If we get a nice Santa Clause melt-up, followed by a sell off in January, expect people to flock to utilities.
The first bill everybody pays is their electricity bill. If we start to get the handle formation, I'm betting the house as soon as we gap up.
There are two ways to trade this. One is to short TSO to $73.40, and if the resistance holds, go long until $77.90. That's too risky.
You can do that, but I'd rather play this as a straddle. Sell the $70 puts (1.25) and $80 calls (1.31) September calls.
Max Profit: $256 per option.
If oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run.
The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars.
Important to note that NOT all refiners are ...
Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher ...
No reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell.
MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE ...
If you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted.
This is technicals-only trade devoid of ...
Get em while they're cheap! You might find cheaper premiums on HFC as they nose-dived yesterday, but MPC has stronger fundamentals IMO.
And a reminder like always, MPC has a history of bucking the market the market: SPY.
In regard to fundamentals, this is an oversold reaction to MPC and other refiners' posting losses for Q1 2016. We all knew the refining ...
Please compare this to my previous post where I had drawn the Fib retracement. I have redrawn this to capture the double bottoms. I was not sure if it could break out from it's previous fib level and so far this previous retracement model is holding up.
I have said this many times, but will say it again. MPC has a history of bucking the market and is doing so ...
Today's was the first breakout for MPC from the fib retracement. It is topping out back to the January lows. This MAY be a point to where the trade switches from fundamentals before it trades off of something technical. Just general discussion.
I sold today. Please comment.
I was long at $36 handle on Tuesday. I sold at $38.70 which it is straddling right now at the top of the fib retracement. MPC is outperforming other refiners today like VLO, HFC, PSX.
There is no technical support above $38.70. Either it breaks out to $50+ or rather I am looking to buy another dip below this fib line if there is no sustained upside support for ...
Yesterday MPC closed at $36.47 on a late rally exactly at its 2nd fib line for which there is previous support at that level. It's been hard for this stock to breakout past $37 with analyst price targets in the $50s. It needs momentum.
I've been long MPC for a number of reasons. I'm just bored. Quiet day. The most important thing is that it's found a bottom at $29 after free-falling with no support unless you go back to 2012. This stock is down -50% since early Dec 2015.
Disclosure: I am long MPC.