Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base).
Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision.
COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases.
Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal.
Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead.
🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation.
Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth).
A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
