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Global E-Online | GLBE | Long at $34.55Global-e Online NASDAQ:GLBE provides a direct-to-consumer, cross-border e-commerce platform. It enables merchants to sell internationally and shoppers to buy globally, handling localization, payments, shipping, and logistics for worldwide transactions. Some companies NASDAQ:GLBE handles transactions for include Bath & Body Works, Victoria's Secret, SKIMS, Forever 21, and many more. Technical Analysis NASDAQ:GLBE is currently in a consolidation / "share accumulation" phase (i.e. trading sideways, overall), and the price is riding within my selected historical simple moving average. Often, the price will bounce along this area until momentum picks up and then it's off to the races to fill all the open price gaps above on the daily chart. The only concern I have is there is an open price gap on the daily chart near $21 that will likely get filled at some point. However, the earnings and revenue projections, if accurate, may delay this area from being filled for some time. Revenue and Earnings Growth into 2028 538% earnings-per-share growth expected between 2025 ($0.34) and 2028 ($2.17). 98% revenue growth projected between 2025 ($946 million) and 2028 ($1.87 billion). www.tradingview.com Health Extremely healthy, financially. Debt-to-Equity: 0x (can't beat that) Quick Ratio / Ability to Pay Today's Bills: 2.5x (no issues) Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 11.6 (extremely low risk) Action The projected growth of NASDAQ:GLBE makes sense if there is continued rapid on-boarding of blue-chip clients. There is always the chance other companies, like Shopify, will partner, too. The company is also extremely financially healthy. It should be able to weather the storm in the near-term if there is a financial downturn. That is the only major risk I see here. If the economy flips globally, such companies, regardless of their performance, will get hit hard. However, if the growth is accurate, this is a no-brainer value/growth play. Time will tell.... thus, at $34.55, NASDAQ:GLBE is in a personal buy zone with near-term risks of a drop to $21 or below if the world economy flips. Targets into 2028 $50.00 (+44.7%) $60.00 (+73.7%)
NASDAQ:GLBELong
by WorthlessViews
DXY UpdateDXY — Reaction at 98.611 Distribution Zone The U.S. Dollar Index met firm resistance near 98.611, the same Bearish distribution area that capped momentum last week. Price remains inside a wide daily range but shows the first sign of cooling after a strong stretch higher. Below sits 98.143, the line that that changes chart bearish. Until then We are still good. Acceptance under that level would confirm a structure shift and open space for continued rotation lower. Upcoming jobless claims and Fed remarks may decide which side gains conviction. For now, this is a market balancing inventory — not trending, just redistributing. Trade confirmation, not anticipation. Key levels: 98.611 — Distribution cap 98.143 — Structural pivot — Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
S&P500 | Mild CrashRisk assets looking to sell off as the stock market tops out around $6,800. Current price action is only pulling back to test sellers again and we should see a continuation in selling until mid November and hopefully to see a Christmas rally to end the year off. Since price action awfully looks similar to '24 - '25 Fractal we could say the SPX will look to top next year February/March also considering we're on correction 4 in the Elliott Wave Theory. Would like to see the S&P bottom out around April - July months of next year at $5,600 if we can continue the bullish parallel trend.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Nathanl19
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Bullish Analysis XAU/USD (15M) The market has shown a Change of Character (CHoCH) and respected the 1H Order Block (OB), creating a strong bullish impulse after mitigating the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG). Following this move, a Break of Structure (BOS) has occurred, forming a New Higher High (HH), which confirms institutional intention to drive price higher and capture liquidity. 🔑 Projected Scenario • A possible Fake Out + Rejection around the 4,294 support zone. • Entry at 4,294 with Stop Loss at 4,261 (Risk/Reward ratio: 1:3). • First target (TP1) at 4,357. • Second target (TP2) at 4,400. 📌 Key Takeaways • Institutions are likely to manipulate liquidity before continuation. • Patience is required for confirmation at the rejection zone. • Scaling out profits at TP1 and TP2 gives both security and flexibility in trade management. ✨ Motivational Note Smart trading is not about predicting; it’s about preparing. Patience and discipline are the strongest weapons of a professional trader. 🚀. GOOD LUCK TRADERS ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
