Gold Awaits PPI & GDP – Buy Dips, Sell Rallies🟡 XAU/USD – PPI & GDP Data to Define Range Expansion
🔍 Market Context
Gold remains range-bound between $4000–$4100, consolidating after last week’s liquidity sweep.
This week’s key U.S. data — Core PPI, Retail Sales, GDP, and Core PCE — will likely dictate the next major move.
Slight improvement in inflation and consumption data could strengthen the USD temporarily, but overall bias remains bullish mid-term as the Fed is expected to maintain a dovish stance into Q1.
📊 Technical Outlook (4H Chart)
Main Sell Zone (Super OB): 4170–4200 → potential reversal supply zone.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): 4130–4160 → short-term reaction zone if price retraces.
Sell Zone: 4090–4095 → short opportunity aligned with intraday bearish structure.
Buy Zone 1: 4024–4025 → minor demand, expecting internal liquidity sweep.
Buy Zone 2 (Main OB): 4003–4001 → strong order block with multiple rejections; key liquidity pool.
Structure: H4 BOS (Bullish) intact, suggesting a liquidity sweep before next expansion upward.
🎯 Trade Plan
1️⃣ SELL Setup – Short-term reaction from FVG
Entry: 4090–4095
Stop Loss: 4100
Take Profit 1: 4055
Take Profit 2: 4040
Take Profit 3: 4025
➡️ Reasoning: Price is likely to tap the lower edge of FVG and sweep local liquidity before a downside reaction toward internal range demand.
2️⃣ BUY Setup – First demand zone test
Entry: 4024–4025
Stop Loss: 4022
Take Profit 1: 4065
Take Profit 2: 4080
➡️ Reasoning: Expecting a short-term liquidity grab below the mid-range before bullish continuation.
3️⃣ BUY Setup – Main OB accumulation zone
Entry: 4003–4001
Stop Loss: 3998
Take Profit 1: 4045
Take Profit 2: 4075
Take Profit 3: 4090
➡️ Reasoning: Deep liquidity zone aligning with higher-timeframe OB. If macro data disappoints, this area can trigger the next impulsive leg to retest 4170+.
🧭 Overall Bias
→ Ranging bias before Core PCE
→ Buy dips – Sell rallies within 4000–4100 until a clear breakout post-GDP/PCE data.
→ Watch for false breakouts around FVG and maintain risk control before U.S. session releases.
