Explaining the Lower Timeframe Function and Its Role in Trading Introduction
Candlesticks on higher timeframes summarize long periods of trading activity, but they hide the internal balance of buying and selling. A daily candle, for instance, may show only a strong close, while in reality buyers and sellers may have fought much more evenly. To uncover this hidden structure, Pine Script offers the requestUpAndDownVolume() function, which retrieves up-volume, down-volume, and delta from a chosen lower timeframe (LTF).
Function in Practice
By applying this function, traders can measure how much of a move was supported by genuine buying pressure and how much came from selling pressure. The function works across timeframes: when analyzing a daily chart, one can select a one-minute or one-second LTF to see how the volume was distributed within each daily bar . This approach reveals details that are invisible on the higher timeframe alone.
Helper for Data Coverage
Lower-timeframe data comes with strict limitations. A one-second chart may only cover a few hours of history, while a one-minute chart can stretch much further back. To make this limitation transparent, a helper was implemented in our code: it shows explicitly how far the available LTF data extends . Instead of assuming full coverage, the trader knows the exact portion of the higher bar that is represented.
//══════════════
// Volume — Lower TF Up/Down
//══════════════
int global_volume_period = input.int(20, minval=1, title="Global Volume Period", tooltip="Shared lookback for ALL volume calculations (e.g., averages/sums).", group=grpVolume)
bool use_custom_tf_input = input.bool(true, "Use custom lower timeframe", tooltip="Override the automatically chosen lower timeframe for volume calculations.", group=grpVolume)
string custom_tf_input = input.timeframe("1", "Lower timeframe", tooltip="Lower timeframe used for up/down volume calculations.", group=grpVolume)
import TradingView/ta/10 as tvta
resolve_lower_tf(bool useCustom, string customTF) =>
useCustom ? customTF :
timeframe.isseconds ? "1S" :
timeframe.isintraday ? "1" :
timeframe.isdaily ? "5" : "60"
get_up_down_volume(string lowerTf) =>
= tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lowerTf)
var float upVolume = na
var float downVolume = na
var float deltaVolume = na
string lower_tf = resolve_lower_tf(use_custom_tf_input, custom_tf_input)
= get_up_down_volume(lower_tf)
upVolume := u_tmp
downVolume := d_tmp
deltaVolume := dl_tmp
//──── LTF coverage counter — counts chart bars with valid Up/Down (non-na) 〔Hazel-lite〕
var int ltf_total_bars = 0
var int last_valid_bar_index = na // new: remember the bar_index of the last valid LTF bar
if not na(deltaVolume)
ltf_total_bars += 1
last_valid_bar_index := bar_index
int ltf_safe_window = ltf_total_bars
var label ltf_cov_label = na // label handle for the “coverage” marker
Use in Strategy Development
Because both the main function and the helper for data coverage have been implemented in our work, we use the Hazel-nut BB Volume strategy here as a practical example to illustrate the subject. This strategy serves only as a framework to show how lower-timeframe volume analysis affects higher-timeframe charts. In the following sections, several charts will be presented and briefly explained to demonstrate these effects in practice.
In this example, the daily chart is used as the main timeframe, while a one-second lower timeframe (LTF) has been applied to examine the internal volume distribution. The helper clearly indicates that only 59 one-second bars are available for this daily candle. This is critical, because it shows the analysis is based on a partial window of intraday data rather than a full day.
The up/down volume split reveals that buyers accounted for about 1.957 million units versus sellers with 1.874 million, producing a positive delta of roughly +83,727. In percentage terms, buyers held a slight edge (≈51%), while sellers were close behind (≈49%). This near balance demonstrates how the daily candle’s bullish appearance was built on only a modest dominance by buyers.
By presenting both the margin values (e.g., upper band margin 13.61%) and the absolute money flow, the chart connects higher-timeframe Bollinger Band context with the micro-timeframe order flow. The annotation “Up/Down data valid starting here” reinforces the importance of the helper: it alerts the user that valid LTF volume coverage begins from a specific point, preventing misinterpretation of missing data.
In short, this chart illustrates how choosing a very fine LTF (1 second) can reveal subtle buyer–seller dynamics, while at the same time highlighting the limitation of short data availability. It is a practical case of the principle described earlier—lower-timeframe insight enriches higher-timeframe context, but only within the boundary of available bars.
Analysis with One-Minute LTF
In this chart, the daily timeframe remains the base, but the lower timeframe (LTF) has been shifted to one minute. The helper indicates that data coverage extends across 353 daily bars, a much deeper historical window than in the one-second example. This means we can evaluate buyer/seller balance over nearly a full year of daily candles rather than just a short slice of history.
The up/down split shows buyers at ≈2.019M and sellers at ≈1.812M, producing a positive delta of +206,223. Here, buyers hold about 52.7%, compared to sellers at 47.3%. This stronger bias toward buyers contrasts with the previous chart, where the one-second LTF produced only a slim delta of +83,727 and ratios closer to 51%/49%.
Comparison with the One-Second LTF Chart
Data coverage: 1s gave 59 daily bars of usable history; 1m extends that to 353 bars.
Delta magnitude: 1s produced a modest delta (+83k), reflecting very fine-grained noise; 1m smooths those micro-fluctuations into a larger, clearer delta (+206k).
Interpretation: The 1s chart highlighted short-term balance, almost evenly split. The 1m chart, backed by longer history, paints a more decisive picture of buyer strength.
Key Takeaway
This comparison underscores the trade-off: the lower the LTF, the higher the detail but the shorter the history; the higher the LTF, the broader the historical coverage but at the cost of microscopic precision. The helper function bridges this gap by making the coverage explicit, ensuring traders know exactly what their analysis is built on.
Impact of TradingView Plan Levels
Another factor shaping the use of this function is the user’s access to data. TradingView accounts differ in how much intraday history they provide and which intervals are unlocked.
◉ On the free plan, the smallest available interval is one minute, with a few months of intraday history.
◉ Paid plans unlock second-based charts, but even then, history is measured in hours or days, not months.
