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2025 BITCOIN TARGETS: Reality Check Forecasting is easy. Being right is hard. 1. When Targets Turn Into Illusions Look at this chart. Bitcoin at $90,000. Sixteen days left in 2025. And every “expert” target — JPMorgan, VanEck, Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, Kiyosaki, BlackRock, Cathie Wood — all of them missed. Every single one. Why? Because it’s almost impossible to stay objective when you own the asset you’re predicting. When you hold a position, your mind paints infinity. You stop seeing the market — you start seeing your hopes. You stop analyzing — you start believing. These price targets were never forecasts. They were wishful thinking, dressed up as analysis. 2. My Position — Stay Sane In my posts, I always try to remain objective and grounded. I don’t trade emotions. I observe, analyze, and share what I actually see — not what I want to see. And here’s what I see now: Those bullish targets might still be achieved one day — but not by the end of 2025. Not even by the end of 2026. According to my cycle analysis, the next real bull market peak will come around 2029. And even then, it’s hard to name a precise number. But if history repeats — and each new cycle doubles the previous one — then levels like $250k, $275k, or even $300k are possible. Still, even those words must be questioned. Because the market has one constant lesson — humility. And those who sound most confident are usually the first to be wrong. 3. Why Bitcoin Will Keep Growing Anyway Despite all the chaos and uncertainty, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin will keep growing in the long run. The reasons are structural, not emotional: mining difficulty keeps rising, competition among miners is increasing, the industry is expanding, institutional interest is growing, the circulating supply is shrinking, the market is becoming more concentrated, leveraged, and volatile. We’re witnessing moves that a few years ago were unimaginable. A $20,000 daily swing is no longer shocking — it’s the new normal. Just look back at October 11th — Bitcoin dropped $20,000 in a single day. That’s a record. And it will be broken again. Because the game keeps escalating. Bitcoin won’t die. Unlike thousands of altcoins that fade into oblivion, Bitcoin has too many players, too much capital, too much gravity to disappear. 4. Where We Are Now Let’s be honest — we’re not even halfway through this bear market. Not even close. Maybe 20% of the way. The real pain is still ahead — disappointment, capitulation, and exhaustion. And not only among retail traders. Funds, miners, corporations — all of them will face it. Every cycle demands maximum rejection. It needs the crowd to give up. That’s how markets reset. Bear markets are not crashes — they’re slow, grinding declines that strip away hope. They don’t destroy capital first — they destroy conviction. 5. The Bicycle Metaphor If you plan to stay in this market the whole way down, I’ll compare you to a man riding a bicycle downhill. He tells himself: “Yes, I’m going down, but I’ll keep pedaling. When others quit, I’ll be ahead.” But the truth is — when he reaches the bottom, and the next uphill begins, he’ll have no strength left to climb. He’ll be burned out — mentally, financially, emotionally. He won’t make it up the next mountain. 6. What’s Happening Now Right now, we’re in a correction phase. The impulse move is over. The small bounces you see — they’re not a reversal, just temporary relief before the next leg down. This is not the start of a new bull market — it’s a pause between declines. The macro setup doesn’t support growth yet. The structure isn’t there. The market simply isn’t ready. Every cycle gets heavier. Each one demands more pain, more time, more cleansing. 7. The Bottom Line I have no illusions. No fantasies about instant rallies to $300k. Only realism and patience. The market will sort itself out. But by the time the next real bull run begins, most of those who are still “pedaling downhill” now won’t have the energy — or the faith — to climb again. Best regards, EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
53
Bitcoin: Weakness Is Where Opportunity Lurks.Bitcoin is coming off a double top lower high within what appears to be a bearish triangle formation. While this pattern is going to elicit bearish reactions from the herd (experts), it is important to ANTICIPATE potential turning points that can catch everyone off guard. While Bitcoin can break lower and potentially test the low 70Ks, it can ALSO hold the 80K area, form a double bottom/failed low and reverse. Such a formation would confirm a HIGHER LOW on the larger time frames like weekly. How you navigate this situation will totally depend on the time horizon component of your strategy. The illustration on this chart emphasizes the double bottom scenario. The arrow points to minor support areas to watch price behavior for reversals. The time frame you use to observe will depend on what type of trader you are: day, swing or position. The reason I anticipate price will find support is because the broader fundamentals are still generally bullish, particularly when it comes to future actions by the Fed. It is important to realize, they just cut again and while no futures cuts were announced for the near term, it takes TIME for these recent cuts to be felt, like at least half a year. Sine Bitcoin is anti inflationary, it is likely to benefit. Another important point is : OPPORTUNITY often lurks in UGLY markets, NOT when Bitcoin is pushing 126K. Why were NONE of the experts calling for Bitcoin to have a healthy correction when it was pushing the highs? They were too busy telling everyone "its going to 200K from here". The herd mentality is REAL and a significant component of human nature. While I also had no idea that this correction was going to unfold, I at LEAST warned people that the RISK was extremely high at those levels. This point further illustrates that NOW is the time be to interested, NOT fearful. It's like going to the supermarket and your favorite food is on sale. What