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Bubble

Will BTC repeat its history?When prices begin to range away from the mean when dealing with up trending movements, power is lost in many indicators. When this happens, it usually means that price is currently in a bubble. In contrast to a ticker like the SP:SPX price usually doesn't behave in this manner. It's actually quite easy to understand why this is the case. If one was to make Monte Carlo simulations using a geometric Brownian motion, you would see some processes behave in a manner of a bubble. But if we take the aggregate of all movements and average them, or calculate a present value, the value tends to be around the center. Well an index does quite the same but through different methods. By aggregating important tickers, they form an average based on different criteria, therefore are more susceptible to following the central limit theorem. Meanwhile, individual stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to violent movements which completely ignore technical indicators. This has led me to believe that the more a ticker is dependent on external factors the more it will follow traditional statistical and probabilistic methods. I have no proof for this claim, It's just what I believe based on experience. When looking at central metric indicators, it's important to conciser there are two point in which these become unreliable. When price action completely ignores your distribution, such as it does here. And when the price is consolidating in the mean. When prices consolidates in the mean, it can be seen as a reset or as a very serious sign something is wrong. However, when minimums become unreliable then that is when one should really be scared, because that means something is seriously wrong. I will look for examples of this for you in the future. When prices behave in this manner, I don't feel confident making predictions because when a ticker is more susceptible to speculation then price action behaves erratically and patterns become harder to find.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DarkMessiah777
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #4Good day and i hope you are well. Last time i talked about Nvidia was 2024-02-23 and Nvidia was at 823 and my targets were 900/1000. Time for an update. comment: It's the stock everyone talks about and the peak insanity bubble of this generation before the next financial crisis. There, I said it. Feel free to stop reading now if you don't like it. I look at charts and comment on patterns I see and what I think will most likely happen or not. If the picture is unclear, we are in a trading range. Obviously not the case for this gem. You can study parabolic wedge tops and see repeating patterns, therefore you can make predictions about the possibility of future price movements. This stock will be the posterchild of a bubble pop, just like Bitcoin was in 2021 when it did a 50% pull-back from 64000 to 30000. For you guys, I commented on the Bitcoin parabolic wedge top from 2020/2021 to illustrate my point. See below. Probably 99% of twitter wants you to think Nvidia goes to infinity, just like Bitcoin in 2021 but they only do that at the peak of the bubble while the market is going parabolic. They are so euphoric that they never seem interested in studying market behavior in the past. If you truely believe them and the "this time it's different...", good luck. The party will probably continue some more, just like it did with bitcoin. But at some point, mostly the point where your friends, who know the same about the financial markets as about quantum physics, will tell you they bought Nvidia, it will turn because there is no one willing left to buy and the only thing the stock can do is go down to find new buyers. If that move is strong enough, well, the fair price might be lower than you think. -dotcom everyone thought everything with an internet address could only print money for infinity -gfc everyone thought housing prices can only go up and for sure this time it's different -what shall we call the next GFC? Will it be the everything bubble? Who gives a flying f. Cycles repeat. It's never different. This cycle was just moved so far off, because of the biggest money printing experiment in history. Markets do not change because they reflect human behavior. This market will deflate and so will this stock. Please rub it in my face when we are in 2025 and Nvidia trades at 3000. Please do. Maybe I will learn something from it. Here is my usual writing for weekly recaps & outlooks current market cycle: parabolic wedge top - peak bubble behavior key levels: 1150-1500 bull case: Everything. Stock can only go up. Every dip is bought. Daddy Jensen is signing breasts and most people think AI will be an infinite money glitch. Invalidation is below 1170ish. bear case: No bear case. Every bull trend line is valid. Pull-backs are shallow and bought. Market is printing consecutive uber bullish gaps. If you think anything about this is bearish right now, look at the weekly/monthly tf and think again. "But you are saying it will pop..." Well yeah but as of right now, nothing is deflating for this stock. I'm giving you my reasoning why buying into a W5 (third push up) while most indixes are at or near all time highs, might be a bad idea. When everyone and their dog is max bullish, you could think twice about doing the same. Invalidation is above 1400. short term: It's reasonable to expect another push up in this tight bull channel for a high around 1300-1400. medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. current swing trade: hell naw.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by priceactiontds
2
