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Confluence

USDCAD Trade #46Personally, I am not in this trade. USDCAD looks like it is in a monthly range which is probably the best way to learn how to trade. If weekly/monthly trendline breaks and demand dries up it's safe to say bears may take prices down to 1.06 or lower (from a technical point of view). Look for the negative correlation between oil and the Canadian dollar. I would plot on the daily/weekly. Very rarely I look at the monthly but so far everything looks clean (Daily<-Weekly<-Monthly) in that order. If you take the Fibonacci tool and go from prices 1.44 to 0.93 looks like the 0.50% is confluent with weekly demand.
by Mr.Pip
4
BTC Update - what's going on? Confluence appears...The latest "bull" move seems to have topped out at a nice confluence. Hindsight is 2020.... too. 2022... Confluence: - 1.618 extension off the low. - 382 retracement of the bear move from 69k to 32k - 12 Week EMA - What about the 200 day MA? I'm starting to feel bull, but we'll need to see this retrace with a proper bounce. Lots of indicators suggest an uptrend regardless if it is bull or a dead cat bounce. If we're lucky we'll retrace the bear move to 786 and get some nice bear entries after enjoying a nice bull rally. My count remains topped out at 69k, while some suggest 100k. I'm willing to compromise at 75k based on some previous analysis but not 100k... let's see! :)
by Shadowfigure
$PSX going short - high confluence, good r:r setupfundamentals: bang average. decent for short. sector: XLE sector at resistance and overbought - good to short - matches $PSX sentiment thesis: wedge playing the bounce from resistance convergence spot down to support buy confluences: horizontal resistance zone (very key level back to 2015), resistance trendline, wedge pattern continuation, no volume above, POC below, 200ma below (in middle of wedge which shows consolidation and validates wedge thesis), rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both above the minimum support line), rsi and vortex bearish divergence (shows slowdown in bullish momentum), XLE sector over extended and easy short stop confluences: breaks key level resistance value zone, breaks resistance trendline, breaks relevant noise wicks rsi and vortex will be very over extended, invalidates thesis because breaks key resistance level and also breaks the wedge thesis risk/reward: risk 1.6%, make 6.4% conservatively 1:4 but will let run by not taking profits, but moving stop up trading plan- stop: $90.60 tp: $83.41 validation strategy: move trailing up quick when in profit to secure gains but also give breathing room below key support, then let run with trailing and keep moving it up, take profits at TP if market's choppy and happy with profits, if not manual stop below and let winner run.
NYSE:PSXShort
by Hug0rr
$CIVI going short - high confluence, good r:r setupfundamentals: decent fundamentals for a short sector: XLE at key level (resistance) and already overbought, good short thesis: horizontal resistance play playing the bounce back down to support buy confluences: horizontal resistance, no volume above, resistance trendline, poc below, 200MA below, rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both of them well above the minimum support line they need to be to bounce), rsi bearish divergence, XLE sector over extended and at resistance - easy short stop confuences: breaks horizontal resistance zone, breaks all relevant noise wicks, breaks resistance trendline, rsi and vortex will be hugely over extended, will have broken to aths (invalidates my thesis) risk/reward: risk 1.5%, make 6.9% 1:4.5 conservatively - lovely R R - low risk, decent reward and can run much higher to 12%+ normally trading plan- stop: $59.67 tp: $54.73 validation strategy: maybe take profits at TP if happy and market's choppy, if not let it ride with manual trailing which placed as in profit, below key support as high as it wants - let winners run!
NYSE:CIVIShort
by Hug0rr
UPDATE 2.0 - GBPCHF - CONT or BREAK-OUT Good Evening people… The new Trading week is upon us and with this I would like to revisit the Technical Analysis of the GBPCHF The initial post was 10 days ago and the market had progressed slightly towards our target zone for a potential trade set-up [For the initial Technical Analysis follow the link below ] Moving on to the progression of the chart and further Technical Analysis  Previously, Top-Down Analysis of the Monthly & Weekly were provided. Both timeframes remain pretty much identical - Other than the previously identified Pin-Bar  Now, I did predict that this particular Pin-Bar may just return to the 1.235 Support , which is also a 61 FIB zone for the previous Low [ 1.299 ] With, the Pin-Bar being the a new Higher-High in theory Furthermore, I did mention that Price would bounce off this level - And, It did precisely that! Additionally, This bounce closed back above a newly marked out Horizontal S&R Which brings us to the Daily TF… On the Daily - We can see that our previously marked out Descending Channel is still intact Furthermore, you can see the additional Horizontal S&R I marked out This has been closing out on a daily basis at the back end of last week Moving Down to the H4 … We can see that the market did Break-Out of the Support of the previously marked out Ascending Channel Following this Break-Out - Price bounced off the 1.235 Support and has been in a strong trend for the majority of last week This being our originally predicted zone of Confluence  and target for potential trade set-ups As I previously mentioned - This is an abundance of Confluence Being a meeting of the  H4 Ascending Channel Support Resistance of the Daily Descending Channel and Horizontal Resistance  [ Beautiful, right? ]  With this in mind, I am still looking for the following… At this  1.2599 Confluence - A Break-out  with a Daily Close before any long positions can be considered  Alternatively, any type of  Bearish Price Action CS or simply rejections would have to be considered as  Shorts  Also, I will be monitoring both the H4 and Daily TFs - As, they both currently seem to be respected at the levels on these TFs [ I am expecting this to alter though ] Although, on the H4 - After the Break-Out , Price reached the Support within 10 sessions But, has taken considerably more and still moving to reach the new Resistance of the Ascending Channel This personally being a chart pattern that is preferred to a similar period of sessions for returning to the new S&R after a Break-Out Finally, We do have a Monthly close upon us this week - Such a close my provide us with further clues as to the future movement of the market If anyone is following the original GBPCHF Technical Analysis - I hope this has provided an alternative insight to the chart Thanks for tuning in people & Stay Cool!
