Dollar Index at Critical Support — Is a Big USD Rally Coming?Today I want to analyze the DXY index( TVC:DXY ) for you, which is one of the key indices in the financial markets.
At the moment, the DXY index is moving near a support zone($98.85-$98.50), Monthly Support (1) level, and the 21_SMA(Weekly).
In addition, the DXY has been trending inside a descending channel for roughly the past 13 trading days.
The main question is whether the DXY can break below this confluence of support levels or not.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can identify a Morning Star candlestick reversal pattern, and there is also a clear bullish Regular Divergence (RD+) between the last two lows.
Moreover, the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10 ) appears bullish in my view — and its upward movement can potentially support a rise in the DXY as well.
From my perspective, the best currency pairs to capitalize on a stronger USD are USDJPY( FX:USDJPY ) and EURUSD( FX:EURUSD ).
We should also keep in mind that several important US economic indicators will be released this week, which could significantly impact market direction. So be extra cautious with your positions, especially during data releases:
JOLTS Job Openings➡️09 December
Federal Funds Rate➡️10 December
FOMC Statement➡️10 December
FOMC Press Conference➡️10 December
Unemployment Claims➡️11 December
I expect that once the DXY breaks above the upper line of the descending channel, it could at least move toward one of the higher Fibonacci levels.
Do you think the U.S. interest rate will be cut this week?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌U.S. Dollar index Analysis (DXYUSD), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
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Dollarindex
DXY: The Dollar Isn’t Done Talking YetDXY, I’ve been staring at the Dollar long enough to notice something important: this isn’t a random bounce. After months of digestion and frustration on both sides of the trade, DXY looks like it’s quietly regaining control. The tape is no longer just reacting to single data prints. It’s responding to a broader realization that the Fed may cut rates, but not in a way that collapses the dollar story. This chart feels less like noise and more like a setup.
Current Bias
Bullish, with confirmation pending.
DXY has spent most of the year consolidating after a deep pullback and now appears to be breaking higher from a rising structure. Momentum is rebuilding as the market reassesses how aggressive Fed easing will really be.
Key Fundamental Drivers
The dominant driver remains relative monetary policy expectations. While the Fed is expected to cut, markets are increasingly dialing back the idea of rapid or deep easing. US growth is slowing but holding up better than Europe and parts of Asia. Labor markets are softening but not collapsing, keeping the Fed cautious rather than urgent. This supports USD resilience.
At the same time, other major central banks look more constrained. The ECB and BoE face weaker growth backdrops, and the BoJ’s normalization path remains slow and fragile, which limits sustained USD downside versus JPY.
Macro Context
Interest rate differentials still matter. Even with Fed cuts priced, US real yields remain relatively attractive. Global growth remains uneven, with Europe stagnating, China stabilizing but not accelerating, and the US still outperforming at the margin.
Commodity flows also matter here. A firm dollar tends to weigh on commodities and commodity-linked currencies, reinforcing feedback loops into AUD, NZD, and CAD. Geopolitical risk remains a background bid for USD, especially as markets remain sensitive to trade policy, Middle East tensions, and shifting US election rhetoric.
Primary Risk to the Trend
The biggest risk is overconfidence in the Fed staying behind the curve. A sharp deterioration in US labor data or a sudden drop in inflation could force the Fed into a faster easing cycle, undermining the yield support for USD and invalidating the bullish structure.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
The next cluster of US inflation data, labor market releases, and Fed communication is critical. Markets are watching for confirmation that cuts will be measured, not panicked. Any clear Fed pushback against aggressive easing expectations would strongly support this DXY breakout.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
DXY is a leader.
