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XAUUSD Bearish Retracement Targeting $4,000 SupportContext and Trend Prior Bullish Trend: The chart clearly shows a strong, sustained uptrend leading up to October 22nd, with the price moving from below $3,920 to a peak near $4,200. Recent Sharp Reversal: This strong bullish move was abruptly interrupted by a massive bearish candlestick on October 22nd, indicating a sharp and significant sell-off from the high. This move marks a potential shift in the short-term momentum. Current Price Action and Key Zones Current Consolidation/Retracement: Since the sharp drop, the price has entered a phase of consolidation or a retracement (a move back up) within the area that saw the sharpest selling pressure. Supply/Resistance Zone: The blue shaded rectangle, which ranges roughly from $4,080 to $4,120, is a key area. This zone represents an area where the market may have found previous support or, more likely, is now acting as a supply zone (resistance) after the large drop. Traders often look to sell when the price re-enters a zone that previously broke down quickly, anticipating fresh selling pressure. Price Prediction (The Path): The drawn arrows indicate a predicted move: The price moves up to test the $4,080 - $4,120 supply zone. Upon hitting resistance, the price is expected to reverse and fall. The predicted target for the drop is the dashed green line at $4,009.10 (a level very close to the significant psychological support level of $4,000). Conclusion The chart suggests a high-probability short-term selling opportunity (or "short" trade) if the price reaches the supply zone, with the trade aiming for the major support level just above $4,000. The setup is based on the technical analysis pattern of a bearish continuation after a strong impulse move down.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
Friday Gold Battle: Will Market Makers Trap Traders Today?Good morning, traders — wishing everyone a blessed and profitable Friday. May it be a day of discipline, clarity, and controlled emotions — not chaos. Key Observations This Morning It’s evident that market makers may attempt to trap retail sentiment early in the session. However, well-prepared GoldRiders who manage risk strictly, watch levels carefully, and avoid emotional entries won’t be fooled. First Defensive Lines Support Zone: $4,067 – $4,059 A break below could accelerate bearish momentum. Resistance Zone: $4,154 – $4,162 A clean break above this range opens room for continuation to the upside. H1 (1-Hour) View Price is currently trading below all major moving averages (MA 10, 20, 50, 100, 200), hinting at potential intraday bearish pressure. H4 (4-Hour) View Facing resistance from the MA10 and MA20 near $4,124 and $4,140. Receiving support from the MA100 around $4,080. The MA200 is still far below at $3,940–$3,936. Daily Timeframe Price failed to close above the MA10 for the past two sessions. For bullish continuation, price must hold above $4,148. These are signals to observe — not reasons to bias yourself blindly. No Bias Zone We do not pre-decide direction. We follow structure, volume, and breakouts — nothing else. Bullish Scenario (BUY) Entry: Above $4,124 Targets:$4,130- $4,138- ( $4,145 – $4,149 )-$4,154 -$4,161-$4,172-$4,186- $4,198 - $4,206 - $4,213 -$4,225 - $4,233 -$4,240 Bearish Scenario (SELL) Entry: From current price up to $4,117 (To avoid risk you may wait below 4100 to sell) Targets: $4,095 -$4,090 - ( $4,080 – $4,078 )- $4,073 - $4,066 - $4,060 -$4,048 - $4,036 - $4,026 - $4,013 - $4,003 -$3,996 - $3,980 - $3,972 - ($3,950 – $3,946 ) Note If you found this analysis helpful, thank you in advance for sharing it with others. Good luck, GoldRiders — knowledge, discipline, and risk-management are your edge. Stay sharp. Stay humble. Stay profitable. Disclaimer This analysis reflects my personal view of the market and price behavior. It is not financial advice nor a guaranteed recommendation. Trading carries high risk. All decisions are the sole responsibility of the trader.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Gold_Rider
2
