AUD200 SMC 1H - Price broke the previous high, pulled back to our order block, now fixing to push up to the previous high as our tp. Thoughts?
Chart Patterns
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) Sell Setup – 4H ChartCurrent price around ~89,300–89,600 after breaking major support at ~89,700–90,900 (red zone on chart). Clean breakout + rejection = bearish momentum shift. Sell/Short Entry: From current levels (89,300–89,600) or on retest of broken support as resistance (89,700–90,000).
Target: 85,533 (key lower level / potential demand zone or fib extension). Partial profits possible earlier at ~88,000 / 87,000 if momentum slows.
Stop Loss: Above 90,500–90,947 (above breakout invalidation / recent high). Bearish bias as long as price stays below broken support. Watch for increased volume on downside + risk-off sentiment in broader markets. Not financial advice – DYOR, trade at your own risk. Crypto is highly volatile, use proper risk management! #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #Trading #BitcoinTrading #Bearish #Breakout #ShortSetup #TradingView
Hindustan Zinc – Rounding Bottom Breakout (Pre-emptive)Hindustan Zinc – Rounding Bottom Breakout (Pre-emptive)
Setup: Rounding bottom formation on higher timeframe
CMP: ₹690
SL: ₹570 (structure breakdown)
🎯 Targets (trail progressively)
T1: ₹737 T2: ₹807 T3: ₹895 T4: ₹1,110 T5: ₹1,236
Fibonacci confluence: Long-term Fibonacci extension 1.61 ≈ ₹1,211, aligning with T5 zone → strengthens the structural target.
🔗 Why this works
Silver linkage: Hindustan Zinc benefits from silver strength; the ongoing global silver run supports the upside bias.
Fundamentals: Quarterly results were strong, improving confidence to hold through volatility.
Structure: Rounding bottom indicates accumulation → expansion if the neckline sustains.
⚠️ Risk & Execution Notes (read carefully)
If global cues turn unstable and silver corrects, expect sharp volatility.
Do NOT go all-in. Use staggered buying near dips/confirmations.
Strict position sizing is critical; patience required to capture higher targets.
Trail SL once T1–T2 is achieved to protect capital.
⚠️ Clarification:
This is an independent analysis based purely on technical and market study. No part of Religare is involved in this view or recommendation.
📝 Important:
I am not responsible for any loss or profit incurred. I am not taking any fees for these views – just sharing my analysis for educational and informational purposes.
📉 Disclaimer: Not SEBI-registered. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before taking any investment decision.
Quick BITCOIM 4 hour Update- suggested Bounce occuring but .....
We Got that Bounce that was suggested yesterday and for me, I think that 4.618 Fib extension is the target.
It will either Act as resistance or be Crossed and retested as support.
Both of these are possible and I have No idea which way this will go but I am slightly Bearish over all.
What I can see is that Bitcoin certainly has the ability in the shorter term
The 4 hour MACD
MACD down Low and turning with plenty of room to move higher.
Do remember, on the longer daily time Frame, MACD is still Falling Bearish and , so, I see this as a bounce that is unlikley to reach a higher high
4 Hour RSI
RSI bumping into its own MA and we wait to see if it crosses or not. But certainly has Room to move higher but is the same situation as the Daily MACD, Longer Term Bearish
So, Lets see how BTC PA Reacts to the 4.618. Resistance or will PA climb over and FLip it back to support.
We Wait
Crude Oil – Sell around 60.50, target 58.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has recently returned to its previous range-bound pattern on the daily chart. This range-bound movement has lasted for several months. Consider selling crude oil at 60.50 today. The bearish outlook for crude oil remains unchanged, and this view can be maintained as long as the daily chart doesn't break 62.00. Pay attention to the upcoming inventory data.
Fundamental Analysis:
This week's data is mostly routine and will have little impact on the market. Geopolitical factors also have little influence.