do you do? Stock up on it because normally it costs more, so you perceive value. The concept is the same in the financial markets, its just not as simple because substantial amounts of capital and leverage are also part of the equation. The optimal mindset for Bitcoin in the coming weeks is: Maintain an OPEN mind because ANYTHING can happen. Be PREPARED for the possibility of price reversing at the major support levels because the broader price structure supports such a scenario. It's ALL about IF the market confirms or NOT. With this in mind, IF it breaks instead, you should at least know how to adjust by stepping aside if you are on smaller time frames, and being enthusiastic to accumulate relative to your risk tolerance as a position trader or investor. Also note: 88K is the Wave 1, Wave 4 overlap that I have talked about many times. So far price has not spent a significant amount of time below this level. IF it breaks with conviction and stays below for days or weeks, that can be interpreted as we are in the broader Wave 2 which can increase the chances of more of an extreme corrective move within a structure that is still considered bullish. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
The Real Bitcoin Bottom: It’s in the Power BillThe Cost of Mining 1 BTC – Autumn 2025 Deep Dive First of all, I want to say that I already made a similar publication in 2020 about the cost of Bitcoin, and we reached these levels (the chart is below). Introduction: The Bitcoin mining industry in Autumn 2025 stands at a crossroads. Network difficulty has soared to all-time highs, squeezing miner profit margins as hashpower races ahead of price. The hashprice – the daily revenue per unit of hashing power – has slumped to record lows around $54 per PH/s-day (down from ~$70 a year ago). Analysts expect this metric to languish between $50 and $32 until the next halving in 2028, underscoring how challenging the economics have become. In this environment, understanding the cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is more crucial than ever. Below, we present a detailed comparison of popular ASIC miners and analyze which rigs remain profitable (or not) at current prices. We’ll also explore how the cost of production acts like a magnetic price level for BTC – often drawing the market down to this “floor” before a rebound – and what that means for investors now. Cost to Mine 1 BTC by ASIC Miner Model (at $0.03–$0.10/kWh) To quantify Bitcoin’s production cost, we compare leading ASIC miners from Bitmain, MicroBT, Canaan, Bitdeer, and Block. Table 1 below shows key specs and the estimated cost to mine one BTC under different electricity prices (from very cheap $0.03/kWh to pricey $0.10/kWh): Key Takeaways: Electricity price is the dominant factor in mining cost. At an ultra-cheap $0.03/kWh (possible in regions with subsidized power or stranded energy), even older-generation miners can produce BTC for well under $30k per coin. In our table, all models have a cost per BTC between ~$21k and $27k at $0.03/kWh – a fraction of Bitcoin’s current ~$90k–$95k market price. At a mid-tier rate of $0.05/kWh (typical for industrial miners in energy-rich areas), the top machines still show healthy margins. Bitmain’s flagship S21 XP leads with roughly $36k cost per BTC, while other new-gen rigs fall in the ~$39k–$45k range. These figures imply profit margins of 50–60% for efficient miners at $0.05 power. At a pricey $0.10/kWh (common for retail electricity or high-tariff regions), mining costs skyrocket. Only the very latest ASIC (S21 XP) stays comfortably below the current BTC price, at around $72k per coin. Most other models hover in the $78k–$90k range, meaning their operators are earning little to no profit at spot prices. In fact, at $0.10/kWh, a miner like the Avalon A15 Pro would spend about $89k to generate one BTC – essentially breakeven with Bitcoin at ~$90k. This illustrates why high-power-cost miners struggle or shut off during downturns. Profitable vs. Unprofitable: Current Market Reality Which miners are still profitable at today’s rates? Given Bitcoin’s price in the low $90,000s and typical industrial electricity around $0.05–$0.07/kWh, the newest generation ASICs remain comfortably profitable, while older, less efficient models are on the edge. For example: Latest-gen winners: The Bitmain S21 XP – with industry-best ~13.5 J/TH efficiency – can mine a coin for roughly $36k at $0.05/kWh, leaving a huge cushion against price. Even at $0.07/kWh (a common hosting rate), its cost per BTC would be on the order of ~$50k, still well below market price. Other 2024–2025 flagship units (Whatsminer M60S++, Bitdeer A2 Pro, Block’s Proto) likewise have breakeven power costs around $0.12–0.13/kWh; they remain viable in most regions except the very expensive ones. Older-gen on the brink: By contrast, an earlier-gen workhorse like the Antminer S19 XP ( ~21.5 J/TH) or similarly efficient rigs from 2021–2022 generation become marginal at moderate power rates. An S19 XP mining at $0.08/kWh sees its cost per BTC climb to roughly ~$94k (near current price), and at $0.10 it exceeds $110k (mining at a loss). Many such units are only profitable in locales with <$0.05 power. This is why we’ve seen miners with older fleets either upgrade or retire hardware as the margin for profitability narrows. The efficiency gap: The spread between best-in-class and older miners translates directly into survivability. A miner burning 30–40 J/TH can only stay online if they have extremely cheap electricity or if BTC’s price is far above average production cost. As of Q4 2025, Bitcoin’s price is indeed high, but so is the network difficulty – meaning inefficient gear yields so little BTC that electricity costs outweigh revenue in many cases. According to one industry report, the cost of mining 1 BTC varies widely across companies – from as low as ~$14.4k for those with exceptional power contracts (e.g. TeraWulf’s U.S. facilities) to as high as ~$65.9k for others like Riot Platforms, even before accounting for overhead. (Riot’s effective cost was brought down to ~$49.5k after cost-cutting