BRIEFING Week #45 : Growth made the TopHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Crypto
People Panic (again) as bitcoin returns to support (again)Bitcoin has been channeling up for about a year pretty consistently. The basic technical supports are still working. Price hits the weekly Bollinger band bottom, wicks through, builds structure and reverses to a new high. Price has also been bouncing off the top of the weekly gaussian channel. That's very optimistic as well.
So, these ideas main point is the "Trend is your friend until the end." What has really changed? Global liquidity is still going up. The various fiat currencies are being debased. Anti-fiat hedges like silver and gold are making all-time highs.
In a bull market you buy the dip and sell the rip. This is the dip. The rip is over 70% away at $175k. None of this means get reckless. We still have trendlines on lower time frames and lots of potential chop that can occur. There isn't a clear reversal pattern yet. BTC could make a inverted head and shoulders, a double bottom, all sorts of potential nonsense.
And lets be upfront, the channel could break down. Price could go from the top of the Gaussian channel to the bottom, etc. But so far my bias is continuation. Entries are going to be sought out on the daily and 3 day charts. Alts showed a lot of strength recently.
Others.d/bitcoin looks very bullish here at support. I expect it to chop up the next year quite well.
Others/eth has a double bottom.
Bitcoin is stabilized. Alts are basing out against bitcoin and eth. Finally. This is a great time to go long. Have a strategy. Layer a portfolio. All that stuff I can't actually advise you to do because I am not a financial advisor. I just share why I'm personally going long on crypto.
SUI remains in a shallow Fib triangleCRYPTOCAP:SUI Price remains in a downtrend, falling below a major High Volume Node support, tapping the macro triangle lower boundary.
Wave C of the triangle appears complete. If this count is correct, we should accelerate to the upper boundary around $3.6 over the next month or so, with some difficulty at the daily 200EMA and pivot as resistance.
📈 Daily RSI printed bullish divergence from oversold
👉 Continued downside loses the triangle pattern, and the next target is $1.6
Safe trading
SOL holds up wellCRYPTOCAP:SOL Price continues lower in the channel, a textbook ABC correction so far.
Wave 1 ended with a wedge throw-over. Price has found support above the Fibonacci golden pocket and High Volume Node at the channel's lower boundary. The probability is a continuation to the downside with a target of $140.
📈 Daily RSI tapped oversold with no divergence to suggest a bottom
👉 Continued downside brings up the $112 target, a great buy opportunity
Safe trading
ONDO,1 more push lowerLSE:ONDO Price is sitting just above High Volume Node support, testing the descending trend-line as resistance. As long as we are below the trend-line, the probability is to the downside.
Wave 2 appears complete after 5 waves down from the wave X flat correction. Price was front-run at the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement, but only a bounce so far. We are below the daily pivot and 200EMA, which is bearish.
📈 Daily RSI tapped oversold twice with slight bullish divergence.
👉 Continued downside has a target of the bottom of the High Volume Node at $0.5
Safe trading
HBAR back in the channel!CRYPTOCAP:HBAR Price is back in the descending range after dropping below during the flash crash, which can be viewed as an anomaly.
Wave 2 appears complete at the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement. Price was rejected at the daily 200EMA and channel upper boundary and has lost the daily pivot and High Volume Node, suggesting further downside is to come.
📈 Daily RSI reached oversold and has printed hidden bullish divergence, which is bullish
👉 Continued downside has a target of the $0.13 High Volume Node
Safe trading
FET, Pump and dump?NYSE:FET Price bounced with a one day candle of 70% recovering the High Volume Node resistance and daily pivot from the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement.
Chasing candles higher is what’s on the cards of naive investors now. Greed and FOMO immediately took over socials with much gloating. This is a recipe for lower, humbling them.
📈 Daily RSI went too high, too fast, and now has bearish divergence in a bear market, a strong signal.
👉 Continued upside has a target of the daily 200EMA and High Volume Node resistance at $0.6.
Safe trading
ETH Correction complete?CRYPTOCAP:ETH Wave 2 is taking the form of a complex WXYXZ correction broadening wedge. Ugly, hard to trade or find any entries. This will cause a lot of stress. This is also potentially a wave 4, but my preferred count is 2 for now.
Wave 2 appears complete with a swing below the boundary, but the recovery should have been stronger by now; instead, we are stalling below the daily 200EMA. The trend is down, and so we should expect more down. Wave X printed a triangle
📈 Daily RSI has not reached oversold and is still bearish with no divergences.
👉 Continued downside has a target of the High Volume Node $2600, where I will be adding.
Safe trading
DOGE More downside to come?CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Price is testing the bottom of the channel and pivot point as resistance, where it is likely to be rejected.