New high-potential play. Get in early?$BUBBLE just launched across Bybit, Gate.IO, HTX, MEXC and a bunch of other exchanges. Looking at it's litepaper: bubble.imaginaryones.com , it seems like a possible high-potential play for the next big gami-fi project, with already tons of credible Listed companies backing it and collaborating with it. A look at the charts: TGE: 14th May, 10:00 UTC. Price spiked to 0.06. - 1 hour after, price started to dip till 0.01 - A look at its open see saw that out of 8888 listed NFTs, 10% were not staked. As holders received token airdrops (101010 tokens per NFT), this TGE dip is expected from holders who are in to make a quick buck. - Post TGE, 90% NFTs remained staked - 15th May 02:00 UTC8, mini spike pushing the price up to form higher-lows, despite total market dip - By TA + Investors strength from $BUBBLE Litepaper, we should expect a gradually climb with market, follwed by a couple of pumps with their phased out partnership release over the next few months. *Do expect liquidity grabs from the minority pool of opportunist. Overall: Looking at potentially 2000% growth on investments to $0.2 by EOY, from the current $0.01
BLong
by lesnermj
#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daGood day and i hope you are well. There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon. Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160 Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120 Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800 JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath. bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again. bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart. outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday. short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
Long term indicator to identify Bubble territoryBollinger bands applied on the 1M Log chart create this fjord/valley forms that signal in advance that the peak is arriving and that we are in a big bubble territory. This won't tell you the exact month when to sell, but it signals when we are entering the bubble territory, so you can know whether or not it's still safe to enter, and start selling going up hill. Vertical lines are halving dates just for reference. The red circle is an approximate when the peak will probably take place.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ecairol
S&P 500 2024-2025 OutlookSP:SPX is not going to crash in the Q1 or Q2 2024. I have measured that we will continue the rally atleast until the resistance zone around 5200-5800. I used fibonacci retracement to determine the rally target and the pullback target. If we topped at 5200-5800, we will most likely drop to the support area around 3500-3200. I highlighted some area in the RSI graph, if we reached that area we most likely will have a pullback. Another case is if we still continue the rally up until 7000-8000, an economic bubble perhaps, the crash would be more deadly. Overall i think 2024 will be good for people to make money and prepare for a major crash. Stocks & crypto will be making new all time highs, the first two quartals should be fine for us. Fourth quartal will be the most decisive because of US election, could turn very good or very bad. My advice is to also follow all the latest news about geopolitical tension, we might have a world war 3 or at least a major war that will play a very big factor on the economy in general. Prepare.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn25768508
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:DJI
by konhow
40
The NASDAQ and Yield Curve Inversion Battle PlanTL:DR The NDX & Yeild Curve Inversion Pattern suggests that price is bouncing very technically and logically at a long term support trend line. The bubble phase will be complete when price action gets a lot of "white space" between itself and the trendline and the yield curve inverts again in about 2 years. Introduction There is definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market and lots of divergent and conflicting opinions. Lots of conflicting news as to why price could go up, down, or sideways. Ideally TA is suppose to help people see through the noise to make rational decisions in the moment you find yourselves in. A lot of this is pattern recognition and probabilities and sometimes, trite sayings to reenforce deeper lessons. Some of the first trite trading sayings sayings you could have been exposed to: The trend is your friend until the end So long as the music is playing keep dancing bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered Lets keep those in mind going forward analysis There are several stages to a bubble and adept traders and investors will be able to negotiate the market with some understanding of what phase the bubble is in. Generally, there is a fair value stage of the bubble and I have that in the orange channels on the NDX and orange zones in the yield curve portion of the chart. Both orange zones go on for about two years and show lots of uncertainty or even chaos in the financial markets. The late 1988 to mid 1990 saw the end of the Saving and Long Crisis which was a pretty serious event. Looking back the dollar amounts seem relatively small compared to the money that is sloshing around now. The 2005 to 2008 yeild curve inversons kicked off the 2008 financial crisis and it took years for the NDX to return to the swing high of the yield curve inversion. Eventually the uptrend increases its angle of assent and the blue trend line appears. This becomes our long term support and so long as price action stays pretty close to the trend line the bubble can inflate for years. During this time yield curve inversions drive price action back down to