ETHFIUSDT → Correction to support consolidation. Rally?BINANCE:ETHFIUSDT is correcting after updating its local maximum to 1.9382. The breakout of the 1.6775 zone is an attempt to start distribution after a long consolidation. Will the bulls hold this zone? Bitcoin is correcting after a false breakout of resistance. Against this backdrop, the entire cryptocurrency market is declining. However, the trend is bullish and the fundamental background is positive. The end of the correction may resume growth in the market. ETHFI on the daily timeframe is trying to move into a distribution phase after 5-6 months of consolidation. The trend is upward, and after breaking through resistance, a correction to the liquidity zone of 1.6775 is forming. A false breakdown, a change in market imbalance, and consolidation above 1.6780 could increase buyer interest, which in turn could lead to growth. Resistance levels: 1.8980, 1.9382 Support levels: 1.6775, 1.5343 The chart shows two key levels - 1.6775 and 1.5343. If the bulls hold their ground above the nearest level of 1.6775, this could lead to a rebound and growth, which in turn would confirm the continuation of the distribution phase. Otherwise, the market may test the POC zone at 1.5343, and liquidity capture may in turn trigger growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
14
ALU | '21 Fractals | Price Projection Four different fractals with similar results. Q2 '21 price was in convergence and took off in July similarly to price action in '23 -'24. Except price was in divergence and stopped selling off in July and took off in November leaving the middle months for accumulation. After the expansion phase of the market in '24 price action got tossed into the distribution phase and price was bound to fall to these lows today. Looking at Q4 '23 Fractal it fits perfectly with what we saw early this year when price was distributing. Regardless what the news and fundamentals where saying price was able to repeat the same fractal by using the lows of '21. Q4 '24 Fractal is the most recent pattern that we can reference with todays price action to get a projected estimate. Current price action has also stopped selling in July and has been accumulating since then Would like to see price action close at ATHs going into the next year and into the next distribution phase.
Long
by Nathanl19
CCO | Distribution Pattern | FractalsLooking ahead we can see the next phase of price action falling into a distribution pattern Since correction wave 4 buyers took off but seem to be running out of steam. Eventually sellers will have to show what they can do after this trend breaks on a lower timeframe. Ideal move going forward would focus on short positions only with a local swing target of ~$96 since that was the last area of support Entries would be somewhere at the Head if using textbook patterns (HnS) or SMR A confirmation entry to be on the safe side would be after the Breakout Bar indicating a change in trend, and then waiting for the Distribution phase to kick in for more shorting opportunities. To add confluence to this trade idea we can look back at historical price action and find similar fractals that matches with current price movement At least two fractals are spotted with the same patterns that are building the same price structure we're in Elliott Impulse Wave, HnS Pattern, and Distribution Phases. If buyers are not interested in the local support lvl then liquidity at $76 will be next zone.
TSX:CCOShort
by Nathanl19
GOLD → Consolidation before continued growth FX:XAUUSD is undergoing a correction amid revised unemployment data, but this has not disrupted the overall technical situation. The market is still anticipating an aggressive reduction in interest rates... The price resumed its growth on Wednesday amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar ahead of the release of US inflation data (PPI). The price is correcting after a record high of $3675, but retains the potential for further growth. The escalation of the situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is increasing demand for safe assets. Expectations of Fed policy easing and a revision of employment data are weighing on the USD. PPI inflation data: Today's release may temporarily support the USD if the figures exceed forecasts, but the overall trend remains bearish for the dollar. PPI data is ahead, which may cause short-term volatility, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Support levels: 3640, 3628 Resistance levels: 3657, 3675 Technically, I expect to see a correction from local resistance to the 3645-3640 area, from which growth may continue. A breakout of 3657 could trigger a continuation of the momentum. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
25