Trading Recommendation:
Crude Oil – Sell around 60.50, target 58.00-55.00
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders Pattern - Time to Sell Before Buying?Bitcoin has formed a clear head and shoulders pattern on both the daily and weekly charts—a historically bearish signal that typically leads to downside price action testing lower support levels.
Several bearish indicators are aligning:
- The Clarity Act has been delayed
- Exchange volume is declining
- ETF outflows remain consistently high
- Whales and institutional BTC promoters are taking profits
With Bitcoin trading below the 200-day EMA, we’ve already entered bear market territory. This is a natural part of the market cycle and will likely create a compelling buying opportunity in the near future.
If this pattern plays out as expected, anticipate a breakdown to $61k or lower, with a potential test of $87k resistance before the final move down. The current geopolitical climate adds further bearish pressure, and recent market reactions reveal heightened investor anxiety and the potential for a more significant correction.
Long-term outlook: BTC will eventually reach $1 million USD, but not this cycle. Don’t let institutions accumulate your BTC at discounted prices—wait for the next major dip to increase your position. NFA. Alternatively, consider using trailing stop losses to capture any upside from potential dead cat bounces.
GBPUSD SHORTselling opportunities valid because the internal structure had reversed and the momentum on rsi has shoe low volume to continue buys via hidden bearish divergence the continuation of short from external trend
Interest Rates and Inflation: Impact on Financial Markets1. Understanding Interest Rates and Inflation
Interest Rates:
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return earned on savings and investments. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S. or the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), set benchmark policy rates, which influence the overall interest rate environment in the economy. These rates act as a primary tool for controlling economic activity. When interest rates are high, borrowing becomes expensive, consumption slows down, and economic activity may contract. Conversely, low interest rates encourage borrowing, investing, and spending, stimulating economic growth.
Inflation:
Inflation is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services rises over time, eroding purchasing power. Moderate inflation is often considered a sign of a healthy economy, reflecting growing demand. However, excessive inflation can undermine economic stability, reduce real incomes, and distort financial markets. Central banks monitor inflation closely, often targeting a range (e.g., 2–4% in many countries) to maintain price stability.
2. The Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation
Interest rates and inflation share a bidirectional relationship:
Interest Rates Influence Inflation:
When central banks raise interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive, reducing consumer spending and corporate investment. This slowdown in demand can help curb inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates can boost spending and investment, potentially increasing inflation if the economy overheats.
Inflation Influences Interest Rates:
High inflation often compels central banks to raise interest rates to maintain price stability. Low inflation or deflation can lead to rate cuts to encourage spending and investment. Central banks use tools like the repo rate, reverse repo rate, and open market operations to influence liquidity and borrowing costs, thereby steering inflation toward desired targets.
3. Market Implications of Changing Interest Rates and Inflation
Interest rates and inflation have profound effects across financial markets:
a. Equity Markets:
Equities are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and inflation. Rising interest rates can depress stock valuations as higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies and reduce future earnings’ present value. Certain sectors like technology, growth stocks, and real estate are more vulnerable due to their reliance on cheap capital. Conversely, banking and financial sectors may benefit from higher rates due to increased net interest margins. Inflation also impacts equities by influencing consumer purchasing power and corporate costs. Moderate inflation may boost revenues in some sectors, but runaway inflation can squeeze margins and reduce profitability.
b. Fixed-Income Markets:
Bonds and other fixed-income instruments are directly affected by interest rates. When rates rise, existing bond prices fall because new issues offer higher yields, making older bonds less attractive. Inflation erodes the real return on fixed-income investments, prompting investors to demand higher yields for long-term bonds. Inflation-linked bonds, such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the U.S., become more attractive in high-inflation environments.
c. Currency Markets:
Interest rates are a key driver of currency strength. Higher rates attract foreign capital seeking better returns, strengthening the domestic currency. Conversely, lower rates may weaken the currency. Inflation differentials between countries also influence currency markets; higher domestic inflation relative to trading partners can erode currency value, reducing purchasing power internationally.
d. Commodities:
Inflation and interest rates significantly impact commodity markets. Commodities like gold are often seen as a hedge against inflation. Rising interest rates, however, can make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing investments. Energy prices, agricultural products, and metals are influenced by inflation expectations, as higher prices may reflect higher production costs or stronger demand.
