Charts sez it all.
Although I'd like to add it amazes me how many Gurus fail
to comprehend what is ongoing.
Think Bank Credit.
Think UK Mortagage Halt.
Let's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away.
Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish.
It may, however, be cringeworthy.
NQ below 200 W SMA.
What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below
this most important of level @ 3585.55.
Powell - simple... NO...
Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy.
1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs.
2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs.
3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything.
Powell - Bonds are...
Jackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview.
Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the
That is a suicide, assured.
See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining
further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and
make adjustments among our small group of live...
FOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events:
1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs.
2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell.
3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31
and VIX Curve inversion.
Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in...
Weekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those
riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere.
The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and
reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that
bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the...
The 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate
and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate.
A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens.
Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63
in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a...
Options Leverage has become increasingly popular over the past decade. In the past 30 months,
their popularity has risen significantly relative to the Underlying Instrument.
Increasingly so, Options tend to move Prices through the effects of Leverage.
This is why we see Stocks Split, it vastly reduces the Price of Entry and increases the Potential
Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th
Quad Witch Expiration.
This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion
added to the hoard of Puts Friday.
Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging....
The USD pulled back overnight on the ECB's 75 BPS Hike, until the October 21st FOMC Rate decision
is announced the DXY can easily see downside pressure.
Traders began to move against the Dollar as Major Asian Markets opened and again - ahead of the
EU Session open @ 3 AM EST, by 3:30 AM EST.
The Inversion lift was provided to the ES NQ YM RTY GC & SI @ 3 AM...
Higher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows
at the 390.85 Level.
394 is backtesting Support
399.50 is the initial Resistance.
Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and
Continuing Jobless Claims.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer
Credit @ 3 PM...
August did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure.
RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex.
TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates?
At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging
Will the VIX Spike...
What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market.
Let's see if they can recapture the 377...
It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross
being a 199/377 2X affair.
The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s
For the ES - 3910 to 4120.
NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818
The week is young,...
8 Minutes and 49 Seconds:
"The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now
is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal."
"Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools
forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance."
"While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market...
Friday was rough for Traders' offsides. I'm reluctant to even state the obvious at this point
as it is self-evident. If you were on the incorrect side, feel for you as it was an insidious trap.
In conversations with Traders, the large majority were Buyers for Friday. My bias was lower
and a Negative close as SPX buyers had positioned for the Kill.
The Falcon and...
Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap.
Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides.
Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days.
Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+.
Buyers need to not hear...
How often does the Market reward both when they are aligned?
Rare to see both seeking Prices to move higher, and potentially
why Wall Street will shake things up with a few surprises.
Volumes declined significantly yesterday.
NVDA reports today.
In all probability, they will attempt to...
Increasingly, competitive crosscurrents are creating notional Equity Directional disturbances.
A large number of Investors/Traders have convinced themselves the Federal Reserve was attempting
to Bluff the Markets.
Running Indexes up off the Mid-June at the greatest rate of change in history once the SloMo began
to move through its varying psychological...