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GOLD Price monthly K.I.S.S I love K.I.S.S charts (keep it simple stupid). Why? Because they help clear all the mud out of a chart and the over analysis. Analysis is great and I love it when it comes to charts and technical analysis. However, too much analysis is sometimes too confusing and cloudy. Ultimately we want clarity as much as possible. For me clarity comes from the long term chart time frames a strong respect for price and tape action behavior predictors and then sometimes forward looking events . Lets get the forward looking event out of the way first. USA election 2016 in November. From my point of view there is zero doubt that this election is going to mark a dramatic shift in policy and decision making for the USA. I hate to get into politics discussion but for me this is going to be a key driver and potential turning point for markets/economy and sentiment at least as far as the USA is concerned. And many times what the USA does sort of takes the rest of the world down the rabbit hole too. So having said that, now we confront the current bullish stance of the USA dollar index. On the weekly and daily time frames the US dollar index appears to be in large cup and handle formation ready to break out north of typical 100 resistance. This also resembles a high tight flag with the previous vertical leg about 9 trading months. If we project a typical A B C follow move that continues in time symmetry then we can project that the next major leg duration of the US Dollar index is likely to be about 9 months. I have no idea if we will get the full 9 month rally again or if it will be just 6 months. Or perhaps it will be 11 months right into the election. Either way, it makes sense for the dollar to turn near the election as new policies and chaos from Washington confronts the markets. The inverse of the dollar is gold. Gold is weak obviously. It looks like gold wants to dive down to near long term trendline support between 875 and 900. Of course it does not have to touch this up trendline. It could reverse before it. Perhaps this depends on how cumbersome (or not) the us dollar move north is. I suspect that the gold price will make some type of inverse head and shoulders pattern to cement the bottom. The alternative is a V shaped spike bottom as in the 1975 case, however this looks less likely to me as now there are many more stakeholders in these markets. So the bottom line is that gold is looking like it wants to find a FINAL low in 2016 ideally towards the mid to 3/4 point of 2016 . This would present an opportune time to keep powder dry and build more powder for the so called 'buy of a lifetime'. If you like this chart please hit the like button (thumbs up) in the top left corner of the chart !!!

DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSI As pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more significant, in my view, is the divergence between the recent DJIA' price movement and the Relative Strength Index. It should be pointed out that the longer a divergence persists, the stronger its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. Having lasted for more than two years, the current discrepancy has persisted significantly longer than the divergence in 2007, which remained for about half a year, before indices fell by about 50%.

DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSI As pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. See the following chart for the parallels between 2000, 2007 and now, as previously posted: A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more signficant, in my view, is the divergence between DJIA's price movement and the RSI, which is apparent since early 2013. It is worthwhile to point out that the longer such a divergence lasts, the stronger is its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. With the current divergence between price and RSI having started more than two years ago, this is substantially longer than the roughly half year discrepancy we experienced in 2007, before prices corrected about 50%.

Bitcoin Price v. Shanghai Index Nice to meet you, Though I observed here for a while, it is my first post. In 2014 autumn, one member posted comparison between Shanghai Index and Bitcoin price. (See Link) At that time, the author suggested that, Chinese investors will be less attracted to bitcoin because they have more profitable market, or Chinese Stock Market. According to recent data, it seems to be right forecast at least until mid of April, when Chinese Stock Market has been totally bullish while bitcoin bearish. However, from late April, trend slightly has changed; growth of the stock slowed and even reversed for a week, and bitcoin price escaped local low of 1320 CNY and now heading 1550 CNY. If Chinese investors find that the stock is distinctly less profitable, I believe that modest bounce of bitcoin price to ~1700 CNY until late May is not only possible, but also plausible. Yet, impact of slowed stock market growth will be limited, for usual investor prefer gold and other 'safe' asset.

The comparative strength or weakness of Gold vs. US Dollar In this study, I'm looking at the performance of gold, in terms of percentage gains/loss compared to the performance of the US dollar, tracked by the dollar index (DXY). As gold moves inversely with the US dollar, I inversed the DXY to set a comparative benchmark, hence 1/DXY. Please see notes on chart.

The all-important 38.2% level and what breaking it means.Several weeks ago, I posted () a unique comparison of Bitcoin bubbles and how even though the sizes are so much different, they follow the same pattern for the aftershocks and the retracements. As I'm sure everyone has noticed, we are on the verge of another bubble now, and I personally think that the breaking of this $680 level (and accompanying 38.2%) will be the confirmation we need. What I have added this time, in addition to cleaning up my work, is several indicators on the bottom. In the past, they have "bounced" off of a higher level that the main crash of that cycle did, and this time around this same "bounce" is rearing it's head yet again. If we break $680, that will be a very good confirmation for the coming weeks. I simplified this chart to try and make the picture I'm trying to paint a little bit clearer, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask! _____________________________________________ On a side note, my prediction from here seems to be coming true: (www.reddit.com) >Additionally, as the liquidity increases in the markets and the economy grows, I think the "bubble pattern" will break it's 235 day cycle and start slowing down, along with volatility slowly decreasing over time. We see this in my >chart with the time spans on the bottom. This is why the current phase seems to be "behind schedule" to many, but I'm not worried. As long as we continue the next few weeks with a solid launch platform, we will still be in >excellent conditions for a bubble launch. I have been expecting this bubble cycle to take considerably longer than the "235 day" window everyone was expecting back then, and by now it looks like that is set in stone. There simply is too much ground to cover and not enough things are falling into place. I started to suspect this was the case back when we took so long to exit the bearish trendline back at $450 because all of the things (X,Y,Z) that had to happen were starting to get more and more compressed. On the other hand, on the larger cycle picture, things seem to be right on track. So sit back and enjoy folks! (oh, and I'm still buying Litecoin as based on my previous predictions too! Dat flash crash)