4. Central Bank Policies and Market Reactions
Central banks play a pivotal role in balancing growth and inflation. Policy decisions are closely monitored by markets:
Rate Hikes:
Typically implemented to curb high inflation. Markets may react negatively to unexpected rate hikes, fearing slower economic growth and reduced corporate profits. Equity markets often experience short-term corrections, while bond yields rise.
Rate Cuts:
Implemented to stimulate economic activity during periods of low growth or deflation. Equity markets often respond positively due to lower borrowing costs and improved corporate earnings prospects. However, excessive cuts may signal economic weakness, creating volatility.
Forward Guidance:
Central banks also influence markets through communication, indicating future monetary policy moves. Clear guidance reduces uncertainty, allowing markets to adjust expectations. Ambiguous messaging can cause sharp market reactions.
5. Inflation Expectations and Market Psychology
Market participants often react not only to actual inflation but also to inflation expectations. If investors anticipate higher inflation in the future, they may demand higher yields on bonds, adjust stock valuations, or increase holdings in commodities like gold. Conversely, expectations of low inflation can encourage risk-taking in equities and other growth-oriented assets.
The concept of the “real interest rate”—nominal interest rate minus inflation—is critical here. Even if nominal rates remain low, high inflation can result in negative real rates, incentivizing investment in real assets over cash or bonds.
6. Historical Perspectives and Lessons
History offers several examples illustrating the interplay between interest rates, inflation, and markets:
1970s Stagflation:
High inflation combined with stagnant economic growth led to poor stock market performance. Central banks had to hike interest rates aggressively, causing bond prices to plummet.
2008 Global Financial Crisis:
Central banks cut rates to near-zero levels to stimulate growth, demonstrating the link between low rates and increased liquidity, which eventually fueled asset price recoveries.
Post-COVID Era:
Inflationary pressures following supply chain disruptions led central banks worldwide to raise rates, impacting equity and bond markets, while highlighting the sensitivity of markets to interest rate signals.
7. Strategic Implications for Investors and Corporates
Understanding the interplay between interest rates and inflation helps investors and companies make strategic decisions:
Portfolio Management:
Diversification across asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities, currencies) can mitigate risks from changing interest rate and inflation environments. Inflation-protected securities, high-quality dividend stocks, and commodities can serve as hedges.
Corporate Financing:
Companies must time debt issuance considering interest rate trends. Rising rates increase borrowing costs, impacting expansion and profitability.
Monetary Risk Hedging:
Investors use derivatives like interest rate swaps, futures, and options to hedge against rate and inflation risks, protecting portfolio returns.
8. Conclusion
Interest rates and inflation are deeply interconnected forces that shape the financial market landscape. Their dynamic relationship influences economic growth, investment decisions, asset valuations, and global capital flows. For market participants, understanding these variables and anticipating central bank actions is crucial for risk management and strategic positioning. As economies continue to evolve in response to global shocks, technological shifts, and demographic trends, the ability to interpret interest rate and inflation signals remains a cornerstone of successful financial market navigation.
XAUUSD PROFESSIONAL CHART ANALYSIS Price has printed a strong impulsive bullish move, breaking out of the prior consolidation range.
The rally looks extended, and current candles show hesitation near the highs → sign of short-term exhaustion.
Overall structure still bullish, but corrective pullback is likely before continuation.
Key Resistance (Sell Zone)
4,885 – 4,900
This zone aligns with:
Recent swing high
Possible supply / profit-taking area
Rejection from this zone favors short-term sell trades.
