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Coal

CLDP: A Very Cheap Earnings PlayPer TradingView, Cloud Peak Energy's Next E.R. Is This Friday I think this stock has some pretty good looking T.A. - OBV is kissing a critical resistance level. - Chaikin Oscillator had an explosive move up from its' low on this daily timeframe. It seems ready to test the 0 line soon. - It's broken overhead resistance on higher volume than we've seen it trading at recently, so good news of any sort that drives buying volume into the name could easily propel this thing up. I also like the fact that Rennaisance Technologies has continued to add to their position in the name over the past few quarters. I'm throwing this one out there as an E.R. play as well because at its last close of 0.074200 today, you could get a good amount of shares with a maximum loss of seven cents on each 'bet'. Could be a floozie, but I figured most of the adventurous E.R. players out there should at least get a peak at this. I'm currently holding no position but will be looking at tomorrow's action for a possible entry. Trade Safe, - dros www.androstrades.com
C
by androsForm
1
Correlations Between AUDUSD, Coal, and Iron OreI've been taking quite a deep look at the relationship between correlatives of the Australian dollar lately. There's no question that this deep dive would be remiss without looking at correlation coefficients between AUDUSD and that of commodities it exports, primarily iron ore and coal. The chart really speaks for itself. Aussie dollar sees strength when coal and iron prices are up, weakness when its down. Pretty simple. Not much more to say beyond that, but the implications for this relationship are quite fundamental to several questions vis-a-vis the Australian economy such as financial diversification, their reliance upon Chinese imports, not to mention the environmental tolls the Aussies have suffered from global carbon emissions. All issues, public policy or financial, must recognize this important financial relationship before going forward to reassess any changes to the economy that come down on it. At the very least, the implications of these correlations need to be recognized.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Coal can Perhaps Rest for a Day or TwoCoal has been on the rise and it is now at the same level as in 2012 before it collapse all the way to 50s in 2016. This prediction is a bit shabby, but I tried my best because this commodity has been supporting Indonesia's economy since late 2017, and another reason that this analysis is shabby because I'm not using the candle, I used Heikin Ashi in order to undertand the full movement of the price... Anyhow, I do believe the price should normalize to 109 before it bounces back - why do I believe that it will bounce back? Because it's almost winter, hence the demand for coal will be higher for heating purposes, especially in the US and China. And the price will floats around 118.31, it may break - and if it breaks, hence there will be a new bullish trendline. January until March/April will be crucial because if the weather turns out to be colder than expected, hence it may as well be as high as 120 - 130 before it normalize with range of 100 - 120.
ICEEUR:NCF1!
by DiazAdrian
Has the Market Mispriced Refined Coal?Just finished writing a detailed analysis of ADES in which I talk about the growing demand for refined coal both in the United States, and more importantly Southeast Asia. ADES is sitting on loads of cash, its turning around its cash from operations, and has a solid catalyst in its chemicals business that puts it ahead of the industry. Using DCF it has a fair value of around $22/share when using the average EPS over the last four years. The technicals aren't great, but I like the support level and am looking for a bounce from support. Check out my post if you're interested, and please, leave feedback if my analysis is missing something or if I am overlooking anything: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com
ALong
by BrandonBeylo
4
Cokal Limited Potential RerateCokal Limited have recently announced a non binding LOI for the sale of 50,000 tonnes of high grade coal per month. The LOI is expected to move over the next few days into a binding agreement which should see the company achieve a valuation based on the project economics The project basics Non binding LOI for A$400m of coal sales at 50k t/month US$126/t assumed price therefore A$164/t (discount to be negotiated for pre payment) 50,000t = A$8.2m/month implied revenue A$98m p.a Margin expected to be around A$40/t, $24 m/year or 3.7cps The companies cash reserves are low however the terms in the LOI are designed with a prepayment of approx $25m to cover the costs involved in mining. Assuming that the deal progresses to binding then the market should begin to value the company based on future revenue. Initial target is 15c which will rely on a binding agreement to be achieved
ASX:CKALong
by Michaeljob