◉ Higher tiers extend the number of bars that can be loaded per chart, which becomes relevant when pulling large volumes of lower-timeframe data into higher-timeframe studies
Conclusion
With requestUpAndDownVolume(), it becomes possible to see how each symbol behaves internally across different timeframes. The helper function makes clear where the data stops, preventing misinterpretation. By applying this setup within strategies like Hazel-nut BB Volume, one can demonstrate how changing the lower timeframe directly alters the picture seen on higher charts. In this way, the function is not just a technical option but a bridge between detail and context.
Community ideas
ANFIBO | BTCUSD Analysis – Weekly Trading PlanHi guys! It's me, Anfibo. My plan last week gave us a good profit selling from 118,000 USD to 115,000 USD.
And over the past weekend, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD consolidated in a sideways range, consistently holding above key support. However, with the opening of the new week’s Daily candle, the market decisively broke down through this support zone, signaling that selling pressure is now taking clearer control.
From a technical perspective, the next critical support levels to monitor are:
• $113,000
• $111,000
• $109,500
Around the $110,000 region, I view this as a pivotal area to consider initiating spot entries or building larger long-term positions. This zone is not only a technically strong support level but also carries significant psychological weight for institutional and large-scale flows.
Imo, in the short term, BTC may still attempt a retest of the $115,000 level before resuming its downward trend, depending on lower-timeframe reactions. This creates an opportunity for traders to capitalize on corrective moves.
>>> My Trading Plan for the Week:
(1) SELL SCALP:
– ENTRY: around 115,000
– SL: 117,000
– TP1: 113,000
– TP2: 110,000
(2) BUY SETUP:
- ENTRY: 109,000 - 111,000
- SL: 107,000
- TP1: 117,500
- TP2: 122,000
- TP3: 128,000
This strategy is designed for short-term trades, taking advantage of volatility within the current range. For long-term investors, patience will be key—waiting for BTC to approach $110,000 or lower provides a strategic opportunity to restructure portfolios and scale into positions at more favorable prices.
👉 Conclusion: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has broken out of its weekend consolidation and is now entering a fresh leg down. Short-term traders should look to sell corrective bounces, while long-term investors should focus on accumulation opportunities near $110,000 - a level that could serve as a “strategic entry” for the upcoming cycle.
WISH EVERYONE A NEW WEEK FULL OF ENERGY! ;)
NIKE BREAKDOWN (NKE)...POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITYHey hey Tradingview family!!! Joseph here AKA JosePips! Just wanted to come on this week and do a breakdown on the company Nike & what I see technically potentially happening next on this stock! In this video you will get a in depth breakdown of
1. Overall price action structure/context
2. Momentum & understanding how momentum can be used in your trading
3. Supply & Demand principles
4. Technical confluence & how to really use indicators to build your edge in trading
So I hope you guys enjoy this video and breakdown!! Boost this post & follow my page for more content!
Cheers!
Oracle's surge is a bull market warningOracle has become the latest torch bearer of this market’s fever. A sharp, double-digit jump in days. Not because of numbers on a balance sheet, but because of mood. Sentiment is running wild, and traders are piling in.
These are the signs of caution experienced traders take during bull markets.
This market doesn’t need fundamentals. It needs stories. Oracle provided one, AI, cloud infrastructure, and firming whispers of a TikTok tie-up. That’s all it takes in a market already priced for perfection. The hotter the tape, the more dramatic the reactions.
The narrative is seductive. Media and enterprise tech converging. Old-guard software reborn as a cloud giant. These are big, glossy ideas. But when valuations are stretched, stories become more dangerous than compelling.
We’ve seen this play out before. In hot markets, price runs ahead of reality. Crowds cheer the breakout, analysts upgrade, and traders convince themselves this time is different. Then something shifts. Sentiment cracks. The same names that soared, collapse first.
Oracle is not the problem. It’s the signal. A sign that markets are running on fumes of optimism. The Nasdaq is back to trading at extreme multiples. Liquidity is abundant, and money is chasing flash. When that music stops, the hangover will be sharp.
Caution is the trade here. Oracle’s rally is not a testament to strength. It’s evidence of a market too eager to believe its own stories.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Oscar Health (OSCR) – Risk/Reward Setup Worth WatchingI’m tracking a long setup on NYSE:OSCR after a strong recovery trend that has been quietly building since the summer. It’s carving out a technical structure that offers a clean risk/reward.
Company Context
Oscar Health is a tech-driven health insurance company that’s been rebuilding its story in 2024–2025. With a focus on digital-first healthcare plans and partnerships, it’s been reducing losses and narrowing its path toward profitability. Investors are beginning to treat it less like a speculative health-tech play and more like a managed care turnaround. That shift alone can fuel momentum as institutions re-rate the name.
Technical Breakdown
Entry Zone: Around $18.90, just above the daily pivot (P: $18.51) and prior breakout support at $18.66.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is holding above the cloud, with the leading span showing a bullish tilt. This suggests trend support into October if buyers defend current levels.
Moving Averages: OSCR is trading above its 50-day average and bouncing off the short-term Kijun line — a healthy pullback/retest dynamic.
R Levels: Resistance to watch sits at R2 ($20.67) and R3 ($23.49). Targeting these aligns with a potential 23% upside move.
Stop Placement: My risk is anchored near $16.80–$17.00 (just below R1/Pivot cluster and cloud support). That’s roughly -11%.
Reward: Upside target $23.49–$24.00 gives ~+23%. That’s a 2.1:1 reward-to-risk profile.
Why It’s Interesting
OSCR has been building higher lows since May, which is constructive in a volatile market.
The current consolidation looks like a platform for continuation, especially if it can break and hold above $20.
Liquidity is decent for a mid-cap, and options flow has been showing unusual activity recently (call side).
Risks to Monitor
As an insurance stock, OSCR is tied to regulatory headlines and policy changes.
Earnings volatility can be sharp — a stop discipline is key here.
Broader market sentiment could swamp this setup if risk-off flows dominate.
My Take:
This isn’t a “bet the farm” play, but OSCR gives traders a very tradable setup: clear support, well-defined stop, and room to run into the low $20s. As long as it holds above the cloud and the $18 pivot zone, I like the long bias.
