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Cycletop

Bitcoin Warning Signals After October TopBitcoin is breaking back below the $100k level and the channel support drawn from the 2022 lows. This price action suggests that we may be completing the bull cycle that began from those lows—one that lasted roughly three years, similar to previous bullish phases from January 2015 to December 2017 and December 2018 to November 2021. Given this context, there is now a meaningful risk of a deeper correction. Historically, each new cycle tends to produce shallower percentage pullbacks, but the correction phase is still an important part of the broader market structure. For those looking to position themselves for the next major bull run, it would be safer to wait for the market to undergo a sustained corrective period, potentially lasting around a year, before re-entering with the broader trend. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin may have completed a five-wave impulse within a higher-degree wave (V) of III, aligning with the idea that a higher-degree wave IV correction could now be unfolding. Additionally, from a cyclical standpoint, the market appears to have topped in October 2025, which further supports the probability of entering a bear-market phase. In summary, Bitcoin may now be transitioning from a multi-year advance into a structurally significant corrective period—one that could provide a healthier foundation for the next major expansionary cycle.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
1
Bitcoin Price Target for this Cycle TopPrediction model As a basis for my calculations, I will use my Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple indicator, which allows one to assign an overvalued threshold of 12.49 to the indicator. Step 1: Predicting the Puell Multiple Looking at the historical behaviour of the indicator, I came up with these three cases: Conservative case: 10.4 : this was the value at peak (5), when there was a cycle top, but the indicator didn't reach the overvalued territory Base case: 12.5 : just a bit above the overvalued line (12.49) Bull case: 13.61 : the value at peak (3) from December 2013, when the indicator shot over the threshold by a good margin. It hasn't been there since, and it is unlikely to revisit that value. The current correction factor, after the 4th halving, is 1,63^4 = 7.059 . Dividing the above three cases by 7.059 , I transformed them back to the original Puell Multiple's scale: Conservative case: 1.4733 Base case: 1.7708 Bull case: 1.9252 Step 2: Calculating the Miner Revenue from the Puell Multiple The Puell Multiple is a ratio between the current (Daily) Miner Revenue ("Miner Revenue" from now on) and the 365-Day Moving Average of the Daily Miner Revenue . We know the ratio. In order to calculate either term of the ratio, we have to know the other one. Here, it is easier to predict the Moving Average , as its movement is much smoother and more predictable than the erratic raw Miner Revenue . The 365-day Moving Average of the Mining Revenue is at 44.752M USD on the monthly chart at the time of writing. We can expect that it will go higher as the Miner Revenue goes higher while we are approaching the cycle top, so even the conservative case should be higher than the current value. My Miner Revenue MA estimates based on this, are (see picture below. Yellow line: Miner Revenue , Green line: Miner Revenue MA ): Conservative case: 46.8M Base case: 50M Bull case: 52M Multiplying the Miner Revenue MA values by the previously estimated Puell Multiples gives us nine (three times three) possible Miner Revenue values at the cycle tops. I leave the arithmetic to the reader. Step 3: Calculating Bitcoin's price from Miner Revenue Miners get their rewards in Bitcoin for their effort to secure the network. Since we have Miner Revenue estimations from the previous step in USD, we need to know (estimate) how many Bitcoin are issued daily, then it becomes a simple division: Bitcoin price = Miner revenue / Bitcoin's daily issuance Luckily, this data is publicly available. The Miner Revenue (and thus the Bitcoin issuance) consists of two parts: The block reward: it is fixed and doesn't change between halvings Transaction fees: depends on the network traffic If you look up the Bitcoin issuance chart, you can see that it changes from day to day, and in the past one year The highest value it hit was 575 Bitcoin (BTC) 560 BTC was a well respected level, touched only 3 times We can consider 520 BTC relatively high, with most of the days being below it The average falls between 480 and 440 a day, so we can say that 480 is above average When Bitcoin's price hits All-Time Highs (ATH), we can expect more attention from traders and investors, which translates to more transactions on the network, therefore I expect above average transaction fees