by fxhole_
UPDATE 3.0 - GBPCHF - CONT or BREAK-OUT UPDATE 3.0 GBPCHF Hope everyone has a good weekend... Today, I will be kicking off with a revisit to the GBPCHF As you guys may be aware - I have previously provided Technical Analysis for this currency and have been watching for the best part of the last 3 weeks You can find the previous analysis at both the links below… ... So, within the previous analysis - I discussed how the market was progressing upwards 
Furthermore, the Descending Channel that I originally marked out on the Daily TF is still intact And, with Price still pushing up to the Resistance Additionally and on the H4 - I marked out and Ascending Channel with a Break-Out to the downside And, over the trading week - The market continued to be bullish and retest the support of this channel. Although, after testing this support - Price did fall slightly and pushed up again for a further test. For me personally it was not at the confluence I was looking for to short the market Following this, a further Ascending channel was identified This providing similar confluence at the previously identified level of 1.252
 So and again people - We are looking for the reaction at the 1.252 level of confluence. Currently, I am on the side of sells - but, who knows, right? Any for of Price Action in. for the a CS would be sells Alternatively, a close above the 1.252 resistance zone I would consider Buys As always - thanks for tuning in people Keep it real!
by fxhole_
330 pips bagged and I called the swing right here on tradingviewI made it clear when I sent out this signal that if you're taking this trade, that you should hold with a swing mindset and 330 pips later, boom 💥 !... With a 20 pips stop loss from 1.11200, we bought and held till price hit 1.14500...the data is all here !. Divergence at the end of a trend cannot fail you when you know how to trade it, especially when italigns with your other confluences and then the smart money concept of order blocks and break of market structure and the likes. Go ahead and view my profile here, you will find out that 98% of my ideas here are all divergent trades !.
by LaBOSS_FX
2
LUNA offers 60% upside and 50% downsideHear me out. LUNA is at an inflection point and with the crypto market not showing any signs of strength right now, it's hard to be a bull. One must be open to 2 opposing scenarios and have a plan for both directions. The Bull case: - LUNA is holding its 200 day MA. - We have a nice 5 wave pattern on the downside. - We've made a 786 retracement (and more) off the move from $35 to the ATH. - Upcoming MACD crossover on the Daily - RSI oversold on the Daily - Willy oversold on the Daily - Even if you are a Bear (I am a Bear), a relief rally based on pure technicals is most likely. The Bear case: - BTC has room for downside - it can still go as low as 20k support which many are calling for. - LUNA has had FUD news as of late (I tend to be a chart purist but you can't ignore this one) - there are some major concerns around the staking and returns for LUNA / TERRA in the down market. This could lead to a panic selloff. - We haven't quite touched the 618 retracement, and the chart leaves much room to what would be a major support level around $22. - The 786 retracement lines up with the $22 range noted. - The 1.618 extension of the bear move from the top lines up on top of that 786 retracement. One cannot ignore confluence. My hypothesis: - We have a chance to rally to $90, before correcting all the way to $22. Be very careful out there!! What am I doing?: - I've entered a LUNA long, which I already sold and made profit on, and I'm currently filling up another LUNA long. STOP IS TIGHT! Just under the recent low below $46.50. I am trading on margin so cannot afford to put my stop below the low of $43. That's just personal discretion and being willing to re assess if I should re-enter if the stop hits. Taking profits earlier helps me a lot if a stop hits to minimize or even eliminate my downside risk.
Long
by Shadowfigure
20+ pips bagged, more projected moves below.Price is likely to come all the way down to hit 1.34500/1.34400 then bullish all the way to the next psychological level @1.3550. This projected move has a very high probability of occuring so watch out. Don't buy just yet, our bearish move isn't quite complete yet because at the moment. price in H1 got stuck in the 200EMA and it's gathering volume to break that level hence the consolidation. Hopefully Jolts Job openings provide the necessary volume we need to make this analysis happen. We have another strong pattern that supports this analysis and as you can clearly see on the chart. It's our favourite pattern the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. We're waiting for our Last shoulder to form before taking those buys💯.
Long
by LaBOSS_FX
Get ready to short GBPUSDHello everyone !. This signal meets all shorting requirements except the "M" pattern that will definitely form once price hits the flipping zone which is also a confluence and price will therefore be touching the trendline for the third consecutive time. The DXY has been bearish which has been taking the price of GBPUSD to previous highs and once the news for Jolts job openings Is out, DXY will bounce back to it's monthly high and send GBPUSD and subsequent XXXUSD pairs back down. Once fundamentals come out and supports our analysis,please go all in using proper risk management but we have an incredibly bearish bias on GBPUSD. Price should head back down to it's 1.34400 region before any more major move !.
Short
by LaBOSS_FX
2