MARKET PROFILE🔸🔸🔸 1 - Back to the Roots: Learn the Theory, Improve Signal 🔸🔸🔸
Becoming a successful trader starts with building a strong foundation of knowledge. This foundation comes from time spent in the markets and real experience. While the basic idea is easy to understand, actually building this solid base takes effort and patience.
Trading experience, careful observation, focusing on what truly matters, and understanding basic technical principles are all key parts of this foundation. Patience and awareness also play a big role in making it stronger.
Without this foundation, it’s difficult to trade well over the long term. But when you have it, you can think more clearly, make better decisions, and trust your own judgment.
In today’s fast-paced markets, some traders try to skip this step, only to realize later how important it really is. The good news is, it’s never too late to start building this foundation—you just need to dedicate the time and be ready to put in the work.
If you grasp the lessons from these experiences, you’ll see that they apply directly to your own journey as a trader. Along the way, you might also discover fresh insights about how markets really work today.
🔸🔸🔸 2 - Peter Steidlmayer 🔸🔸🔸
Peter Steidlmayer is the creator of Market Profile, a powerful tool that traders today often use through Market Profile analysis. What makes his idea special is that it didn’t come only from books or classrooms — it was shaped by his life experiences growing up on a ranch in California.
From an early age, Peter learned important lessons about value and fairness from his father. On their family ranch, his father would only sell crops when the price was fair, aiming for a reasonable profit instead of chasing big gains. If prices were too low, he’d hold on to the grain rather than selling at a loss. When buying, whether groceries or used farm equipment, his father was careful not to overpay, always seeking a fair deal. This taught Peter that value is not just a price number — it’s a relationship between price, time, and need. Paying too much means time works against you; paying less means time is on your side.
Later in college, Peter took a statistics course where he learned about the bell curve—a way to find patterns in what might look like random data. This gave him the idea that market prices also have a “fair value” area, where most trading happens, and areas away from this center that create opportunities.
He combined this with the ideas of value investing from Graham and Dodd and the concept of the “minimum trend” by John Schultz, which measures the smallest meaningful price movements. By grouping these price movements, Peter saw that prices tend to cluster around a fair value zone, forming a bell curve shape. This became the foundation for Market Profile and later, Volume Profile.
🔸🔸🔸 3 - Market Profile 🔸🔸🔸
Before we dive into Market Profile, it’s important to understand Peter Steidlmayer’s journey and how he developed Market Profile.
Through his research and testing different systems, Peter noticed that although some methods worked at first, none gave consistent or reliable results over time. The most important insight he gained was that all these approaches tried to predict future market prices — something he came to believe is impossible.
Instead of guessing where prices might go, Peter focused on finding value , which he called fair value . The goal of Market Profile is not to provide buy or sell signals but to help traders find where the true value lies.
Market Profile is a tool, not a trading system. To use it effectively, you need to understand its core principles, not just memorize fixed rules. Unlike simple buy/sell systems that stop working when market conditions change, Market Profile helps you see those changes as they happen and adapt your strategy accordingly.
Remember, market decisions always require your own judgment. Market Profile cannot predict the future — no tool can — but it helps you understand what is happening right now, so you can make better trading decisions.
Before we move on to interpreting Market Profile, we will first look at three key steps that will help build a clear foundation
Market Profile Graph: How the profile is drawn and what it represents
Market Profile on TradingView: How you can access and use this tool on TradingView
Anatomy of a Market Profile: Explanation of the key components
Once we cover these basics, we’ll be ready to focus on interpreting Market Profile and applying it in trading decisions.
📌 3.1 - Market Profile Graph
If you understand the basic principles behind Market Profile, you will be able to recognize key patterns easily, without getting confused by changes in how they are displayed.
To make this clear, I will draw the Market Profile for the trading session between 9:00 and 15:00. This will help you see how time and price interact at different levels during that trading session.
3.1.1 - Understanding the Letters in a Market Profile Chart
In a Market Profile chart, each letter represents a 30-minute time period during the trading day. The sequence starts with the letter A for the first half-hour (9:00–9:30), then B for the next half-hour (9:30–10:00), and continues alphabetically until the market closes.
This way, the chart shows not only which prices were traded but also exactly when they were active during the day.
3.1.2 - A Period (9:00 – 9:30)
This price level is where we start placing the letter A to represent the first 30 minutes. The trading day opens at 2685, marked by an arrow on the left side of the profile. (Shape a).
Shortly after the open, the price rises to 2690 (Shape b), so we place the letter A at 2690. Then, the price falls to 2680 (Shape c), and we add the letter A down to that level as well.
Next, the price climbs again to 2690 before settling back to 2680 (Shape d), which becomes the final price of the first half-hour. We do not add another A where one already exists.
The closing price of this period, 2680, is marked with an arrow on the right side of the profile.
(Note: Price Movement Shape in the chart is drawn to illustrate how the price moved within this 30-minute period.)
3.1.3 - B Period (9:30 – 10:00)
The second half-hour opens at 2680, so we place the letter B—which represents this time period—at that price level. Since the first column already has the letter A, we place this B in the second column (Shape a).
Then, the price drops to 2670, and we add the letter B down to this level, always filling the leftmost empty column. This period closes at 2675 (Shape b).
The price falls further to 2665, which is where the second half-hour ends. The final price of this period, 2665, is marked with an arrow on the right side of the profile (Shape c).
(Note: Price Movement Shape in the chart is drawn to illustrate how the price moved within this 30-minute period.)
3.1.4 - Completing the Market Profile for the Day (10:00-15:00)
As the day progresses, we continue placing the letters in this way. During the third half-hour (10:00–10:30), the decline continues. The market moves between 2665 and 2620, closing this period at 2640.
If we assume the drawing process is now understood from these examples, we can move to the end of the day. Throughout the session, prices move between 2695 and 2620, closing the day at 2670. At this point, we have the complete Market Profile for the day.
When we compare this type of chart with a candlestick chart, we see that both show the same basic information. However, the purpose here is not to track the exact price movement, but to see the value area created during the day.
By focusing on the value area, we can see how price and time interact.
The more time the price spends at a certain level, the more trading volume builds there. The higher the volume, the more the market sees that price as value.
Price + Time = Value
📌 3.2 - Market Profile on TradingView
Before we explore the key components of a Market Profile chart, it’s important to know how to display it on TradingView. There are two main ways to do this—either by changing the chart type to TPO or by adding it through the Indicators menu.
