Google vs Apple; How Android will kill Apple.Fact;
- Apple (iPhone, etc.) is entirely (100%) sourced from China;
- Google (Android) is 100% sourced from S. Korea & Japan.
1) Considering the abject population collapse - and massive DE-industralization!! - of China, it will take YEARS for Apple to relocate it's entire supply chain. (To N. America?) E.g. Apple will be lucky to bring out a new iPhone every other year - even that being overly optimistic.
2) Barring an outright armed conflict between S. Korea and Japan (very unlikely) Google's supply chain should be just fine, mostly unaffected by the coming Chinese de-urbanization and de-industrialization. (... which China will be forced to endure in order to feed the *** 800 million Chinese ***, which is what will be left in that country, by 2035.)
When will this purported Chinese population collapse and total de-industrialization begin?? ... You are in it!
(It is well worth to pay attention to it because it will (continue to) be spectacular!!)
Simultaneously, the technical picture is also very favorable for the upside, in this spread.
Chinatech
BEKE reversal momentumBEKE, KE Holdings, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China is bullish after the chinese government pledged to support markets
80.75Bil revenue in 2021.
52 Week Range 7.31 - 61.39
I see a reversal to $20.50 short term.
NTES Price TargetPrice target for NTES is $84.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
BEKE Price TargetPrice target for BEKE is $19.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
JD Price TargetPrice target for JD is $62.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
CWEB Weekly Options PlayDescription
CWEB has been working it down from its ATH since FEB of this year, and has gotten stopped up in the congestion pattern.
I have been watching it to pick a direction to enter a position and it looks like it finally has broken to the downside.
I have been using Long Puts in all my short positions because I do not want to cap my downside potential to leave it open for fat tail scenarios in the current market environment.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 17.5
This level marks an all-time low in the security.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/17 16P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for highest chance of profit at expiration.
12/17 is all I'm willing to go with for expiration because I do not want to pay the extra premium to push it out to January.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Alibaba Breakout + SeasonalityBABA broke out two days ago, with above average intraday volume.
OBV is confirming slight positive trend.
Taking a look at seasonality:
We are entering July, which has been THE best performing month in the past 8 years.
BABA has closed higher than it opened 83% of the time in July, since 2014.
Approximate Potential Target ---> $275
Pinduoduo Holds Key Level as China Tech StabilizesChinese technology stocks like Pinduoduo were among the top performers in 2020. They’ve pulled back hard in the last two months, but now certain members of the group are showing signs of stability.
PDD could have the most interesting patterns. First is its recent bounce around $120, which matches a high-volume bullish gap from a strong earnings report on November 12.
Second, consider how that line corresponds with the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Next is the upward-turning MACD.
PDD might not be well known in the U.S., but its $160 billion market cap makes it bigger than about 90 percent of the S&P 500. It gained more than 550 percent between April 2020 and February 2021.
We can also look at some of its peers like Bilibili, Vishops and Baidu.
BILI has basing pattern around $100:
VIPS has based out around its 200-day SMA with some kicker candlesticks near the lows:
BIDU has held $200 following a single high-volume bounce from under $180:
Consider last the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index , which tracks the broader Chinese technology group. It bounced twice at its 200-day SMA. Also notice how buyers defended 15,000, which was a peak in late December. Is old resistance new support?
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Photronic Future Projection and DD over the coming ~3 monthsI project an increase in the stock price of NASDAQ:PLAB due to:
Increase in revenue since the last quarter.
Commitment to Chinese and Taiwanese production plants that have a solid backing of governmental support.
New technologies within the industry combined with a solid demand that wont decrease and the mono-product nature of Photronic.
Demand for smartphones and similar products have increased in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021.
Internally the company believes that the industry-wide stocks is oversold, as told in their 'Photronics Q1 - FY21 Earnings' web-conference available on their website.
The lack of supply of their product market-wide has made possible for the first time in 35 years an increase in main-stream pricing of their product, as shared in the same conference at the 40 minute mark.
Available on the website is also two videos, hosted on YouTube, discussing two of their most recent production plants in China. But the low view-count (500) tells me they are videos made for investment meetings and similar meetings and therefore the company itself are making big steps to increase their production and gain governmental and private support.
As far as indicators go:
The MACD is below 0 and looks to move over the signal line and over the 0 line again.
The Ichimoku cloud has a red cloud within the near future but I project that it will quickly close and return to a green cloud.
The RSI is below the mid line and the current situation is reflected in past movements of the RSI.
As far as fundamentals go:
The support and resistance of the stock has had incremental increases since the start of the quarter.
The revenue movement compared to last years Q1 is only -2%, which is a market situation that doesn't reflect most other industries as many are still recovering from the effects of Covid-19.
As far as the only negative I can find in this DD is that the CEO of the company sold a fifth of his personal stocks for an undervalued price of around 11$ at the turn of the year. It could be personal reasons or a need for more capital in the company could have necessitated this sell of, but in any case its the only point I cannot fully explain or reason, but that may also be down to a lack of experience on my own part. If you have any thoughts on this please share.
Personally, I have an alert set for the crossing of the Ichimoku Conversion line up and over the Ichimoku Base Line to indicate a value increase that could projectically rise and stay risen at least temporarily over the next month or two.
Thank you, and please, if you have any other thoughts or counter-points make sure to share them so I may discuss this symbol with you.
Trump WeChat ban shouldn’t worry China tech stocksPowerful out performance in China tech unlikely to be undone by new Trump executive order
Alibaba's chart resembles Apple before its recent breakoutToday was Singles Day for cyber-shoppers in Asia. The annual event by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) set another record, up 27 percent from 2018.
Earnings have beaten estimates for the last three quarters. BABA's also a key stock to watch if trade relations between the U.S. and China continue to show signs of improvement.
Still, it's been trapped in a range all year while making higher lows. Interestingly, the current price action may resemble Apple (AAPL) about two months ago. The iPhone maker was in a range and holding its 50-day SMA. Then it broke a triangle and paused for a few weeks before heading to new highs. Does BABA face a similar setup now?
BABA AAPL
Here's the AAPL chart showing price action in September and October:
