When DXY moves with intent, it drags the rest of FX with it. Strength here typically pressures EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and gold, while reinforcing downside risks in USDJPY pullbacks and risk-sensitive assets. If DXY follows through, expect confirmation across USD pairs rather than divergence.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
98.20–98.50 (structure support and trend retention zone)
96.20 (major downside invalidation level)
Resistance Levels:
100.00 (psychological and structural resistance)
102.00–103.00 (measured move resistance if momentum accelerates)
Stop Loss (SL):
Below 96.20 on a daily close, which would signal a failed structure and broader USD weakness.
Take Profit (TP):
First objective near 102.00, with extended upside toward the prior highs near 109–110 if macro conditions align.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
The bias for DXY is cautiously bullish. The structure suggests accumulation rather than distribution, supported by relative growth resilience, steady real yields, and a Fed that remains careful, not desperate, to cut. The key risk is a sudden shift toward aggressive Fed easing driven by weak inflation or labor data. Until that happens, dips look corrective rather than trend-ending. As a leader asset, DXY’s next move is likely to ripple across major FX pairs, commodities, and risk sentiment. If this breakout holds, the dollar conversation is far from over.
Dollar Index Bearish Setup: Dead Cat Bounce Then Collapse. The weekly chart shows a strong bearish signal, with a bearish engulfing candle forming and a confirmed double top structure on the daily chart. Price has already broken below the neckline of this double top, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Currently, price is consolidating just below the 50 EMA. With RSI deeply in oversold territory and stochastic oscillators near cycle lows, a short-term relief bounce is likely. This bounce could push price toward the 99.032 level, just below the 21 EMA, which now acts as a key resistance zone.
On the daily timeframe, the 9 EMA has crossed below the 21 EMA, reinforcing a bearish trend and suggesting that upward moves will face strong resistance. More importantly, the weekly stochastics have already crossed down, and the weekly MACD is showing clear signs of momentum loss.
In conclusion, after a potential short-term bounce to fill the gap on the 4-hour chart—where a death cross is also forming—the broader expectation is for a significant bearish continuation in the Dollar Index.
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U.S. Dollar Index Gearing Up for a Powerful Upswing!💵 DXY — U.S. Dollar Index | Profit Pathway Setup (Swing Trade)
🧭 Bias: Bullish (Confirmed Setup)
📈 Market Type: Index (USD Strength Focus)
🧠 Strategy Style: Layered Limit Entry with SMA Pullback + Triangular MA Breakout
🎯 Trade Plan Breakdown
📊 Setup Insight:
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has confirmed a bullish momentum as price reclaims above the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and breaks through the Triangular Moving Average (TMA) resistance zone — signaling potential continuation strength for the dollar.
📥 Entry Zone (Layering Strategy):
My “Thief Strategy” approach uses multiple limit layers for precision stacking entries:
Buy Limit Layers: 99.00 → 99.50 → 100.00
(You can extend or adjust layers based on your own conviction and risk appetite.)
🛑 Stop Loss:
My Thief SL sits near the recent lower low wick for structure protection → 98.50
💬 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — I’m not recommending my exact SL.
You manage your own risk — make money, take money, your call.
🎯 Target (Take Profit):
The moving average line is acting like a police barricade — strong resistance area, potential overbought trap zone. Be smart and escape with profits near 102.00.
💬 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — TP is flexible.
Lock profits where you’re satisfied; don’t let greed arrest your gains. 🚓💰
🌐 Correlated Market Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated pairs & assets for confirmation signals or divergence clues:
💶 $EUR/USD → Inverse correlation (DXY up → EUR/USD down)
$XAU/USD (Gold) → Often moves opposite to USD strength
💷 FX:GBPUSD → Mirrors EUR/USD volatility when DXY surges
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD → Weakens when DXY strengthens due to liquidity shifts
💹 FX:USDJPY → Supports bullish dollar narrative if yield spreads widen
These pairs can help you validate sentiment and timing entries better — especially during London & New York sessions when DXY liquidity peaks.