Key Support Levels
4,822 – 4,800 → 1st Target
4,780 – 4,760 → Final Target
These levels coincide with:
Previous breakout area
Bullish imbalance / demand zone
Potential trend continuation zone
XAGUSD Is Topping Out — Smart Money Is Selling Here ???OANDA:XAGUSD Price is trading below the major resistance zone (95.20–95.50).
This zone aligns with previous highs + Pivot R1, making it a strong supply area.
Recent bullish move looks corrective, not impulsive.
RSI (~59) is below overbought and showing weak bullish momentum, suggesting upside is limited.
🧠 Trade Idea (Logic)
The market has already shown:
A strong rejection from the 95.20–95.50 zone previously.
A lower-high structure, indicating sellers are still in control.
The expectation:
Price may retest the selling zone, show hesitation/consolidation, then
Continue the bearish move toward the prior demand near 93.90.
📍 Trade Setup Summary
🟥 Bias
SELL
🎯 Entry Zone
95.20 – 95.50
(Wait for price to tap this zone and show rejection such as wicks, small candles, or RSI stall.)
🛑 Stop Loss
Above 95.80
Above the recent high and resistance.
Invalidation point: If price holds above this, bearish idea is wrong.
🎯 Take Profit
TP: 93.90
Clear support / demand zone
Previous reaction low
Logical place for buyers to step in
📊 Risk–Reward
Approximate RR: 1:2.5 to 1:3
Strong asymmetric setup (small risk, larger reward)
🧩 Confirmation Checklist (Optional but Strong)
Before entering, look for:
Rejection wicks in the sell zone
Bearish engulfing or pin bar
RSI failing to break above 60–65
Weak bullish candles / loss of moment
BTCUSD: Retracement from elevated levelsBTCUSD trended in a pattern of pulling back from highs and extending weak consolidation during the intraday session. Hit by the escalation of U.S.-EU tariff frictions, rising geopolitical risks and a sell-off in risk assets, the price plummeted sharply from the high of $95,500 and now hovers within the range of $87,000–$91,000. Market panic sentiment is mounting, bears hold the upper hand technically, and rebound momentum remains constrained.
Support Levels:
Short-term Strong Support: 87,000 (lower boundary of the intraday consolidation range, key support zone for rebounds)
Secondary Support: 86,000 (weekly moving average support, previous congestion zone)
Medium-term Support: 85,000 (defensive line for the medium-term trend)
Resistance Levels:
Short-term Strong Resistance: 91,000 (intraday rebound resistance level, bears’ defensive line)
Secondary Resistance: 92,000 (4-hour moving average resistance, key resistance for rebounds)
Medium-term Resistance: 95,000–96,000 (previous all-time high, a strong resistance zone dominated by bears)
Trading Strategy:
Buy 88000 - 88500
SL 87500
TP 90500 - 91000 - 92000
Sell 91000 - 91500
SL 92000
TP 89500 - 88000 - 87200
ORDI Approaching Decision Zone!! CRYPTOCAP:ORDI update 👀
ORDI is pulling back after the recent impulse and is now approaching a critical support zone around $3.8–$4.0.
This area has acted as strong demand in the past and is the key level bulls need to defend.
If price holds this support and shows a reaction, a bounce back toward $4.8–$5.0 is possible.
However, a clean breakdown below this zone would weaken the structure and could open the door for deeper downside.
➡️ This is a decision area, watching closely for support confirmation or breakdown.
Gold rallies to new highs consecutivelyGold extended yesterday’s trend and maintained a strong pattern of surging to a new record high followed by oscillating upward today. The price action is jointly driven by geopolitical risks, a weaker U.S. dollar and capital inflows. Technically, the bullish momentum remains robust, yet short-term overbought signals have emerged, warranting caution against a pullback from elevated levels.