issued. My estimates are: Conservative case: 480 Base case: 520 Bull case: 560 By dividing our Miner Revenue estimates by these daily issuance values, we will get three estimates for each. Step 4: Putting it all together As we have seen, in Steps 1, 2 and 3, we have three parameters of the equation that I had to estimate: The Puell Multiple Moving Average of the Miner Revenue Daily Issuance Bitcoin price = (Miner Revenue MA * Puell Multiple) / Bitcoin's daily issuance I have estimated three cases (conservative, base and bull) for each of these parameters. Calculating all combinations yields 3x3x3 = 27 Bitcoin price estimations. Here are the highlights: The minimum estimated price is 123125.5 USD, which Bitcoin has already surpassed at the time of writing. The maximum estimated price is 208563.5 USD The average of all estimations is 165009 USD Conclusion I picked the average value of the result set, which is 165009 USD. I feel it realistic. The minimum is already out of the game, and the maximum feels unrealistically bullish. Rounding it, my bottom line is 165000 USD for Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by OperationHeadLessChicken
A new age dawns, one cycle must yield to the next?🧭 Monthly Chart Context From the 2022–23 cyclical bottom ($15K–$16K), #Bitcoin has climbed through multiple Gann angles — each line marking the balance between time ⏳ and price 💰. 🔍 Current Setup BTC is trading around $113K, sitting just below the 1/1 line — the “perfect balance” of trend and time. A monthly close above = trend acceleration 💨 A rejection here = temporary exhaustion ⚠️ 🧠 Summary Insight • Macro: Still bullish, riding the upper half of the fan 🌕 • Mid-term: Expect resistance + cool-off before next leg 🧊 • Invalidation: Monthly close below 2/1 (~$90K) = trend weakness 🚫 When the golden line kisses the last cycle high — it’s to say goodbye. A new age dawns, one cycle must yield to the next. ♻️⚡
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheAlphaView
$BTC / Global Liquidity Acceleration with Business Cycle Today’s PA confirmed an interesting theory I’ve had where liquidity reaches risk assets faster as the business cycle picks up. I wrote about this in depth in my “Twin Peaks” cycle top thesis (pinned tweet). We were charting Total Global Liquidity with a 12-week lead against CRYPTOCAP:BTC before the rate cut in September, and then we got a 1-point higher reading in the ISM PMI, which I believe accelerated the liquidity cycle by a couple weeks. I think for every 25 bps rate cut, we will see TGL accelerate by 2-weeks. The next rate cut is expected at the October 29th FOMC. It will be interesting to track liquidity flows and the ISM PMI after the next rate cut to see how they adapt to markets. The GOLD / BTC chart confirms this acceleration, as GOLD typically has a near 1:1 ratio with TGL. I was one of the first analysts to point out this signal earlier in year before all your favorite large accounts ran with it (go figure). This acceleration in TGL would mark our local bottom near perfectly. If this theory is correct and liquidity does accelerate by another 2 weeks, based on TGL, we would have the cycle’s first top somewhere around November 11th. Currently it’s the 25th with a 10-week lead. That would coincide with my OG ₿itcoin cycle analysis that I put out over 1.5 years ago, where I said the cycle top would be between OCTOBER 6th, which was already a local top, and NOVEMBER 9th. However, there is a discrepancy with the GOLD / BTC chart. The local top would be around December 3rd. It’s currently the 17th with a 10-week lead. I think GOLD has overshot TGL simply based on bull market mechanics creating a parabola. To sum it up, stay vigilant over these next few months, and take nothing for granted. The first peak will for sure come sooner than you think. Going to be fascinating to follow these liquidity flows, at the very least.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
2
$BTC Double Top - Business Cycle & Global Liquidity Analysis TWIN PEAKS 🎄🌲 How the Business Cycle Supercharges Liquidity (and Crushes Cycles Many of you may remember my BTC cycle thesis I wrote ~1.5 years ago. It was based solely on technical analysis covering previous cycles and did not take into account macro conditions such as global liquidity and the business cycle. While that has been a guiding light to get me to this point, after further macro analysis, my views have changed a bit. Based on my technical analysis, a price target north of $200k remains for CRYPTOCAP:BTC , but I now believe we will see some sort of a DOUBLE TOP like we did in 2021; this time in mid-December 2025 and late-March / early April 2026. The December 2025 top will fulfill the “4-Year Cycle prophecy” which has been fueled by the current boom in global liquidity. Whereas the March / April 2026 top will come from a booming business cycle (measured by the ISM PMI); something we have yet to see. As you can see in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the business cycle cues Alt Season. I don’t think we see a real one without it. That’s where people spend the money they made through safer assets such as Gold > Stonks > ₿itcoin etc. We saw Altcoins, NFTs, Sports Cards, Sneakers, Watches, Collectibles etc go parabolic during this time in 2021. And it just so happened that the market for a lot of these high-risk assets topped around that time. Here's a link to a Michael Jordan rookie card in PSA 9 condition that peaked around February 2021 right before the business cycle topped. www.psacard.com I think Altcoins went on for a bit longer after the business cycle topped because they were native on-chain and had less friction to transact (crime season anyone?). NFTs saw sustained speculation because of the novelty and innovation they were bringing to the space. NFTs should act more like traditional risk assets this time around, and top slightly after the business cycle. THE FURTHER WE ARE IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE, THE FASTER LIQUIDITY REACHES RISK ASSETS. Think about it… everyone and their mother are making a ton of money from a booming business cycle ie hairdressers, uber drivers, personal trainers etc and dumb money finds high-risk assets near instantly. We see this with an uptick in google searches, youtube views etc. This is why global liquidity with a 10-12 week lead overshoots cycle tops in the past. An immense amount of Global QE in 2021 created an outlier for a continued pump in liquidity, even after the business cycle topped. Then in the bear market, liquidity deviates from risk assets again as money moves back to safe havens first such as GOLD, which is a near 1:1 injection, and we see ₿itcoin lag by 10-12 weeks. We should continue to see large caps do well for the remainder of the year as money slowly rotates out of BTC into ETH, SOL, BNB etc, but small caps don’t start to outperform until the business cycle starts convincingly rising well above 50. Alternative investments such as sports cards are starting to see a similar rotation. Michael Jordan is the ₿itcoin of sports cards, and many of his cards are well above 2021 all-time highs. Other high-end cards from GOATs such as Tom Brady, Mickey Mantle, Wayne Gretzky etc continue to shatter prior records. NFTs are also starting to see a resurgence with high-end collections such as Crypto Punks, X-Copy etc. I’m not completely sure if the first or second top will be higher for CRYPTOCAP:BTC yet, but I’m leaning towards the first one in December. The aforementioned riskier assets should get the lion’s share of business cycle capital in March / April. At this nexus we will see the Treasury General Account refill suck liquidity out of markets due to tax season. TGA refills have marked previous tops in 2017 and 2021, so I see no reason for this time to be different. Yes, this will be a much shorter business cycle, which is caused by a historic amount of money printing during the pandemic. The outcome left the US economy in a high-inflation / high-interest rate environment. The business cycle represents Main Street, and it is clear that the aftermath of the pandemic has crushed middle and lower income households. ~FIN~ JK POST REFERENCES: -The 4-Year Boom and Bust Cycle is by design -Synchronized Bear Market Bottoms -If you want to dive deeper into the current macro landscape, you should definitely read the playbook I wrote ~10 months ago. It’s been playing out near-perfectly.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by jonnieking
4
BTC - Last Attempt to Call the TopBitcoin has been rising the last few days - presumably for a bearish retest. It doesn’t make sense for the market to continue going up with so much liquidity left to the low zones - and DXY showing support for a 3-5 year bull market on Bitcoin and Equities. Since I’ve had this wrong many times, I will responsibly resign the idea if this one fails to play out. This will be my last signal for this flash crash idea, which I do still firmly believe will play out. We are now back to the original entry of upper zone as listed in posts with the similar price level being hit. The black dashed lines show anticipated 3 wave correction - and the trade plan below details that movement. Alternately short can be held all the way from Trade 1 into Trade 3 (no hedge long) Trade 1 - Short Entry - 119,600 Stop Loss - 123,000 Target 1 - 97,000 Target 2 - 68,000 Target 3 - 44,000 Trade 2 - Long (Hedge with Short still Open) Entry - 35,500 Stop Loss - 33,000 Target 1 - 44,000 Target 2 - 53,000 Target 3 - 85,000 Trade 3 - Short (DCA long hedge profits or re-entry) Entry - 88,000 to 90,000 Stop Loss - 95,000 Target 1 - 62,000 Target 2 - 23,000 Target 3 - 10,000 God bless and good luck to everyone.
