullish engulfing of sorts. This was then followed by another bullish day to end the week with a long lower tail, indicative that between 95 to 100, likes a lot of demand. The daily technical indicators are starting to crossover. This recovery bounce is also awesome as it broke down and out of the triangle and then returned back in. For technical analysts, we do know that when this happens, there is a higher probability that there will be an exit on the other side... ie. a breakout is imminent. Note that the triangle was updated by readjustment from previously. In the weekly chart, while the technical indicators are still trudging lower, the candlestick shows a temporary spike out of the triangle only to make it back in. This is a bullish indication IMHO. Taken together, expect the bullish run to meet some resistance about 112-114 in the following days of the incoming week. There needs to be a higher low, that bounces off the triangle support... and then we just might get a bull run breakout in early August 2022. Watch this one! ps. Target breakout (dotted green arrow) and upside target of 165 updated. Pennant pattern (fibonacci) projection also added (dashed green arrow)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
Minor gains to attract fresh selling in WTI?WTI - Intraday - We look to Sell at 100.67 (stop at 103.61) The primary trend remains bearish. The continuation lower in prices through support has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. We look to sell rallies. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 100.00. Our profit targets will be 94.04 and 91.00 Resistance: 101.00 / 112.00 / 120.00 Support : 94.00 / 85.00 / 64.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
OIL H4 Potential drop | 7th July 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 94.96 where the horizontal swing low support is from our 1st resistance at 101.18 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance and head for 2nd resistance at 102.89 where the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FXCM
⭐️BRENT: medium/long term view➡️ The oil market is dominated by panic about the fact that supposedly the price of raw materials expects a significant fall. The G7 countries are trying to limit the transportation of Russian oil if it is sold at a price above the limit. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said that the EU countries would be ready to introduce such a measure after they were convinced that it would negatively affect Russia, and not themselves. And it is very likely that this will be the case. In addition, one should not forget about India and China, which were not "specially" asked about such a proposal for Russian oil . China and India may thwart G7 plans to impose price caps on Russian oil . The idea of ​​the "Big Seven" may have a negative impact on global energy markets. On July 3, the New Jersey edition, citing American expert Patrick De Haan, reported that the G7 idea to limit oil prices from Russia seems illogical. According to the expert, the G7 statement can only aggravate the situation and push oil prices up. Fundamentally, the conclusion is that the current actions taken on the political map by the major powers are more likely to drive up commodity prices. However, it is not worth expecting an oil price of $350 as suggested by JPMorgan Chase analysts. This forecast is inadequate (according to the author). The level of $140 is considered to be an adequate forecast for oil , as the same Goldman Sachs analysts stated. Technically, the price is in the area of ​​strong support $97.63-$103.33 . The first target for growth is at $103 , from there buyers will attempt to return to the descending channel , after which growth to $110, $115 should be expected. Medium and long-term targets are located at the levels of $120 and $130 . The negative point will be fixing the price below the $97.63-$103.33 area, however, in this case, given the current military-political situation, fundamental analysis can reverse the trend in one second. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
TVC:UKOILLong
by TradePlus-Fx
12
The best hedge - is growthINVESTMENT CONTEXT In the wake of robust demand despite mounting recession fears, Saudi Aramco hiked its crude oil prices for Asia's market to near record on July 5. In August Arab Light crude price will sit at USD 9.30/boe above the regional benchmark For the first time since May 11, WTI crude oil fell below USD 100/boe. According to Citigroup, oil price could plunge to USD 65boe by the end of this year, while JP Morgan forecasts oil at “stratospheric” USD 380/boe On July 5, the ambassadors of 30 NATO States signed Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden, effectively kicking-off the ratification process, which usually takes one month Inflation in the U.K. hit a fresh 40-year high, standing at 9.1% in June compared with 9.0% in May. The political stability of the country has come under pressure after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid quit the Cabinet, citing divergences with Premier Boris Johnson in the matter of economic policy-making Prices of corn, soybean, wheat, and several other agricultural commodities fell by more than 20% in recent weeks, largely reverting to pre-pandemic levels as financial players unmounted bearish speculative positions Italy declared state of emergency for Northern regions facing the worst draught in 70 years, threatening 30% of Italian agriculture output. PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about record high electricity prices in Europe, ProfOne's eyes are now set on nuclear plants, the development of which matches well with Europe's ambitious plan of energy transition and reduction of the reliance on Russian gas. Yet, as anticipated by ProfZero, a full-scale energy rotation will take time, and relevant capital investments, to happen. The nuclear plant of Olkiluoto in Finland entered construction phase in 2005 while that of Flamanville in France in 2007; both projects haven't been delivered yet, yet costs already exceeded original budgets by up to 3 times. With that in mind, and recalling that costs of renewable technologies based on solar and wind energy are declining, ProfOne understands why nuclear projects have become less attractive for investors. Nuclear requires the elaboration of new financing models and scaling strategies. Some near-term relief may be achieved through expansion of new small reactors, which are faster and easier to build; yet the vast majority of these assets have not fully come online yet. PROFZERO'S TAKE Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, aptly