ZEC — Another -50% Drop AheadZEC has had one of the wildest runs this year, a +2000% explosion from August to November, all in just 80 days, before topping out at $750. Moves that go vertical like this tend to unwind just as aggressively, and ZEC did exactly that: a sharp –60% correction back into the $300 support zone.
That reaction wasn’t random, $300 was a major confluence level:
0.618 Fib retracement of the entire +2000% move
Weekly level lining up cleanly
0.786 Fib of the smaller impulsive wave
Altogether, an ideal spot for a bounce and that’s exactly what we saw. Looking at the current structure, here’s what I’d like to see next:
1. A move toward $500 → Short opportunity
$500 should now act as a psychological resistance level and would be the perfect area for a rejection.
2. A drop into the $250 region → Long opportunity
This zone is stacked with confluence:
0.702 Fib sweet-spot entry of the entire move
0.886 Fib retracement (deep retrace zone)
Weekly order block
Anchored VWAP
Monthly level
POC
This makes $250 a very attractive long-entry, with a simple target back toward $300.
Educational Insight
Parabolic moves like ZEC’s +2000% rally in such a short time almost never resolve sideways. When price accelerates this fast, the market typically needs time to rebalance value. This usually happens through deep retracements and distribution structures.
The first major retrace to the 0.618 Fib often acts as a relief bounce, which we already saw around $300. This bounce doesn’t mean the trend is healthy again it usually represents short covering and dip-buyers stepping in early. Structurally, these bounces often lead to lower highs, forming patterns like Head & Shoulders or broader distribution ranges.
Deeper retracement levels such as the 0.786 and 0.886 Fib tend to be where strong hands accumulate, especially when they align with:
Anchored VWAPs (fair value over time)
High-volume nodes (POC)
Higher-timeframe order blocks
Monthly or weekly levels
This is why the $250 zone stands out. It’s not just “another support”, it’s where multiple market participants agree on value, which increases the probability of a meaningful reaction.
On the flip side, psychological levels like $500 often attract late buyers and breakout traders during corrective rallies. When momentum fades into these areas, they frequently become ideal zones for short entries, especially if volume dries up or rejection wicks form.
Key takeaway:
Instead of chasing fast moves, focus on where value is likely to be defended or rejected. High-probability trades are built where structure, Fibonacci, volume, and VWAP all align.
In summary:
ZEC is offering two solid setups → one on the short side near $500, and one long near $250. Set alerts on both levels and wait for the reaction.
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