Causes of Global CrashesEconomic, Political, and Psychological Factors. Global financial crashes have been recurring phenomena throughout modern economic history. From the Great Depression of 1929, the Dot-Com Bubble of 2000, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, to the COVID-19 market crash of 2020, each episode has revealed vulnerabilities in the global financial system. Despite different triggers, all share underlying causes linked to economic imbalances, political decisions, and collective psychological behavior. Understanding these factors is crucial for policymakers, investors, and economists to anticipate and mitigate future crises. 1. Economic Factors: The Foundation of Market Instability Economic factors form the backbone of most global crashes. They often arise from systemic imbalances, over-leverage, speculative bubbles, and policy missteps that distort market efficiency. a) Asset Bubbles and Overvaluation One of the most common precursors to a crash is the formation of asset bubbles—situations where asset prices rise far beyond their intrinsic value due to excessive speculation. Investors, driven by the belief that prices will continue to climb, pour money into overvalued assets. When reality strikes and prices begin to fall, panic selling ensues, leading to a sharp market correction. Examples include: The Dot-Com Bubble (2000): Exuberance over internet startups drove technology stocks to irrational valuations, with companies having minimal profits being valued in billions. U.S. Housing Bubble (2008): Excessive lending and subprime mortgages inflated real estate prices until defaults triggered a collapse, spreading through global financial markets via securitized mortgage products. These bubbles illustrate how the combination of easy credit, speculative mania, and weak regulation can inflate asset values to unsustainable levels. b) Excessive Debt and Leverage High levels of debt—whether by households, corporations, or governments—create systemic vulnerability. When asset prices fall, overleveraged entities struggle to meet obligations, leading to a chain reaction of defaults and bankruptcies. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses; thus, when confidence erodes, deleveraging occurs rapidly, deepening the crisis. The 2008 Financial Crisis serves as a textbook example, where banks and financial institutions had high exposure to mortgage-backed securities financed through short-term debt. Once the housing market declined, the inability to refinance debt led to liquidity freezes and institutional failures such as Lehman Brothers. c) Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Mismanagement Central banks play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. However, prolonged periods of low interest rates and quantitative easing can encourage speculative behavior and excessive borrowing. Conversely, sudden tightening of monetary policy can burst bubbles and reduce liquidity. For instance: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening before the 1929 crash is believed to have reduced liquidity, accelerating the market collapse. Similarly, the rate hikes of 2022–2023 to combat inflation led to a correction in tech stocks and cryptocurrencies that had benefited from years of cheap money. d) Global Trade Imbalances Trade imbalances between major economies—such as the U.S. and China—can lead to distortions in capital flows and currency valuations. Persistent current account deficits or surpluses create dependency and volatility. When these imbalances adjust abruptly, global financial markets experience turbulence, as seen during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, when capital flight led to currency collapses and regional recessions. e) Banking System Fragility Weak regulation, risky lending practices, and insufficient capital buffers make banking systems vulnerable. The interconnectedness of global finance means that the failure of one major institution can cascade across borders, as seen in 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a global credit crunch. 2. Political Factors: The Role of Governance and Geopolitics While economic indicators often signal a crash, political factors can act as both catalysts and amplifiers. Governments influence markets through fiscal policies, regulation, and geopolitical actions. a) Policy Uncertainty and Mismanagement Political instability and inconsistent economic policies create uncertainty that undermines investor confidence. Sudden tax reforms, nationalization, or trade restrictions can shock markets. For instance: The Brexit referendum (2016) caused massive volatility in global markets due to uncertainty about trade and investment flows. The U.S.