GOLD UPDATE
Important caption
If it's me, I would rather be patient before taking any action. We have resistance here at this level. We might see a small green leg to grab the liquidity above the channel. After that, a small pullback to gather strength to move.
These are all theories based on what we see on the chart right now.
Wait for confirmations before you act.
Good luck.
Stay tuned for our next updates.
@SHARP-SHOT
Commodities
kvmev - XAUUSD FORECAST - 25/01/2026 - 30/01/2026Gold is currently sitting at all-time highs.
Knowing that DXY usually moves opposite of Gold, we can see it ended the week rejecting $98.000 and closing below a strong support zone at $97.700 with a heavy bearish engulfing candlestick.
If DXY continues down towards the next support zone at $96.600 it could result in Gold continuing towards the upside and possibly reaching $5030-$5050
We may also see accumulation happen early on in the week where DXY ascends to retest the resistance level at $97.700 and Gold retesting $4965 before it breaks structure at $4985 and continues bullish.
Will be watching Gold for a break of structure & break and retest on the 30m/1h time frame for an entry.
SILVER: Bears Will Push
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the SILVER pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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USOIL: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The price of USOIL will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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WHEAT — Watching This Area CloselyWheat is pushing into a bearish WCL , and what’s interesting is that a bullish ABC (red) already hit its C right inside this zone .
Usually, that’s where things slow down.
At least a pause. A wick. Something.
Instead, price just kept going.
No real rejection.
No obvious momentum loss.
No bearish structure shift.
That tells me sellers showed up, but they didn’t get control. Feels more like absorption than resistance right now.
As long as price holds structure up here, I’m not fighting it. The move still looks alive, and the next area I’m watching is around ~$5.50 .
If this zone suddenly rejects hard and structure flips bearish, then fine — idea’s invalid. Simple.
For now, just watching how price behaves here.
Not financial advice.
How I Protect Capital When Trading Gold (XAUUSD)Capital First. Profit Is a Consequence.
After years of trading gold, I’ve come to a very simple conclusion:
Most traders don’t lose because their analysis is bad —
they lose because they fail to protect their capital.
Gold is a high-volatility market. It reacts aggressively to news, liquidity, and sentiment.
If risk is not controlled, one wrong trade can erase weeks of solid performance.
Below are the core principles I personally follow when trading XAUUSD.
1. Capital Protection Is the Strategy
I don’t treat risk management as a secondary task.
For me, it is the strategy.
Before every trade, the first question I ask is not:
- “How far can price go?”
But:
- “If this trade is wrong, what happens to my account?”
If the answer makes me uncomfortable, I simply don’t take the trade.
2. Small Risk Means You Can Stay in the Game
Gold often moves in the right direction —
but it can also move deeply against you before continuing.
That’s why I always:
- Keep risk per trade small
- Accept missing opportunities rather than oversizing positions
There is no such thing as a guaranteed setup.
As long as you protect your capital, opportunities will always return.
3. Stop Loss Is Non-Negotiable
I never trade gold without a stop loss.
Not because I lack confidence,
but because I understand one thing clearly:
The market owes me nothing.
A stop loss doesn’t prevent losses —
it ensures losses stay small, controlled, and survivable.
4. I Don’t Trade Every Market Condition
Not every movement is an opportunity.
I avoid trading when:
- The market is noisy and lacks structure
- Price action becomes unstable ahead of major news
- My psychological state is not optimal
Choosing not to trade is also a professional decision.
5. Psychology Protects Capital Before Any Strategy
Most drawdowns don’t come from bad systems.
They come from:
- Holding losses out of ego
- Revenge trading
- Overtrading during emotional highs
When discipline and mindset are stable,
capital protection becomes automatic.
Conclusion
Trading gold is not a race to get rich quickly.
It’s a long-term game of discipline, patience, and risk control.
My priority is simple: protect capital first.
If I do that well, profits will take care of themselves.
📌 If this post adds value, feel free to like, comment, or follow for more XAUUSD insights.
📈 Stay disciplined. Trade the process.
ETHUSD, 1H chart pattern ....(ETHUSD, 1H chart pattern):
Current structure:
Descending triangle / compression
Price is below Ichimoku cloud → bearish bias, but breakout is close
🎯 Targets
If bullish breakout (above trendline & cloud):
Target 1: 3,020
Target 2: 3,075–3,080
If bearish continuation (breaks support):
Target 1: 2,900
Target 2: 2,850 zone
⚠️ Wait for clear candle close above/below the triangle before entry.
