lowstrife
Long

The all-important 38.2% level and what breaking it means.

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Several weeks ago, I posted (http://www.tradingview.com/v/ozwXpYBi/) a unique comparison of Bitcoin bubbles and how even though the sizes are so much different, they follow the same pattern for the aftershocks and the retracements. As I'm sure everyone has noticed, we are on the verge of another bubble now, and I personally think that the breaking of this $680 level (and accompanying 38.2%) will be the confirmation we need.

What I have added this time, in addition to cleaning up my work, is several indicators on the bottom. In the past, they have "bounced" off of a higher level that the main crash of that cycle did, and this time around this same "bounce" is rearing it's head yet again. If we break $680, that will be a very good confirmation for the coming weeks.

I simplified this chart to try and make the picture I'm trying to paint a little bit clearer, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask!

_____________________________________________

On a side note, my prediction from here seems to be coming true: (http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2731ow/daily_discussion_monday_june_02_2014/chwxey1)

>Additionally, as the liquidity increases in the markets and the economy grows, I think the "bubble pattern" will break it's 235 day cycle and start slowing down, along with volatility slowly decreasing over time. We see this in my >chart with the time spans on the bottom. This is why the current phase seems to be "behind schedule" to many, but I'm not worried. As long as we continue the next few weeks with a solid launch platform, we will still be in >excellent conditions for a bubble launch.

I have been expecting this bubble cycle to take considerably longer than the "235 day" window everyone was expecting back then, and by now it looks like that is set in stone. There simply is too much ground to cover and not enough things are falling into place. I started to suspect this was the case back when we took so long to exit the bearish trendline back at $450 because all of the things (X,Y,Z) that had to happen were starting to get more and more compressed.

On the other hand, on the larger cycle picture, things seem to be right on track. So sit back and enjoy folks!

(oh, and I'm still buying Litecoin as based on my previous predictions too! Dat flash crash)
IncreaseMyT
2 years ago
Dat flash crash was cray. Great chart thanks!
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BitWave PRO
2 years ago
Not good time to buy LTC, just wait for BTC ATH
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MrJonMak
2 years ago
Thank you for the informative charts lowstrife. I've been watching these cycles very closely as well. I agree that technically speaking the setup looks positive for both bitcoin and litecoin but we must remember the fundamentals which drives the market. The last was China quickly flooding into the market but the government soon put a stop to that. This time around it'll be bitcoin ATMs and so called institutional investors which will drive the 3rd wave. The problem I'm seeing are low volumes compared to last the cycle. The volume MA needs to rise otherwise we could be seeing a cyclical "bear trap" in this mega bull run.
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chrisBTC
2 years ago
looks good
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