summarized what does it concretely mean to change economic paradigm: "Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world". Now that Russian natural gas deliveries are sputtering, Germany has posted its first monthly trade deficit since 1991, and the country has entered phase 2 of its 3-step energy emergency plan. ProfZero prefers to resist the urge of calling for capitulation; after all the country can re-activate coal-fired while it speeds up the construction of much-needed LNG regasification assets. Yet zooming out, the theme of energy independence is what actually is making the whole difference between the U.S. and the EU - and shall be a likely recurring theme for the next growth paradigm of the entire Western world Seeing crude oil plummeting 10% in one single trading session can only mean that markets are bracing for a recession. Fundamentals don't lie: according to EIA, the world in 2022 will produce more crude oil than it really needs, with forecasted supply at 100.1mboe/d, and demand at 99.6mboe/d. ProfZero points out that one of the virtues of commodity markets lies in price-formation mechanisms strictly tied to basic supply-demand interplay. Sadly, the disruptions in European natural gas are preventing the same from happening; yet should frictions be erased, it is all too rational to expect also TTF to briskly retrace
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Global recession - short commodities remains the default play Europe now gets the full attention – we’ve seen Germany’s trade surplus completely eroded, turning negative and into the first deficit since 1991 – clearly impacted by the reduction of Russian gas imports. Germany has been heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and the flow-on effect is we could be looking at gas rationing through the European winter and a potential bailout of Germany’s largest gas importer (Uniper). A recession in Europe looks all but certain this year, and this makes the ECB’s life incredibly challenging – they have a deteriorating growth outlook, very high and persistent inflation and worries about peripheral bond yields blowing up. EU Nat gas (NG) prices are not something they can control, and we’ve seen prices rally 100% in the past 16 days, so this is a brutal juggling act for Europe – Europe is in the eye of a storm right now, especially with China maintaining a strict line with its Covid zero policy. News that airline SAS has filed for bankruptcy won't help matters either. Europe may command the closest attention, but this is a global problem. In a world of rising interest rates and central banks hellbent on putting the inflation genie back in the bottle, we’ve seen clear evidence of demand destruction – commodities have been the default expression of this thematic and right now there is just no visibility on growth or what changes the trend – even though the market lives in the future, it feels like this gets worse before it turns around. The result is no one wants EURs, or GBPs, and commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and NOK) find few friends either – the trend really is one’s friend and everyone asks when EURUSD hits parity. So the USD reigns supreme, not just from a relative growth perspective but from an attractiveness as an investment destination. Right now, aside from the USD, only the JPY looks like a compelling long in G10 FX. What’s clear is that the USD strength is feeding back again into negative commodity price action – commodities face a war on two fronts – demand destruction and king USD and this is causing some intense bear trends in commodities, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to think the systematic trend-following crowd would already be running hefty short positions in copper, silver, gold, US gasoline and AG’s like wheat and soybeans. Until we see signs of a turn in the USD then rallies in all these markets will likely be jumped on by the short-sellers. That even includes XAUUSD, which is trading at YTD lows and sold consistently into the 8-day EMA – Until these dynamics change then it feels like gold is destined for $1750. If the USD remains bid, perhaps look at gold exposures in AUD or EUR (XAUAUD or XAUEUR) and there may be scope for a topside range breakout. However, even then, I will want to wait for a move to take place and let the market reveal itself. The elephant in the room, aside from EU NG is crude – Our SpotCrude price briefly traded below $100 and SpotBrent into 103.53, although have been supported below the figure. Headlines that one US bank is projecting that Brent crude could head to $65/bbl in a recession may have impacted, but it’s the demand side of the supply/demand equation which is being examined and we heard concerns of falling demand from Vitol Group (one of the world’s largest oil traders) on Sunday. The world could use a weaker crude price, although from a risk perspective it's better if it’s driven by additional supply and not falling demand – the issue with supply is that OPEC is struggling to meet current quotas as it is so additional supply seems a tall order. Having broken the April trend support, the rising probability is SpotCrude looks to test the March/April lows of $93.47/93.98 – selling rallies into 104.00. Commodities are the default expression of recession risk – crude and gold get the flow from clients but for those who like momentum and trend this is the space to pay attention to.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Pepperstone
1
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products. In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs. However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring. USOIL D1
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
8
Oil Futures Settle Lower On Demand WorriesDespite concerns about a potential recession, oil prices were still around $114 a barrel today as supply concerns outweighed concerns about a potential decline in demand. In the latest developments, workers in Norway went on strike, which is expected to cut the country's oil production by around 130,000 barrels a day. Despite the global economic recovery, oil prices are still up more than 50% this year as the conflict in Ukraine and the lack of supply from other producers such as Russia have raised concerns about the supply of oil. OPEC+ has also been struggling to boost its production due to various factors. In addition, the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy has also triggered a sell-off in commodities. Investors are also closely monitoring the situation in China, where the country is still experiencing sporadic outbreaks of the virus.
