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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 19, 2025 EURUSDThe US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 231,000 for the week ending September 13. The latest data was lower than the initial estimate of 240,000 and lower than the previous week's figure of 264,000 (revised from 263,000). Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 1.920 million for the week ending September 6. The US dollar remains strong after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an expected rate cut on Wednesday but did not indicate that it would rush to lower borrowing costs in the coming months. The decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited as the euro (EUR) could be supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its cycle of rate cuts after the release of the latest inflation data. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank should take a “very cautious” approach given the high uncertainty. Guindos added that the current rate is adequate given inflation trends and monetary policy transmission. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Futures — Bearish Momentum Building After Fed CutGold continues to show weakness after the Fed’s 25bps rate cut. Price rejected the 1H FVG overhead and is pressing down toward yesterday’s low (3660). Key Scenarios: Bearish Case (favored): If we break and close below yesterday’s low (D-L 3660), sellers likely push toward the weekly low (WL ~3627). That move would clean up the liquidity pool and fill the H-TF imbalance. Bullish Case: Only if buyers defend the daily low and reclaim the 1H FVG with strength could we see price revisit 3710 (daily high). Momentum remains on the downside, with ADX > 25 confirming trend conditions. Watching closely for the daily low sweep and possible continuation.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Fed Cuts Rates — Gold Reacts, Watching for Follow-Through or ReThe Fed has just delivered a 25 bps rate cut, and there’s a mixed tone in the after-move: inflation still high, jobs softening, and the dot-plot shows more cuts are expected — but with divided opinions. On the chart, Gold spilled out of consolidation post-Fed, touched key support, and is now pressing back toward a 4H FVG (supply zone). Scenarios: Upside: If price pushes up toward the 4H FVG, gets rejected cleanly → potential short entry. Downside: If that rejection holds, or support breaks, expect slide toward high timeframe FVG region in 3600s. Trade with eyes open — volatility likely stays high. Support & resistance zones are critical here.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
USD Index Technical Outlook – Key Buy & Sell LevelsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading inside a clear downward channel, showing a bearish market structure. Price is hovering near 98.23, just below the key resistance zone between 98.5 – 99.2, where Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, and 0.618) also align, making it a strong supply area. As long as price remains below this zone, the bias stays bearish, with potential downside targets at 97.5 and then 96.5, in line with the channel support and Fibonacci extensions. However, if buyers manage to push above 99.2, it would signal a possible trend reversal and shift the outlook towards bullish continuation. Overall, the structure suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to face rejection near resistance and continue lower in the short term. 🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup) - 98.50 – 99.20 is a strong resistance area where price aligns with the Fibonacci retracement (0.382 – 0.618) and the upper channel trendline. - Sell Trigger: If price shows rejection (bearish candles, wicks, or reversal patterns) within this zone. 🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup) - 97.50 – 96.50 area is the channel support and also near Fibonacci extension levels. - Buy Trigger: Look for bullish confirmation (bounce, bullish engulfing, or rejection wicks). Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYShort
by SibiSh
EURUSD: Exhausting Uptrend Around 1.1930-1.2400The EUR/USD pair shows signs of losing momentum on the chart, which is expected as it is currently in the final (5th) wave of a larger wave C or 3. The RSI indicates a second consecutive bearish divergence, but the uptrend could continue for a while. The price is likely to reach at least 1.1930, which is the level where wave C equals wave A, for symmetry. The blue box highlights the target area based on the Fibonacci sequence. It starts at 1.1930 and peaks around 1.2400, where wave 5 of wave C is projected to cover 61.8% of the distance from wave 1 to wave 3. We’re not predicting the reversal point yet; we’ll let the market reveal it in due time. Wishing us all lucky trades!
