ETH ANALYSIS – 1h📊 ETH ANALYSIS – 1h
🔥 1. Key Fact on the Chart
We have a very strong upward impulse that:
Breaked the upper band of the descending channel (blue)
Touched the upper line of the ascending channel (orange)
Was immediately rejected (long wick)
The MACD shows extreme overbought + potential divergence in the making
Such a move usually indicates a short squeeze + profit-taking → i.e., a temporary weakening and a retest of the breakout.
🎯 2. Price areas I see on your chart
Green (resistance/TP for longs):
3479–3490 – structural highs, strong resistance
3420 – local resistance
3375 – first real resistance after the breakout
Red (support/defense levels of the structure):
3338–3348 – first test zone after the breakout
3293 – key level — sustain = trend continuation
3180–3200 – consolidation zone broken (likely retest)
📉 3. What does the current wick mean?
This giant wick signals:
short liquidations
lack of demand for a continuation after the first resistance breakout
high probability of a return to the range
possibility of a retest of the breakout (around 3185–3210)
This doesn't look like a classic breakout with a continuation, but rather a fakeout and the need for a correction.
📈 4. Scenarios
➡️ Bullish (more likely if 3293 holds)
Price falls to the 3338–3293 zone
Builds a local HH/HL
Starts a move to 3375, then 3420
If 3420 breaks → target 3480–3500
➡️ Bearish (if price loses 3293)
Retest from the bottom of 3293
Return to the blue channel
Target: 3185–3200
If this level breaks → 3050–3080 (lower band of the channel)
📟 5. MACD
MACD is:
extremely stretched
signal line begins to collapse
histogram decreases after Explosion
→ This almost always means a local intraday high + a drop to support.