1. Enable TPO View from Chart Type Menu
Click on the Candles button at the top of your chart.
Select Time Price Opportunity (TPO) from the list of chart types.
2. Add Market Profile via Indicators
Click the Indicators button on the toolbar.
Go to the Technicals section and scroll to Profiles.
Choose Time Price Opportunity or Session Time Price Opportunity depending on whether you want the profile for the whole chart or for individual sessions.
📌 3.3 - Anatomy of a Market Profile
Let’s first explore the main components of a Market Profile chart—TPOs, Initial Balance, Extremes, Range Extensions, Fair Value, Unfair High, Unfair Low, and Value Areas. In this section, we’ll not only define each of them but also show how they appear on the chart for better understanding.
Key Components of a Market Profile Chart
Visualizing Components on a TradingView TPO Chart
3.3.1 - Key Components of a Market Profile Chart
Detailed explanations of each element that forms the structure of a Market Profile.
TPOs (Time Price Opportunities)
Each letter on the Market Profile chart is called a TPO (Time Price Opportunity). A TPO represents a specific price traded during a specific time period, showing both when and at what level the market was active. The sequence begins with capital letters (A, B, C, …), and once these are used up, it continues with lowercase letters (a, b, c, …) to represent later time periods.
Initial Balance
The Initial Balance marks the price range established during the first two letter time periods, usually represented by the letters A and B. It shows where the market first found a trading range and is often indicated on the left side of the profile with a vertical line.
Note:
If the letter time period is set to 15 minutes, each letter represents 15 minutes of trading, so the Initial Balance covers only the first 30 minutes in Tradingview.
In TradingView, you can use the Initial Balance (IB) range feature to define the key price range at the start of the session. By default, it covers 2 letters (A and B), but if you prefer, you can adjust the range to 3, 4, 5, or more bars to suit your analysis.
Extremes
An extreme is the activity that occurs at the very top or bottom of a price range, represented by two or more single TPO prints standing alone. It forms when the market tests a price level, then quickly rejects it and moves away, showing that the opposite side (buyers or sellers) stepped in with strength.
Extremes appear when the market rejects prices at the top or bottom of the range, leaving behind either a buying tail(single prints at the bottom) or a selling tail (single prints at the top). Visually, the value area forms the main “body” of the profile, while extremes extend outward like “tails.”
Note:
An extreme cannot occur in the last time period of the day, since there is no following trade to confirm rejection.
Range Extension
A range extension happens when the price moves beyond the initial balance (A and B TPOs). This expansion happens because longer-term traders step in with enough volume to push prices higher or lower. An upside extension signals active buyers, while a downside extension signals active sellers. Range extensions help reveal the influence of longer-term participants and provide important context about the market’s directional bias.
Fair Value
In a Market Profile chart, the price level with the highest number of letters (TPOs) is called the fair value. This level often corresponds to the price with the highest traded volume. If the profile shows more than one fair value level, the one closest to the midpoint of the day’s trading range is selected.
Unfair High
The highest price level of a distribution where trading activity is low. It represents an “unfair” or advantageous selling area because prices moved too high for buyers to remain interested. This level often marks the top of the range.
Unfair Low
The lowest price level of a distribution where trading activity is low. It represents an “unfair” or advantageous buying area because prices moved too low for sellers to remain interested. This level often marks the bottom of the range.
Value Area
The price range where most trading activity occurs, usually about 70% of TPOs. It shows where the market accepts price as fair, with buyers and sellers actively rotating around this level. Prices above the value area are advantageous for the longer-term seller; prices below it are advantageous for the longer-term buyer. The calculation process is:
Start with the price level that has the highest volume.
If this alone doesn’t reach 70%, compare the total volume of the one price levels above with the one price levels below.
Add the larger of the one to your total.
Repeat this process until you reach about 70% of the day’s total volume.
3.3.2 - Visualizing Components on a TradingView TPO Chart
Demonstration of how these components look directly on TradingView using the TPO chart.
With the Expand Block feature, the Market Profile is shown as separate columns, where each letter is placed in its own block. This helps you clearly see which price levels were active in each 30-minute.
Shifting the letters into the empty left column serves a special purpose. Instead of focusing on the exact price movements, this view highlights the value area created during the session. It allows traders to see where the market spent the most time and built the strongest acceptance, rather than just tracking short-term fluctuations.
🔸🔸🔸 4 - Principles of Market Profile 🔸🔸🔸
Now that we have learned how to draw the profile and the key terms used, we can move on to how to read a Market Profile chart.
Market Profile is not a ready-made trading system—it is a tool designed to support your decision-making. To use it well, you need to understand the principles behind how it works. No matter how advanced a tool is, your trading decisions will always require your own judgment—Market Profile can’t replace that.
It also cannot predict the future—but then again, no one can. What it does do is give you a clear picture of the current market situation. By understanding what’s happening right now, you put yourself in a stronger position to make better, more informed decisions.
📌 4.1 - The Auction Framework
The Auction Framework explains how the market works like an auction, helping people buy and sell. When prices go up, more buyers are attracted, willing to pay higher prices. When prices go down, more sellers enter, ready to sell at lower prices.
The market moves like an auction in two main ways: first, it pushes prices higher until there are no more buyers willing to pay more. Then, it reverses and moves down until there are no more sellers willing to sell at lower prices.
In this way, the market constantly moves up and down, balancing buyers and sellers. When the upward movement ends, the downward movement begins, and this cycle keeps repeating.
Looking a bit closer, the market moves in one direction and “asks” the other side (buyers or sellers) to respond. When the opposite side responds enough to stop the current move, the market changes direction.
In short, the market is like a continuous auction, where prices rise and fall as buyers and sellers compete—until one side runs out of interest.
📌 4.2 - Negotiating Process
When the market moves in one direction, it creates boundaries for the price range. These boundaries are called the unfair low at the bottom and the unfair high at the top. They represent price levels where the market has gone too far — these are called excesses .
Once these limits are established, the market starts trading inside this range. It moves between the unfair low and unfair high to find a fair price , which we call value . In other words, the market negotiates within this range to settle on value.