UPS: From Delivering Packages to Delivering ValueAs you probably know by now, my strategy consists of finding cheap, deep-value, beaten-up, underdog stocks. This is the strategy I've been using for the last 5 years and that allows me to consistently outperform the S&P 500 by 2x to 3x every year. This does not guarantee that all my analyses are correct. But if I'm correct 6 or 7 times out of 10, then I'm a rich man! Now back to UPS! Over the last 3 years, the stock lost 64% of its value. But... did sales or income decline by the same account? Did margins decline? Did the company decrease its fleet by 60%? The answer to all these questions is NO, and this is why I think the stock is undervalued. Yeah, the tariff war and Amazon's slowing of the UPS agreement hurt sales, but these are transient. Overview UPS stock is down 64% since its ATH in 2022. P/S ratio is at 0.8, the lowest since 2009. P/E ratio is at 12.6, the lowest in the history of the stock The P/B ratio is at 4.58, the lowest since 2006. Dividend yield is at 7.8%. The CEO recently bought $1 million worth of UPS stock. This data gives us some clues. The stock is obviously underpriced, despite the fact that UPS is still one of the market leaders and the sales are stable. Financial performance Revenue: TTM $90.69 billion (+1.3% YoY); Revenue is improving, but still 10% down since the $100 billion in 2022. Profitability: Operating margin 9.4% (TTM), net margin 6.4%; EPS is now at $7.70, which is a similar level to what it was in 2020 and 2021, when the stock price was at $120. However, now the stock price is at $85. Balance Sheet: Debt $26 billion, debt-to-equity 1.45x, which is totally fine. Growth prospects UPS is cutting costs and jobs, targeting $3.5 billion in savings by 2026 via automation/AI (5-7% annual cost reduction). E-commerce will sustain long-term growth. The company is innovating with AI-improved routes, self-driving trucks, and drones. Technical Analysis The stock price is right above the $85 resistance level, which has been a support/resistance level since 2005. My target Considering the prospects, estimates, etc, I can see UPS going to $110 to $130 range in mid-2026, providing an upside of 30% to 40%. This level also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.236 level. If the stock continues to drop, I will simply average down. I don't think it can drop much more from here, and it will definitely not go bankrupt. I'm gonna invest approximately 1% of my wealth into this stock. Remember, I'm just sharing my journey and this is not financial advice! 😎
NYSE:UPSLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
Seller Strength Evident as Volume Peaks Fail to Propel Price HigAnalysis Context – This 1D chart uses the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer to study the A→B→C structure over the last 11 trading sessions. Segment C→B captures the advance (blue), while B→A captures the subsequent decline (red). Each bar’s up‑ and down‑volume is measured on a lower timeframe to detect buying and selling pressure. Volume ranking – Within this 11‑bar window, the indicator identifies the three largest buying (B1–B3) and selling (S1–S3) bars. Although the B1 bar shows the highest buying volume (~10.29 M units), its selling volume (~12.52 M) exceeds buying, resulting in a negative delta of ‑2.23 M. B2 is the only buyer bar with a positive delta (+1.87 M), while B3 again shows sellers in control (‑0.90 M). The seller bars S1–S3 all display net negative deltas, with S3 registering the heaviest selling (‑4.03 M). This pattern shows that peaks in buying volume are not producing higher closes and that sellers are consistently overwhelming buyers. Segment behaviour – The C→B segment (the rally) totals approximately +28.9 M up‑volume versus +36.7 M down‑volume, a net deficit of about ‑7.74 M. The subsequent decline (B→A) is even more one‑sided: +26.9 M up‑volume versus +41.4 M down‑volume, yielding a ‑14.5 M delta. The slopes of the segment trend lines reinforce this narrative: the rise from C to B has a shallow positive slope (~ 5° on the upper line), whereas the decline from B to A has a steeper negative slope (‑12° on the upper line). Sellers are pushing the price lower more aggressively than buyers previously pushed it higher. Price structure – Price currently trades near TRY 3.45,where resistance resides near the recent pivot highs around TRY 3.65 and TRY 3.73 (where B1 and S1 occur). As long as the price remains below these levels and buying peaks fail to translate into higher highs, the bearish bias remains. The red dashed line is not a fixed support; it dynamically connects the lows of the current C→A leg and updates with each new candle’s low. Its red colour confirms the bearish slope of this segment. As long as this guide remains red and slopes downward, the downtrend is intact. A meaningful sign of shifting momentum would be a flattening or reversal of this guide (e.g., changing colour) accompanied by a new B‑ranked bar that shows a positive delta. Risk management – This analysis is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Always consider your own risk tolerance and trading plan before entering a position.
