BTC Isn’t Bottoming — It’s Bargaining: Why 75k Still Makes SenseAs I mentioned in my previous analysis, the idea that “BTC has bottomed” simply doesn’t convince me.
And let’s be honest: when a true bottom forms, you won’t see every account on social media announcing it. Markets don’t work that way — especially crypto, where optimism is often weaponized.
From a structural perspective, the entire rise from the 80k zone looks like a textbook corrective move. Yes, we had a perfectly normal rebound into the 94k area, but everything that followed has been classic corrective behavior:
- Mostly ranging price action
- Repeated spikes into 95k that were quickly sold
- Clear overlapping structure
- A bearish flag, which statistically favors continuation lower
If we also consider the four-month distribution phase between 110k–120k, it becomes even harder to justify a bullish reversal narrative. Distribution of that scale rarely resolves into instant trend reversals — instead, it usually marks the beginning of a deeper cycle shift.
So from a psychological standpoint, the crowd is still bargaining — trying to convince themselves the trend is intact, even though the structure keeps printing lower-probability bullish outcomes. That cognitive dissonance is exactly what fuels bear markets.
My view remains unchanged: 75k remains the primary downside target.
And for me, nothing changes unless BTC manages to stabilize above 100k — not just wicks above, but hold with clear buying interest.
Until that happens, selling rallies is the only rational play.