measures.) This huge range shows how electricity pricing and efficiency determine which miners thrive. In early 2025, the situation became so extreme that CoinShares analysts found the average all-in production cost for public mining companies spiked to ~$82,000 per coin – nearly double the prior quarter (post-halving impact) – and up to $137,000 for smaller operators ixbt.com . At that time Bitcoin was trading around $94k, meaning many miners, especially smaller ones, were underwater and operating at a loss. In high-cost regions like Germany, the breakeven cost even hit an absurd ~$200k per BTC, making mining there utterly unviable. Bottom line: At current prices, only miners with efficient rigs and reasonably cheap power are making money. Those with older equipment or expensive electricity have minimal margins or are already in the red. This dynamic naturally leads to miners shutting off machines that don’t profit, which in turn caps the network hashrate growth until either price rises or difficulty drops. It’s a self-correcting mechanism – one that ties directly into Bitcoin’s production cost acting as a market floor. Production Cost as Bitcoin’s “Magnetic” Price Level There’s a saying in the mining community: “Bitcoin’s price gravitates toward its cost of production.” In practice, the production cost often behaves like a magnet and a floor for the market. When the spot price climbs far above the cost to mine, it invites more hashing power (and new investment in miners) until rising difficulty pulls costs up. Conversely, if price falls below the average production cost, miners start to capitulate – selling coins and shutting rigs – until the difficulty eases and the market finds a bottom. This push-pull keeps price and cost loosely tethered over the long run. Notably, JPMorgan’s research this cycle highlighted that Bitcoin’s all-in production cost (now around ~$94,000) has “empirically acted as a floor for Bitcoin” in past cycles. In other words, the market has rarely traded for long below the prevailing cost to mine, because at that point fundamental supply dynamics kick in. As of late 2025, they estimate the spot price is hovering just barely above 1.0 times the cost (~1.03x) – near the lowest end of its historical range. This implies miners’ operating margins are razor-thin right now, and any extended move significantly below ~$94k would likely trigger miner capitulation and supply contraction. In plainer terms: downside from here is naturally limited – not by hope or hype, but by the economics of mining. If BTC dropped well under the cost floor, many miners would simply turn off machines rather than mine at a loss, removing sell pressure and helping put in a price bottom. History supports this magnetic pull. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has tended to retest its production cost during the worst of capitulations. For example, during the late-2018 crash and again in the 2022 downturn, BTC prices plunged to levels that put numerous miners out of business. But those phases were short-lived. Prices found support once enough miners quit and difficulty adjusted downward, allowing the survivors to breathe. The market “wants” to stay near the cost of production, as that is a sustainable equilibrium where miners neither drop like flies nor earn excessive profits. Whenever price strays too high above cost, it usually invites a surge in competition (hashrate) that raises the cost floor; when price sinks too low, hashpower falls until cost drops to meet price. It’s an elegant economic dance built into Bitcoin’s design. Why Price Often Meets Cost Before Rebounding If Bitcoin production cost is a de facto floor, why do we often see price fall all the way down to it (or even briefly below it) before the next big rally? The answer lies in miner psychology and market cyclicality: Miner Capitulation & Shakeouts: Markets are cruel to the over-leveraged and inefficient. During bull runs, miners expand operations, often taking on debt or high operating costs under the assumption of continually high prices. When the cycle turns, Bitcoin’s price can free-fall toward the cost of production, erasing margins. The weakest miners (highest costs or debt loads) capitulate first – selling off their BTC reserves and unplugging hardware. This wave of forced selling can push price right to (or slightly under) the cost floor, marking a final “shakeout” of excess. Only when the weakest hands are flushed does the market rebound. It’s no coincidence that major bottoms often align with news of miner bankruptcies or mass liquidations. The Iron Law of Hashrate: Miners are competitive and will run at breakeven or even slight loss for some time, hoping for recovery, rather than quit immediately. This means the network can temporarily operate above sustainable difficulty levels. Eventually, however, reality sets in. When enough miners can’t pay the bills, hashrate plateaus or drops, halting difficulty growth or causing it to decline. At that inflection point, the cost of mining stabilizes (or falls), giving relief to the remaining miners. The stage is set for price to rebound off the now-lower equilibrium. In essence, Bitcoin often has to tag its production cost to force a network reset and purge imprudent operators. Only after that cleansing can a fresh uptrend begin with a healthier foundation. Investor Sentiment at the Floor: From a contrarian market perspective, a convergence of price and production cost typically corresponds with maximum pessimism. If Bitcoin is trading at or below what it “should” cost to make, it signals extreme undervaluation to savvy investors. In late 2022, for instance, estimates of BTC’s cost basis in the $18k–$20k range coincided with the market trading in the mid-$15k’s – a level where miners were going bankrupt and sentiment was in the gutter. Yet those willing to be greedy when miners were fearful reaped the rewards when price recovered. The same pattern could be unfolding now in late 2025: the public is fearful of Bitcoin’s recent pullback, but its cost floor (~$94k) suggests fundamental value support. Smart money