THE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER ENDTHE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER END.
As I’ve said many times before, I now think this cycle will push into late January / February 2026, similar to 2017.
As I’ve written extensively about, the macro setup is nearly identical to 2017.
Read that here.
The funny thing is, when we do push into early Q1 ‘26, all your favorite “influencers” will proclaim “this time is different”, because most weren’t here during the 2017 cycle or before.
There is ZERO EVIDENCE that the 4-year cycle is dead.
Since the GFC in 2008, the Fed was redesigned for these boom and bust cycles to counter inflation and unemployment.
At this point, unless the US completely dismantles the Fed, the 4-year cycle will live on in perpetuity. We see the effect of this on TradFi as well.
See the comparison here.
The Fed is set to cut interest rates for the first time in a year at tomorrow’s FOMC. This is a liquidity positive catalyst for markets.
The next ISM PMI print on October 1st should be ~50, which will be the start of the business cycle.
That would give us ~5 months of a surging business cycle, which will pump risk assets to VALHALLA.
