XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (16.08.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3318
2nd Support – 3308
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DXY
Gold Futures | H4 FVG Test as Asian Session OpensGold Futures completely filled the Daily FVG, so I’ve removed it and adjusted the chart to focus on the H4 FVG zone.
Price is now pressing deeper inside this imbalance, with 3350 as the key level to watch:
Hold above → potential accumulation and rotation higher.
Break below → sweep into 3348 liquidity and possibly lower.
Asian session may provide the first reaction, but I’ll be watching closely for London to confirm whether we hold or break this zone.
GOLD - BULLISH TO $3,734 (1H UPDATE)Scenario 1: Waiting for an ‘Impulse Wave’ to break above $3,380 then I’ll look to enter further buys upon Wave 2 correction.
Scenario 2: Keep an eye out for potential resistance around $3,360 zone, as there’s been a lot of bearish rejections in that zone for daily candles. If this zone holds for sellers, we could enter another sell & target $3,200📉
DXY - Silent, Structure in Compression, Destiny in Expansion. ⊣
⟁ DXY / U.S. Dollar Currency Index - TVC - (CHART: 1D) - (Aug 19, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: 98.035.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D):
✴️ Note: The DXY (TVC) does not provide native volume data; therefore, flow-based indicators (OBV, MFI) are substituted by ADX (14) to quantify trend strength.
▦ EMA9 - $98.139:
∴ The current price ($98.035) is positioned below the EMA9 - ($98.139), affirming short-term pressure from sellers;
∴ The slope of the EMA9 is flat to slightly downward, indicating the loss of bullish traction in the most immediate timeframe;
∴ The EMA9 is located beneath both the EMA21 and the EMA50, confirming the presence of a “bearish stacking” alignment.
✴️ Conclusion: The micro-trend remains subdued under short-term resistance. The immediate ceiling is defined at ~98.14, and failure to close above reinforces continuous seller control.
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▦ EMA21 - $98.221:
∴ The price remains below the EMA21, which represents tactical control by sellers in the intermediate horizon;
∴ The fact that EMA9 < EMA21 demonstrates that rebound attempts will likely fail beneath 98.22;
∴ The EMA21 is in direct confluence with the Bollinger Band midline, magnifying the importance of 98.22 as a structural pivot.
✴️ Conclusion: The 98.22 zone is the primary tactical battleground; daily closure above would reduce immediate bearish pressure and open short-term relief potential.
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▦ EMA50 - $98.477:
∴ The price resides below EMA50, and EMA21 is positioned below EMA50, both confirming the persistence of a downward-leaning intermediate trend;
∴ The EMA50 itself is sloping gently downward, acting as a supply zone between $98.45 / $98.50;
∴ Rejections have occurred repeatedly below the $98.5 region, validating this level as the medium-term structural ceiling.
✴️ Conclusion: The $98.45 / $98.50 range is the second barrier; only a sustained close above this threshold neutralizes the existing bearish framework.
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▦ BB (21, 2) - $96.815 / $98.221 / $99.628:
∴ Current price oscillates around the midline ($98.22) but is positioned slightly below, keeping price action inside the lower quadrant of the bands;
∴ Bandwidth is approximately 2.81 points (~2.9% of the midline), which signals suppressed volatility and relative compression;
∴ The upper band at $99.63 and the lower band at $96.82 establish the immediate operational box.
✴️ Conclusion: A compression regime dominates; the probability of false breakouts increases as long as ADX remains below threshold levels.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) - RSI 47.75 / Signal 48.17:
∴ The RSI remains below the neutral 50 line, maintaining a neutral-to-bearish bias;
∴ RSI is positioned beneath its signal line, reinforcing waning momentum;
∴ No oversold or overbought extremes are present, leaving ample room for mean-reversion moves in either direction;
∴ The RSI lost its bullish inclination after the early-August peak, revealing that bullish momentum has dissipated.
