BTC/USD 1h chart analysis I 12/231. Market Structure & ContextShort-term Trend:
The price is currently in a clear downswing after peaking near the $91,000$ area.
Trendline: A descending trendline (the black diagonal line) is acting as heavy resistance. As long as the price remains below this line, the bears maintain control.
Volume Profile (Value Area):
VAH (Value Area High): $89,678$
POC (Point of Control): $88,207$ (The level with the highest traded volume).
VAL (Value Area Low): $87,927$
2. Current Price Action Analysis
Value Area Breakdown: The price has recently dropped below the VAL ($87,927$). Trading below the Value Area is typically a bearish signal, indicating that the market perceives the current price as "expensive" relative to the previous value zone.
Failed Retest: There was an attempt to reclaim the POC ($88,207$), but it was rejected by strong selling pressure (long red candles).
Current Momentum: The latest candle shows a small wick at the bottom, but it remains near the local lows. Without a significant "bounce" or buy-side liquidity, the price is likely to hunt for support at lower levels (around $86,500$ – $86,000$).
3. Potential Scenarios
Scenario A: Continued Bearish Pressure (Higher Probability)
If the price fails to close back above the $88,000$ (VAL) mark within the next few hours, the sell-off will likely continue. The descending trendline remains the primary psychological and technical barrier.
Scenario B: Technical Recovery (Mean Reversion)
For a meaningful recovery to occur, BTC needs to:
Break and close above the black descending trendline. Reclaim the POC ($88,207$) as support.The next target would then be the VAH ($89,678$).
4. Trading Strategy Summary
Key Resistance: $88,200$ (POC) and $89,670$ (VAH). These are potential "sell-on-rally" zones unless there is a massive spike in buying volume.
Key Support: The previous swing low around $87,000$. If this level breaks, the downward momentum will likely accelerate.
Note: The price is currently in a "Price Discovery" phase below the Value Area. In professional trading, this is a risky zone for "bottom fishing." It is often safer to wait for a trendline break or a clear reversal pattern (like a Bullish Engulfing candle) on a lower timeframe.