knows that when price meets cost, downside is limited and upside potential grows. Conclusion – Steeling Ourselves at the Cost Floor In EXCAVO’s signature fashion, let’s cut through the noise: Bitcoin’s production cost is the line in the sand – the magnetized level where price and reality meet. As of Autumn 2025, that line hovers in the mid-$90,000s, and Bitcoin has indeed been gravitating here. The data shows miners barely breaking even on average. This is a make-or-break moment. If you’re bullish because everyone else is, check your thesis – the real reason to be bullish is that BTC is scraping its cost floor, a level from which it has historically sprung back with vengeance. Conversely, if you’re panicking out of positions now, remember that you’re selling into the teeth of fundamental support. The market loves to punish latecomers who buy high and sell low. Yes, the mining industry is under stress; yes, the headlines scream fear. But those very pressures are what forge the next bull run. Every miner that shuts off today is one less source of sell pressure tomorrow. Every uptick in efficiency raises the floor that much higher, like a coiled spring tightening. Bitcoin has been here before – when production cost and price locked jaws in late 2022, and again in early 2025 post-halving. Each time, the doom and gloom was followed by a dramatic recovery as the imbalances corrected. Our contrarian take: The cost of mining 1 BTC isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet – it’s the secret pulse of the market. Right now it’s telling us that the bottom is in or very near. Prices might chop around this magnet a bit longer, even dip slightly below in a final fake-out, but odds of a deep crash under the ~$94k cost basis are slim. The longer Bitcoin grinds at or below miners’ breakeven, the more hashpower will fall off, quietly tightening supply. When the spring releases, the next upward leg could be explosive (as even mainstream analysts like JPMorgan are eyeing ~$170k targets). In summary, Bitcoin tends to revisit its production cost for one last test – and when it holds, it launches. Autumn 2025 appears to be giving us that test. The savvy, data-driven operator will view this not with panic, but with patience and resolve. After all, if you can accumulate Bitcoin near its intrinsic mining value while the herd is fearful, you position yourself on the right side of the trade once the inevitable rebound kicks in. As the saying goes, bears win, bulls win, but miners (and hodlers) who understand the cost dynamics win big in the end. Brace yourself, stay analytical, and remember: Bitcoin’s true floor is built in watts and hashes, and it’s solid as steel. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
21
Bitcoin Market Assessment - 110k or 80k incoming?Bitcoin Market Assessment – WhiteBit Chart & Exchange (Daily Time Frame) Welcome back everyone. Today we will be evaluating Bitcoin using the WhiteBit chart on the daily time frame. Market Overview Bitcoin recently surged to 126k, sweeping liquidity at the highs. Shortly after, the market sold off aggressively partly amplified by tariff news—which reinforced the upper resistance zone and caused price to break back below it. Price continued to decline sharply, reaching 80.3k, where millions in positions were liquidated. Current Technical Structure 1. Breached Bullish Golden Pocket Price has broken below the bullish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65). Once breached, this zone typically flips into resistance, which is what we’re seeing now. 2. Rising Wedge on the 4H On the 4-hour chart, price is forming a rising wedge, a pattern that often precedes continuation to the downside. This wedge aligns directly with the breached Golden Pocket, forming a strong confluence of resistance. 3. Trend Context Price action is still within a high-time-frame bearish trend, and the recent push upward appears to be a standard bearish pullback rather than a shift in structure. These combined factors suggest the possibility of a deeper move down. Downside Levels of Interest 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement (~85.6k) Next discount zone and logical target if the bearish structure continues. 80k Psychological Level A major high-volume and psychological area. If 85.6k breaks, a retest of 80k becomes probable. Bears are clearly targeting this zone. Volume Profile Insight Using the anchored volume tool, a significant cluster of volume sits around 111k—just above the key 110k level and very near the bearish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65). This area has not yet been retested. On higher time frames, the bearish Golden Pocket often acts as the ideal retracement zone before price continues lower. This creates a compelling upside target if the bearish scenario invalidates. Market Tone Momentum remains weak on the bullish side, with sellers maintaining control. As long as price remains below the breached Golden Pocket, the market structure continues to favor the downside. Scenario Summary Bullish Scenario Price breaks above and closes above the breached bullish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65 zone). Sustained strength above this level opens the door for: - 110k retest, aligning with major volume at 111k - Potential wick or extension into the bearish Golden Pocket This would temporarily invalidate short-term bearish momentum. Bearish Scenario (Primary) Breached Golden Pocket continues acting as strong resistance. Rising wedge breaks down. Price targets: - 0.786 Fib at 85.6k - 80k psychological level if 85.6k fails - Overall bearish trend remains intact, with bulls showing weakening momentum. Thank you all so much for reading. BTC has made a lot of reactions take place this year, from record breaking highs to record breaking liquidations of 19 Billion in just a few hours! It is important to be cautious, risk only what you can afford to lose and ensure you take on proper risk management. Make sure to follow and comment below what you think! If you would like any guides, or assessments of specific crypto currencies done, let me know!