If my want, I can also give entry + stop-loss levels.
GBPJPY 4H chart pattern ...GBPJPY 4H chart pattern .
🎯 Targets (measured & structure-based)
Neckline area: ~212.00
✅ Target 1 (conservative / TP1)
209.80 – 210.00
First major horizontal support
Matches my upper “target point” line
Good area for partials
🎯 Target 2 (pattern completion / TP2)
207.80 – 208.00
Full H&S measured move
Aligns with prior demand + liquidity pool
This is the main target on my chart
🔻 Extension (if risk-off / JPY strength accelerates)
206.50 – 206.00
Next clean demand zone from previous structure
❌ Invalidation
Bearish setup weakens if price reclaims and holds above 213.30–213.50
Especially if it gets back above the Ichimoku cloud
Summary:
Bias = bearish continuation
Best target = 208.0 area 🎯
XAUUSD (Gold) – 1H | Breakout → Range → Rejection SetupGold has shown a strong bullish impulse after a clean channel breakout, confirming buyers’ strength. Price is now moving into a key sell zone, where previous resistance and supply are present.
Currently, price is consolidating in a tight range, which usually signals a potential expansion move. If sellers step in from the sell zone, we may see a pullback toward the buyer zone, which aligns with previous demand and breakout structure.
🔻 Sell Scenario:
Rejection from sell zone → downside move toward 4,910 – 4,875 buyer area
🔺 Buy Scenario:
Strong breakout & hold above the range → continuation toward new highs
⚠️ Wait for confirmation (rejection / breakout) before entering.
Always use proper risk management.
GOLD DAILY CHART LONG RANGE ROUTE MAPHey everyone,
Please see our Daily chart route map and trade idea with the updated axis levels above and a new Goldturn channel.
We currently have a long range gap at 5030 axis. A break above this level will open 5198 AXIS level.
If instead we see a rejection at this level, this would open 4794 inline with the channel half line where we expect a reaction. A further close below 4794 would open 4586, which is a stronger level of structure support level aligning with the channel floor.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops from rejections, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
We’ve just released our new Monthly Chart idea, which we’ll now be tracking following the completion of our previous long term monthly chart idea. It’s time to shift focus to the next big setup.
Currently, price is trading above the channel midline, and we’ve also seen a candle body close above 4000 for November month opening a long range gap to 4436 AXIS.
EMA5 cross and lock would further confirm this but its lagging on the longer time frame and therefore not enough time to action if waiting for ema5 confirmation. A candle body close is suffice for us to use to track the levels on this timeframe when EMA5 lags behind.
While the candle body close above 4000 confirms the bullish long term structure, we’re also mindful of the potential for a short term retracement, particularly around the EMA5 detachment zone (highlighted with a circle on the chart). This would offer a healthy dip opportunity, aligning perfectly with our strategy to buy into weakness on the way up.
For the bigger structure to remain intact, we’ll be looking for 4000 to continue holding as key primary structural support. As long as that level is respected, the long term gap toward 4436 remains firmly in play. 3532 remains our secondary structural support, also our swing range inline with the channel half line, providing a long term pivotal structural level of support.
This is a higher timeframe idea that we’ll be building on as structure continues to unfold.
We will continue to use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gaps above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Silver Target Within a Parallel TrendCan silver extend its rally into 2026? How should investors manage the increase in volatility as silver margins rise?
As long as the US dollar remains in a downtrend, precious metals are likely to continue their bullish trend.
Video version:
Mirco Silver Futures
Ticker: SIL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 61.310.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 58.740.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
XAUUSD (Gold) – 30M Resistance Rejection SetupPrice is respecting the ascending trendline but facing strong supply at the resistance zone, suggesting a possible pullback toward lower support before the next move.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4880 – 4900
First Support / Target: 4765 – 4785
Major Support / Target: 4680 – 4700
Bullish structure remains valid above the trendline, however rejection at resistance may lead to a short-term retracement. Wait for confirmation and manage risk.
XAUUSD Weekly Plan: Liquidity Rotation Before the Next BreakoutOANDA:XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Plan | H4 structure holding above key demand
Gold remains in a dominant bullish cycle after a series of strong upside displacements and multiple BOS confirmations on H4. Price has already transitioned out of consolidation and repriced aggressively higher, signaling clear institutional participation.
This week, gold volatility is being driven by fresh macro developments: renewed uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy direction, persistent geopolitical tensions, and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets. Recent commentary surrounding future Fed leadership and rate expectations has kept the USD sensitive, supporting gold at elevated levels.