🧩 Technical Key Points
✅ SMA pullback confirms bullish continuation zone
🔺 Triangular Moving Average breakout shows renewed strength
🧱 99.00–100.00 acts as accumulation floor
🚨 102.00 remains resistance barricade zone (potential trap)
⏰ Best observed during London/NY overlap for volatility cues
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy — just for fun and education. Not financial advice. Trade wisely and manage risk like a pro.
#DXY #USDollarIndex #ForexTrading #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas #PriceAction #SMAStrategy #MovingAverages #CurrencyTrading #DollarStrength #ForexSignals #TradingStrategy #MarketAnalysis #ChartPatterns #BullishSetup #RiskManagement #ForexCommunity #TradingView #DXYAnalysis
DXY rebounded slightly due to the expectation more hawkish FedThe US dollar rebounded after the recent weakness due to increased odds of a rate hike at tomorrow's meeting.
Meanwhile, today's US October JOLTS data may offer further clarity on the labor market following the delayed October NFP. Markets are anticipating the JOTLS to fall to 7.2 million, which could contract the job openings per unemployment rate under the 1.0 level and add further concern about the labor market, despite a low unemployment rate.
DXY breached 99.00 and EMA21. The index remains between the bearish EMAs, indicating potential consolidation.
If DXY breaks below 99.00 again, the index could retreat toward the next support at 98.65.
Conversely, if the DXY moves above the EMA78, the index may advance toward the next resistance level at 99.45.
DXY Bullish Outlook | SMA Pullback + Breakout Confirmation🚀 DXY BULLISH SWING SETUP: SMA PULLBACK CONFIRMED! | Key Levels & Correlated Pairs 📈
🎯 Trade Idea: Bullish Swing on DXY (US Dollar Index)
📊 Asset: TVC:DXY | Timeframe: 4H & Daily
🔥 Strategy: Simple Moving Average Pullback + Resistance Breakout Confirmation
⚡ ENTRY PLAN:
Trigger: Break & close above 99.900 resistance
Ideal Entry: Any pullback toward 99.700-99.850 after breakout
Confirmation: Price holding above SMA support (adjust to your preferred period)
🛑 STOP LOSS (RISK MANAGEMENT):
Reference level: 99.300
👑 Dear Trading Family (Thief OGs) – This is MY protective stop. PLEASE adjust based on YOUR risk tolerance and strategy. I am not responsible for your SL/TP decisions. Manage your own risk!
✅ TAKE PROFIT TARGETS:
Primary TP: 100.900 (Strong confluence: SuperTrend ATR resistance + overbought zone potential trap)
Partial take profits advised along the way
🧠 Reminder: You can take money at YOUR own discretion. Not financial advice!
📈 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH & CORRELATIONS:
FX:EURUSD – Inversely correlated (~57.6% weight in DXY). DXY up = EURUSD down.
FX:GBPUSD – Negative correlation. Strong dollar pushes GBPUSD lower.
FX:USDJPY – Positive correlation. DXY bullish = USDJPY often rises.
OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) – Typically inverse to dollar strength.
TVC:USOIL (Crude) – Dollar up can pressure oil prices (denominated in USD).
🔍 KEY POINTS:
Watch for USD strength across majors to confirm DXY momentum
If DXY rallies, expect EURUSD & GBPUSD to show sell setups
Always correlate with Fed policy expectations & US economic data
📌 DISCLAIMER:
This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. You are responsible for your own decisions.
Let’s get this bread! 🍞 If you find this helpful, drop a like 👍, follow for more ideas, and share your thoughts in the comments!
#DXY #USDollar #TradingSetup #SwingTrading #ForexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingView #FX #RiskManagement #ThiefOGs
how dollar index look like now!!This is a long-term structural analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
While no analyst can predict the exact future path of price, studying major structures, liquidity zones, long-term channels, and timing cycles can provide a meaningful macro perspective.