Short
by King_BennyBag
41
Bitcoin Pullback to Resistance — Next Drop Loading?As I expected , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has begun its decline from the resistance zone($94,850-$93,000) and has reached its target. Currently, Bitcoin is moving near the resistance zone($90,900-$90,100), the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($91,840-$90,110), and other resistance lines. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin has completed its five-wave downward sequence and is now in the process of forming the corrective waves upward, likely within the resistance zone($90,900-$90,100). Moreover, since the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) has successfully broken the upper line of its falling wedge pattern, we can anticipate further increases in USDT.D%, which could put additional downward pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, considering that the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) is likely to resume a bearish trend, and given Bitcoin’s correlation with the SPX, a further decline in Bitcoin is not unexpected. In conclusion, based on the above analysis, I expect that Bitcoin will at least test the support lines and, if those are broken, it may continue to decline toward the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($87,000-$85,663). If the momentum of breaking these support lines is strong, we can expect even more significant downward movement. Do you think Bitcoin can go below $87,000? First Target: Support lines Second Target: Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($87,000-$85,663) Stop Loss(SL): $92,000(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
7
Fear Creates Winners — BTC 84.8K Swing to 132K?BTC Technical Outlook (2D Chart) I always prefer using the 2-Day timeframe (2D) when analyzing Bitcoin because it helps minimize noise, reduce false signals, and highlight the true macro trend. When you zoom out, the market becomes more honest. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel, a level that has historically generated strong bullish reversals. Sentiment is heavily bearish, liquidity is building under 85K, and RSI is approaching oversold — all aligning for a high-probability swing setup. Swing Trade Plan (Macro Structure) Entry Zone: Around 84,800 USD Take Profit: 132,000 USD Stop Loss: A confirmed 2-Day CLOSE below 74,400 USD The idea is simple: The structure remains bullish as long as BTC stays above the lower channel line. A 2-day close below 74,400 would mean the channel is broken — and the setup is invalidated. "When everyone becomes bearish, be the fool who buys — because the fool who buys support becomes the genius at the target." Entry around 84,800, TP 132K, SL only on a 2-Day close below 74,400. Risk-to-Reward ≈ 1:4.5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Yashour
2
BTC Buy/Long Signal (2H)First of all, manage your risk and don’t trade as if this is the only opportunity in the market. It’s the end of the year, liquidity is low, and volatility can occur without clear reasons Since price has reached an important demand zone on the 1-hour timeframe, we can consider taking a buy/long position with controlled risk. Two entry points and two targets are marked on the chart. Enter using a DCA approach at the entry points. At the first target, take partial profits and move the stop loss to break-even. Risk-averse traders can fully close the position at the first target Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting Comment if you have any questions thank you
Long
by iMoneyTeam
1
BITCOIN following the same blueprint as all previous Bear CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been falling non-stop since its October All Time High and all the signs continue to be there that we have already entered the new Bear Cycle. We've been sharing extensive analyses with you since September on the markers of the Bear Cycle and the latest indicator that adds to the data set is the STOCH on the 3W time-frame. As you can see, it has entered a level where all previous three Bear Cycles completed roughly their 1st Phase and rebounded on a dead-cat-bounce. On average it i roughly after every three 3W candles that this happens, this time it was after two, the previous two Bear Cycles after three and the one before (longest) after six. Also this is the fastest it's reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) on a Bear Cycle correction and most likely it will be the same for its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA100 (green trend-line). This is another sign that shows how every Cycle gets less and less aggressive. The first Bear Cycle dropped by roughly -94%, the second by -87%, the third by -84% and the fourth (last) by 77%. This decelerating rate reveals BTC's asymptotic behavior as more and more mass adoption kicks in with every passing Cycle. As the market stabilizes, becomes larger and more widespread, the volatility becomes lower and lower. This is a sign of maturity. So what does this potentially mean for us and this Bear Cycle? Well that the drop will most likely be contained at -70% maximum (-7% less than the previous Cycle), a rate that may be as low as -60% (just after contacting the 3W MA100) if ETF buying interest returns or other fundamental catalysts (bitcoin treasuries etc?) accelerate adoption. So this potential range translates into a possible buy zone of $50000 - $38000 towards the end of 2026 but that's a topic we've analyzed extensively on other studies. So do you think the 3W STOCH puts another nail on Bitcoin's coffin or there are still hopes that the Bull Cycle will be resumed? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