BIST:CONSEShort
by ata_sabanci
EURAUD – Incoming Upthrust? Accumulation or Distribution? Chart Context: EURAUD recently completed a sharp markdown after a textbook rising channel break. What’s interesting now is that price has entered what looks like a potential box range between 1.7768 and 1.7885. I'm anticipating a possible upthrust move into the 1.788x zone — and what follows will reveal the true intent. Here’s the internal debate: Are we looking at reaccumulation — smart money trapping shorts before driving higher in line with broader money flow? Or is this a distribution — where the market builds a false sense of support before deeper downside? 🔍 What tips the scale for now is this: >The overall money flow direction (via volume patterns + structure) has leaned bullish, so I’m favoring accumulation with a shakeout scenario. Signs I’m watching: ✅ Absorption volume near the bottom of the range ✅ Higher lows inside the zone ✅ Fake breakout / upthrust into prior structure ❌ Failure to hold above 1.7855 could flip the bias short-term 📉 Expecting one more dip to test demand, followed by range tightening, and if buyers show up strong — the breakout can get explosive. What’s your take? Are we prepping for a markup or will this fakeout and roll over? "I go long or short as close as I can to the danger point, and if the danger becomes real, I close out and take a small loss"
Short
by theeOperator90
July 15 2025 -Sell Limit ActivatedGood day, folks! Just sharing another learning from my ideas here: EURUSD has been in a bearish structure since July 14, 2025 (1H Intraday). As you know, I always look for clear supply or demand validation before placing a sell or buy limit order. On the chart, you can see a valid supply zone that was generated on Monday. After that, I waited for a clear move during the Tuesday London and New York sessions, with the CPI news release acting as a catalyst for more volatility. The trade came to fruition during the New York session on Tuesday. (See chart for the complete breakdown of the movement and entry.) RR: 1:3 Another Wyckoff schematics and structure analysis.
Short
by glyrad
What Is T-Distribution in Trading? What Is T-Distribution in Trading? In the financial markets, understanding T-distribution in probability is a valuable skill. This statistical concept, crucial for small sample sizes, offers insights into market trends and risks. By grasping T-distribution, traders gain a powerful tool for evaluating strategies, risks, and portfolios. Let's delve into what T-distribution is and how it's effectively used in the realm of trading. Understanding T-Distribution The T-distribution in probability distribution plays a crucial role in trading, especially in situations where sample sizes are small. William Sealy Gosset first introduced it under the pseudonym "Student". This distribution resembles the normal distribution with its bell-shaped curve but has thicker tails, meaning it predicts more outcomes in the extreme ends than a normal distribution would. A key element of T-distribution is the concept of 'degrees of freedom', which essentially refers to the number of values in a calculation that are free to vary. It's usually the sample size minus one. The degrees of freedom affect the shape of the T-distribution; with fewer degrees of freedom, the distribution has heavier tails. As the degrees of freedom increase, the distribution starts to resemble the normal distribution more closely. This is particularly significant in trading when dealing with small data sets, where the T-distribution provides a more accurate estimation of probability and risk than the normal distribution. T-Distribution vs Normal Distribution T-distribution and normal distribution are foundational in statistical analysis, yet they serve different purposes. While both exhibit a bell-shaped curve, the T-distribution has thicker tails, implying a higher probability of extreme values. This makes it more suitable for small sample sizes or when the standard deviation is unknown. In contrast, the normal distribution, with its thinner tails, is ideal for larger sample sets where the standard deviation is known. Traders often use T-distribution for more accurate analysis in small-scale or uncertain data scenarios, while normal distribution is preferred for larger, more stable datasets, where extreme outcomes are less likely. Application in Trading In trading, T-distribution is a valuable tool for analysing financial data. It is primarily used in constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis testing, which are essential for making informed trading decisions. For instance, a trader might use T-distribution to test the effectiveness of a new trading strategy. Suppose a trader has developed a strategy using the technical analysis tools and wants to understand its potential effectiveness compared to the general market performance. They would collect a sample of returns from this strategy over a period, say, 30 days. Given the small sample size, using T-distribution is appropriate here. The trader would then calculate the mean return of this sample and use T-distribution to create a confidence interval. This interval would provide a range within which the true mean return of the strategy is likely to lie, with a certain level of confidence. If this confidence interval shows a higher mean return than the market average, the trader might conclude that the strategy