Wave (2) appears complete after the Friday flash crash, hitting the ‘alt-coin’ golden pocket, 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. The trend remains down, so this is the higher probability. Price needs to overcome the heavy resistance ahead before we can talk about being bullish long-term.
📈 Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence, which is bullish
👉 Continued downside has a target of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and High Volume Node $0.12
Safe trading
BTC, Correction finished?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Price continues in a shallow range, down 22% from the all-time high, but sentiment is nearing extreme fear.
This complex correction appears complete at the trend-line boundary, where I bought, but I am giving it room for one more push lower to complete 5 waves down for Y. If wave 2 ends here, wave 3 is expected to be powerful and fast.
Price is below the daily 200EMA, which will offer some resistance at a High Volume Node. For now, the trend is down, and so further downside is the higher probability.
📈 Daily RSI has not reached oversold like all the other ranges did and is still bearish with no divergences.
👉 Continued downside brings up the next High Volume Node at $92000
Safe trading
BNB Bearish continuation?CRYPTOCAP:BNB Price appears to have completed wave (1) at the R1 pivot and has retraced to the daily 200EMA, 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and S1 pivot so far. A tough nut to crack.
Wave (2) appears complete with a textbook ABC correction ending at strong support. The downtrend is intact, so the probability is still to the downside until the structure flips.
📈 Daily RSI has not reached oversold and is still bearish with no divergences
👉 Continued downside loses the 200EMA and brings up the Golden pocket as support $740
Safe trading
AAVE local analysis updated, Bear trend continueEURONEXT:AAVE Locally, price continues bearish after falling out of the wedge, completing wave 1. Until the price gets above the orange descending trend-line, the probability is downside continuation.
Wave 2 appears complete after the big drop, black swan event. I was looking for a dip back into the long lower wick, which we have and price found support. This suggests we grind higher from here, but we must get through the daily 200EMA, just above the High Volume Node resistance and daily pivot. This area will be tough to crack.
The alternative count is a triangle forming discussed below, which is the (A)(B)(C) shown.
📈 Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from the oversold threshold, which is bullish and a bottoming signal.
👉 Continued downside has a next target of $150.
Safe trading
$DXY eye a 5 point move. RISK OFF.The dollar index is reversing course.
And I believe highly likely to trigger this complex inverse head and shoulder's.
A swift move to the 105 region
lines up with a expected downside move in #BTC
A corrective move in the #PreciousMetals
and further profit taking on the #AI trade.
I believe this all could play by Xmas.
So the odds of a #SantaRally are slim given current price action that we are seeing across the board.
FIL - Momentum Shift Confirmed!📈After months of trading within a bearish descending channel, FIL has finally broken out with a strong bullish impulse, signaling a clear shift in market momentum. This breakout marks a potential end to the prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new bullish phase.
🏹From here, I’ll be looking for trend-following long setups on every healthy correction, ideally after retesting the broken structure zone. The next key target lies around the $5 round number, which also aligns with a major resistance area on the higher timeframe.
⚔️As long as FIL holds above the previous breakout zone, the bulls remain in control.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC Strong Surge: Heading Towards 110,700 USD!BTC/USDT is in the process of a strong recovery after reaching the important support level at 99,500 USD. After forming a bottom and bouncing from this level, the current trend indicates a high potential for continued growth.
The next resistance level for BTC is 110,700 USD. If the pair can break through this level and maintain above it, the price could continue its strong upward momentum, opening the opportunity to reach higher levels in the short term.
However, if it fails to hold above the 99,500 USD support, BTC may face difficulties and could pull back to lower support levels. Despite this, with the current positive technical signals, the likelihood of BTC continuing to rise in the next 24 hours is very high.
Traders should carefully monitor these support and resistance levels to formulate an appropriate trading strategy.
Might be time to dip back into OPBTC just smashed through $100K, and ETH's hovering right around $3K.
Might be time to dip back into OP—looks like the liq map shows they flushed out every last long trader.
Entry: $0.3547
Take Profit: $0.6800
Stop Loss: $0.3098
Playing it with a 1:8 RR.
If this one gets stopped out, I'll eye the next entry around $0.26 +/- straight into the spot bag. All that prime liquidity's piled up overhead.
Long SolanaTrading Fam,
Received a buy signal from my indicator on Solana the other day. Inside a nice liquidity block, above the 200/350 SMA, and inside a bullish triangle. I'll easily take this trade all day. But with the crypto market continually disappointing, I am not going to risk more than an 8% loss here. Shooting for a target of around 32% profits brings my rrr to a 1:4. Best of luck!
✌️Stew
The Last Chance to Own 4-Digit Bitcoin?💥 The Last Chance to Own 4-Digit Bitcoin?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s RSI is around 35, showing no bullish divergence and price still below the 21 EMA.
