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XAUUSD 1D: Short Setup – Retracement to FVG Before DropKey Observations: Market Structure Shift (MSS): A recent large bearish candle (the red candle around October 20th) appears to have broken below a significant short-term low, which is often termed a Market Structure Shift (MSS) in institutional trading concepts. This indicates a potential change from bullish to bearish momentum. Fair Value Gap (FVG): An unfilled price area (marked by the gray shaded box) has been identified as a FVG. This zone often acts as a magnet where price is expected to return to "fill" the inefficiency before continuing its main direction. Liquidity/Return Levels (CRT-L and CRT-H):The Current Range Top CRT-L marks the top of the price inefficiency or the potential area where price could reverse after filling the FVG. The Current Range Low CRT-H marks the level where price has recently closed.Projected Move: The analysis suggests a short-term relief rally or retracement (dotted line) to move higher into the FVG area 4160$ to 4210$. Once the price moves into or near the FVG and potentially the CRT-L, the expectation is a strong bearish rejection (large green arrow) that would push the price back down, possibly towards or below the recent low CRT-H. Conclusion:The dominant short-term bias is bearish, but a temporary bullish retracement is anticipated to fill the Fair Value Gap before the bearish continuation.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
BTC WEEKLY OUTLOOK 4HR SETUP 📍 BTC Weekly Outlook | Bill Williams x ICT x Fractals This week, I’m maintaining a bullish bias on BTC as price action continues to respect key SMC and Bill Williams confluences. ✅ Why I’m Leaning Long 🔹 Fractal Shift + Market Structure Break We had a bullish fractal confirmation aligning with a BOS on the 4H — signaling a directional shift to the upside. 🔹 ICT Fair Value Gaps (FVG) + Order Blocks Price recently tapped into the 4H Bullish Order Block and rebalanced through the FVG. As long as we hold above this zone, I expect continuation. 🔹 Bill Williams Alligator Alignment The Alligator EMAs have opened to the upside — showing trend awakening after accumulation. Green above Red & Blue supports bullish momentum. 🧠 Key Levels to Watch 📍 Immediate Support (Re-test Zone): • ~111,100 – 111,700 → 4H OB + FVG alignment This is my ideal retracement zone for continuation longs. 📍 Deeper Discount (High-Probability Entry): • ~108,150 → 4H OB If the market gives a deeper pullback, this level is where I expect strong demand. 🎯 Weekly Outlook Expectation My expectation for the week: • Possible short-term retracement into discount → accumulation → expansion to the upside • Premium levels above current price remain unmitigated and attractive for liquidity draw. 📊 Bullish Roadmap Pullback into the 4H OB / FVG Confirm fractal + BOS on lower timeframes Ride expansion towards weekly liquidity targets
Long
by origami_capital33
Bitcoin Dominance Signals Major Alt Season AheadAfter months of Bitcoin's relentless dominance over the cryptocurrency market, I'm seeing clear technical signals that suggest we're on the brink of a massive shift. As someone who has been tracking Bitcoin dominance patterns from Dubai's bustling financial district, I can tell you that what's happening right now looks eerily similar to the setups we saw before the explosive altcoin rallies of 2017 and 2021. Let me break down what I'm seeing in the charts that has me convinced we're headed for what I call "Alt Season 2025." For the past several cycles, I've tracked a predictable rhythm in Bitcoin's market share. We get these extended "BTC Seasons" where Bitcoin soaks up most of the incoming crypto capital, followed by dramatic reversals where money floods into alternative cryptocurrencies. The numbers don't lie—and they're telling a compelling story right now. My Historical Analysis Reveals Diminishing Returns Here's what caught my attention: In 2017, when the first major alt season hit, Bitcoin dominance crashed by a staggering 42.93%. Fast forward to 2021, and we saw another dramatic rotation, but this time the drop was smaller at 32.29%. Now, based on the technical setup I'm seeing, I'm projecting the next alt season will deliver a 22.35% decline in Bitcoin dominance. The pattern is clear—each cycle sees diminishing magnitude, the same theory I've explained in detail here but the rotations are still significant enough to create life-changing opportunities in the altcoin space. What I find most intriguing about the current market structure is what I've dubbed the "Bear Trap Zone"—a critical resistance level that Bitcoin dominance keeps testing but can't seem to break through convincingly. I call it a bear trap because it lures traders into thinking altcoins are finished, that Bitcoin will continue its dominance indefinitely or the bull run is finished. But history shows us that when dominance reaches this zone, it's actually setting up for a major reversal. We're testing that zone right now. Technical Indicators Are Flashing Warning Signs. The momentum indicators I rely on are painting a clear picture. The RSI is showing what we call bearish divergence—while Bitcoin dominance has been grinding higher, the underlying momentum has been weakening. This is textbook behavior before major trend reversals. The MACD, another key indicator I watch, is consolidating near zero with declining volume. To me, this screams "calm before the storm." The market is coiling up for something big. My Structural Analysis Points to Imminent Breakout From a structural perspective, I've identified a long-term ascending wedge pattern that's been containing Bitcoin dominance since 2018. While this has provided support during bear markets, these wedge patterns typically resolve with sharp breakouts—and based on the momentum divergence I'm seeing, I expect this breakout to be to the downside. The beauty of this setup is that even as we expect dominance to fall, the overall trend shows each cycle's low is higher than the last. This tells me the crypto market is maturing, but the rotation opportunities remain substantial. What This Means for Investors If my analysis proves correct, we're potentially weeks or months away from one of those rare periods where altcoins dramatically outperform Bitcoin. These don't happen often—maybe once every 3-4 years—but when they do, the moves can be spectacular. I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to crash. What I'm suggesting is that money is likely to rotate from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into top few big and then into alternative cryptocurrencies, creating opportunities for those positioned correctly. The Dubai Perspective on Global Crypto Markets From my vantage point in Dubai, where we're seeing unprecedented institutional interest and regulatory clarity, the infrastructure is in place for a major capital rotation. The Middle East has become a crypto hub, and the smart money here is already positioning for this potential shift. My Bottom Line Prediction Based on everything I'm seeing—the technical patterns, the momentum divergence, and the historical precedent—I believe we're in the final stages of this Bitcoin dominance cycle. My projection shows Bitcoin dominance dropping from current levels to test long-term support, potentially creating the conditions for "Alt Season 2025." The question isn't whether this rotation will happen—based on the patterns I track, it's inevitable. The question is timing, and right now, all my indicators are suggesting that timing could be sooner than most expect. SAM. Support my work! 👋 If you're finding these technical analyses helpful and interesting, please: ✅ Follow my account for regular market insights ❤️ Like this post 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments Every follow, like, and comment motivates me to dig deeper into the charts and deliver even more valuable analysis to our growing community. Let's grow together! 🚀
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by SAM_2781