Gold at a Critical Crossroad — One Last Push Before the Trap?MARKET BRIEFING – GOLD (XAU/USD) | 1D Market Structure: Gold remains in a rising structure, respecting the ascending trendline. However, price is now approaching a major resistance zone, where selling pressure has previously stepped in aggressively. Key Levels to Watch: – Resistance Zone: 4,380 – 4,420 – Intermediate Support: 4,225 / 4,136 – Major Support Zone: 3,900 – 3,950 Price Action Read: – As long as price holds above the rising trendline, bulls still have control. – A final push into resistance is possible, but momentum is weakening near the highs. – Failure to break and hold above resistance could trigger a sharp pullback toward the 4,000 handle and deeper into the support zone. Bias: ➡️ Short-term: Cautious bullish into resistance ➡️ Medium-term: Watch for rejection → corrective move likely Trader Focus: This is decision time — either a clean breakout with acceptance above resistance, or a liquidity sweep followed by a downside rotation. Patience > prediction
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Gold_Dominator
4
BTC/USD 4H Chart🔎 Market Structure (4H) Medium-term trend: still up, but clearly weakening Price has broken out of the local uptrend channel (black line broken) Currently, we have a downward impulse + attempted demand reaction This looks like a distribution → SL breakout → seeking demand lower 🧱 Key Levels (from your chart) 🟢 Resistance (now selling) 89,255 – first local resistance (now S/R flip) 91,857 – strong resistance, previous consolidation 93,713 – supply zone / last LH 94,700–95,000 – very strong resistance (high range) 👉 Until we return and close the 4H period above 91.8k, longs are counter-trend 🔴 Support (most important) 87,621 – currently being tested / very important 84,216 – key HTF support (must-hold for bulls) 81,308 77,820 – deep range low 📉 Momentum & price action Last candle: strong decline + long lower wick = demand reaction, but no confirmation No 4H HH/HL structure yet This looks like a dead cat bounce or a retest of the breakout 📊 Stoch RSI Was heavily oversold Now a sharp upward move ⚠️ But: In downtrends, the Stoch RSI often gives false long signals Price confirmation is needed, not just an oscillator 🧠 Scenarios (specific) 🟡 Scenario 1 – Base case (most likely) Pullback → further decline Bounce to 89.2k – 90k Rejection Down to 84.2k Market decision there 👉 This is a textbook retest of a broken structure 🟢 Scenario 2 – Bullish (less likely, but possible) Conditions: 4-Hour Close > 91,857 Then a retest of the high-low Then targets: 93.7k 94.7–95k Only above 95k does the full uptrend resume 🔴 Scenario 3 – Bearish (if demand breaks) If: 4-Hour Close < 87.6k Then: A quick move to 84.2k Breakout = 81.3k Extreme: 77.8k
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
BITCOIN (BTC) TRADE SETUP: THE BULL & BEAR BOX STRATEGYBitcoin is currently trading in a choppy consolidation zone. Instead of guessing the direction in the middle of the noise, we are focusing on specific "Decision Boxes" to guide our trades. We use them as confluence with our standard technical analysis (indicators, patterns, etc.) to confirm entries. Here is the game plan based on the chart levels: 1. THE YELLOW BOX (MAJOR DEMAND ZONE) This is the "Line in the Sand" for the bulls. - Bullish Scenario: If price dips into this yellow box and shows rejection wicks or a lower timeframe reversal pattern, it is a high-probability LONG entry targeting the Red Boxes above. - Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): If the price breaks below this yellow box with a strong 1H or 4H candle close, the bullish structure is invalidated. This flip from Support to Resistance would trigger a SHORT setup targeting lower liquidity levels. 2. THE RED BOXES (OVERHEAD SUPPLY WALLS) These red boxes represent areas where sellers are active. - Bearish Scenario: If price rallies into a Red Box and gets rejected (long wicks to the upside), it is a valid SHORT signal to play the range back down. - Bullish Scenario (Breakout): If price breaks cleanly through a Red Box, that zone flips from Bearish to Bullish. We then wait for a retest of that broken box to go LONG, targeting the next Red Box higher. HOW TO TRADE THIS Do not blindly buy or sell just because the price touches a line. Use these boxes as CONFLUENCE. - Step 1: Wait for price to enter a Box. - Step 2: Look for a reaction on the lower timeframe (15m or 5m). - Step 3: Enter only if you see a reversal candle (Hammer, Engulfing) or a confirmed breakout/retest. SUMMARY - Yellow Box Holds = Bullish Bias. - Yellow Box Breaks = Bearish Bias. - Red Box Rejects = Bearish Bias. - Red Box Breaks = Bullish Bias. Let the market come to your levels. Patience pays. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risk. Always manage your risk properly.