by aibek
Gold Pauses Ahead of FOMC – Big Move Loading?Gold has been consolidating just below its all-time highs as traders await the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow. Key levels on my chart: Resistance: ATH 3737.5 → 3749.8 (DH) Support: 3715.2 (WH) → 3711.6 (DL) If the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than expected, Gold could break higher and run liquidity above 3750. On the flip side, a smaller cut or hawkish tone could give the dollar strength, driving Gold lower — first target 3700 → 3680. I’m staying cautious during Asia and London, expecting chop until NY session. My focus will be on how price reacts after the announcement — that’s where the cleaner opportunities should come. Patience is key here — the real move is still loading.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Dollar Index (DXY) – Watching Both Sides LiquidityOn the daily timeframe, we can clearly identify liquidity resting on both sides of the chart: Relative equal lows acting as sell-side liquidity. Low-resistance highs representing buy-side liquidity. From my perspective, the main draw on liquidity remains the sell-side lows. However, before targeting that area, price may first reach higher to grab the buy-side liquidity. Once this liquidity is collected, I expect a potential shift in momentum and a move to the downside. 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌 🔎 DYOR 💡Wait for the update!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by VahidTradingCR
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 16, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is gaining support against other currencies thanks to comments from the European Central Bank (ECB). European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that interest rates in the eurozone are at a good level, adding that risks of inflation remain prevalent. Schnabel said growth is likely to exceed potential as domestic demand offsets the decline in exports. ECB board member Peter Kazimir said on Monday that policy should not be adjusted due to “minor deviations” from the inflation target, while warning of the risks of rising inflation. Kazimir added that interest rates had been brought to a neutral level. The EUR/USD rose as the US dollar (USD) weakened on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting on Wednesday. Markets also see the likelihood of a more significant 50 basis point cut as low, while anticipating continued policy easing through 2026 to counter the risk of recession. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1805, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1860
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold (MGC) – Watching 3725 Key Decision Point Ahead of CPIGold surged yesterday with aggressive bullish momentum, tagging into the 3725 BFH level. Price is consolidating just beneath it as we head into Tuesday’s London and NY sessions. Upside: Break and hold above 3725 opens the door toward 3750+. Downside: Rejection at 3725 + breakdown through 3700 could shift structure, with targets at 3680 and 3662. CPI & Unemployment data in the NY session may provide the catalyst. 📌 Patience until reaction confirms — 3725 is the key battleground.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
15
Head and Shoulders Pattern on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Overview of the Idea (as shown in the chart) The chart illustrates a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern forming on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This classical technical pattern signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Left Shoulder: The first peak followed by a pullback. Head: A higher peak, forming the top of the pattern. Right Shoulder: A lower peak compared to the head, roughly equal to the left shoulder. Neckline: A support line connecting the lows between the shoulders. Once broken, it indicates potential bearish continuation. The chart highlights: A breakout below the neckline. A retest of the neckline (common in H&S setups, where old support becomes resistance). A projected downside target aligned with the height of the head-to-neckline move. Detailed Analysis 1. Pattern Identification The H&S is clear: higher high (Head) flanked by two lower highs (Shoulders). The neckline is slightly ascending, but once broken, it signals sellers stepping in. 2. Breakout Confirmation Price broke below the neckline, confirming the bearish pattern. The retest at ~97.62 shows rejection, strengthening the bearish outlook. 3. Bearish Projection Technical rule: the expected downside target is approximately equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, projected downwards from the breakout point. The chart projects a move toward 97.25, which aligns with the marked support zone. Timing The projection points to Monday, 15/09/25, suggesting this bearish move may unfold in the upcoming trading sessions. Walkthrough Thought Process Think of the market like a battle between buyers and sellers: The buyers pushed price higher (Head), but then failed to sustain strength at the right shoulder. When price breaks the neckline, it shows sellers are gaining control. The retest confirms that what was once support (neckline) has now become resistance. This setup gives traders confidence to enter a short (sell) trade, targeting the projected downside. Trade Idea Entry : After retest rejection around 97.62. Target (TP) : 97.25 (support zone based on H&S projection). Stop Loss (SL) : Above the right shoulder at 97.80 (to protect if pattern fails).