If you pause the market at any moment, you will notice three important points:
Unfair low (the lowest excess)
Unfair high (the highest excess)
Value (somewhere in the middle)
These three points show how buyers and sellers negotiate prices in the market.
📌 4.3 - Time Frame
Markets are always shaped by two different forces: short-term traders and long-term traders. Both are active at the same time, but their goals are very different.
Short-term traders are focused on “fair price” for the day. When the market opens, price moves up and down as these traders search for a balance point where both buyers and sellers agree. If the open is inside the previous day’s range, short-term activity usually dominates. They don’t wait for the perfect deal—they just need a reasonable price to complete their trades quickly, like a business traveler who buys a ticket at the going rate without shopping around.
Long-term traders , on the other hand, are more strategic. They are not in a hurry to trade today. They wait for an advantageous price—something too high or too low compared to value. When they step in with enough volume, they can break the balance and extend the market range. This is how trends begin. You can think of them as a vacation traveler who has time to wait for the best discount fare.
Because long-term buyers see value at low prices and long-term sellers see value at high prices, they rarely meet in the middle. Instead, the market swings: rising to create opportunity for sellers, falling to create opportunity for buyers.
The result is a constant cycle: balance, imbalance, and back to balance. Day-to-day order flow is shaped by short-term traders, but big moves and directional trends come from long-term players. At the extremes—whether too high or too low—it’s always the long-term traders who take control.
📌 4.4 - Balance and Imbalanced
The market helps people buy and sell by moving repeatedly between states of imbalance and balance. This happens both within a single trading session and over longer-term trends.
When the market is balanced , buying and selling are roughly equal. This means the market has found an opposing force and is trading around a fair price where buyers and sellers agree.
When the market is imbalanced , either buying or selling dominates. The market moves up or down directionally, searching for the opposite reaction and a fair price to trade around.
In short:
A balanced market has found a fair price.
An imbalanced market is still looking for that fair price.
This is simply another way of stating the law of supply and demand: buyers want to buy, sellers want to sell, and the market is either in balance or trying to get there.
📌 4.5 - Day Timeframe Structure
The idea of day structure comes from how the market looks for a fair price where both buyers and sellers are willing to trade. If a price is unfair, trading will stop there, and the market will move until balance is found.
The first hour of trading sets the initial balance . This range is like the “base” of the day. A wide base is more stable, while a narrow base is weak and often leads to bigger moves later in the day. Just like the base of a lamp keeps it standing, a wide initial balance provides stability, while a narrow initial balance is easier to “knock over,” leading to bigger moves and range extensions.
When longer-term traders enter, they can break this balance. If they act small, the market moves only a little. If they act strong, the market can move far and leave signs, like tails on the profile. Tails show where longer-term traders rejected extreme prices.
By watching the initial balance and the activity of longer-term players, traders can recognize different day types . Each type gives clues about short-term trading opportunities and the market’s bigger direction.
The main balanced types are:
Normal Day
Neutral Day
The main imbalanced types are:
Normal Variation Day
Trend Day
4.5.1 - Normal Day
On a Normal Day , the market is in balance and longer-term traders have little influence. The Market Profile often looks like a classic bell curve , where most trading happens around a fair central price. At the extremes, prices are rejected—buyers stop above and sellers stop below—keeping the market balanced.
Key Characteristics:
The key sign of a Normal Day is the initial balance (first hour’s range), which usually makes up about 85% of the entire day’s range . In other words, the first hour often defines how the rest of the day will unfold.
If any range extension happens, it usually comes late in the session.
Dynamics:
In terms of volume, around 80% comes from short-term traders and only 20% from longer-term participants . Because long-term players are mostly inactive, the market doesn’t trend strongly and instead stays contained within the initial balance area.
4.5.2 - Neutral Day
A Neutral Day occurs when both long-term buyers and sellers are active, but neither side gains control. Their efforts cancel each other out, so price extends beyond the initial balance in both directions , then returns to balance.
Key Characteristics:
Range extensions above and below the initial balance.
Close near the middle of the day’s range.
Initial balance is moderate in size —not as wide as a Normal Day, not as narrow as a Trend Day.
Often shows symmetry : the upside and downside extensions are about equal.
In terms of volume, around 70% comes from short-term traders and only 30% from longer-term participants .
Dynamics:
Uncertainty dominates. Long-term traders test prices higher and lower, but without strong follow-through, their activity neutralizes. Short-term traders make up most of the volume, keeping the market contained. This indecision often leads to repeated neutral days , as neither side has enough conviction to drive a clear trend.
4.5.3 - Normal Variation Day
A Normal Variation Day happens when long-term traders play a more active role than on a Normal Day, usually making up 20–40% of the day’s activity.
Key Characteristics:
Their involvement leads to a clear day extension beyond the initial balance, often about twice the size of the first hour’s range.
The initial balance is not as wide as on a Normal Day, making it easier to break.
As the day develops, long-term traders enter with conviction and push price beyond the base (range extension).
Price may extend in one direction but eventually finds a new balance area.
Volume split: 60–80% short-term traders, 20–40% longer-term traders.
Dynamics:
Early trading looks balanced and controlled by short-term participants. Later, longer-term buyers or sellers step in more aggressively, causing the day’s range to expand. If the extension is small, their influence is limited.
4.5.4 - Trend Day
A Trend Day occurs when long-term traders dominate the market, pushing it strongly in one direction. Their influence creates maximum imbalance and range extension , often lasting from the open to the close.
Key Characteristics:
The close is usually near the day’s high or low (about 90–95% of the time).
Volume is split roughly 40% short-term traders and 60% long-term traders .
The profile shape is elongated and thin , unlike the balanced bell curve of a Normal Day.
Price moves in one-timeframe fashion : each period makes higher highs in an uptrend or lower lows in a downtrend, with little to no rotation.
Dynamics:
Trend Days often start with a narrow initial balance , quickly broken as long-term participants step in with strong conviction.
The move may be triggered by news, stop orders, or a strong shift in sentiment.
As the trend unfolds, new participants are drawn in, fueling continuous directional movement.
There are two types:
Standard Trend Day – one continuous directional move.
Double-Distribution Trend Day – an initial balance and pause, followed by a second strong directional push that creates a new distribution area.