-China trade war (2018–2019) disrupted global supply chains, leading to stock market fluctuations and slower growth. In emerging markets, policy mismanagement, corruption, and lack of transparency can drive capital flight, devalue currencies, and cause inflationary spirals—factors often preceding financial crises. b) Geopolitical Conflicts and Wars Wars and geopolitical tensions disrupt trade routes, increase commodity prices, and trigger risk aversion in investors. The Russia-Ukraine war (2022), for instance, caused spikes in energy and food prices, contributing to global inflation and slowing growth. Similarly, the Oil Crisis of 1973—triggered by OPEC’s embargo—plunged Western economies into stagflation, demonstrating how political decisions in one region can create worldwide economic turmoil. c) Regulatory Failures and Deregulation Governments and financial regulators are tasked with maintaining market integrity. However, deregulation or lax oversight can allow risky practices to proliferate. The U.S. financial deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s encouraged complex derivatives and speculative trading, setting the stage for the 2008 crash. In developing economies, weak regulatory frameworks have allowed unmonitored capital inflows that later reversed abruptly, causing crises. d) Globalization and Policy Interdependence Globalization has tightly interlinked economies, but it also means that crises can spread faster. The collapse of one major economy now has ripple effects through trade, finance, and investment channels. When political decisions—like sanctions, tariffs, or capital controls—are implemented by major powers, they can unintentionally trigger market dislocations worldwide. e) Fiscal Deficits and Unsustainable Public Debt Governments running persistent fiscal deficits often resort to excessive borrowing. When investors lose confidence in a government’s ability to service its debt, bond yields rise sharply, leading to a debt crisis. Examples include: The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010–2012), where Greece, Spain, and Italy faced massive sell-offs in government bonds due to high debt-to-GDP ratios. Argentina’s repeated debt defaults illustrate how fiscal indiscipline can repeatedly destabilize markets and economies. 3. Psychological Factors: The Human Element in Market Crashes While economic and political factors lay the groundwork for crashes, psychology drives the timing and intensity of market collapses. Investor sentiment, herd behavior, and cognitive biases play central roles in shaping market dynamics. a) Herd Behavior and Speculative Mania Markets are not purely rational systems—they are deeply influenced by crowd psychology. When prices rise, investors fear missing out, leading to herd behavior where everyone buys simply because others are buying. This collective optimism inflates bubbles beyond fundamental values. Historical examples include: Tulip Mania (1637) in the Netherlands, where tulip bulbs sold for the price of houses before crashing overnight. Bitcoin and crypto booms (2017 and 2021), where social media hype and retail participation drove valuations to extreme levels before sharp corrections. b) Overconfidence and Illusion of Control Investors often overestimate their ability to predict markets. During bull markets, this overconfidence bias leads to risk-taking and neglect of fundamentals. Financial analysts, fund managers, and even policymakers may believe “this time is different,” ignoring signs of overheating. Before the 2008 crash, many economists and bankers genuinely believed that new financial innovations had made the system more resilient—an illusion that collapsed once subprime defaults surged. c) Panic and Loss Aversion Once asset prices start falling, fear takes over. Loss aversion, the psychological principle that people feel losses more intensely than gains, causes panic selling. The speed of modern digital trading and algorithmic systems amplifies this panic, leading to rapid market declines. During the COVID-19 crash of March 2020, stock markets fell over 30% within weeks as investors rushed to liquidate positions amid uncertainty, demonstrating how fear can drive faster collapses than fundamentals alone would justify. d) Media Influence and Narrative Contagion Media and social networks can accelerate both optimism and fear. Positive stories during bubbles and alarmist headlines during downturns amplify collective emotions. Economist Robert Shiller’s concept of “narrative economics” highlights how viral stories—such as “housing prices never fall” or “AI will revolutionize everything”—fuel speculative behavior detached from reality. e) Behavioral Finance and Feedback Loops Modern behavioral finance explains how psychological feedback loops amplify volatility. Rising prices attract attention, which draws more investors, pushing prices even higher—a self-reinforcing cycle. When this reverses, selling pressure creates a downward spiral, often far exceeding what fundamentals justify. 