TVC:DXYShort
by MacLongloi
1
DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend . US indexes to be released this week: Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow PPI m/m: Tomorrow Core CPI m/m: Thursday CPI m/m: Thursday CPI y/y: Thursday Unemployment Claims: Thursday Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys . I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced. Second Target: $98.56 Stop Loss(SL): $96.997 Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
27
Gold Setting Up for Weekly Low Sweep – Watching 3650sGold has stalled out at the highs this week and is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong 2-week bullish run. Thursday’s close left us hovering just above key support in the 3650s. For Friday, I’m watching for a break and close below yesterday’s low on the 1H chart. If we get that confirmation, I’ll be looking for continuation shorts targeting Monday’s low and potentially the 8HR FVG around 3600–3620 to close out the week. If bulls defend this level again, then the range may extend — but the cleaner move is down into untested imbalances below. This sets up Friday as a key day: ✅ Break yesterday’s low = downside liquidity run in play ❌ Hold support again = chop/range into next week
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold Stalls Ahead of CPI – Pullback Setup Loading?Gold has been aggressively bullish for the past two weeks, but yesterday showed the first signs of exhaustion. Price stalled under the daily high ($3,690), leaving liquidity below untouched. With CPI and unemployment claims scheduled during the NY session, we may see the dollar strengthen — providing the catalyst for a deeper pullback on Gold. Key Zones I’m watching: Upside Liquidity: Sweep above $3,690 (D-H) could serve as a trap before reversing lower. Downside Targets: $3,654–$3,652 (D-L/W-H confluence) $3,600 node $3,530–$3,550 (H4/8H FVG rebalancing zone) If this week is to stay bullish overall, a proper low for the week forming inside the H4/8H FVG would set the stage for continuation higher. For now, patience until price makes its move around these zones.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
3
EURUSD: London Session Bullish BiasOn the higher timeframe, I maintain a bullish outlook, with the BSL identified as the draw on liquidity. This serves as the main directional bias. Shifting to the 1H timeframe, price action shows that Monday’s low was purged, which often signals liquidity grab. Following this purge, the market reacted bullishly, suggesting potential accumulation of buy-side pressure. In addition, the formation of a +FVG (Fair Value Gap) adds another layer of confluence supporting the bullish scenario. This imbalance aligns with the expectation of further upward continuation. With these factors combined, I consider the 50% retracement of the previous leg as the initial target for this move. 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌 🔎 DYOR 💡Wait for the update!
Long
by VahidTradingCR
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is fluctuating within a narrow trading range against the US dollar during Wednesday's Asian session amid mixed fundamental signals. Expectations that domestic political uncertainty could give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) more reason to slow down interest rate hikes, coupled with optimistic market sentiment, are undermining the yen's position as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the overnight recovery of the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday helped the USD/JPY pair recover from its daily decline and return closer to its August low. However, yen bears seem reluctant to make aggressive bets amid a growing understanding that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course. On the contrary, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to resume its cycle of rate cuts next week, which could hinder the growth of the US dollar. In addition, diverging expectations regarding the policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed could play into the hands of the lower-yielding Japanese yen and help limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also prefer to refrain from action ahead of Wednesday's US producer price index (PPI) release. Trade recommendation: SELL 147.20, SL 147.65, TP 146.00
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Brief Analysis of US DXYDXY is trading around 97.70, while trending within a descending channel formation, and holding above 97.60 (Fib support 0.236), with resistance seen near 97.80–98.00 zone. The RSI is rising and holding near 46, showing mild recovery momentum but not yet strong enough for a breakout. However, prices have taken a support at the middle Bollinger band, which might lift the dollar a little higher. Price action suggests consolidation inside the descending channel; intraday bias stays neutral-to-bullish above 97.60. PPI data stronger than expected could lift DXY toward 98.35–98.50, while weaker data may pressure it back toward 97.30. The 10Y auction outcome will also guide direction — higher yields can support the dollar, while softer demand may weigh on it.
FXOPEN:DXY
by Nadia_farhat