📌 4.6 – Initiative and Responsive Activity
In Market Profile, it’s important to know whether longer-term traders are acting with initiative (pushing the market) or responding (reacting to prices that look too cheap or too expensive). You can figure this out by comparing the day’s action with the previous day’s value area.
Responsive Activity happens when traders behave in an expected way.
Buyers step in when prices drop below value (cheap).
Sellers step in when prices rise above value (expensive).
This behavior maintains balance and is typical in Normal or balanced days.
Example: price falls below yesterday’s value area → buyers enter → responsive buying.
Initiative Activity happens when traders behave in an unexpected way.
Buying takes place at or above value (where you’d normally expect selling).
Selling takes place at or below value (where you’d normally expect buying).
This shows strong conviction and usually drives imbalance or trend.
Example: price above yesterday’s value area continues to attract buyers → initiative buying.
Quick Rules (relative to the previous day’s value area):
Above value → Selling = responsive, Buying = initiative
Below value → Buying = responsive, Selling = initiative
Inside value → Both buying and selling are considered initiative , but weaker than outside activity.
Why it matters
Responsive action keeps the market balanced → often short-term focused.
Initiative action pushes the market to new areas of value → often starts trends.
In short, responsive moves are reactions to “fair or unfair” prices, while initiative moves show conviction to create new value levels.
🔸🔸🔸 5 - Strategy 🔸🔸🔸
Trading is never about finding a magic formula—it’s about reading the market and making decisions with context. Market Profile doesn’t give you fixed answers like “buy here, sell there.” Instead, it provides market-generated information that helps you recognize when conditions are shifting and when an opportunity has a higher probability of success.
Just like in teaching, if someone only looks for answers without understanding the reasoning, they miss the bigger lesson. In trading, the same is true: rules without context are dangerous. Market Profile teaches us how to think about the market, not just follow signals blindly.
That said, there are special situations in Market Profile where the structure itself points to a high-confidence setup. These are not guarantees, but they often create trades that “almost have to be taken,” provided the overall market context supports them.
Below are a few of the special strategies I’ll cover in detail. The goal is not to memorize fixed rules but to understand the logic behind them. By learning the reasoning, you’ll see why these setups matter and how to use them in practice with your Market Profile indicator.
3-1 Days
Neutral-Extreme Days
Spike
📌 5.1 - 3-1 Days
Among the special setups in Market Profile, the 3-1 Day is one of the most well-known. It signals a strong conviction from longer-term traders and often leads to reliable follow-through the next session.
Below is a practical, step-by-step guide you can follow when you spot a potential 3-1 Day. I give rules for identification, entry options (conservative → aggressive), stops, targets, trade management and failure signals. Keep it mechanical but always use judgement.
What is a 3-1 Day
A 3-1 Day occurs when three things line up in the same direction:
an initiative tail (single-print tail showing rejection at an extreme),
range extension beyond the Initial Balance, and
TPO distribution that favors the same direction.
When they align, longer-term players are showing conviction and follow-through is likely.
Step 1 - Identify & confirm the 3 signals
Confirm all three before trusting the set-up:
Initiative tail
• Look for single-print tail(s) at an extreme (top for selling tail, bottom for buying tail).
• The tail must be initiative, not just reactive — ideally it sits outside or within prior day value area and is followed by continued action in the same direction.
• A tail is valid only if price is rejected in at least one subsequent time period (i.e., it’s confirmed).
Range extension
• Price extends beyond the Initial Balance (A+B hour).
• The extension should be clear (not just a one-tick TPO). On many 3-1 examples extension is large and directional.
TPO count / profile bias
• The profile shows more TPOs on the extension side.
• TPOs favor the trend (more time/acceptance on the extension side).
Step 2 — Decide entry approaches
Conservative (recommended)
• Wait for the next day open to be within or better than the previous day’s value area (statistically highly probable after a 3-1).
• If next-day open confirms (opens in the trend direction or inside value but not against you), enter with a defined stop just beyond the tail/extreme.
• Advantage: extra confirmation, lower chance of false continuation.
Standard intraday (balanced)
• Enter after the tail + extension + TPO bias are visible and price pulls back to a logical support/resistance area:
• Buy: pullback into single-print area / inside single prints or into the upper edge of the prior value area.
• Sell: mirrored logic for downside.
• Place stop just beyond the tail extreme (a few ticks/pips beyond the single prints), or a tight structural stop below/above the retest.
Aggressive
• Enter as soon as price breaks out of the initial balance and shows range extension.
• Because this approach carries more risk of a false breakout, you should use the smallest position size and the tightest stop. If the breakout continues, you capture the move early and maximize reward. If it fails, your loss is limited because of the tight stop and small size.
📌 5.2 - Neutral-Extreme Day
A Neutral-Extreme Day starts as a neutral day (range extensions both above and below the Initial Balance) but closes near one extreme . That close signals a short-term “victor” among longer-term participants and gives a high-probability bias into the next session.
Neutral-Extreme Days are powerful because they combine both-sided testing (neutrality) with a clear winning side at the close. That winner often carries conviction into the next session — but always use proper stops and watch for early failure signs. Treat the setup as a probability edge, not a certainty.
Step 1 - Identify the Neutral-Extreme Day
Confirm the day was neutral : range extensions occurred both above and below the IB during the session.
Check the close : it is near the day’s high (neutral→high close) or near the day’s low (neutral→low close).
Note:
The close near an extreme indicates one side “won” the day and increased conviction.
Step 2 - Decide entry approaches
Conservative (recommended)
• Wait for the next days' open.
• If price of following days' opens
above the Neutral Day’s Value Area and the Neutral Day closed near the high => Long
below the Neutral Day’s Value Area and the Neutral Day closed near the low => Short
• Place stop just beyond the opposite edge of the previous day’s VA or slightly beyond today’s extreme.
Standard intraday (balanced)
• Wait for the next day’s first 30–90 minutes
• If price above the Neutral Day’s VA(or below the Neutral Day’s VA for short)
• Enter during the next day when early initiative activity confirms continuation
• Place stop just beyond the opposite edge of the Neutral day’s VA
Aggressive
• Enter at close of the Neutral-Extreme day, expecting continuation
• Use small size and a tight stop because overnight/new-session risk exists.