4. Interconnection Between Economic, Political, and Psychological Forces Global crashes rarely result from a single cause—they emerge from a complex interaction of economic misalignments, political actions, and psychological dynamics. For instance: The 2008 crisis combined excessive leverage (economic), weak regulation (political), and investor complacency (psychological). The COVID-19 crash reflected a sudden geopolitical shock (pandemic response), economic slowdown, and psychological panic selling. The Asian Financial Crisis (1997) arose from overborrowing (economic), weak policy responses (political), and investor herd behavior (psychological). This interconnectedness makes prediction and prevention challenging, as policymakers must manage not only economic fundamentals but also public sentiment and political realities. 5. Lessons and Preventive Measures To prevent or mitigate global crashes, lessons from past crises must be applied systematically: Stronger Financial Regulation: Transparent accounting, capital adequacy norms, and limits on leverage can reduce systemic risks. Balanced Monetary Policy: Central banks should avoid prolonged ultra-low interest rates that encourage asset bubbles, while managing liquidity during downturns. International Coordination: Global financial stability requires coordination among central banks, governments, and institutions like the IMF to manage cross-border capital flows and crises. Investor Education and Behavioral Awareness: Educating investors about cognitive biases, speculative risks, and market psychology can foster more rational decision-making. Crisis Communication and Transparency: Governments and regulators should maintain clear, transparent communication to prevent misinformation and panic during economic shocks. Conclusion Global crashes are inevitable episodes in the cyclical nature of financial markets, driven by a combination of economic imbalances, political misjudgments, and psychological dynamics. While the specific triggers may vary—be it a housing bubble, a war, or a pandemic—the underlying patterns remain strikingly similar. Understanding these causes not only helps explain past collapses but also equips policymakers and investors to build more resilient financial systems. Ultimately, preventing future crashes requires recognizing that markets are not just machines of numbers—they are reflections of human behavior, confidence, and collective decision-making in an ever-interconnected world.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Bullish continuation for NASDAQ? 📊 CME_MINI:NQZ2025 Analysis – Oct 18, 2025 🧠 Market Context: Price recovered back into Premium of range (the upper part of the current weekly range) after the drop to 24,158. Creating an inside week that managed to provide a Bullish close. Inside Week consolidated in an 1H frame. Price currently upper band (Premium) of 1H consolidation. Trapped Sellers at discount of 1H range which happens to be previous week Opening Gap High area. Lack of US scheduled Red Folder news until Friday morning. 8:30am 📕 Core CPI m/m 📕 Weekly wick 50% at 25196 📕 CPI y/y 9:45am 📕 Flash Manufacturing PMI 📕 Flash Services PMI Price referencing areas between 25,050–25,210. Premium of a weekly range. 🔼 There are several thing to note here: 🎯 Daily wick 50% at 25121.75 🎯 Weekly wick 50% at 25196 🎯 A Daily REQ Close and Open ( Origin of Weekly Short) at 25354.00 🎯 And REQ (Relative Equal) Highs and ATHs (All Time Highs) at 25394.00 Price can continue to explore Premium of weekly range using these as targets but keep in mind the potential for weakness and reversal formations along these levels. High timeframe bias as well as structure still Bullish, keeping in mind that Price is currently within a Bearish Range (Friday October 10, 2025) Mondays PA and range might clarify wether Bias will remain Bullish, or if there will be any more signs of weakness and reversal formations. 🔻 There are several thing to note on the short side here: 🙁 Trapped Sellers ( Passive Liquidity) at discount of 1H Range and accumulation or Lower Band. 📉 Week Opening Gap (Reference partially) at discount of bigger range 📉 Weekly Low at 24410.00 📉 Previous Weekly Low at 24158.50 🧩 Context: Still questioning whether Fridays drop could be labeled as Price displacement and considered signal, or Rebalance. The difference will be noticed Mon-Tues. Still uncertain on 💲 Dollar TVC:DXY Pending Bullish continuation confirmation or reversal back into chop.