However, Smart Money logic suggests caution. Despite the bullish narrative, price is now operating near premium highs where liquidity is typically exchanged — not where institutions aggressively add longs. The current behavior points toward distribution and controlled rotation rather than impulsive continuation.
Market Structure & Liquidity Context
• Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows intact.
• The impulsive expansion from the prior base created a clear BOS and strong bullish leg.
• Momentum has started to slow near premium, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
• A visible sell-side liquidity pool rests below, aligned with prior demand and imbalance.
• Price is transitioning from expansion into a corrective or range-bound phase to rebalance positions.
➡ Fundamentals may set the theme, but liquidity defines the path.
Key Trading Scenarios
🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Primary Scenario)
Zone: 4,985 – 5,000
This area aligns with:
• External buy-side liquidity
• Psychological round-number resistance
• Prior structural highs and premium pricing
Weak acceptance or rejection from this zone suggests liquidity has been delivered, opening the door for a corrective pullback toward value.
🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Secondary Scenario)
Zone: 4,770 – 4,755
• Sell-side liquidity pool
• Previous strong support and accumulation
• Ideal area for Smart Money re-entry after mitigation
Long setups are valid only after clear bullish confirmation.
Invalidation
• Strong H4 acceptance and sustained hold above 5,020 would invalidate the pullback thesis and favor continuation toward higher projected targets.
Expectation & Bias
This is not a chase-the-breakout environment.
• Liquidity comes before direction
• Acceptance confirms continuation
• Rejection favors rotation
• Execution matters more than narrative
💬 Do you see gold accepting above 5,000 this week, or rotating back to discount for rebalancing first?
LUN (Canada) - Copper Giant Resetting After A Solid RunLundin Mining has been a powerhouse lately, up roughly 270% since the lows in 2025. Based in Vancouver, this diversified miner produces copper, zinc, gold, and nickel from operations across the globe.
Fundamentally, on Jan 21st 2026 the company just released strong 2025 results, beating their original copper guidance with a record Q4 at their Caserones mine. However, the recent 13% drop seems to be a reaction to their 2026 outlook. While overall production is stable, they flagged lower mining rates at Candelaria for the first half of the year as they bring a mining contract in-house. The market likely used this "softer" start to 2026 as an excuse to take profits after such a massive run. The long-term story remains intact, with production expected to ramp back up in 2027.
Technically, the pullback has been orderly. The stock dropped to the 20-day SMA which has been providing support throughout the run and which is often where institutional support often steps in during strong trends like this one. The RSI has reset from overbought territory but is turning back up, and the price action inside the highlighted circle shows buyers are starting to absorb the selling pressure. Yesterday (Jan 24, 2026) Haywood Securities also raised their price target to $42 from $32 which shows confidence is still there.
Might be worth a watch if it can hold these levels.
..................................................
PLEASE NOTE: Nothing I post is trading advice. All investing involves risk, and past performance doesn’t predict future results. Trends can and do end. For 2026 , my goal is to try and post one new asset each day. Something outside the usual gold, silver, BTC, or big tech names. I like to find stocks worldwide showing steady trends with some good gains, a recent pullback, and signs of renewed strength. I don’t necessarily hold positions in these. They are simply companies I find interesting at the time of posting. I’ll often revisit them within a week to see how they went and share any updates. If you enjoy these posts, please BOOST and FOLLOW ME to discover more under-the-radar stocks and businesses from around the world. ..................................................
GOLD (XAUUSD): 5000 Level Soon
Gold closed in a very strong bullish mood, breaking an intraday
horizontal resistance zone.
There is a high probability, that the market will reach 5000 psychological
level soon after the market opening.
As 5000 level is a very critical structure, traps and manipulations
will likely occur after its test. I will monitor a price action and will
provide an update shortly then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
METC | Coal Making Moves In The Energy Space | LONGRamaco Resources, Inc. engages in the operation and development of coal mining properties. The firm deals with metallurgical coal in central and southern West Virginia, southwestern Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. Its portfolio consists of Elk Creek, Berwind, RAM Mine, and Knox Creek. The company was founded by Randall W. Atkins in August 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, KY.