Example - 1
Example - 2
📌 5.3 - Spike
A spike is a fast, a few time periods move away from Value Area of trading session. Because it happens near the close, the market has not had time to “prove” the new levels (Price + Time = Value). The next session’s open and early activity tell you whether the spike will be accepted (continuation) or rejected (reversion).
1 - How to identify a spike
A spike starts with the period that breaks out of the day’s value area (the breakout period).
The spike range is from the breakout period’s extreme to the day’s extreme in the spike direction.
It is typically a quick, directional move in the last few time periods of the session.
2 - Acceptance vs Rejection - what to watch for next day
Because the move happened late, you must wait until the next trading day to judge follow-through. Early next-day activity shows whether value forms at the spike levels (acceptance) or not (rejection).
Accepted spike (continuation):
Next day opens beyond the spike (above a buying spike, below a selling spike), or
Next day opens inside the spike and then builds value there (TPOs/volume accumulate inside the spike).
Both cases mean the market accepts the new levels and continuation in the spike direction is likely.
Rejected spike (failure):
Next day opens opposite the spike (below a buying spike or above a selling spike) and moves away.
This indicates the probe failed and price will likely move back toward prior value.
3 - Spike Reference Points
Openings within the spike:
If next day opens inside the spike range → day is likely to balance around the spike.
Expect two-timeframe rotational trade (sideways activity) within or near the spike.
Treat the spike as a short-term new base : use the spike range (top-to-bottom of spike) as an estimate for that day’s range potential.
Openings outside the spike:
Open above a buying spike: very bullish - initiative buyers in control.
Trade idea: look to buy near the top of the spike (spike top becomes support).
Caution: if price later auctions back into the spike and breaks the spike top, the support may fail quickly.
Open below a selling spike: very bearish — initiative sellers in control.
Trade idea: look to short near the bottom of the spike (spike bottom becomes resistance).
Open above a selling spike (rejecting the spike): bullish day-timeframe signal, often leads to rotations supported by the spike top as support.
Open below a buying spike (rejecting the spike): bearish.
4 - Decide entry approaches
Conservative (recommended)
• Wait for next-day open and confirmation (open beyond spike or open inside then build value inside spike).
• Enter on a pullback toward the spike extreme (top for long, bottom for short).
• Place stop just beyond the opposite spike extreme.
Standard intraday (balanced)
• Enter at the open if it is above/below the spike in the spike direction.
• Use tight size and tight stop (higher risk / higher reward).
Aggressive
• Enter when early session shows initiative in spike direction (strong TPO/volume buildup).
• Stop under/above the spike extreme or an early structural swing.
🔸🔸🔸 6 - Conclusion 🔸🔸🔸
Becoming a proficient trader is much like designing with wood. At first, you study the fundamentals—understanding different types of wood, their strengths, how they react under load, and how joints transfer forces. Then you begin by following standard rules and templates, carefully measuring and cutting according to the book. Along the way, the tools you use—whether it’s a simple saw or advanced CNC machines—shape the quality of your work. Without the right tools, even solid knowledge can fall short. With practice, however, you learn not only how to apply the theory but also how to make the most of your tools, combining both into a process that feels natural and efficient. Eventually, you stop focusing on each detail step by step and instead feel how to create a structure that is both strong and elegant. Trading develops in the same way—starting from theory, moving through repetition, and finally reaching intuitive proficiency.
Success in trading is not about memorizing every pattern but about combining three essential elements: Theory + Your Judgment + Tools = Results . Theory provides the foundation, judgment comes from experience and self-awareness, and tools like TradingView allow you to test, visualize, and refine your edge. Together, these elements build the confidence to act decisively in live markets.
The strategies we explored—such as 3-1 Days, Neutral-Extreme Days, and Spikes —are valuable examples of how Market Profile structure can highlight high-probability opportunities. But now that you understand how profiles are built and the principles behind them, you are equipped to create and test your own strategies. Developing a personal approach not only strengthens your decision-making, it also raises your confidence level—one of the most important skills a trader can have.
In the end, Market Profile is not about rigid answers but about learning to think in market terms. Once theory and experience merge into intuition, opportunity becomes something you recognize instinctively—just as a fluent speaker understands meaning without translation. That is the essence of proficiency: not just knowing the rules, but mastering the ability to trade with clarity and conviction.
🔸🔸🔸 7 – Resources 🔸🔸🔸
If you’d like to deepen your knowledge of Market Profile and its applications, the following books are highly recommended:
A Six-Part Study Guide to Market Profile – CBOT
A clear and structured guide that introduces Market Profile theory step by step, making it accessible for both beginners and intermediate traders.
Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile – J. Peter Steidlmayer, Steven B. Hawkins
Written by the creator of Market Profile, this book lays out the foundational concepts and demonstrates how profiles reveal the auction process behind price movement.
Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process – James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, Robert B. Dalton
A modern exploration of how the auction process applies to today’s markets, combining Market Profile concepts with behavioral finance and practical strategy.
Mind Over Markets: Power Trading with Market Generated Information – James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, Robert B. Dalton
Considered a classic, this book provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and applying Market Profile. It bridges theory with practical trading insights, making it a must-read for serious traders.
The Big Fed Rate Cut Is Here. How Did Markets Do & What’s Next?“ Best we can do is 25bps ,” officials, probably, when they gathered to lower the federal funds rate. It wasn’t the 50 basis points some of you had expected. But you also didn’t expect to hear that two more trims are most likely coming by year end.
Let’s talk about that and what it means for your trading.
🎤 Powell Delivers
The Federal Reserve finally trimmed rates for the first time in nine months, cutting the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%–4.25%. This was hardly a surprise.
Markets had already fully priced in a quarter-point move. But the real twist was the Fed boss hinting at two more cuts this year. With just two FOMC meetings on the calendar, it’s pretty clear: unless something changes dramatically, traders should expect a cut at both.
The decision wasn’t unanimous. Newly minted, Trump-appointed Fed governor Stephen Miran wanted to go big or go home with a 50bps slash. Powell, though, balanced his message by saying risks to the labor market had grown while inflation was still running at 2.9% (way above target).
