J6 06 April 2017There are several divergences on volume on way up. There is also increasing volume on down swing. This is bearish change behaviour. I expect move down on Yen future. It means on forex pair USDJPY.
JShort
Distribution
EURGBP 06 April 2017Last week highest volume bar acts as resisstance. We saw the price bouncing the zone. Now, it should go down.
On daily chart EURGBP broke trend line
Short
Kiwi continue downtrend after re-ditributionClearly visible on cumulative volume selling pressure - falling through the ICE pattern.
Wait for pullback and go short.
G6 FUTURES/GBPUSD Ascending Wedge Short Setup As we can see, price created ascending wedge short setup, there is also SOT formation which informing us that buyers are getting weak.. at 12 it was a large volume on the market so it was a signal that smart money are getting off and distribution is coming.. Sell a break of bottom trendline. I am expecting price will drop to first demand level around 1.2360 or 1.23250 on forex. Good Luck
BShort
GBPUSD Triangle BreakoutAs you can see price broke formed triangle after distribution phase on strong supply level. Wait for candlestick formation and enter for short. I am expecting price go down around 1.22300. Good luck
Short
Is the AMD Hype Over? AMD has shown no signs of slowing down, until now. After the mixed reviews of Ryzen, which was initially a reason for all the hype around AMD, investors are selling. With even the largest investor dropping 45 million shares at $13.70. This is all as AMD was hitting a near 10 year high, which also happened to be a major resistance/support level.
On the weekly chart, we can see Bearish Divergence on the RSI, and the MACD Leader.
Also, for the first time since the beginning of 2016, the Accumulation/Distribution line has dropped below the 20MA on the weekly, showing a potential change in trend. (Not Shown)
Short
Yieldco sector, don't miss the 8point3 buy.CAFD, already sporting a 7.5% yield, just broke out of volatility consolidation to the downside. This is a very easy chart to trade, as the key levels are very obvious. You should be able to pick this guy up close to $12 a share with a nice 8% divy that has almost doubled in last two years. Balance sheet is good, i've checked myself. Aim to sell around $16 or just hold forever. Excellent risk/reward here
CLong
Short
TECHNICALS | EEM Breaking-OutEEM looks to be breaking-out beyond technical resistance and through the top of the value area as indicated by the distribution on the left axis.
Long
AUDUSD Short Trinity SetupGood distribution setup up into a previous resistance level, offer a good risk reward opportunity
Short
AUDUSD Short Trinity TradeHitting a leg start on the 4 hour, set profit targets on 1 hr chart. Solid distribution set up on 1 hr chart when hitting a 4 hour level.
Short
EURGBP where is the distribution at?Doing my post market review, not a lot to look at today so lining up potential levels that could set up good trades. Would like to see distribution to start setting up into the marked level for a potential short. This would be a first touch of a significant level which should trigger some liquidity at the least.
Short
FTSE completing a Quasimodo Top?I'm not a fan of Head and Shoulders patterns - inverted or otherwise - but many people will have noticed the formation in the FTSE100 and will be waiting for the break down.
Whilst oversold stochastics could promote further right shoulder development, the eventual break will likely target 6400/50 as profit-taking pressure increases.
Would Victor be a seller?
Intraday top in place?Rotating lower with falling momentum.
Daily charts are also unwinding, suggesting profit-taking and a sell-into-strength strategy.
Focus expected to turn to Fib supports within 2160/80~
SShort
More Before Less Central Bank Stimulus To Run Economies Hot 2017Central banks are (again) helping bulls by keeping the stimulus active until they see higher inflation - according to rumors and speculation of the last three days, ahead of the next ECB meeting this Thursday, October 20, 2016, where Mario Draghi might surprise the market to the upside again, after the reaction to the last meeting was a falling stock market.
This could mean that we might get a very boring low volatility sideways choppy trending market in the next months until maybe even the end of January 2017, as shown on the chart. If these trend lines hold, the next move would be up, therefore a long to at least 2150 is the next logical step in this calm market scenario, if the low of October 13, 2016 holds as key support, producing higher lows as result in the days ahead. The upper end of this projected move higher could end at resistance around 2169-2171, which is the 2. long target after 2150.
Long entry: 2125-2130
1. Target: 2150
2. Target: 2170
Stop Loss: 2120
1. Reward: 20 points
2. Reward: 40 points
Risk: 10 points (from 2130)
The news:
"Draghi Seen Embracing More Before Less 'QE' as Inflation Edges Up"
www.bloomberg.com
Seventy-eight percent of the 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from October. 7-14 forecast the ECB will announce fresh stimulus, and nine in ten of those say it will happen in December at the earliest.