is potentially effective. However, it's important to note that this is an estimation and not a guarantee of future performance. How to Plug Probability and Normal Distribution in Your T-Calculation To use a T-calculator for integrating probability and normal distribution, follow these steps: - Input Degrees of Freedom: For T-distribution, calculate the degrees of freedom (sample size minus one). - Convert Z-Score to T-Value: If using normal distribution data, convert the Z-score (standard deviation units from the mean in a normal distribution) to a T-value using the formula: T = Z * (sqrt(n)), where 'n' is the sample size. - Enter T-Value: Input this T-value into the calculator. - Calculate Probability: The calculator will then output the probability, providing a statistical basis for trading decisions based on the T-distribution. Limitations and Considerations of T-Distribution While T-distribution is a powerful tool in trading analysis, it's important to recognise its limitations and considerations: - Sample Size Sensitivity: T-distribution is most effective with small sample sizes. As the sample size increases, it converges to a normal distribution, reducing its distinct utility. - Assumption of Normality: T-distribution assumes that the underlying data is approximately normally distributed. This may not hold true for all financial data sets, especially those with significant skewness or kurtosis. - Degrees of Freedom Complications: Misestimating degrees of freedom can lead to inaccurate results. It's crucial to calculate this correctly based on the sample data. - Outlier Sensitivity: T-distribution can be overly sensitive to outliers in the data, which can skew results. Advanced Applications of T-Distribution in Trading T-distribution extends beyond basic trading applications, playing a role in advanced financial analyses: - Risk Modelling: Utilised in constructing sophisticated risk models, helping traders assess the probability of extreme losses. - Algorithmic Trading: Integral in developing complex algorithms. - Portfolio Optimisation: Assists in optimising portfolios by estimating returns and risks of various assets. - Market Research: Used in advanced market research methodologies to analyse small sample behavioural studies. The Bottom Line The T-distribution is a powerful tool, offering nuanced insights in scenarios involving small sample sizes or uncertain standard deviations. Its ability to accommodate real-world data's quirks makes it invaluable for various trading applications, from strategy testing to risk assessment. However, understanding its limitations and proper application is crucial for accurate analysis. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by FXOpen
1
GBPUSD Sell Limit Activated June 17 2025This trade was taken today, (tuesday- june 17, 2025). Based on 1H timeframe Supply. I wait for London Session and check for possible liquidity sweep in 15 min and 5min timeframe. I noticed a CHOCH followed by tap in Supply zone of the schematics. I decide to create a sell limit order during New York Session to maximize the Risk to Reward Ratio. (Check the charts for detailed label and movement). 1:7RR Wyckoff schematics in 1H timeframe--> confluence of supply in lower timeframes for validity. RR:7 Another classic distribution. patience is the key :) #wyckoff #sell #supplyanddemand
Short
by glyrad
AUDUSD → Correction after a false breakout before growthFX:XAUUSD continues to rise amid uncertainty surrounding the dollar, which continues to consolidate. The currency pair is preparing to test resistance at 0.6537 The dollar is stuck in place due to market uncertainty. At the same time, the Australian dollar is strengthening and is ready to test the liquidity zone Within the current trend, the currency pair is heading towards resistance and the liquidity zone. We opened far away, and as we move towards the target, the potential for further growth may end. A false breakout of 0.6537 could trigger a correction Resistance levels: 0.6537 Support levels: 0.6509, 0.6479 A sharp move towards resistance without the possibility of further growth could cause a false breakout of 0.6537. Price consolidation below this level could trigger a correction before growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
6
BITCOIN WEEKLY WYCKOFF — DISTRIBUTION OR REACCUMULATION?BTC has formed a textbook Wyckoff structure on the weekly chart — but are we entering Phase D markdown, or is this just a trap before continuation? 📉 Distribution Case (Primary Bias): BC → UT → UTAD clearly defined Bearish RSI divergence at UTAD confirms momentum exhaustion Volume drying up = weakening demand 🎯 Targeting the 0.618–0.66 fib zone near 87k–89k, confluence with previous structure 🧠 Reaccumulation Possibility (Alternative Scenario): Structure also mimics Reaccumulation Schematic #2 If support at 101k–104k holds and price reclaims 112k with strong volume → UTAD may prove to be a SOS, not a trap ⚠️ Levels to Watch: 🔺 UTAD: 112,087 🔸 BCLX: 108,496 → structural pivot 🔻 AR: 92,160 → distribution confirmation if lost 🎯 Target: 89,050 – 87,206 (fib + horizontal confluence) 🟠 Final invalidation for reaccumulation: weekly close below 87k Whether we’re heading for Phase D markdown or one final shakeout before markup, this structure will define BTC’s path for the coming months. Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims UTAD with strength. Conviction: Grows with breakdown + volume spike under 101k.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