In this chart I highlight:
• Key liquidity pools and distribution/accumulation zones
• Long-term ascending and descending channels
• Major Fibonacci confluence zones
• Structural breaks and mitigation blocks
• Possible multi–year corrective cycles
• Time cycles that have previously aligned with major turning points
The overall idea suggests that DXY may be entering a macro inflection point, where both bullish and bearish scenarios become highly sensitive to structural confirmation.
A deeper correction remains possible if price loses the mid–range support zone, while a reclaim of upper structure could extend the bullish cycle first.
This is not a prediction — it’s a roadmap.
Price will choose its own path, but having a broader structural view helps traders understand where major reactions may occur over the next several years.
US Dollar Index - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH1 - Strong bearish move.
No opposite signs.
Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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NOV.30,2025 ANALYSIS ON THE DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)DXY is at crossroads with a monthly indecision Candlestick. Glass ceiling tops of 99.978 is still hanging, However the week still closed with a higher low defended on the 200EMA on the 4H timeframe with a bullish kicker reversal two candle pattern. Considering the weekly candle close, there is real risks to the downside, My 21 period RSI is below 50 on 4H confirms real downside risk too . My bias on the dollar index is still to the upside but however if you trade the long side apply tight stop loss using the 200EMA on 4H or the 35EMA on daily chart as the decision yard. If price loses these EMAs then short side is confirmed for 97.148 target. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the daily and weekly chart so upside potential is equally weighted to the downside double tops target. Therefore prepared for both scenarios this coming week.
Thank you for supporting my publications with your boosts and comments. Best of forex trading everybody. Cheers
DXY bottomed and is starting the new Bullish Leg.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 01 Low last week even broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since March 05 2025.
Technically, that is confirmation for the long-term continuation of the uptrend. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect DXY to start the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up as yesterday it hits its bottom.
There is a high symmetry between the last three Bullish Legs but since the 'weakest' one has been +2.17%, we have a Target at 101.100. As you can see, that would even test the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is the natural long-term Resistance of the market.
Notice also the 1D RSI bounce on its 2-month Support Zone as well as the just formed Bullish Cross on the 4H MACD. All perfectly aligned with bottom formations signaling buy opportunities.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DXY FREE SIGNAL|LONG|
✅DXY has tapped the higher-timeframe demand and formed bullish displacement after clearing sell-side liquidity. A refined entry inside the mitigation zone aligns with algo order-flow targeting the buy-side liquidity above.
———————————
Entry: 99.773
Stop Loss: 99.641
Take Profit: 99.967
Time Frame: 2H
———————————
LONG🚀
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DXY Tests Key Resistance Amid Improving MomentumThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing a significant resistance zone around 100.30 after a steady climb from its October lows. Price has reclaimed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is now approaching the 200-day SMA near 99.85, a level that has acted as dynamic resistance for most of the year.
The RSI currently reads around 64, indicating improving bullish momentum but not yet overbought territory. The MACD histogram remains slightly positive, with the signal and MACD lines close to crossing, suggesting continued short-term strength but the potential for consolidation near resistance.
If price sustains above the 100.00–100.30 region, it would mark the first notable break above the 200-day SMA since early 2024 — a potentially constructive technical shift. However, repeated rejections from this level could keep the broader structure range-bound between 96.40 and 102.00.
Overall, the chart shows improving momentum within a long-term neutral framework. Confirmation above the 200-day SMA would be required to validate a sustained bullish bias.
-MW
FractalCycles at Work: Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)This chart highlights the dominant 62-period cycle currently steering short-term swings in the U.S. Dollar Index. Price has been respecting the rhythm of this cycle, with recent highs and lows forming close to the projected turning points.
At the moment, DXY is trading near a potential cycle peak, and with the next downward phase approaching, the probability of a short-term pullback increases. Momentum indicators are also softening, offering further confirmation of cycle pressure beginning to turn.
Takeaway:
The 62-period cycle continues to provide reliable structure for timing DXY’s shorter-term movements. If the pattern persists, traders should be prepared for a potential downswing as the next cycle trough unfolds.