✴️ Conclusion: Relative strength is fragile and biased downward; pressure persists, though without signs of exhaustion.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - MACD Line: −0.085 | Signal: −0.082 | Spread ≈ −0.003:
∴ Both MACD line and Signal line remain below zero, sustaining the negative macro momentum regime;
∴ The spread between MACD and Signal line is marginally negative (−0.003), illustrating momentum compression and indecision;
∴ The histogram bars are shallow, suggesting the likelihood of sideways “chop” until a decisive expansion occurs;
∴ No evidence yet of either bullish or bearish acceleration; instead, momentum is locked in equilibrium.
✴️ Conclusion: Residual bearish momentum persists, but without traction. A valid directional impulse requires expansion of the spread.
⊢
▦ ADX (14) - 13.22:
∴ ADX at 13.22 is significantly below the 20 threshold, confirming a non-trending market;
∴ Under low volatility and low ADX conditions, breakouts tend to fail or reverse, producing whipsaw environments;
∴ Without ADX expansion, directional signals from EMAs, RSI, or MACD lack confirmation.
✴️ Conclusion: The trend is weak; consolidation dominates. Breakouts require ADX above 20 for validation.
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🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ The structural configuration of the moving averages (Price < EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50) defines a layered bearish stacking, emphasizing that control remains under sellers until the price successfully reclaims successive thresholds;
∴ The triple resistance crown ($98.14 / $98.22 / $98.50) represents the immediate fortress overhead. Until pierced, rallies remain corrective rather than structural;
∴ The Bollinger Band compression in combination with ADX = 13.22 reflects a regime of latent instability: volatility is contracted, energy is being stored, and the market is poised for a sharp directional move once equilibrium breaks;
∴ Mapping of levels:
Support zones: $97.94 (recent intraday floor) -> $96.82 (lower Bollinger band);
Resistance zones: $98.22 (BB midline + EMA21 pivot) -> $98.45 / $98.50 (EMA50 zone) -> $99.63 (BB upper).
∴ Trigger mechanics (Daily):
Bullish relief scenario: A daily close above $98.22 exposes a test of $98.45 / $98.50. A confirmed structural shift requires closure above $98.50 with simultaneous ADX rising above 20, projecting extension toward $98.80 -> $99.63;
Bearish continuation scenario: A breakdown below $97.94 expands the downside toward $96.82. Acceleration requires concurrent Bollinger Band expansion + ADX increase, validating momentum.
∴ Cross-asset implication (BTC/USD): A DXY trapped beneath $98.50 with ADX under 18 provides tactical relief for risk assets - (Bitcoin, equities). Conversely, a reclaim above $98.50 coupled with rising ADX would exert renewed pressure on Bitcoin and global risk sentiment.
✴️ Conclusion:
∴ The DXY is operating in a compression regime with light bearish bias, encased beneath the triple-layered resistance of $98.22 and $98.50;
∴ Until the index secures a daily close above $98.50 supported by a strengthening ADX, the prevailing outlook remains range-to-down, targeting $97.94 and potentially $96.82;
∴ Should the crown of resistance be pierced with confirmed directional strength, the Dollar Index would advance toward $98.80 / $99.63, transitioning the macro background toward “risk-off” and imposing significant headwinds on Bitcoin and correlated assets.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025):
∴ The Dollar Index remains imprisoned beneath its triple crown of resistance ($98.14 -> $98.22 -> $98.50). Each layer functions not as mere numbers, but as thresholds of control - the fortress where sellers guard the path forward;
∴ Momentum structures (RSI at $47.75, MACD compressed below zero, ADX at $13.22) whisper of weak conviction, a battlefield where neither camp advances decisively. Volatility compresses, energy coils. The silence of the bands is not peace; it is the breath before release.
∴ Supports lie at $97.94 and $96.82 - the fragile floor where weakness exposes the Index to further descent. Resistances culminate in the $99.63 upper band - the bastion to be conquered should strength return.
✴️ Philosophical Seal: Like the Stoic who tests virtue in adversity, the DXY now tests resolve in compression. Its stillness is deceptive - for beneath equilibrium, forces accumulate. The wise trader, like the Stoic, does not chase the noise of indecision; he prepares, unmoved, for the inevitable expansion.