by Mubite
2
BTCUSDT: Range Structure & Reversal RiskHI! Bitcoin is currently trading inside a well-defined range, where price action has formed a Head and Shoulders structure within the upper half of the range. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly developed, signaling weakening upside momentum after repeated failures near range highs. Price is now hovering near the range midline/neckline zone. A confirmed breakdown below this level would activate the pattern, opening the door for a move toward the 85,600–86,200 demand zone, which aligns with prior strong accumulation. As long as the price remains below the right-shoulder high, bearish pressure dominates. However, a strong reclaim back above the head would invalidate the pattern and keep the price rotational within the range.
Short
by melikatrader94
7
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #247👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s move on to Bitcoin analysis; the market hasn’t changed much since yesterday and is still ranging. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe Bitcoin is still in the range box between 89,849 and 90,590, and just like yesterday, it is fluctuating between these two zones today. ✔️ Today, the probability of movement during the New York session is high because Bitcoin is in a very small compression, and breaking this compression from either side can give us a position. 📊 Volume has decreased even further since yesterday, and this is another sign that a move is close. So, if volume enters and triggers are activated, a sharp move in Bitcoin could begin. ⭐ Today, we can open a short position after breaking the 89,849 zone. 🎲 The main short trigger is still 88,890, and breaking 89,849 will be the precursor to that. ↗️ For a long position, breaking 90,590 is a good trigger.We will get the main confirmation of Bitcoin turning bullish after a stabilization above 92,942 and 94,167. 💧 Today, any movement Bitcoin makes in either direction, if accompanied by increased volume, could continue. ✨ But if we see volume divergence, the likelihood of a fakeout increases. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #247👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s move on to Bitcoin analysis; the market hasn’t changed much since yesterday and is still ranging. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe Bitcoin is still in the range box between 89,849 and 90,590, and just like yesterday, it is fluctuating between these two zones today. ✔️ Today, the probability of movement during the New York session is high because Bitcoin is in a very small compression, and breaking this compression from either side can give us a position. 📊 Volume has decreased even further since yesterday, and this is another sign that a move is close. So, if volume enters and triggers are activated, a sharp move in Bitcoin could begin. ⭐ Today, we can open a short position after breaking the 89,849 zone. 🎲 The main short trigger is still 88,890, and breaking 89,849 will be the precursor to that. ↗️ For a long position, breaking 90,590 is a good trigger.We will get the main confirmation of Bitcoin turning bullish after a stabilization above 92,942 and 94,167. 💧 Today, any movement Bitcoin makes in either direction, if accompanied by increased volume, could continue. ✨ But if we see volume divergence, the likelihood of a fakeout increases. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
BOJ in FOCUS. BTC COULD RETURN TO 96-97KMorning folks, So, our gut feeling has not failed us last time as we decided to stay aside from any new longs. This week is a poor job to guess what will happen on BoJ meeting, but it definitely will be important for all crypto currencies. Theoretically, narrowing of carry trade rates difference will make a bad service to BTC, as a most volatile asset... Still, now we have a bullish grabbers on the daily chart. They look tempting. Especially because they do not demand far standing stops... I'm not confident with them at 100%, taking in consideration overall weak performance, but it is possible to risk and try them. If they will work BTC will return back to 96.4 - 97K area and finally complete our AB-CD target. As an option, you could wait for 1-2 more sessions, as we have time until BoJ still. And we can wait for more confirmation on intraday charts. So, no need to hurry up by far...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Bitcoin: can $90K sustain pressure?In a week of Feds rate decision, increased investors nervousness was also reflected on a crypto market in terms of higher volatility. BTC tried for one more time to reach the $95K resistance, however, the majority of trades ended around the $90K support. Broader crypto prices showed mixed performance with selective rebounds, as markets balanced macro uncertainty and investor positioning. Some analysts lifted views on Bitcoin miner stocks after recent price weakness. The high-low trading range of BTC during the week was between $94,5K and $89,3K. The RSI tried to reach the 50 level, however, closing the week at 48. It indicates that the market is still not ready to turn toward the overbought market side. The MA50 further diverges from MA200, indicating that no cross will occur in the near term period. Overall sentiment remains cautious but attentive to macro cues that continue to influence BTC price direction. Investors are still concerned regarding the course of US macro developments in 2026, in which sense, are still not ready to take higher positions in risk assets. BTC tried to move higher, but the energy was exhausted even before the price reached $95K. On the other hand, there is continuous selling pressure, which barely holds BTC at $90K. If the price finally breaks the $90K, the next level to watch will be the $85K level, with some probability for the $80K level. At the same time, BTC might revert to the higher grounds, however, it is unclear at this moment what the catalyst for such action could be.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
BTCUSDT.P - December 15, 2025Price is in a corrective downtrend, with the current rally retracing into a prior resistance band around 90,100–90,300 where the short entry is planned. The stop level near 92,800 sits above the recent swing high and protects against a full bullish reversal. As long as price remains capped below this resistance and intraday momentum stays weak, the bias favors a continuation lower toward the 85,000–85,500 support zone, which aligns with the projected profit level.