1
Bitcoin – Entering a distribution phase after a bull trap?Since the second week of May, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a textbook accumulation phase, with a well-defined trading range forming just below the previous all-time high. Beginning around May 12, price action became increasingly compressed, marked by a series of higher lows and relatively flat resistance, indicating growing demand and waning selling pressure. This consolidation structure persisted for more than a week, suggesting that larger players were accumulating positions in anticipation of a breakout. Now it could be making the Power of 3. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution Eventually, this coiled energy resolved to the upside. BTC broke through the upper boundary of the accumulation zone with increasing volume and momentum, triggering a sharp rally and leading to the formation of a new all-time high. At that point, market sentiment turned decidedly bullish, with breakout traders entering the market, expecting continuation. However, the price failed to sustain above the previous ATH for long. Despite the breakout’s initial strength, Bitcoin was unable to establish a solid foothold above the critical psychological and technical level, which has now proven to be a key inflection point. Soon after setting a new high, BTC began to reverse, shedding gains and retracing back below the former resistance level, which had temporarily acted as support. The breakdown below the $106,000 mark, previously the ceiling of the accumulation range, signaled a notable shift in market structure. What was initially viewed as a healthy continuation pattern evolved into what now appears to be a classic bull trap. This type of failed breakout often leaves market participants vulnerable, as late buyers are caught in drawdowns and early longs may be incentivized to exit positions. Given this context, the recent price action carries the hallmarks of a Power of 3, where market makers and institutions may be offloading positions to less informed participants. This phase is often mistaken for continued accumulation by retail traders due to its structural similarity; however, the key difference lies in the failure to maintain new highs and the emergence of lower highs on any attempted bounce. The rejection above the ATH and the subsequent breakdown below $106K has introduced significant overhead supply, which may act as resistance in the near term. Target levels As BTC continues to trade below this critical level, the likelihood of a further retracement grows. The market appears to be transitioning into a phase of redistribution or distribution proper, where price is likely to be capped on rallies and pressured lower over time. It is reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could revisit $100.000 to mid-$90,000s, an area that may serve as a magnet for liquidity and a potential staging ground for the next major move. This region could represent a "Last Point of Supply" (LPSY) within the Wyckoff framework, typically the final area where smart money distributes before initiating a more decisive markdown phase. Nevertheless, this potential pullback should not be viewed solely as a sign of weakness. In many bull cycles, such corrections and shakeouts serve to flush out over-leveraged positions and reset sentiment, ultimately laying the groundwork for renewed upward momentum. Should BTC find stability and demand re-emerge in the $95K–$100K range, it could mark the beginning of a new re-accumulation phase, leading to a healthier and more sustainable advance. Conclusion In summary, the recent breakout above ATH followed by a sharp reversal and loss of key support paints a cautionary picture in the short term. Bitcoin may currently be navigating a distribution zone, with downside pressure likely to persist as the market digests recent gains. However, such corrections are typical in broader uptrends and often present opportunities for strategic entries once the next accumulation structure becomes clear. Patience and disciplined observation will be essential as the market defines its next directional bias. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
60
AUDCAD | HnS Pattern | 500pips DownPrice action has continued selling off after retesting the previous breakout below the neckline and will be looking to hit another 500pips+ When looking at local price action on lower timeframes the double top rejection at ~0.90 has entered a distribution phase which is signaling price to fall further with the first target at 0.88 and so on. For price to hit the last target around 0.855 I would like to see a break first then a retest/distribution phase.
Short
by Nathanl19
Mastering the ICT Power of 3 concept - How to use it in trading!The financial markets often appear chaotic and unpredictable, but behind the scenes, institutional players operate with clear strategies that shape price action. One such strategy is the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) "Power of 3" model, a framework used to understand and anticipate market cycles through three key phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. This guide will break down each of these phases in detail, explaining how smart money operates and how retail traders can align themselves with the true direction of the market.

