BITCOIN One last rally left in the tank?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a non-stop rally following the April 07 2025 rebound on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Being inside a 3-year Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, that was the second time it rebounded on the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci level.
The previous one was during the last Bullish Leg, which was a +106.37% rise, absolutely symmetrical with the Channel's first such Leg in late 2022 - most of 2023.
If the September 2024 (Higher Low) on the 1W MA50 was the start however of a greater expansion Leg similar to late 2023 - early 2024, which delivered a +197.23% rise, we can claim that by October we may see it peaking at around $155500.
That seems to agree with the majority of Cycle Top models we have come up after many analyses. Do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrency
BTC 116.70K stands in focusMorning folks,
Once we've prepared the analysis, we've got upsetting squeeze down, thanks to Galaxy massive sell-off. I don't know what they were trying to do - either hunted for stops under 116K, or just sold in most unwelcome moment... but unfortunately such an issues are out of our control.
For now - BTC totally reversed this sell-off and once again shows positive sentiment. Now we consider same reverse H&S pattern, but this time of a bigger scale. 116.70K support area, where, the right arm should be formed now stands in our focus for long entry. We consider no shorts by far. Hopefully no more tricks will follow from old Donny or somebody else...
XRPUSD Massive break-out that can Top at $12.500XRP (XRPUSD) got out of its Accumulation Triangle (December 2024 - June 2025) making an aggressive break-out similar to the December 2017 one, which was after an identical Triangle pattern.
The fractals are so comparable that both mostly traded within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Mayer Multiple (MM) 2 Stdev Above (orang trend-line).
As you can see, that MM trend-line was where the Top of the previous Cycle (April 2021) was priced and the one before was above the 3 Stdev Above (red trend-line).
Assuming that this Cycle will also go for the 'minimum' 2 Stdev Above test, it can make that contact by the end of the year on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (Cycle Top-to-bottom) at $12.500.
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Bitcoin Dominance – Critical Breakdown on the Horizon
Bitcoin dominance is currently testing a major long-term resistance zone formed by the upper boundary of a multi-year wedge. After months of steady climb, the structure is now showing the first signs of exhaustion
If dominance loses the key 60% support zone, that would mark a major structural shift — historically followed by downtrends in dominance and strong capital rotation into altcoins.
Until dominance reclaims the upper trendline or regains bullish momentum, the risk-reward now favors altcoins. Momentum is shifting. Altseason might just be around the corner.
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP expected to hit $6 Trillion!The Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTAL) has been on a Channel Up since the 2022 market bottom and since the April 07 2025 Low (Higher Low for the pattern), it's initiated the new Bullish Leg, already turning the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support.
As long as this holds, we expect it to complete a +270% rise from the August 05 2024 Low, similar to the Bull Cycle's first Green Phase, and reach at least a $6 Trillion Market Cap!
More importantly, we expect this final part (blue ellipse) to be what is commonly known as an Altseason, where the lower cap coins show much higher returns and disproportionate gains to e.g. Bitcoin.
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BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is basically on its first strong pull-back since the July 14 All Time High (ATH), as it is the 3rd straight red day going from roughly $120300 to below $115000 as of this moment.
Technically this Channel Down pull-back looks like a Bull Flag to the uptrend that started following the June 22 Low. The 1D RSI pattern is similar to the May 22 - 30 fractal, which was also a correction that started after a Channel Up and initially hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to rebound a settle for a last dip lower closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If the 1D MA50 fails to contain the current correction, we may again be faced with a slightly more prolonged pull-back, which may be translated into an Accumulation Phase that could eventually lead to prices above $130000 by September.
Do you think that will be the case or we will see an instant rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XRP/BTC – Channel Midline in Play The XRP/BTC pair trade inside a multi-year channel, with price currently testing the midline of this structure — a pivotal level that could define the next macro leg.
If bulls manage to break the midline to the upside and successfully retest it as support, the upper boundary of the channel becomes the next major target.
🔼 Upside Scenario:
A confirmed breakout above the midline would signal structural strength and likely lead to a rally toward the upper channel resistance.