I’m personally waiting for the $60K area — it might take months… or maybe it’ll drop even lower.
Either way, this could be the last time we ever see 4-digit Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading #Investing #RSI #EMA #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis
(GBP/USD, 4-hour timeframe)..(GBP/USD, 4-hour timeframe), I have drawn two target points marked with arrows above the current price. Let’s analyze what’s on the screen:
Current Setup
Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 4-hour
Current price: around 1.3130–1.3150
Pattern: Appears to be a potential inverted head and shoulders or double bottom pattern forming.
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud (yellow shaded area), suggesting resistance near 1.3250–1.3300.
Targets drawn:
First target: near 1.3350
Second target: near 1.3500
📈 Target Levels (Based on Chart)
1. First Target (Short-term): 1.3340 – 1.3360
This matches the lower “Target Point” drawn on my chart.
It aligns with the top of the current Ichimoku cloud and previous price structure resistance.
2. Second Target (Mid-term): 1.3480 – 1.3500
The upper “Target Point” shown.
Represents the next major resistance zone.
🛠 Suggested Strategy (if my bullish)
Entry: Confirm breakout above 1.3200 with strong candles.
Take Profit 1: 1.3340
Take Profit 2: 1.3480
Stop Loss: Below 1.3050 (under recent swing low).
ETH/USD (Ethereum vs U.S. Dollar) on 2-hour timeframe...ETH/USD (Ethereum vs U.S. Dollar) on what seems to be the 2-hour timeframe.
Here’s what’s visible:
The chart shows a descending trendline (downtrend) and a horizontal support zone around the $3,200 area.
My marked two “Target Points” above, suggesting a bullish reversal setup from that support.
🎯 Target Levels (approximate based on chart scale)
1. First Target Point: around $3,450 – $3,480
→ This aligns with the first resistance zone and the projected move from the descending breakout.
2. Second Target Point: around $3,720 – $3,750
→ This represents the measured move from the pattern height projected upward — the next major resistance.
---
⚙ Summary
Current Price: ≈ $3,283
Support Zone: ≈ $3,200
1st Target: $3,450
2nd Target: $3,720
Bias: Bullish breakout expected if ETH/USD breaks above the descending trendline and confirms above the Ichimoku cloud.
USD/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe.USD/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe.
Here’s what it shows:
Price has broken below an ascending channel, suggesting a bearish breakout.
My marked two target points with downward arrows.
By reading the price scale on the right side:
📉 Target Levels
1. First Target Point: around 151.500
→ This aligns with the mid-level support from the previous consolidation zone.
2. Second Target Point: around 150.000
→ This represents the full measured move from the channel height projected downward — a major support level and likely the final bearish target.
⚙ Summary
Current Price: ≈ 153.12
1st Target: 151.50
2nd Target: 150.00
Bias: Bearish (breakout below channel + below Ichimoku cloud)
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe.XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe.
From what’s visible:
My drawn a descending trendline that has been broken upward, suggesting a potential bullish breakout.
There’s also a triangle pattern (descending wedge) visible.
My chart already labels a “Target Point” marked around the $4,175 level (based on the y-axis on the right).
🎯 Approximate Target:
$4,175 – $4,180 USD per ounce
This target seems derived from the height of the wedge projected from the breakout point, which is a common method in technical analysis.
⚙ Quick reasoning:
Breakout confirmation: Price has broken above the trendline and the Ichimoku cloud.
Retest area: Around $3,980 – $4,000, which might act as support if price pulls back.
Upside target projection: Matches the wedge height projected upwards → ≈ $4,175.
BTC Line In The Sand Bitcoin has had a turbulent Q4 so far and finds itself at ~$100,000 at the start of November.
The chart clearly defines the structure of the move since the beginning of 2024. Once breaking above last cycles ATH of ~$69,000 BTC's price has moved in relatively typical fashion for a bullrun uptrend. The tariff war marking the range low back in April and the highs have been capped at ~$125,000, on 4 separate weeks this area has rejected and remains major resistance.
As of now BTC is retesting the midpoint as support as it did back in June. Where this time is different is the momentum difference, since the first test of range highs the trend has gone into a choppy phase with lower lows being printed. This distribution pattern is vastly different and quite bearish. Another element to this is the diagonal support trendline that intersects the midpoint at roughly current price, losing this trendline would be added confluence that the bullish trend is over.
Should midpoint and diagonal support be lost the bottom half of the range comes into play, a 25% range that would open the door to a full retrace of this cycles progress back to 2021's ATH.
A strong bounce at midpoint keeps the uptrend alive at least in the short term but BTC would need to finally break range high.






