Copper – Targets for the Year: 15,760 > 16,600 – 16,800 > 14,800Good day, friends. Today we will try to analyze the current situation in the copper market for this year and identify key targets for the year. Let's start with the news that had the biggest impact:
🔴 Codelco — El Teniente: Tunnel Collapse (July 2025) A tragedy at the world's largest underground copper mine, caused by seismic activity triggered by mining operations. Current Situation:
Partial resumption — 8 underground sectors deemed safe are operational, running at ~75% capacity
Production Losses in 2025: 48,000 tonnes of copper
❌ Exact recovery date not announced. Forecast — no earlier than late 2026.
Codelco — A Chilean state-owned company and the world's largest copper producer. Operates legendary deposits: • El Teniente — the world's largest underground copper mine • Chuquicamata — one of the largest open-pit mines • Radomiro Tomic — high-grade ore Codelco faces challenges: aging assets, declining copper ore grades, and the need for large-scale investments in modernization.
🔴 Freeport-McMoRan — Grasberg: Landslide and Force Majeure (September 2025) A serious incident at one of the world's largest copper mines Force majeure declared on deliveries
Recovery Plan: • Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines (unaffected) restarted in Q4 2025 • Main mine Grasberg Block Cave — phased restart from Q2 2026 Phase 1 - Q2 2026 - Beginning of phased restart of Grasberg Block Cave Phase 2 - H2 2026 - Reaching 85% capacity Full Recovery - 2027 - 100% capacity
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) An American company with the world's most profitable copper mine — Grasberg in Indonesia. Key facts:
• Grasberg is also one of the largest gold deposits (gold bulls send their regards) • Largest copper producer in the USA (Morenci mine in Arizona) • Actively developing underground mining at Grasberg
🔴 DR Congo — Copper Mine Collapse (November 2025) This is not a major corporate mine, but the incident highlights the risks of mining in the region. • African Copper Belt — DR Congo and Zambia are attracting major investments
✅ Kamoa-Kakula — Smelter Launch (November 2025) This is the biggest event in the industry. Estimated Smelter Capacity - 500,000 tonnes/year (direct-to-blister) Product - Copper anodes (first melt completed) Production in 2025: 388,838 tonnes of copper in concentrate Forecast for 2026: Sales 20,000 tonnes above production (inventory realization)
p.s. There is no incentive to sell inventory now; better to wait for price growth and sell in Q2 2026 for higher margins.
Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining launched their own 500,000 tonnes/year smelter directly on-site in DR Congo. This allows production of high-purity copper anodes instead of exporting concentrates, significantly increasing margins.
🟡 Escondida and Zaldivar — Strike (January 2026) The world's largest copper mine is experiencing disruptions. Protesters are blocking access roads to the mines. Blockades affect access to Escondida (BHP) and Zaldivar in the La Negra industrial sector, Chile.
📈 Factors Supporting DEMAND
China — Massive investments in renewable energy Target by 2035 - 3,600 GW of solar and wind capacity (new commitment) State Grid Investments - 89 billion USD planned for 2025 — a record level Each GW of solar capacity requires ~2,500-5,000 tonnes of copper . Grid expansion and energy storage require even more. This creates sustainable long-term demand.
USA — Tariff Policy (Section 232) November 1, 2025 - 25% tariff imposed on imports of medium and heavy trucks and parts November 14, 2025 - Framework agreement announced with Switzerland and Liechtenstein (rate reduction) November-December 2025
Impact on copper Tariff uncertainty stimulated frontloading by American importers, temporarily boosting demand.
Electric Vehicles — Continued Growth In 2025, over 18.5 million electric vehicles were sold globally, accounting for ~25% of new sales. Each EV contains 80-100 kg of copper (4 times more than ICE vehicles).
Summary November 2025 became a turning point for the copper market: The combination of factors — China's massive investments in renewable energy, US tariff policy, and multiple disruptions at the world's largest mines — created a powerful bullish impulse that supported prices above 13,000 USD/tonne. Particularly significant is that the three largest producers (El Teniente, Grasberg, Escondida) simultaneously faced problems, which is a rare coincidence that amplified the supply deficit.
Now for the technical analysis. In this forecast, we use Fibonacci extension zones for price and time, projecting onto the industry information and expected events we've gathered. The overall trend is bullish. I assume that the current uncertainty with strikes will last up to 2 months, and we will observe sideways movement for some time while buyers accumulate positions and replenish inventories for subsequent resale, amid growing demand and increasing deficit due to accidents at major facilities.
Next — growing demand (including the new Kamoa-Kakula smelter) will push the price toward 15,760 – 15,800 (which we should reach by May).