 What will be discussed? - The 3 phases - Examples of the PO3 - How to trade the PO3 - Tips for trading the PO3 The 3 phases Accumulation 
 The Accumulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model refers to the initial stage of a market cycle where institutional or "smart money" participants quietly build their positions. During this time, price typically moves sideways within a tight range, often showing little to no clear direction. This is intentional. The market appears quiet or indecisive, which is designed to confuse retail traders and keep them out of alignment with the real intentions of the market's larger players. In this phase, smart money is not looking to move the market dramatically. Instead, they are focused on accumulating long or short positions without drawing attention. They do this by keeping price contained within a consolidation zone. The idea is to gather enough liquidity, often from unsuspecting retail traders entering early breakout trades or trying to trade the range, before making a more aggressive move. Manipulation The Manipulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the second stage that follows accumulation. This phase is where smart money deliberately moves the market in the opposite direction of their intended move to trigger retail stop losses, induce emotional decisions, and create liquidity. After price has consolidated during accumulation, many retail traders are either already positioned or have orders waiting just outside the range, either stop losses from those trading the range or breakout orders from those anticipating a directional move. The manipulation phase exploits this positioning. Price will often break out of the accumulation range in one direction, appearing to confirm a new trend. This move is designed to look convincing, it might even come with a spike in volume or momentum to draw traders in. However, this breakout is a false move. It doesn’t represent the true intention of smart money. Instead, it's meant to sweep liquidity, triggering stop losses above or below the range, and then reverse sharply. This stop run provides the liquidity needed for large players to finalize their positions at optimal prices. Once enough liquidity is collected, and retail traders are caught offside, the real move begins. Distribution The Distribution Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the final stage of the cycle, following accumulation and manipulation. This is where the true intention of smart money is revealed, and the market makes a sustained, directional move, either bullish or bearish. Unlike the earlier phases, distribution is marked by clear price expansion, increased volatility, and decisive momentum. After smart money has accumulated positions and shaken out retail traders through manipulation, they have the liquidity and positioning needed to drive the market in their desired direction. The distribution phase is where these positions are "distributed" into the broader market, meaning, institutions begin to offload their positions into the retail flow that is now chasing the move. Retail traders, seeing the strong trend, often jump in late, providing the liquidity for smart money to exit profitably. This phase is typically what retail traders perceive as the real trend, and in a sense, it is. However, by the time the trend is obvious, smart money has already entered during accumulation and profited from the manipulation. What appears to be a breakout or trend continuation to most retail participants is actually the final leg of the smart money’s strategy. They are now unloading their positions while price continues to expand. Examples of the Power of 3 How to trade the PO3? Start by identifying a clear accumulation range. This typically happens during the Asian session or the early part of the London session. Price moves sideways, forming a consolidation zone. Your job here isn’t to trade, but to observe. Draw horizontal lines marking the high and low of the range. These become your key liquidity zones. Next, anticipate the manipulation phase, which usually occurs during the London session or at the NY open. Price will often break out of the range, triggering stop losses above the high or below the low of the accumulation zone. This move is deceptive, it is not the real trend. Do not chase it. Instead, wait for signs of rejection, such as a sharp reversal after the liquidity grab, imbalance filling, or a shift in market structure on a lower timeframe (like a 1- or 5-minute chart). Once manipulation has swept liquidity and price starts showing signs of reversing back inside the range or beyond, you now look for a confirmation of the true move, this begins the distribution phase. You enter in the direction opposite of the manipulation move, ideally once price breaks a structure level confirming that smart money has taken control. For example, if price consolidates overnight, fakes a move to the downside (running sell stops), and then quickly reverses and breaks above a key swing high, that's your signal that the true move is likely up. Enter after the break and retest of structure, using a tight stop loss below the recent low. Your target should be based on liquidity pools, fair value gaps, or higher-timeframe imbalances. The key to trading the Power of 3 is patience and precision. You're not trying to catch every move, but to wait for the market to complete its cycle of deception and then ride the clean expansion. Ideally, your entry comes just after manipulation, and you hold through the distribution/expansion phase, taking partials at key liquidity levels along the way. Tips for trading the PO3
 1. Learn price movements Before you can effectively apply the ICT Power of 3 strategy, it’s crucial to have a deep understanding of how price behaves. This means being comfortable identifying market structure, recognizing trend direction, and interpreting candlestick dynamics. Since the Power of 3 is deeply rooted in how price moves in real time, a strong grasp of these basics will give you the confidence to read the market correctly as each phase develops. 2. Analyse multiple timeframes Although the Power of 3 pattern shows up on lower timeframes, relying on just one can lead to misreads. You’ll gain a clearer picture when you align the short-term view with higher timeframe structure. For example, what appears to be accumulation on the 15-minute chart may simply be a retracement in a larger trend on the 1-hour or daily. By examining multiple timeframes together, you can better identify the true setup and avoid being tricked by noise. 3. Exercise patience A key part of trading the Power of 3 is knowing when to act, and more importantly, when not to. It’s easy to get impatient during the accumulation or manipulation phases, but entering too early often leads to frustration or losses. True discipline comes from waiting for the expansion or distribution phase, when the market reveals its real direction. This is where the most favorable risk-to-reward setups occur. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
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