USDT Dominance: Lower Highs, Maybe One Last Pop to ~5%CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D is still in a high-timeframe downtrend. On the weekly chart, price keeps carving lower highs under that clean descending trendline, and it’s still trading below the 200 EMA. Nothing about the bigger picture says “uptrend” yet.
Short term, it looks like we’ve built a pretty clear support shelf around ~4%. You can see the repeated taps down there, with those swing-low dots lining up along the base. From that floor, a bounce toward the ~5% area makes sense—right into the confluence of the trendline and the EMA cluster overhead.
If we do pop into ~5%, that usually means Bitcoin and alts keep bleeding while dominance squeezes higher. But here’s the key idea I want to get across: this could be the last push before CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D USDT dominance rolls over again. We saw a similar behavior when dominance was compressing between ~7% and ~9.5%—the range tightened, then broke lower. I’m seeing the same kind of compression now between ~4% and ~5%, except this time it’s all happening under the 200 EMA and beneath the trendline. That context keeps me thinking “fade the pop,” not chase it.
So my eyes are on the reaction around ~5%. A rejection there would fit the downtrend narrative and open the door for dominance to turn back down, which typically lines up with a risk-on move in BTC and the broader alt market. On the flip side, if USDT.D starts closing above the 200 EMA and breaks that trendline with acceptance, I’ll respect it and reassess—but until that happens, the downtrend call stands.
Bottom line: HTF downtrend intact, support near 4%, room for a squeeze to ~5%, and if that bounce fails where the line and EMAs meet, I’m expecting dominance to resume lower—which is exactly what the crypto bulls want to see.