the blue trendline. So long as the trendline holds you have a very logical reason to buy. The music is still playing and the trend is your friend until the end. There are many pull back systems you could use to buy the dip technically. Below is the NDX on the weekly with the 200 EMA. Every time it has hit the 200 EMA since 2010 it has been an outstanding buy. It is super easy to set stops down there as well. Whether you like that or not it is a very technical buy and very justified. You can buy dip bearing in mind that "Bulls make money.... pigs get slaughtered" The blow off phase of the bubble occurs when there starts to get a lot of white space between the blue trendline and price action. Once that happens you know that price is going to go below that level because that is how bubbles work. Quite frankly, when I see the white space and the yeild curve inverts again it is basically time to close longs within the next 30=60 days. There may be some more upside but it will be at the end of a bubble, no point in being to greedy and holding to long. Generalizations I see the United States stock market going crazy for the next two years to the upside and then crazy to the downside for another two years. I don't see precious metals having their run until after a lot of the damage from the NDX bubble pop happens. Gold futures bottomed about halfway through the NDX bear market and i think it would be fair to see that happening again. I see crypto going crazy to the upside along with NDX and then having an even crazier downside and that would be the first true bear market for crypto that occurs with a NDX bear market. There is going to be a lot of pain and misery and lots of projects getting the Luna treatment. My linked idea on the XABCD Butterly will show that disaster scenario. My trades I have taken a shining to a couple of cryptos, some new and some old. I still like DASH, DAOUSDT looks good, Kadena looks great. I hope to beat as much money out of these coins while the music is still playing and then hopefully get out before the financial market seizes up again. I think that if things go well for 2 years and my targets get reached before then should be able realize the gains before any catastrophe makes my funds unavailable. Last thing I want is my trades and equity be used to "bail in" the exchanges so they don't have to pay me out.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by This_Guhy
50
🏘 Housing Bubble v 2.0: What Does It Mean for US Stock MarketMuch to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says more than half of U.S. metro areas registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023. So much for the idea that a "housing recession" would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes. The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: Home values started rising again. NAR reports that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. Home prices in August 2023 rose 3.9 percent year-0ver-year to reach $407,100 — near the all-time-high of $413,800, and only the fifth time any monthly median has eclipsed the $400,000 mark since NAR began keeping records. The housing recession is essentially over, or has just began!? Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates have soared past 7 percent, reaching their highest level in more than 20 years in August. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s August data showing only a 3.3-month supply. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Turn Higher, as 200-Month SMA Key Resistance was broken earlier in 2022. Average Annual Mortgage Interest. 30 000 U.S. Dollars Rubicon is at the hands. After the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters he was keeping a close eye on the housing market. "Housing is very interest-sensitive, and it’s one of the first places that’s either helped by low rates or held back by higher rates," - Powell said in the press conference. "We’re watching that situation carefully." Housing economists and analysts agree, regardless, that any market correction is likely to be a modest one. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession. Is the housing and stock markets are going to crash? The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2000s. Back then, home values crashed with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the housing boom is threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and a potential recession so buyers and homeowners are asking a familiar question: Is the housing market about to crash? 5 reasons ("cast in bronze") there will be no housing market crash 1. Inventories are still very low. 2. Builders didn’t build quickly enough to meet demand. 3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers. 4. Lending standards remain strict and impose tough standards on borrowers. 5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices, and it’s nothing like it was two decades ago. Funny, but all of that adds up to the one only consensus: Yes, home prices are still pushing the bounds of affordability. But "Ooh not", this boom shouldn’t end in bust. 😏 History does not repeat itself. But often rhymes. Technical graph for ECONOMICS:USSFHP - U.S. Single Family Home Prices illustrates there has been a while, without new all time highs in Top Four U.S. Stock market indices while Housing Bubble was exist in 2000s. So lets see, will be the same in 2020s or not, while 2023 is a second straight year without new all time peaks in S&P500 SP:SPX , in Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX , in Dow Jones Index AMEX:DJIA as well as in Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by PandorraResearch