Then — relative price stabilization in the range of 15,780 – 16,600 Likely price breakout ~ 16,800
After which , amid news of the restart of Grasberg Block Cave and other damaged mines, as well as news of increased copper production in DR Congo , buyers will take profits , leading to a phased price correction .
As copper production in DR Congo continues to grow:
2025 - ~3,210 thousand tonnes | +0.3%
2026 (forecast) - ~3,404 thousand tonnes | +6%
First correction target: ~ 14,800
Second target: ~ 13 200
What do you think?
With Respect to Everyone, Your #SinnSeed
YALLA XAUMO — Weekly Comprehensive Map (HTF → LTF Execution) | 2
YALLA XAUMO — Weekly Comprehensive Map (HTF → LTF Execution) | 26–30 Jan 2026
Educational only — not financial advice — not trade signals.
0) SNAPSHOT (from your watchlist)
- Spot (XAUUSD): 4,982.37 | GC1: 4,979.70 | GC2: 5,017.00
- Term Spread (GC2–GC1): +0.75% → CONTANGO | Spot–GC1: +2.67
- Cross-asset state (tactical meaning): DXY down + yields down = supportive backdrop, BUT VIX up = wider wicks/sweeps risk.
GC1/GC2 QUICK EXPLAINER (retail-simple)
- Contango = GC2 > GC1 (normal carry curve). Not bearish by itself.
- Backwardation = GC2 < GC1 (urgent spot demand / stress).
- Term spread % = curve steepness. Use as context, not a trigger.
1) WEEKLY THESIS (THE ONE-MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION)
This week is about ACCEPTANCE vs REJECTION at the distribution shelf.
- If price can ACCEPT above the upper shelf, it becomes an “extension week” (100%/110% targets can print).
- If price FAILS acceptance and keeps rotating around VWAP/value, it becomes a “distribution/mean-reversion week” (POC/VWAP magnets dominate).
The difference is NOT direction — it’s whether the market can HOLD business above the shelf.
2) HTF MAP (WHERE REAL MONEY CARES)
EXECUTION FAIR-PRICE (the “truth line”):
- 4H VWAP shelf: ~4,979.7
Rule: Above + holds = dips are allowed. Below + holds = rallies are sellable.
UPPER DISTRIBUTION / SUPPLY (where traps happen):
- 4,988.5–5,000.0 = primary distribution shelf
- 5,015.1 = 100% continuation gate (reclaim + accept flips regime to extension)
RELOAD / MEAN REVERSION LADDER (where buyers must prove):
- 38% reload: 4,976.4–4,976.9 (best “first dip” if trend is healthy)
- Low pocket magnet: 4,972.5–4,969.5 (liquidity pocket — watch sweep/reclaim)
- Structure marker: 4,961.6 (if accepted below, week shifts to repair)
- 62% reload: 4,946.8 (institutional reload zone if thesis still valid)
- 50% weekly reset magnet: 4,925.8 (deep reset / value reprice)
3) AUCTION LOGIC (POC/VAL/VAH/VWAP — HOW THE WEEK SHOULD TRADE)
- Above VAH + acceptance: premium auction → continuation attempts valid.
- Back inside value after breakout: failed auction → mean reversion to POC/VWAP is default.
- Below VAL + acceptance: repair week → deeper magnets become probable.
Practical read:
- If price repeatedly revisits VWAP after every push: not trending (distribution week).
- If price holds above VAH and stops revisiting VWAP/POC: trending (extension week).
4) ICHIMOKU REGIME FILTER (HTF DECIDES, LTF EXECUTES)
- Trend-up regime: above cloud + TK aligned + Chikou clean → buy retests at shelves (VWAP/38/50).
- Range/repair regime: inside cloud / flat Kijun / Chikou tangled → fade shelves, pay TPq faster.
- Trend-down regime: below cloud + Kijun ceiling + Chikou below → sell rallies, no dip buys without reclaim/acceptance.
5) FIB-KICKER (WEEKLY-GRADE RULES)
Anchoring rule:
- Anchor fib from the FIRST MegaBar in a same-direction sequence; continuation MegaBars do NOT reset the anchor.
How to use the ladder:
- 0% (reclaim line) = permission to continue.
- 38/50/62 = reload gates (trend stays alive only if these hold on retest).
- 100/110 = continuation gates (tap is meaningless; need acceptance).
- 125/R2 = late extension caps (stop chasing; demand proof or fade).
6) EXECUTION PLAYBOOK (CALIBRATED MTF ENTRY)
Your highest-quality entries next week will come from ONE of these two models:
MODEL A — CONTINUATION (reclaim/accept)
- Condition: 15m/1H closes above 4,988.5–5,000 AND holds.