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by JP_Tru
4
EURUSD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.161. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.164 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GBPJPY – Ending Diagonal Completed | Major Reversal SetupThe structure reveals a clear 5-wave rising ending diagonal, signaling exhaustion in bullish momentum. Each internal wave subdivides correctly into a zigzag pattern (3-3-3-3-3), with diminishing momentum and narrowing price action — classic traits of a terminal wave (5). 🔹 Wave Structure Breakdown: Larger Degree (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) completed with contracting trendlines. Subwave (5) within the diagonal has already broken its lower support, confirming early stage of reversal. Momentum divergence between wave (3) and (5) adds strong bearish confluence. 📉 Expectation: A sharp impulsive decline should follow, potentially retracing the entire diagonal formation. Target zone lies near 200.00–201.00, aligning with previous structural support and 61.8% retracement of the prior advance. 🎯 Key Levels: Invalidation: Above 204.70 (any sustained break invalidates the diagonal count) First Target: 202.00 Main Target: 200.00–199.50 Extended Target: 197.80 ⚠️ Note: Ending diagonals often lead to swift, deep corrections as trapped late buyers exit rapidly. Wait for a clear break and retest of the diagonal support before full confirmation.
Short
by MrLiquidonFX
CADJPY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.424. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 108.786 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
$AMD – Bull Flag Breakout & Momentum StructureNASDAQ:AMD broke out from its bull flag on October 1st, following a two-month consolidation phase that began in August. The breakout opened up a sharp 19% gap, driven by strong volume and follow-through buying pressure — a classic continuation move after months of coiling price action. Current Structure & Momentum After a 90% rally YTD, price has now run into congestion near $240, which aligns with prior resistance and psychological round-number supply. Despite that, AMD continues to hold the 8-day moving average, indicating that short-term momentum remains intact and buyers are still in control. Watch for how price reacts around the 13-day and 21-day MAs: Holding above the 8-day → momentum intact. Break below the 13-day → short-term pause or cooling phase. Decisive close below the 21-day → potential trim/take-profit zone before reassessing. The trend remains bullish until proven otherwise — let the chart tell its story before making assumptions. Gap Zone & Risk Levels The October breakout left a significant unfilled gap, a key reference area for potential re-tests if market sentiment turns. Gap mid-point (~$186) marks a 50% retrace zone — a logical first level for dip buyers if AI or semiconductor sentiment weakens. As long as price holds above $205–$210, the breakout structure remains valid. A full gap fill would only become likely on heavy distribution or macro risk-off rotation across tech. So far, the gap has not been filled, underscoring the underlying strength of the move. Volume & Target Projection Volume supported the breakout, confirming institutional participation and validating the pattern. Using a 1:1 flagpole measured move, the projected target for the breakout sits around $275 — which also aligns with the next visible volume-profile node on higher timeframes. Summary ✅ Trend: Bullish continuation ✅ Momentum: Holding 8-day EMA → strong ⚠️ Risk line: Close below 21-day MA → trim/reevaluate 🎯 Target: ~$275 (flagpole 1:1 projection) 📊 Gap zone: Watch $186–$205 for any retrace reactions Final Notes Momentum remains in AMD’s favor as long as short-term EMAs hold and sector sentiment supports the move. Watch how the stock behaves into $240 — acceptance above turns that zone into potential new support, opening the path to $260–$275. For educational and technical analysis purposes only. #Stocks #Crypto #TA #Semiconductors #NASDAQ NASDAQ:AMD
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by lindsey_dye
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/CHF has rejected off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.7980 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.8045 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.7903 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
Gold Dip Strategy: Avoid Shorts, Wait for Long EntriesThe current pullback in gold is characterized by upper shadow formations on candles, indicating underlying strength rather than structural weakness. Previous lows may now hold as reliable support. The true test of support strength lies in the velocity and conviction of bounces – repeated retests of a level typically signal weakening support, whereas strong trends don't constantly revisit lower shadows. Price action shows yesterday's overnight session broke above the European session high, confirming a consolidation pattern. Today's dip appears to be a technical correction following that overnight strength, increasing the probability of a recovery toward session highs. Trading Approach: If trading this range-bound strength scenario, consider light long exposure above 4072 with strict stops below this support zone. Recent gold volatility has intensified – $20 daily ranges are now common – requiring flexible position sizing and close attention to price reactions at key levels. 🟡 Gold Trading Plan Enter long lightly at 4072 Add to longs on a dip to 4063-4058 Stop loss: 4050 Target: 4100-4120
OANDA:XAUUSD
by High-Class