S&P500 Crash: Trillions Vaporized in Titanic Fed-Inflated BubbleThe S&P 500 is facing a significant correction due to the potential bursting of the Federal Reserve's asset bubble, which is currently driving its artificially inflated values. Amidst signs of overheating markets, soaring valuations, and unsustainable monetary policies, the equity market is on the brink of a major downturn. The 2008 financial crisis, a debacle of epic proportions, wreaked havoc on a worldwide scale, decimating trillions of dollars in wealth. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic, an unanticipated black swan event, exacerbated the situation, warranting an even more vigorous response from monetary authorities. To offset these crises' debilitating effects, the Federal Reserve rapidly escalated its balance sheet from a figure shy of $1 trillion in 2008 to a staggering excess of $8 trillion by 2021. This monumental expansion was effected primarily via the purchase of government securities and other asset classes, essentially serving as the economic bellows to reignite the embers of the economy and replenish market confidence. My prediction lies at the levels waiting beneath us including the 2.618, 4.236, 6.854, and 11.09.... A notable Fibonacci cluster is at 2,400... onky time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
11
Navigating NVDA: A Potential Opportunity for Young InvestorsAs the world of technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, few companies have captured the attention and imagination of investors quite like NVIDIA Corporation. Known for its groundbreaking innovations in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing, NVDA has experienced an impressive bullish run, leading to questions about its long-term potential. In this idea, we will explore the journey of NVDA, its recent price movements, and discuss why it might be an intriguing opportunity for young investors who are seeking to hold stocks for a few years. Riding the AI Hype Cycle NVDA's recent surge can be largely attributed to the AI hype cycle, as the company's technologies and products have become essential components in various AI applications. With a bullish breakout target initially set around $330, NVDA has already surpassed expectations , leaving many to wonder if there is still room for growth. Analyzing the Price Action To gain insights into NVDA's potential trajectory, it's essential to analyze its past price action. Back when the stock was trading closer to $180, I alerted to an inverted head and shoulders formation, indicating a confirmation for higher prices. Since then, NVDA's stock price has doubled, showing the strength of this formation. The consolidation period leading up to the breakout lasted approximately six months, while the breakout itself took around three months. These patterns indicate the potential for continued upward momentum. Elliott Wave Analysis Additionally, an Elliott Wave analysis was conducted, projecting an upside target for NVDA's wave 3. Remarkably, this target has already been surpassed, further supporting the case for continued growth. Following this analysis, the price action in late March and early April suggested the formation of a wave 4, potentially followed by a wave 5. If NVDA breaks above $420 in the short term, it could indicate a further extended upside target in the mid $500s . The Importance of Patience While the future looks promising for NVDA, it is crucial for young investors to exercise patience and understand the concept of market bubbles. Ideally, a retreat in NVDA's stock price over the coming months down to the $275 area could present an opportunity to enter the market. It's important to note that this anticipated pullback is a normal market occurrence and not a reason to panic. Long-Term Vision Drawing inspiration from Tesla's remarkable journey, it is conceivable that NVDA may experience a similar "bubble pop" phenomenon. In late 2024 or early 2025, NVDA could potentially reach prices as high as $1000-$1025. However, it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, as markets can remain irrational longer than expected. A Word of Caution When considering investment strategies, young investors should be mindful of the risks associated with options trading, particularly expensive, longer-dated options. It's crucial to thoroughly understand the intricacies of options before venturing into this market. NVDA's remarkable performance, driven by the AI hype cycle, indicates significant potential for long-term growth. Young investors who are willing to hold stocks for an extended period should consider NVDA as a potential addition to their investment portfolios. Remember to exercise patience, monitor the market trends, and stay informed about the risks associated with investment decisions. By doing so, you can position yourself for potential success in the dynamic world of NVDA and the broader technology sector.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bitdoctor
3
SPX: Denial on Denial.SPX: Denial on Denial. There are too much facts going on for anything else to happen than this. where should I even start. Highest debt ever above 140% for US. No increased debt ceiling. Yield curve topped out. Bonds needs to get bought. Inflation coming down harder and unemployment increasing rapidly. Core CPI is larger than CPI. harder for households. More house on the market than ever. Households are not getting sold. VIX expiration today 17e. Biggest expiration in QQQ, SPY, IWM, VIX expiration 19e this week. FED PIVOT is already here. When that happend in history, Recession has always followed. More outflow in stocks than inflows. Options is the only one saving the market till everything expire and the short bag is to great.
SP:SPXShort
by PivotX
2