⊢
✦ Structure - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025):
∴ Bearish Stacking Alignment: Price $98.035 resides below EMA9 $98.139, which is below EMA21 $98.221, both beneath EMA50 $98.477. The moving averages align in descending order, sealing short-, mid-, and intermediate-term control under sellers;
∴ Compression Regime: Bollinger Bands narrowed to $96.815 / $99.628, with midline at $98.221. Volatility is contracted, reflecting equilibrium. The silence before expansion governs this phase;
∴ Momentum Exhaustion: RSI at 47.75 and MACD line at −0.085 with signal −0.082 indicate weakening drive, locked in indecision. ADX 13.22 confirms absence of a dominant directional force.
∴ Critical Thresholds:
• Support: $97.94 -> $96.82;
• Resistance: $98.22 -> $98.45–$98.50 -> $99.63;
These levels form the sacred geometry of the Dollar’s battlefield.
✴️ Structural Seal: The DXY is architected in a descending yet compressed formation - a fortress of resistance above, fragile floors below. Until ADX rises and one side seizes momentum, the Index drifts in suspended balance, storing potential for decisive rupture.
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· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 98.14, struggling near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.33, where strong resistance has capped further upside.
The RSI shows hidden bearish divergence, signaling potential weakness despite the recent bounce.
Price action remains within a broader downtrend channel, and repeated failures to sustain above 98.30 indicate fading bullish momentum.
Immediate support is seen near 98.00, any bearish break out will lead the prices towards 97.79 (Fib 0.786), followed by 97.50, which could attract sellers if broken.
On the upside, only a decisive break above 98.33–98.70 would shift intraday sentiment bullish toward 99.08.
For today, the bias leans bearish as long as DXY trades below 98.30, with intraday traders likely eyeing short setups on rejection patterns targeting the lower supports.
Everything’s Aligned: USDJPY Buy Setup Locked and LoadedHey friends 👋
I’ve prepared a fresh USDJPY analysis for you.
I’m planning to open a buy position around 146.631 or 146.451, targeting the 147.700 level.
Also, today’s upcoming U.S. economic data will play a key role from a fundamental analysis perspective.
Every single like you send is my biggest source of motivation to keep sharing these insights. Huge thanks to everyone supporting me 🙏
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between:
Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3
Support @ 97.75 - 97.6
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1
Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
Gold Futures | Accumulation in Play – Watching for Manipulation Gold Futures are currently sitting in the Accumulation phase of an AMD sequence. Price is ranging just above the Daily/H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360) after rejecting supply at 3387–3394.
Here’s what I’m watching:
Accumulation: Current consolidation between 3368–3387.
Manipulation: A clean sweep of yesterday’s low (3368) would complete this phase.
Distribution: If manipulation plays out, I’ll look for price to rotate higher, targeting 3387 → 3404 and potentially higher levels.
⚖️ Bias: Waiting for liquidity run before positioning long.
No need to rush — the sweep is the confirmation. Until then, patient observation.
DXY: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 97.668 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 97.805 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Are U.S. Dollar Bears getting exhausted?Still holding on to my EUR/USD short positions since late June/early July and it’s been quite a game of patience at this point but as I have been analyzing the U.S. Dollar for the past few months, from a purely technical analysis perspective, I’m currently still seeing the U.S. Dollar potentially carving out a bottom here and make a run to re-visit the 100 - 102 price zone.
I know markets are highly anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cute in September but with inflation still sticking around, it may not be such a sure thing just yet.
All eyeballs and ears will be on tap for Powell’s speech on Friday.
Technical analysis signals:
• Descending Broadening/Expanding Wedge (Bullish Pattern)
• MACD Histogram showing a sign of potential bearish exhaustion
Gold XAUUSD Intra-Day Setup 18.08.2025Price is currently trading within a descending channel. A key breakout zone is forming.
If price breaks above 3355/58 and retests successfully, it opens room toward the 3381 level.
Conversely, if price breaks below 3345/48 and retests, downside continuation may occur toward the 3325 area.
Additional View:
Momentum shows early signs of bullish exhaustion after touching the channel top, but overall, the structure still favors trend continuation inside the channel until a decisive breakout is confirmed. Hence, confirmation after breakout/retest is crucial before entry.
Trading Signals:
Buy Setup: Above 3355/58 with retest confirmation → Target 3381, Stop-Loss below 3344
Sell Setup: Below 3345/48 with retest confirmation → Target 3325, Stop-Loss above 3355.