Short
by miljedtothemoon
BTCUSDT.P - December 16, 2025Price has extended a sharp downside leg and is now approaching a major support cluster around 84,700–85,200, where the planned long entry sits in alignment with previous reaction lows. The broader structure reflects a corrective downswing within a wider range, so a sustained hold above this zone could fuel a recovery toward 88,500–89,800, matching the projected profit area. A decisive breakdown through the stop level near 83,300 with strong momentum would confirm continuation of the downtrend and invalidate the bullish setup.
Long
by miljedtothemoon
Is everyone too bearish on BTC? Up to $108k before down?Everyone is extremely bearish on BTC here calling for new lows, but the chart and indicators don't look like they support a move straight down. Even though we're technically consolidating in a bear flag, I don't think we actually break to the downside (yet). To me, it looks like we should see a large bounce first up to the $103k-108k range, then I think a larger downside move can play out down to the lower support levels. The reason why I don't think we see a move straight down is because we're so oversold on high timeframes (weekly) and we're still above key support levels. It makes more sense to me to see a fake out move up that makes everyone bullish again before we see the large move down. As long as we remain above that $86.1k support level, then I think this is a strong possibility of an outcome. Let's see if we can hold that level and how it plays out.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by benjihyam
BTC Scalp Sell/Short Signal (30M)Price is bearish on the lower timeframe, which suggests a pullback within the higher-timeframe bullish structure to the downside in order to collect orders, before potentially moving higher. On the lower timeframe, we have a bearish CH, and there are liquidity pools below the chart that can be swept. Based on this setup, Bitcoin can be shorted. At the first target, move the trade to breakeven and take partial profits. Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting Comment if you have any questions thank you
Long
by iMoneyTeam
1
Bitcoin Is Setting a Trap Before the Next ExplosionBitcoin 1H Market Analysis — Liquidity Trap & Expansion Setup 1. Current Market Structure - Bitcoin is currently trading inside a corrective bearish structure following the previous impulsive move up. - Price formed a sequence of lower highs, capped by a descending trendline, confirming short-term selling pressure. However, the most recent drop failed to continue lower and instead produced a strong bullish reaction from the demand zone, signaling potential exhaustion of sellers. This indicates the market is transitioning from distribution → accumulation on the 1H timeframe. 2. Key Liquidity & Zones Major Resistance Zone: 90,500 – 90,700 → Previous supply + trendline confluence Demand Zone: 87,700 – 88,000 → Strong buying reaction, liquidity sweep completed Liquidity Sweep: The sharp sell-off into demand flushed late longs and trapped breakout sellers, allowing smart money to accumulate at discounted prices. This is a classic liquidity grab below structure before reversal. 3. Market Scenario (Primary Outlook) 🔼 Bullish Scenario – Preferred Based on current price behavior: - Price is likely to retest the descending trendline - A successful reclaim above 89,300 – 89,600 would confirm a bullish structure shift - After a shallow pullback, BTC can expand toward: TP1: 90,500 TP2: 92,000+ Extended Target: 93,500 (range high) This matches the projected path drawn on your chart. 4. Market Psychology - Retail traders are reacting emotionally to the sharp drop, assuming continuation lower. - Smart money used the sell-off to absorb liquidity inside demand. - The strong bounce shows buyers are in control below 88K. - This environment favors patience and confirmation, not chasing breakouts blindly. The market is setting a trap for late sellers before expansion. 5. Trading Guidance ❌ Avoid selling inside the demand zone ✅ Focus on: - Buy setups after trendline reclaim - Pullbacks holding above 88,500 - Break-and-retest confirmations - Risk management is critical — volatility expansion is likely once price leaves this compression. Summary Bitcoin has completed a liquidity sweep into demand and is showing early signs of a trend reversal on the 1H timeframe. As long as price holds above the demand zone, the bias remains bullish toward higher liquidity and resistance targets. This is not a random bounce it is structured price behavior driven by liquidity and positioning.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal