System Hopping - The Hidden Cost of Self-DoubtNOTE – This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I’m taking the time here to post as an effort to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so that you are able to execute your own trading system as best you can from a place of calm, patience and confidence.
Here’s a scenario:
You take a loss.
Then another.
Suddenly, the system you trusted yesterday feels broken today.
On this chart of Solana, imagine you were trading a breakout system. You may have had four false breaks that didn’t really follow through before the market finally broke higher. When do you give up on the idea or the system altogether?
How self-doubt shows up:
You start thinking: “Maybe another system would have worked better…”
You switch, tweak, reinvent mid-cycle.
You lose patience with the method you worked so hard to design.
You are in danger of system hopping.
Emotional side:
Self-doubt often disguises itself as “rational analysis,” but underneath it’s uncertainty, frustration, even a tightening in the chest. You hesitate to pull the trigger, second-guess your plan, or overcorrect with a brand-new approach.
It’s rarely your system that’s broken.
It’s the lack of trust in yourself to see it through.
Shift your mindset
Every system has drawdowns. If you abandon yours too soon, you never let it prove itself. So the task really is to find a way to collect the data without blowing out / over extending yourself.
Practical tips … the How:
Write down your system rules and keep them visible, so you trade what’s planned, not what you feel.
Track results over a proper sample size (50–100 trades) before judging performance.
Make sure you are position sizing sensibly. This is an art in and of itself. The key being - do not risk what you can not afford on any one trade / series of trades. Paper trade if you need to to start with just to collect the data on the system.
Journal emotions separately from trade outcomes — so you see when doubt is about you, not the system.
Set a “no system changes” rule during drawdowns. Only review at scheduled intervals.
Closing thought:
Your edge doesn’t come from finding the perfect system.
It comes from trusting a good one long enough to let it work.
Doubt
BITCOIN - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOWHey there,
Thank you for supporting this idea with likes and make sure you follow me here on TV.
so I think everyone in this space saw what happend yesterday. The biggest percentage and point drop in Bitcoin in all of its history.
A rounded 40%decline in 1 day. An incredible number for any trader.
There are now some key questions to be asked:
What really valuable asset is able to drop 40% in one day?
What could have caused this spike and will it happen again?
Is this the end of Bitcoin?
To all of these questions, I sadly cannot anwser. You have to decide for yourself wether or not you still see value in Bitcoin.
It is very significant that Bitcoin broke the bottom growth of curve of the data science models and has not yet managed to come
back up to those.
While I do think that this is the final capitulation some people like Tone Vays have been waiting for and that the bottom is now in,
I too am troubled and have doubts in the real value of Bitcoin, if it is able to be manipulated by this degree.
Of course no fundementals have changed and Bitcoin is still the same as yesterday and the day befor, I do have doubts, wether
or not people will accept it as a store of value, if even after 10 years of existence, Bitcoin just now had its sharpest and steepest decline in 1 day.
So there you go. Technicals are not really applying here imo, since this is beyond any comprehensible movement.
Now is the time to BUY THE DIP. Even if I have doubts now, I have learned that it often is best to buy BTC when everyone is doubtful.
Oh and btw, there is now a 3DAY 9 buy of the TI Indicator Sequential, so this could be your time to buy.
Cheers,
Konrad
Bitcoin - A Visit Into The Monthly From my last post to now, what did you observe? If we look into the lower timeframes, we notice one thing:
- we get scared.
- we read headlines.
- we cloud our judgment.
The most successful and rewarding trades of all are always done on a macro scale. With this simple fact we must learn to be patient and trust in the macro timeframes.
IMO , this is a long. A monthly open long as we head towards our next monthly resistance.
That's all for now.
Another Total Market Cap Update #2Update:
A few more lines added in to show direction
Down to 190 Billion then...
Up to 212 Billion...
Most likely a dump to follow,
if we break up from 212 then we may be seeing a reversal on the market.
Hard to speculate where we will go from here.
I still seeing the details laid out in my last update panning out,
refer to my last post for relevant data.
EURUSD: PerspectivesI don't know which way EURUSD is going - as my analysis are time frame dependent and trend-dependent. Plus my crystal ball was broken many years ago, beyond repair! :))
In this screencast, I've reviewed from Weekly down to 15 min time frames. I'm in too much doubt. When in that state of mind, I'm happy to stay out and be left behind to miss loadsah equity or profit.
Recently for example I bailed out of a long position on Oil - and thankfully I did so. If my probability estimates in my own mind ain't right, I'll stay out or get out of any trading setup. I don't do coulda-woulda-shouldah. :))
EURAUD - staying out for the moment. EURAUD is a pair that from my experience has many surprises. This is just based on long experience of understanding the 'personality' of this pair.
I also know that there is a probable move south on stockmarkets which the Aussie tends to follow. The EURO took a beating last week, so punters are likely to try for a 'good deal'. So if both happen, EURAUD has some probability of moving north on my favoured time frames.
Whilst on the weekly (which I don't trade), the picture suggests probability of travel south, on my favoured lower time frames it looks doubtful.
I cannot find a sound entry position, so I'm happy to be left behind if the markets moves further south. Missing out is fine, cuz I'd have lost nothing! And in a 'game' where 80-90% of traders lose money, if I have missed and not lost anything then I'm winning! :))