USDZAR - Forecast, Outlook and Market WatchHello fellow Market Watchers ☕
Today I'll take a top-view look at the USDZAR chart. And since I am in South Africa, this pair is of particular interest to me.
Now recently, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and lifted metals tariffs to 25%. Additionally, citrus, nuts, grapes and wine have been subjected to 30% duties since Aug. 7.
There is no doubt that in the short term, this will cause ripple effects throughout the economy but in the long run, South Africa will find new trading partners - this is how trade works. This will likely extend to Asian markets. The priority is to export more to China, where duty-free access has already been secured for five types of fruit (unsure which fruits these are).
South Africa will continue to strengthen ties with other countries to lessen reliance on the US for exports. Therefore, this is merely a short term hurdle.
From the monthly perspective, we see a clear peak. A double top marks the price where sellers are ready to dominate:
Although we've had two bearish micro-cycles (lasting just over two years and a year respectively), the multiyear trend has been bullish - almost "up only" since August 2011.
July US inflation cooled, so markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Futures point to a strong chance of a 25 bps cut, and the dollar has lost some momentum. When rate-cut odds rise and inflation-adjusted US bond yields fall, higher-beta currencies like the rand often firm up.
However on a bullish note for the Rand, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the repo to 7.00% in July and said it aims at the bottom of the 3–6% target band, while June CPI printed 3.0%. This is optimistic news for the Rand, and further supports a decline on the chart.
What to watch next
• Fed path into September. Base case: a 25 bps cut.
• DXY (the US dollar index). Softer DXY tends to help ZAR.
• US real yields from the Treasury’s par real yield curve. Drifting lower is rand-friendly.
• Powell at Jackson Hole. A tougher tone on inflation could cap rand gains.
10 Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security - Lower US real yields usually lift demand for higher-yielding EM assets, leading to Rand strengthening.
DXY - A softer DXY = less broad USD strength, ZAR increases/strengthens
Gold and Platinum - If these increase, that supports SA's exports and likely helps the Rand considering the export volume. It should be noted that platinum gains will be limited by the new metal tariff at 25% if exporting to the US . In 2023, South Africa exported approximately $16.2 billion worth of platinum globally. Of this, about $3.42 billion went to the US. That works out to roughly 21% of South Africa’s total platinum exports being destined for the U.S.
I asked my friend GPT to put it in a table and got this helpful result:
So to summarize:
As of today (18 Aug 2025), markets still lean toward a Fed rate cut in September, with odds around the mid-80s, which has taken some heat out of the dollar and kept real Treasury yields anchored near ~1.9%—a mix that’s usually rand-friendly.
Locally, SARB’s July move left the repo at 7.00% while June CPI printed 3.0%, so South Africa still offers positive real carry. Firm gold prices and subdued equity volatility also help sentiment. The main offset is trade policy risk, with the new 30% US tariff on many South African imports clouding the export outlook and current account. Net-net, if US data stay calm into Jackson Hole, the bias tilts to a softer USD against ZAR.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Continue to Rise?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If it moves upwards, we can look for a short-term position to sell Bitcoin from the specified supply zone.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Momentum in the digital assets market continues to accelerate, with Ethereum leading the charge. The cryptocurrency has surged from $1,500 in April to $4,300, marking its highest level since December 2021 and standing only 12.5% below its all-time high of $4,800. Historically, Ethereum has served as a leading indicator for the broader altcoin market, and its recent strength has fueled speculative activity across other higher-risk assets.
This capital rotation is also reflected in the Bitcoin Dominance index, which measures Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market. Over the past two months, Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen from 65% to 59%, signaling a continued flow of capital into riskier assets.
Last week, Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, announced that Bitcoin seized by the federal government would form the core of the nation’s strategic Bitcoin reserves, established under President Trump’s March executive order. He further noted that the Treasury is exploring budget-neutral options to acquire additional Bitcoin, aligning with the administration’s commitment to making the United States the “world’s Bitcoin superpower.” He clarified that no new cryptocurrencies would be purchased, as the reserves will rely solely on confiscated assets.