Support Levels:
Short-term Strong Support: 4,850 (lower boundary of the intraday consolidation range, key support zone on pullbacks)
Secondary Support: 4,820 (short-term moving average support, bulls’ near-term defensive line)
Medium-term Supports: 4,800 (psychological round number + middle band of the Bollinger Bands, anchor for the bullish trend); 4,760 (previous high turned support)
Resistance Levels:
Short-term Strong Resistance: 4,880 (record high resistance, requires significant volume to break out)
Secondary Resistance: 4,900 (psychological round number, institutional near-term target)
Medium-term Resistance: 5,000 (market consensus target, key psychological level)
Trading Strategy:
Buy 4850 - 4860
SL 4840
TP 4880 - 4890 - 5000
Tips:If price breaks below 4,820 support, stay aside or go short small, SL 4,840, TP 4,800.
Global equity ex-USA vs SP500Global equity ex-USA (VEO) on the verge of bottoming vs VOO. Not the clearest of breakouts but worth keeping an eye on. Weekly chart beginning to confirm a breakout above descending trendline.
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action – Resistance Breakout & Target SetupThis image shows a Gold (XAU/USD) 45-minute TradingView chart illustrating a strong bullish move.
Price has sharply moved up from the lower levels, indicating strong buying momentum. A support level is marked around 4804, from where price accelerated upward. The chart highlights an entry zone near 4858–4872, which is also marked as a resistance level. Price is currently testing this resistance area.
Above the resistance, a target level is marked around 4910–4920, suggesting a potential upside objective if price breaks and holds above resistance. Overall, the chart represents a bullish breakout setup, where confirmation above resistance could lead to further upward movement in gold prices.
nas100 reboundi see nas bouncing off this trend line and pushing further up to start retesting levels above 25100-25300
global market ex-USA vs Brazilmassive multi-year cup and handle on the verge of breaking out. global equity ex-USA to outperform Brazil
WTO and Global Trading: The Framework of International CommerceFoundations and Objectives of the WTO
At its core, the WTO is built on a set of fundamental principles that govern international trade. These include non-discrimination, embodied in the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle and National Treatment; trade liberalization through tariff reduction and removal of non-tariff barriers; predictability and transparency in trade policies; fair competition; and special and differential treatment for developing nations. Together, these principles aim to create a level playing field and reduce arbitrary trade restrictions.
The WTO serves multiple functions: it administers trade agreements, acts as a forum for trade negotiations, resolves trade disputes, monitors national trade policies, provides technical assistance to developing countries, and cooperates with other international organizations such as the IMF and World Bank. This multifaceted role makes the WTO not just a rule-making body, but also a guardian of the global trading order.
WTO Agreements and Global Trade Architecture
The WTO oversees a wide range of agreements that cover goods, services, and intellectual property. Key agreements include the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) for goods, the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). These agreements define market access conditions, set legal obligations, and establish mechanisms for enforcement.
Over the decades, WTO agreements have significantly reduced average global tariff levels, expanded market access, and integrated emerging economies into the global trading system. Countries like China, India, and Vietnam have leveraged WTO membership to boost exports, attract foreign investment, and accelerate economic growth. Global value chains (GVCs) have flourished under predictable trade rules, allowing firms to source inputs and sell products across borders efficiently.
Dispute Settlement: The Backbone of Credibility
One of the WTO’s most critical contributions to global trade is its Dispute Settlement Mechanism (DSM). This system allows member countries to resolve trade disputes through a rules-based, legal process rather than unilateral retaliation or trade wars. By providing binding rulings, the DSM enhances trust and stability in the global trading system.
However, in recent years, the dispute settlement system has faced significant challenges, particularly the paralysis of the Appellate Body due to appointment blockages. This has weakened enforcement and raised concerns about rule compliance. Despite these issues, the WTO’s dispute settlement framework remains a vital reference point for managing trade conflicts and preventing escalation.
WTO and Developing Economies
For developing and least-developed countries (LDCs), the WTO offers both opportunities and challenges. On the positive side, WTO membership provides access to global markets under agreed rules, protection against discriminatory trade practices, and technical assistance to build trade capacity. Special provisions allow developing countries longer implementation periods and greater policy flexibility.
At the same time, critics argue that the benefits of WTO-led globalization have been uneven. Many developing nations struggle with limited institutional capacity, dependence on commodity exports, and exposure to volatile global markets. Balancing trade liberalization with domestic development goals remains a key policy challenge, making reform and flexibility within the WTO framework increasingly important.
WTO in the Era of Globalization and Geopolitics
Global trade today is shaped not only by economics but also by geopolitics. Rising protectionism, strategic trade policies, sanctions, and the reshoring or “friend-shoring” of supply chains have tested the WTO’s relevance. Major economies increasingly resort to bilateral and regional trade agreements, sometimes bypassing multilateral negotiations.
Despite these pressures, the WTO continues to provide a neutral platform for dialogue and coordination. Issues such as subsidies, state-owned enterprises, trade and climate change, digital trade, and supply chain resilience are now at the center of global trade debates. Updating WTO rules to address these modern challenges is essential for maintaining its credibility.
Digital Trade and the Future of Global Commerce
The rapid growth of e-commerce, data flows, and digital services has transformed global trade patterns. While the WTO’s original agreements were designed for a goods-centric world, members are now negotiating rules on digital trade, cross-border data flows, and electronic transmissions. A permanent moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions has helped support the digital economy, but disagreements remain over data governance and digital sovereignty.
As technology reshapes trade, the WTO’s ability to adapt its rules will determine whether it remains relevant in the 21st century global economy.
WTO Reform and the Road Ahead
Reforming the WTO has become a global priority. Key reform areas include restoring the dispute settlement system, modernizing rules on subsidies and industrial policy, improving transparency, and enhancing inclusiveness for developing countries. Climate-related trade measures, such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms, also require multilateral coordination to avoid fragmentation and disputes.
The future of global trading depends on a strong, effective, and inclusive WTO. While challenges are significant, abandoning multilateralism would risk greater trade fragmentation, uncertainty, and conflict.
Conclusion
The WTO remains a foundational pillar of global trading, providing rules, stability, and a forum for cooperation in an increasingly complex world. While it faces serious challenges from geopolitical tensions, protectionism, and rapid technological change, its role in promoting predictable and fair trade is more important than ever. Strengthening and reforming the WTO is not just about preserving an institution—it is about safeguarding the future of global commerce and economic cooperation.
EUR/USD Bullish Trend Continuation & Liquidity Sweepchart suggests a high-probability long (buy) setup based on the following technical factors:
• Market Structure Shift (CHoCH): The early part of the chart shows a "Change of Character" (CHoCH) from a bearish to a bullish bias. This indicates that the previous downward momentum has been broken, and buyers are now in control.
• Break of Structure (BOS): You can see multiple points labeled "BOS." These occur when the price breaks above a previous swing high, confirming that the uptrend is healthy and forming higher highs and higher lows.
• Liquidity Internal Sweep: The zig-zag lines (marked with red CHoCH labels in the middle) show a period of consolidation or "inducement." This is where the market "traps" early sellers before pivoting back to the main bullish trend.
• Demand Zone Entry: The green box represents a "Long Position" tool. It is placed right at a point of interest (POI)—likely a Demand Zone or an Order Block—where price found support after a brief retracement.
• Targeting "Strong High": The large green arrow points toward the "Strong High" (red horizontal line). In SMC, a "Strong High" is often a target for liquidity. The expectation is that the price will move to clear out the stop-losses sitting just above that level.
EURCAD Short term outlook EURCAD is showing signs of a potential trend shift after breaking above the descending trendline that has capped price for weeks. The breakout is backed by a strong bullish close, suggesting buyers are stepping in. As long as price holds above the reclaimed trendline and nearby support, upside continuation toward the next resistance zone is favored. A pullback into this area that holds would strengthen the bullish case, while a move back below the trendline would invalidate the setup.
Potential bullish reversal?GBP/CHF is reacting off the pivot whic has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 1.0616
1st Support: 1.0561
1st Resistance: 1.0688
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