fundamentals: bang average. decent for short.
sector: XLE sector at resistance and overbought - good to short - matches $PSX sentiment
thesis: wedge playing the bounce from resistance convergence spot down to support
buy confluences: horizontal resistance zone (very key level back to 2015), resistance trendline, wedge pattern continuation, no volume above, POC below, 200ma below (in middle of wedge which shows consolidation and validates wedge thesis), rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both above the minimum support line), rsi and vortex bearish divergence (shows slowdown in bullish momentum), XLE sector over extended and easy short
stop confluences: breaks key level resistance value zone, breaks resistance trendline, breaks relevant noise wicks rsi and vortex will be very over extended, invalidates thesis because breaks key resistance level and also breaks the wedge thesis
risk/reward: risk 1.6%, make 6.4% conservatively 1:4 but will let run by not taking profits, but moving stop up
trading plan-
stop: $90.60
tp: $83.41
validation strategy: move trailing up quick when in profit to secure gains but also give breathing room below key support, then let run with trailing and keep moving it up, take profits at TP if market's choppy and happy with profits, if not manual stop below and let winner run.
sector: XLE sector at resistance and overbought - good to short - matches $PSX sentiment
thesis: wedge playing the bounce from resistance convergence spot down to support
buy confluences: horizontal resistance zone (very key level back to 2015), resistance trendline, wedge pattern continuation, no volume above, POC below, 200ma below (in middle of wedge which shows consolidation and validates wedge thesis), rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both above the minimum support line), rsi and vortex bearish divergence (shows slowdown in bullish momentum), XLE sector over extended and easy short
stop confluences: breaks key level resistance value zone, breaks resistance trendline, breaks relevant noise wicks rsi and vortex will be very over extended, invalidates thesis because breaks key resistance level and also breaks the wedge thesis
risk/reward: risk 1.6%, make 6.4% conservatively 1:4 but will let run by not taking profits, but moving stop up
trading plan-
stop: $90.60
tp: $83.41
validation strategy: move trailing up quick when in profit to secure gains but also give breathing room below key support, then let run with trailing and keep moving it up, take profits at TP if market's choppy and happy with profits, if not manual stop below and let winner run.