There is a common perception that WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath, perhaps one of the most well-connected journalists at the Federal Reserve. Here is his last article for the Wall Street Journal:
"Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time" (by Jon Hilsenrath)
www.wsj.com
(here a link without a pay wall) www.morningstar.com
P.S The "S&P 500" close of Friday, October 14 shows a lot of bullish divergence on the mainstream indicators (RSI, Stochastic, CCI) and the "S&P 500" bounced back from outside the standard deviation as shown by the Bollinger Band. Therefore there is still some chance left for the bulls to turn this sinking ship around during this outlined potential sideways trend.
Long
Loonie H1 - wait for pullback to ICEIt seems we had more complex distribution schematic than expected. After FOMC USDCAD is going down. Strategy would be to wait for pullback to ICE and if "no demand" or upthrust, take a short.
Short
Short
Distribution on USDJPY H1USDJPY came back to distribution line (ICE). It made false breakout. I expect to move down to about 100.
Short
USDJPY bottom of range test complete now for the topUSDJPY the bottom of the trading range was tested. A buyers entered the market with high volumes overwhelming the sellers. Now the top of the trading range should be tested. The 'TDI is also defining a trading range. So I will be looking long until the 'TDI reaches the top of its range to go short again.
Long
S&P 500 - Distribution - short (potential)Seeing some decent distribution here, the breaks on this move up have been applied. There's signs of weakening momentum up to monthly...
That said just cause the breaks have been applied doesn't mean we're about to stop just yet. Might keep on grinding for a bit more. Likely more room on the downside than the the upside tho.
Will be on the lookout for short opportunities. Main target for an eventual short would be the support that allowed this move up. Partial profit taking at the high tf/ long term levels on the way down.
Short
Explaining fractals within fractals. 15 min. vs. 5 minute charts15 minute and 5 minute charts are really low timeframes already. Especially for swing traders so let me be clear about the fact that higher timeframe and lower timeframe are to be seen as relative terms here.
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We can see the following happening:
- in the 15min timeframe there's a clear accumulation going on.
- There's a run up towards old resistance and an old bearish orderblock (which I've not indicated)
- There's a smart money reversal
Then the interesting stuff happens.
- Because of the initial drop down from the smart money reversal, the 5 minute timeframe shows an optimal entry for a buy. So there's some accumulation of long orders happening.
- The lower timeframe makes a run towards resistance, accumulates there and then goes higher to form another high.
- The lower timeframe also creates a smart money reversal
- A lower timeframe low risk sell (which is also the same for the higher timeframe as this would have been the entire consolidation at the top there)
- We can see price drop with certainty, moving away from the consolidation there
- A very small consolidation forming distribution for the 5 minute chart and then
- Another drop down to arrive at the new distribution/re-accumulation zone for the smaller timeframe.
This is the important part.
Normally the 5 minute timeframe would continue stacking long orders here, but because of the higher timeframe premise, they should not.
- We can clearly see that the smaller timeframe distribution zone is actually the 1st distribution zone for the larger timeframe.
- Then another drop occurs and the larger timeframe arrived at it's destination. Presumably trapping or stopping out 5 minute chart traders.
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Both buyers and sellers can be right within both bullish and bearish markets. This is only to show why one side of the market tends to make a mistake opposite to another. Note: this serves for my own training purposes, again setting in stone whatever I've learned from the ICT.
Education
Accumulation Reversal Distribution on EURUSDI wanted to take a moment and train myself into recognizing the ICT accumulation / reversal / distribution. We can see this pattern come back to us on many occasions but this one is particularly easy to spot and so I'll happily take this chance to set this in stone for later reference.
Inside fractals
We have got buy and sell fractals generally consisting of:
Initial consolidation/accumulation
Run towards support/resistance
SM reversal
Low risk buy/sell
Redistribution or Re-accumulation
Important notes:
Fractals can occur within fractals
Marketmaker sellsetups can take place within larger buysetups and vice versa
It does not necessarily have to have the same amount of 'steps'
Worse even, it can happen that the normal re-accumulation, which you'd expect to happen, will not take place. This is often due to the larger timeframe premise, you should have been aware of in the first place.
The larger timeframes are dominant to smaller ones.
