The dollar softens as weak data boosts Fed rate-cut expectations
According to ADP data, US companies laid off an average of 11,250 employees per week in October, reaffirming how quickly labor market conditions have softened over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for a second straight month to 98.2 (prev. 98.9, cons. 98.3), marking the lowest level since April’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The NFIB noted that the government shutdown and tariffs have weighed on business sales.
The dollar may stay range-bound, awaiting fresh price catalysts between hopes for a shutdown resolution and further Fed rate cuts.
DXY briefly tested the ascending channel's lower bound before rebounding slightly. The index remains between both EMAs, suggesting a potential extension of the consolidation trend.
If DXY closes above EMA21, the index may advance toward the following resistance at 99.80.
Conversely, if DXY breaks below EMA78 and the support at 99.50, the price could fall below the channel’s lower bound.