Meanwhile, the balance held by Accumulator wallets—addresses that exclusively buy Bitcoin and never sell—has reached 308,150 BTC, the highest level ever recorded. Continued accumulation by these wallets implies a tightening supply in circulation and is often seen as the beginning of a new bullish phase in the market.
In parallel, Bit Digital, a Nasdaq-listed company, reported a net profit in Q2 of this year despite a decline in overall revenue. This shift came as the company focused on its new treasury and Ethereum-based staking strategy.
According to its quarterly report, Bit Digital generated $25.7 million in total revenue during the period, representing an 11.7% year-over-year decline. The company attributed the decrease primarily to reduced income from digital asset mining, as operations shifted toward treasury and Ethereum staking initiatives, though part of the drop was offset by growth in other business segments.
During the same quarter, Bit Digital posted $14.9 million in net profit, equal to $0.07 per share, compared to a net loss of $12 million in the same period last year. CEO Sam Tabar described the quarter as “the beginning of the company’s transformation into a specialized Ethereum treasury and staking platform.” In June, Bit Digital formally announced its Ethereum strategy and began the gradual phase-out of its Bitcoin mining operations.
According to Yahoo Finance data, Bit Digital’s stock fell 0.63% on Thursday to $3.19. However, despite the daily decline, the stock has risen 8.1% over the past five days and is up 8.9% year-to-date.
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.27
1st Support: 94.66
1st Support: 94.66Risk Warning:
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DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4H chart remains under pressure, trading near 97.71 and holding below the key resistance zone of 98.20–98.30, aligned with the 20 SMA (middle Bollinger band) and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (97.78), signaling a firm bearish bias.
Price action might continue to respect the descending trend, with recent candles showing rejection from the upper boundary and pointing toward a possible retest of 97.50–97.10 support levels. However, it will be crucial for prices to breach the fib level 0.786 and sustain lower.
Bollinger Bands are moderately compressed, suggesting controlled volatility, while RSI at 42 indicates weak momentum with a hidden bearish divergence (prices making lower highs and RSI making constant highs), reinforcing downside potential.
Unless the index reclaims 98.30 on strong buying, intraday traders may look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting 97.50 and then 97.10.
With no major data releases today, technical levels are likely to drive moves, and continued dollar weakness could support risk assets like equities and commodities, particularly gold and emerging market currencies.
Key Levels Set: Where Will Gold End This Race?Good morning, my friends,
Gold is currently moving sideways. Let me tell you this: if gold breaks above the 3363 level and closes a candle there, the next target will be 3380 or even 3390.
However, if gold breaks below 3330 with a candle close, then the target will shift to 3310 or 3300.
Right now, gold is in a tight squeeze — bulls and bears are battling it out. Let’s see who wins and who puts the final stamp on this move. We’ll all witness it together.
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USD/CAD - Ascending Triangle (18.08.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3774
2nd Support – 1.3755
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Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GC Futures – Will Bulls Defend the Daily/H4 FVG Overlap?Gold Futures opened the week pressing directly into a stacked Daily + H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360). Price action is sitting just above this level, making it the key battleground for the week.
Support: 3350 (FVG low), 3332 liquidity sweep
Resistance: 3377 → 3394 (prior D-H), 3451 (M-H)
Scenarios: Bounce off demand could target 3380–3394, with a reclaim opening 3420–3450. Failure here points to deeper liquidity at 3332.
Asian session may set the early range, but real direction likely comes during London/NY killzones. Watching closely for reaction inside the FVG overlap.
DXY:Key Levels and Political Events: Preparing for the Next MoveThe latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that there have been negligible changes in the behavior of commercial traders regarding the DXY. Meanwhile, retail traders have significantly reduced their long positions, cutting about 30% of their holdings to the short side. In contrast, non-commercial traders have increased their long positions by approximately 11.14%, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment: retailers appear to be leaning toward shorting the dollar, while non-commercials might be starting to accumulate long positions.
Over the past week, the price rebounded at our daily demand zone, which could signal a potential continuation of the upward trend in the coming week. However, the market's next move will depend heavily on how it opens after the weekend and the market's reaction to the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting.
What are your thoughts on these developments?
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