DXY Bullish Continuation -Buy Zone & Breakout PlanDXY is still holding its bullish structure moving inside the rising channel and currently ranging just under the weak high near 100.50. As long as price stays above the 100.00 support zone this consolidation looks like a pause before another push up toward 100.80–101.00. A deeper dip inside the range is possible but overall momentum remains bullish unless price breaks below the channel support.
Fundamentally the dollar is supported by recent mixed but stable US data, NFP remaining solid-unemployment slightly higher and wage growth cooling moderately combined with a Federal Reserve stance that is not ready for quick rate cuts. This keeps short-term USD sentiment mildly positive. Risk off flows and steady Treasury yields also help maintain dollar strength.
Overall, both technical structure and fundamentals support a bullish continuation after the current range completes its liquidity grab.
Buy Zone:
The ideal buy zone is 99.95 – 100.05 which aligns with the lower boundary of the consolidation range, the mid-channel support and the previous demand area. This is where price is expected to dip, grab liquidity and form a bullish reaction.
Buy Trigger Area:
The buy trigger is a bullish rejection or bullish candle close from 100.00 or a break and retest of 100.20–100.25 from inside the range. A clean bounce from the lower range or a retest reclaim signals the continuation toward 100.50 and then 100.80.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2)2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2) 📉💵
📆 Feb 25 was just the beginning — and now we’ve got confirmation.
DXY couldn’t hold above structure, and the drop is on. What began as a quiet theme is turning into the macro headline:
The King Dollar is softening... on purpose.
🔍 Chart Context
• 🔴 Rejection at 112.3 — clean and brutal**
• 🔁 100.95 now flipped into resistance**
• 📉 Heading toward Target: 94.37** — the long-term structure low
The structure hasn’t changed — only the velocity has.
This isn’t a flash move. This is policy-meets-price.
🧨 Fundamentals: Trump’s Soft Dollar Doctrine
Back on January 23, Trump told the world exactly what he wanted:
“I’d like to see interest rates come down… a lot.”
“Oil down, prices down, inflation gone — and then rates down.”
Translation?
💵 A weaker dollar to fuel exports, ease debt loads, and juice the real economy.**
This is not weakness — it’s a recalibration.
Add in:
• Tariffs + labor policy inflation
• Pressure on Powell
• Geopolitical chess moves (Putin negotiations, Middle East detente)
→ and you’ve got a coordinated softening playbook.
📉 What’s Next?
• 🔹 Break 98 = Target 94.37 opens wide
• 🧱 If 94 cracks, we’ll re-assess — but for now, that’s the magnet
• DXY needs a miracle to reclaim strength without Fed resistance easing
2025 could be the year the dollar gets normalized by force — not finesse.
🔄 Perspective Shift 🔄
This isn’t dollar death — it’s dollar diplomacy.
Strong enough to hold global weight, soft enough to boost Main Street.
You think this isn’t coordinated? Look again. 📡
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
First episode:
⚠️ I’m not a financial advisor — just a philosopher with better chart vision than 99% of the noise out there. What I share is my view, not a signal. You trade? You’re responsible. Just don’t blame me when I’m right again.
PRE-NY CONDITIONS Dollar is pressing into a major cross-asset high, recognized across FX, yields, and risk assets. London kept DXY inside a tight structure with no clean breakout, which turns this level into stop-time: the point where liquidity pauses and the market decides whether the move extends or fades.
Front-end yields remain firm, anchoring the Dollar’s support. The 10-year is indecisive, offering no confirmation and keeping the curve without a clear macro signal. ES holds its overnight gap on Nvidia strength, but volatility near 21 keeps risk fragile. Gold remains neutral, reflecting a balanced but uncertain safety tone into the U.S. session.
DXY: Testing a major high; range-bound after London; structure stretched but supported by 2Y strength.