Short
by DickDandy
$BTC.D: Cycle tops are in. $ETH.D: Bounce form the all-time lowsIn my opinion the most important chart in all Crypto is the $BTC.D. We have been writing and observing CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D for almost 6 months. I predicted here that we will see CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance @ 66% before the end of this cycle. And we saw CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D touch 65.9% on June 23 as visible from the weekly chart, which is close to our cycle target of 66%. See my blog from April 14. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 66%, CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 / BTC down to 0.43 for CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView But since then, CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is going through reversal. Currently @ 61% the dominance has tumbled in July. Even if CRYPTOCAP:BTC is holding on to its ATH with price near to 118K $ the dominance is clearly in a downtrend. But then we see something which CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D has not done since 2019. In the chart below we have super imposed the CRYPTOCAP:ETH dominance on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dominance. CRYPTOCAP:ETH Dominance as the name suggests is the % of Crypto Market Cap that can be attributed to $ETH. The CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D double bottomed in 2019 @ 8% and then went on for a reversal with CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D peaking @ 22% on Nov 21. Both the Dominance charts have an inverse correlation but have one thing in common. The trend in the Dominance charts is lower. In each cycle the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D makes a lower low peaking at 95% in 2017 cycle, 73.5% in last cycle and 66% in this cycle. The same is true for CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D , starting @ 26% in 2017, 21.5% in the last cycle. So, the obvious question in your mind is where will the CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D peak this cycle. If we draw the downward slopping wedge in the CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D and assume the cycle end by Dec 2025, then we can see the CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D will peak around 17% in this cycle. Currently at 12%, I am predicting another 40% upside form here. Pricewise BITSTAMP:ETHUSD may give a higher return than the $ETH.D. Verdict: CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D top for this cycle is 66%. CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D can top @ 17% this cycle. BITSTAMP:ETHUSD can double from here for CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D to top @ 17%.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by RabishankarBiswal
BTC.D Cycle top in?There are signs that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) could be leaving a cyclical top, similar to what we saw in late 2020. When overlaid with the Global Liquidity Index (inverted and leading by 52 weeks), a potential correlation appears: previous peaks in liquidity were followed by turning points in BTC.D about a year later. If this pattern repeats, a shift in market dynamics — possibly in favor of altcoins — could unfold over the coming year. However, this remains a hypothesis rather than a confirmed signal. The relationship between macro liquidity and crypto sector rotation is worth watching, but it’s not guaranteed to play out the same way again. What’s your take: Altcoin Season loading or not yet?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by MarketIntel
Speculating Bitcoin's Cycle Top!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📚 Back to basics. 🗓️ This is the BTC monthly log chart. 📊 By applying two simple channels—one short-term (🔴) and one long-term (🔵)—we see both upper bounds aligning right around the 💰 $300,000 mark. A classic case of confluence at a key psychological level 🧠✨ 👇 What do you think—are we headed there this cycle, or is it just hopium? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TICKMILL:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
20
Bearish Logscale Butterfly T2 with Bearish MACD & RSI DivergenceBitcoin appears to be set up at the 1.902 HOP for a Type 2 retest of the Logscale Bearish Butterfly that resulted in a major Type 1 reaction from the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension back in 2021, where it dropped from $69,000 to $15,500 over the course of several months before ultimately bottoming at the PCZ of a smaller Log Scale Bullish Butterfly which signaled the Type 2 run up to the 1.902 HOP of the Bearish Butterfly where it is now. As it tests this level the MACD and RSI are both Diverging Bearishly and the RSI especially seems weak as it now struggles to even crack above 70 level. This signals to me that the RSI has confirmed exhaustion after divergence at the HOP and that it is likely ready to start declining further. Saying as though this is the type 2 test, I'd suspect that we'd make a lower low than our previous Type 1 reaction low at $15k, perhaps landing us around $12-10k; but if those levels don't hold It would be technically viable to assume BTC would go for the 0.886 retrace at around $4.6k
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Two Charts to Watch to Time the Crypto Cycle Top Here I have the TOTAL2 chart overlaying the BTC market cap chart. - Black: BTC - White: TOTAL2 - Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC. At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls). I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017. There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire. Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market. An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases. I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off. My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by bhx10
3
Bitcoin CyclesEach Bitcoin boom has ended in about 85% draw down in 2014 and in 2017. Right now the drawdown is at 75% for the 2021 cycle. If we see a similar drawdown of 85% it will be at around ~10000. My guess is that will not happen and that our current 75% draw down is what we will get this cycle but if we get a drawdown to the low teens I'll be backing up the money truck. Each Bitcoin ATH to cycle low has been 89 weeks and 52 weeks respectively. If this is the current cycle's low then that puts it at 61 weeks as marked on the chart, which is between 89 and 52. If the boom and bust cycles continue due to the halvings I'm betting this is the bottom. Each Bitcoin previous ATH to breaking that ATH is marked on the chart. They are 168 weeks and 154 weeks respectively. If we take the average of that we can expect this cycle to take 161 weeks to work out. This puts it around May of 2024 right around the current predicted halving date. RSI is slated for a breakout around the end of the year - we could see a mini cycle like we did in the summer of 2019 after this break. My current prediction is that this is the time to be aggressively dollar cost averaging. I will be buying each week until my powder is dry and if we complete an 85% drawdown I will be going all in.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by malacus
3