Everyone Thinks the Cycle Is Over — $300K–$450K Q4 2026Sentiment is mostly bearish with everyone calling the cycle top because 1064 days have passed. It seems everyone has finally cracked the Bitcoin code based on historical data and simple mathematics. Apparently, it has become so easy to time Bitcoin that everyone must be right.
But if you have been around long enough, you know Bitcoin always does the unexpected. When everyone is watching the same pattern and timeframe, the market tends to move in the opposite direction. History has shown this repeatedly, and I believe this time will be no different.
My target remains 300-425k by Q4 2026 with ETH between 25-33k. To understand how I arrived at this timeframe and prediction, check the ETH TA below for context.
The model shown above is the Bitcoin Power Law Corridor model. If you have followed me for a while, you know I normally use another model shown below.
Unfortunately, the BLX Bitcoin chart is no longer being updated and that model only works with that data, so it has to be retired.
Months ago, my take aligned with the Bitcoin cycle ending around this time, but new data has shifted the outlook toward an extended cycle into 2026 or possibly the completion of the standard four-year cycle.
From the chart above, you can see that whenever Bitcoin breaks the center line of the Power Law model, it enters the final phase of the cycle. This cycle has not yet closed a single monthly candle above that line. Historically, once it does, the final move begins and usually lasts about a year. Each move from the center line has been smaller over time, averaging around -48 percent per cycle, implying a potential 130-145 percent move this time, which aligns with a 300k Bitcoin target.
RSI currently sits at 67.
$111,191.670 — Mayer Multiple 1.03
Mayer is at 1.03, yet I am supposed to believe the herd that the cycle top is already in. It would be wild to top out with such a low count.
No Pi cycle cross.
Until we break and close a weekly candle inside the Gaussian channel, I will say the run is not over. In the last cycle, we touched it twice before falling in on the third attempt. Perhaps the same happens again and it marks the top, but this analysis will only be invalidated if we get that close inside. Until then, there is no reason to worry.