US10Y: Indecisive daily structure; long end is not confirming Dollar strength; macro tone remains unclear.
US2Y: Firm short-end repricing; maintains policy pressure and supports Dollar tone.
ES: Holding gap; risk appetite supported but shallow; volatility still limiting follow-through.
Gold: Neutral safety tone; neither attracting nor rejecting flows; reflects cross-asset indecision.
VIX: Near 21; elevated volatility keeps conditions reactive and reduces trend reliability.
Cross-asset alignment remains mixed. The Dollar is firm, but only the front end confirms it. Long-end yields hesitate. ES shows controlled appetite, but volatility denies conviction. Gold confirms the indecision. Liquidity conditions lean cautious, shaped more by bond market signals than by clean macro drivers.
Pillar Focus: PEM — Confirmation Entries
Today's environment aligns with PEM logic. A stretched Dollar at a major level, split yields, and elevated volatility mean operators should rely on confirmation-based triggers, shorter engagements, and strict timing. High-frequency windows (NY open → 10:00 → London fix) carry more clarity than directional assumptions.
Follow higher-timeframe direction
Ignore noise from earlier sessions
Wait for structure + flow alignment
Act only on confirmation
Summary: NY opens into a cautious environment defined by a stretched Dollar, mixed yields, and elevated volatility — a clear PEM day.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
The Dollar’s Climb: A Trend With More Fuel in the Tank?The USDOLLAR daily chart is in a clear uptrend, defined by a sequence of higher troughs and higher peaks. The EMAs are aligned in a bullish formation with strong angle and separation, and the RSI remains above 50 - signalling positive underlying momentum for the greenback.
Market participants positioned themselves well early on, with the first higher peak after a higher trough forming at point 1, even before Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back - in unusually blunt terms - against a December rate cut during his 29 October press conference.
Since then, the dollar has been on a tear. A break below the most recent higher trough would warrant a reassessment, but for now the USDOLLAR continues to present a firm uptrend.
Understanding Dollar Structure and DeliveryCurrent price action is unfolding inside the Intermediate Dealing Range, defined by the November 5 high and the October 17 low. DXY is trading in the premium of its 20 day IPDA range, with equal highs sitting just under the 0.25 level as my first draw on liquidity and a Daily SIBI resting right above it. If price reacts at those equal highs, fine, that is expected. But if it keeps pressing higher, the Daily SIBI is the next draw, no question. And if price shifts with displacement from either of those levels, I am looking straight to the relative equal lows first, then 98.563 below the 0.75 level. With NFP coming up, the fundamentals can blow through structure, but if the dollar shows weakness, price is reaching into discount. That is the only direction it can go.
If you want to understand the delivery here, study this chart from August 1. Watch how price cleans up inefficiencies, hunts liquidity, and moves between premium and discount with every shift in order flow. Every displacement points to the next target. The PD arrays along the path are not decoration, they are the roadmap. I have marked the August 1 high and the September 18 low as the larger dealing range, and the November 5 high with the October 17 low as the Intermediate Dealing Range. That is the framework. That is where price is operating right now. If you want to understand the current delivery, this is the range you need to focus on.
Study the chart and you will see exactly why price moved the way it did. Yes, it is hindsight, and that is the whole point. Understanding past delivery helps you see future price action with real precision. The levels that got targeted here were not random. They were the logical draws. Learn that, and you stop guessing. The same delivery repeats again and again.
TRADINGVIEW — NY SESSION UPDATELondon pushed the Dollar into 99.591, but DXY remains inside yesterday’s structure.
Compression unchanged.
Yields softer into NY — 10Y −1.11%, 2Y −1.27% — defensive tone with no directional commitment.
ES reclaimed the 6655.50 London low and trades back inside its range.
Gold steady above 4019.57.
Volatility stable.
NY opens into a tight Dollar and softer yields.
First expansion sets the tone.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.






