If this move aligns with BTC dominance dropping below the 60% threshold, we could see a full-blown altseason emerge.
Under such conditions, historical XRP/BTC behavior suggests that XRP/USD could reach $12–$24.
🔽 Downside Risk:
Losing the mid-channel from here would weaken the structure and invalidate the breakout thesis.
In that case, XRP/BTC would likely rotate back toward range lows, and a defensive strategy is warranted.
Macro Implication:
The 60% BTC Dominance level remains critical. A clean breakdown below it historically marks the beginning of altseason, where high-beta plays like XRP against BTC have outperformed. XRP’s current posture within the channel reflects this high-stakes moment.
ETHEREUM Massive Triangle break-out ahead??Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a 4-year Triangle for the entirety of this Cycle. The recent post April rally has been the most aggressive since the parabolic rally that led to the Top of the previous Cycle.
The price is now almost on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle. A break above it, can initiate an aggressive Bullish Leg towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($8000), which was the level that was marginally exceeded during ETH's first rally of this Cycle.
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Is there another XRP flag forming on the hourly chart?Could be another flag forming on XRP. Waiting for the formation to prove confirmation as to whether it will be a bull or bear flag.
News of large amounts of XRP entering the exchanges from the CEO could mean a bear flag?
It's only appearing on the hourly so it could be a false flag.
Let's what and see what forms on the hourly candle.
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
After setting a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase, marked by sideways price action and choppy movements.
There's a notable gap around the $114,000 level, which may act as a magnet for price during this correction.
The ongoing pullback is likely to extend toward the key support zone, which aligns with the previous breakout level and the bottom of the ascending channel.
Once this support holds, we could see a bullish reversal, targeting the upper boundary of the channel once again.
As long as Bitcoin remains above the marked support zone, the overall structure stays bullish and this correction may present a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Will Bitcoin fill the gap and bounce back toward new highs? Let us know your thoughts! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Ready to Start to 125KMorning folks,
Better if you combine this update with previous idea. Now it seems that BTC stands in swamp action, flirting around 116K, which might be looking a bit bearish.
But by our view, this is not quite so. First is, triangle patterns as on daily chart as on 4H chart are look great and quite bullish. Pay attention that on 4H chart all sell-offs were bought out.
Our 1.16 lows that we set as vital ones for this scenario area still intact. So, it means that butterfly with 125K target that we discussed last time is also intact. I would say more. If you take a careful look at 1H chart - you could recognize reverse H&S pattern that could trigger all this stuff. It means that we're not in swamp, but at the point where the decision on long entry has to be made...
Take care
S.
Phemex Analysis #99: PENGU Explodes 480%!Will the Hype Continue?Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), a playful and increasingly popular meme coin, has recently made waves in the crypto market due to its rapid price movements and strong community support. Originally inspired by the beloved Pudgy Penguins NFT collection, PENGU has rapidly transitioned from niche interest to broader market phenomenon.
In recent trading, PENGU surged impressively by nearly 480%, primarily fueled by major exchange listings and growing influencer endorsements. Currently trading around $0.041, PENGU has caught the attention of both meme-coin enthusiasts and seasoned crypto traders, sparking debates over its next big move.
With significant market attention and notable volatility, traders now face an essential question: Is PENGU poised for further explosive growth, or should traders brace for a potential pullback? Let's carefully evaluate several likely scenarios.
Possible Scenarios
1. Bullish Breakout (Continuing the Hype!)
PENGU’s recent price action suggests bullish momentum may persist, especially if the community-driven hype continues. A decisive breakout above recent resistance at $0.046—particularly if supported by increasing trading volumes—could accelerate the bullish trend, targeting next levels at $0.05 and possibly the psychological level of $0.08.
Pro Tips:
Entry Strategy: Consider entering positions only after confirmation of a high-volume breakout above $0.046.
Profit-Taking Targets: Plan partial profit-taking around next key resistance zones at $0.05 and $0.08 to manage risk effectively.
Risk Management: Set tight stop-losses just below recent support levels around $0.035.