TVC:UKOIL
by bbitar
The heat may be offINVESTMENT CONTEXT Inflation in Eurozone climbed from 8.1% in May to 8.6% in June, growing in 17 of 19 countries, with the notable exception of Germany (slide from 8.7% to 8.2%) and the Netherlands (from 10.2% to 9.9%). ECB officially scrapped its EUR 20bn/months bond-buying program on July 1 S&P 500 energy sub-index fell 17% in June, ranking as the worst-performing within the index While U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced “the single biggest tax cut in a decade”, estimated in of GBP 6bn (USD 7.4bn), France slashed its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 4% to 2.5% After lifting objections, Turkey said that it could still block Finland and Sweden’s accession to Nato in case if Nordic countries failed to meet the demand of Kurdish separatists extradition. Inflation in the country is still just a hair below 80%, as the Central Bank refuses to raise interest rates, leaving analysts to presume capital controls may be introduced to stop the bleeding On July 3, Russia announced its full control of Luhansk region in Eastern Ukraine, after seizing the city of Lycychansk, the last Ukrainian holdout in the area Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital suspended trading, deposits, loyalty rewards and withdrawals on July 1, after sending a default notice to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) U.S. markets closed on July 4 for Independence Day; European markets regularly open PROFONE'S TAKE Global equity markets recorded their worst half of a year since 1970, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq collapsing 21% and 30%, respectively. Deep risk-off sentiment still grips most areas of the market, fueled by growing inflation (8.6% in June after 8.1% in May in Eurozone; U.S. print expected in the coming days) and next steps of tightening monetary policy (in July, both the Fed and the ECB are expected to hike rates by 75 bps and 25-50 bps, respectively). The correction in energy and industrial metals prices was caused by mounting recession fears, while also a potentially better than forecasted harvest season in some parts of globe (U.S., Europe, Australia) could ease the pressure on consumer prices. Still, Profs don’t see the emergence of any major catalyst that could trigger a sustained reversal: for instance, on the macro front, there are no clear-cut signs of a ceasefire happening in Ukraine, thus leaving the threat of supply chain disruptions looming. PROFZERO'S TAKE As early as May 6, ProfZero placed global credit markets on particular watch, as much of the global pressures could be expected not only to raise the costs of business financing; but in more dire terms, to trigger defaults on weakest borrowers. On May 20, Sri Lanka defaulted for the first time in its history, as the economy was crushed by unsustainable fuel and food prices; at the time of writing, also the State of Laos faces fuel shortages and growing default risk. ProfZero is not particularly concerned by Russia's technical default, which has been clearly caused by the effect of sanctions; in contrast, what catches its attention is the state of financial health of several European countries, and chiefly Italy, who relied excessively on both low interest rates and the ECB role of buyer of last resort. Analysts have already dubbed ECB President Christine Lagarde messages on fragmentation as "vague" - and nothing irritates traders more than ambiguity, save, perhaps, short sellers, who indeed are piling up bear positions (Ray Dalio's Bridgewater has amassed some USD 10.5bn sell-side positions). Europe is the epicenter of this bear market - and ProfZero unfortunately sees scant chances for a quick turnaround ProfZero is also unfazed by the purported fall in commodity prices. While certainly the prices of cotton, wheat, copper and iron ore are are down even up to more than 30%, European natural gas is trading at EUR 155/MWh for 1-month deliveries - compared to EUR 22.11/MWh on July 4, 2021. Inflation is certainly receding from certain corners of the economy - but the European energy tangle remains far from being undone
by ProfZero
1