- Trigger: retest that shelf + bullish reclaim candle.
- Targets: 5,015.1 → 5,033–5,037 (extension caps above that)
MODEL B — MEAN REVERSION (distribution fade)
- Condition: sweep above 5,000 then failure back under 4,988.5 OR acceptance under VWAP.
- Trigger: retest failure candle + lower-high confirmation.
- Magnets: ~4,979.7 → 4,972–4,969 → 4,961.6 → 4,946.8 (if repair)
Risk protocol (XAUMO standard):
- SL1 (mitigated) = just beyond the shelf failure.
- SL2 (tailgate) = beyond the structure pocket that invalidates thesis.
- TPq first, especially if VWAP keeps getting revisited.
7) WEEKLY STUDY SCENARIOS (EDUCATIONAL EXAMPLES — NOT SIGNALS)
A) Extension week (needs acceptance)
- Hold above 4,988.5–5,000 + retest → 5,015.1 then 5,033–5,037.
B) Distribution week (failed auction)
- Fail above 5,000 and rotate back below 4,988.5 → ~4,979.7 then 4,972–4,969 then 4,961.6.
C) Dip-reload week (healthy pullback)
- Dip to 4,976–4,969 then reclaim VWAP → back to 4,988.5 then 5,000.
D) Repair week (deeper repricing)
- Acceptance below 4,961.6 → 4,946.8 then 4,925.8 magnets.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #XAUMO #VWAP #Ichimoku #Fibonacci #VolumeProfile #PriceAction
CVX: mid-term and macro trend structure Breakout attempt from a multi-year flat base.
On a macro scale, structure suggests unfinished upside from 2020 lows (which aligns well with the 70s bottom). If the base resolves higher, there’s meaningful runway left.
Macro (Monthly):
Key zone to watch short/mid-term: 168–175. That resistance could trigger several weeks of consolidation before any sustainable multi-month breakout.
If cleared and held, upside roadmap opens toward 210 → 230–250, with 300 as an ultimate extension level.
Weekly:
Alternatively, price may have completed the first impulsive leg from the Apr ’25 bottom and could now require more time and potentially a deeper pullback before continuation.
A retracement into the 152–140 support zone would be the area for a reset and base formation prior to the next sustained upside attempt.
Chart:
That scenario would still keep the broader breakout thesis intact, just with a more prolonged consolidation phase first.
Crude Oil’s Breakout: What It Means for Risk AssetsThis isn’t a trade setup or a recommendation to go long oil. It’s a case study: what a confirmed crude oil breakout can mean next for risk assets like stocks, crypto, and other commodities.
Oil may be setting up as one of the most important trades of 2026, with implications far beyond the energy sector.
1. The technical setup on crude oil 🛢️
Crude oil has broken out of a major wedge and successfully retested that breakout.
Key technical points:
- A downward trendline connecting the July 2025 and September 2025 highs has been broken to the upside on CL futures.
- After breaking out, price pulled back to retest the trendline from above, then bounced confirmation that old resistance has turned into support.
- Structurally, oil is coming out of a wedge pattern: wide volatile swings that slowly compress, then resolve in a directional break. This pattern often precedes a strong move once energy is “stored up” in the range.
2. Takeaways for traders and investors
- Crude oil is technically in a bullish breakout structure with a clear invalidation level near 55 USD and reasonable upside into the high‑70s/80 area, with stretch potential beyond if macro and supply shocks align.
- Fundamentals: inflation adjustment, producer cost structures, and slow‑moving supply stories like Venezuela support the idea that very low prices are hard to sustain. [
- Institutional rotation means capital may start flowing out of over‑extended trades (gold, silver, perhaps AI/tech) and into energy, with narratives shifting only after positioning.
- For risk assets, a meaningful oil rally could:
- Pressure inflation expectations and rate‑cut hopes,
- Hurt long‑duration growth stocks and some parts of crypto,
- Benefit energy and other real‑asset plays.
If you follow risk assets, watching crude oil’s chart and where it trades relative to that 55 USD and the high‑70s/80 target zone can give you early clues about coming shifts in inflation fears, sector rotation, and overall risk appetite.
CRUDE OIL Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL strong bullish breakout from a well-defined demand zone confirms buy-side control. Structure holds higher highs and higher lows, favoring continued upside expansion toward external liquidity. Time Frame 2H.
Buy!
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