2. Short-Term Correction (Healthy Retracement)
Given PENGU’s recent rapid rise, a short-term retracement to retest support levels around $0.035 or lower ($0.03) is likely. If this pullback happens on low volume, it could indicate a healthy consolidation rather than a full trend reversal.
Pro Tips:
Buying the Dip: Closely watch support at $0.035 and $0.03; a low-volume test of these levels might provide excellent entry points for traders who missed earlier rallies.
Volume Monitoring: Ensure low-volume retracements—high volume during declines might signal deeper bearish pressure.
3. Bearish Reversal (The Hype Fades)
As is typical with volatile meme coins, sudden reversals can occur if market sentiment swiftly changes. A high-volume drop below critical support around $0.035 could trigger more significant bearish sentiment, potentially targeting deeper support around $0.022 or even $0.0135.
Pro Tips:
Caution on Reversal Signals: Consider exiting or reducing positions if PENGU decisively breaks below key support levels with strong selling volume.
Accumulation Opportunities: Long-term believers might use significant pullbacks toward $0.022 or $0.0135 as strategic accumulation opportunities after price stabilization occurs.
Conclusion
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) currently sits at an intriguing juncture, offering traders both opportunities and risks. Traders should carefully watch the outlined scenarios, particularly breakout signals above $0.046 and support levels around $0.035 and $0.03. Through disciplined entry and exit strategies, attentive volume analysis, and vigilant risk management, traders can navigate PENGU’s volatility and potentially profit from its next big move.
🔥 Tips:
Armed Your Trading Arsenal with advanced tools like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments at Phemex. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
REI/USDT THE NEXT WHALE INCREASE COIN $0,04 TargetREI/USDT THE NEXT WHALE INCREASE COIN
This coin seems to have a powerful DCA effect, which can be confirmed in the coming time frames with a break.
When there is interest, and new confirmations, here below the update.
entering this coin only when there are more confirmations
The first confirmation is to get first out of this box
Bitcoin New Support at 100,000Bitcoin’s trend has been growing from strength to strength — and it’s likely to stay that way. Why?
This trend isn’t driven purely by speculation; it’s supported by strong fundamental reasons.
One of the most widely debated topics in finance today is the comparison between Bitcoin and gold. While both are viewed as stores of value, their long-term roles may diverge significantly.
Yes, gold and bitcoin have been moving up in near perfect synchronization with inflation.
Gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, and since June 2022 — when inflation peaked at 9% — we’ve seen both gold and Bitcoin trend higher up to the present day.
Instead of asking why the Fed isn’t cutting interest rates despite the decline in CPI, perhaps we should ask: why the Fed prefers to maintain rates at the current level. What are they seeing with the data and the developments?
When both gold and Bitcoin hold steady at these elevated levels, it suggests that investors still believe the threat of rising inflation remains valid.
In all bull markets, the path is never straightforward — it’s often jagged along with volatility.
What distinguishes a continuing bull market - is the formation of higher lows along its timeline.
However, like gold which we recently discussed, Bitcoin may be approaching a medium-term resistance.
In this first week of this year tutorial, we observed an inverted hammer in the last month of 2024, suggesting a potential correction in Bitcoin, but yet seeing support at around 82,000 level.
As anticipated, the inverted hammer was followed by a correction here toward our support level at around 82,000, with some false breaks along. From that point, the market resumed its upward climb.
Now, it appears to be encountering resistance again.
Still, as long as the market continues to form higher lows, and the threat of rising inflation still remain, the bull trend should remain intact.
This is how the projection might look when mapped with a trendline.
We observed that the primary parallel trendline is reacting in relationship to each other. Next I would like to explore its secondary channel.
Please don’t interpret this as a literal path. Instead, I hope it serves as a guideline to help you form your own projections as the market evolves.
Gold is preferred by older generations, central banks, and conservative investors. Deeply entrenched in traditional finance and cultural value systems.
Cryptocurrency has a rapid adoption by younger investors, tech-native users, and institutions. Millennials and Gen Z are more likely to trust cryptographic assets than governments or fiat systems.
I will keep an open mind to both inflation hedge asset and their instruments.
Its video version for this tutorial:
Disclaimer This analysis is based on technical studies and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult your licensed broker before investing.
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