What does this mean? The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment is officially leaning toward protecting jobs at the risk of flaring up inflation.
💵 Dollar Takes a Dive
The immediate reaction was classic. A weaker dollar is the natural byproduct of lower rates, and the greenback obliged by sliding against major peers.
The FX:EURUSD pushed toward $1.19, its highest in four years, while the FX:GBPUSD tested $1.37 and the FX:USDJPY sank below ¥146.
For forex traders, this was textbook: lower yields make the dollar less attractive, especially compared to rivals with steadier or higher returns. But that was a reaction to the initial shock.
By early Thursday the dollar bounced back, because markets love to overreact before correcting, but the broader trend is still tilted bearish .
📈 Stocks: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
Stocks were less enthusiastic. The S&P 500 SP:SPX hovered near flat, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC slipped 0.3% for a second straight loss, and the Dow Jones TVC:DJI managed to buck the trend with a 260-point climb.
The takeaway? Traders had already bought the rumor of rate cuts, jammed their cash into equities, so when Powell delivered the expected 25bps, it wasn’t enough to light another fire.
The bigger hope lies in those promised future cuts, which could set the stage for another push higher – especially if Big Tech earnings hold up through the third quarter. (For the record, earnings season is almost here.)
Thursday's futures contracts were showing a big jump ahead of the opening bell with Nasdaq futures up by more than 1%.
🟡 Gold Shines, Then Stumbles
Gold OANDA:XAUUSD did what gold usually does when the Fed loosens policy: it powered up. Bullion was surfing on the high point of its all-time record of $3,700, before sliding back under $3,640.
What’s the logic behind rising gold prices and a falling dollar? In a low-yield environment, non-yielding assets like gold look more attractive, and a weaker dollar only sweetens the deal for overseas buyers.
Still, this week’s whipsaw reminded everyone that gold is no straight line up – momentum is there, but so are the bears guarding resistance.
🟠 Bitcoin Shrugs
Crypto was more muted. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD slipped 1.2% after the cut, dipping toward $115,000, only to bounce back above $116,000 the next morning.
For the orange coin, the Fed story is just background noise. Institutional inflows and ETF demand remain the key drivers, and traders are still gauging whether crypto wants to behave like a risk asset or play its “digital gold” role.
Still, the OG coin remains off its $124,000 record from mid-August , the market seems caught between consolidation and correction.
⚖️ The Balancing Act
The Fed’s challenge is clear: unemployment is rising, job gains are slowing , and payrolls have been revised lower for months.
At the same time, inflation has crept back up, with core prices still well above target. Cutting too much risks reigniting price pressures; cutting too little risks a labor-market slide that could snowball into recession.
Powell chose the middle ground – a modest 25bps – and teased with two more to calm investor nerves.
👀 What’s Next?
Markets now have a new playbook: watch every jobs report ECONOMICS:USNFP , every CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI release, and every Powell presser between now and December.
If job creation continues to cool, the Fed will likely follow through with the cuts. If inflation heats up, those cuts may get scaled back. And if both trends stall, expect chop – the dreaded sideways trade that tests everyone’s patience.
What can you do in this situation? One message is to stay nimble. The dollar’s longer-term weakness is reshuffling the forex space, gold is on the cusp of a breakout, and stocks remain in record territory. And crypto is doing its usual unpredictable mood swinging.
In a nutshell, Powell gave markets a gift in the form of liquidity, but as history reminds us, the Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away.
👉 Off to you : What’s your strategy in this market? Now that you have the cut (and two more likely on the way), are you bullish or bearish? Share your thoughts in the comments!
MSFT / MICROSOFT / Fractal and Seasonality inspiredHere is my view on MSFT from seasonal and fractal point of view.
Price gonna break the recent 516 high, shall turn and break recent 505 low than head upside for end of the year ralley.
i put 2 Longs into the chart. Smaller for first partial take profit and the larger one for rest.
All this should play out until 15th of November or latest until End of January.
After January 2026 downside. Be careful!
(This is not a trade call, just educational analysis, trade at your own risk)
Feel free to comment so we can learn and improve together!
Cheers!
Understanding Elliott Wave Theory with BTC/USD If you’ve ever stared at a Bitcoin chart and thought, “ This looks like chaos ”, Ralph Nelson Elliott might disagree with you. Back in the 1930s, Elliott proposed that markets aren’t just random squiggles — they actually move in recognizable rhythms. This became known as Elliott Wave Theory .
So, what is Elliott Wave Theory? In the simplest terms, it’s the idea that market psychology unfolds in waves: five steps forward, three steps back, repeat. Not every chart follows it perfectly, but when you see it play out, it feels like spotting order in the middle of crypto madness.
⚠️ Before we dive in: remember, no single tool or pattern works alone. Elliott wave trading is most useful when combined with other methods.
The Elliott Wave Principle
At the heart of the Elliott Wave principle are two phases:
Impulse Waves (5 waves) : Markets advance in five moves — three with the trend, two counter-trend. This is when optimism snowballs.
Corrective Waves (3 waves) : The market cools off in three moves. Usually messy, choppy, and fueled by doubt.
Put them together, and you get a “5-3“ structure that repeats at different scales. That’s what gives Elliott Wave its fractal character. Again, don’t treat this as a crystal ball. Elliott Wave Theory rules are guidelines, not guarantees. Real-world Bitcoin charts bend, stretch, and sometimes ignore them altogether.
Elliott Wave Theory Explained with BTC
Let’s use an example: Bitcoin’s rally from early 2025 till now .
This downturn marked the first step in a broader consolidation, signaling that momentum was beginning to fade.
The corrective sequence unfolded in a classic A-B-C structure.
❗This three-part move effectively reset the market, washing out excess leverage and preparing the ground for the next impulsive cycle.
From that low, Bitcoin launched into a textbook five-wave impulsive rally.
This initial leg down, labeled wave (a), suggested that a larger corrective phase was now underway, replacing the bullish momentum with profit-taking and distribution.
That’s a textbook case of Bitcoin Elliott wave analysis . But notice: it wasn’t clean. Some traders counted the waves differently. Some saw extensions or truncations. That’s the thing with Elliott — interpretation matters as much as the rules.
Elliott Wave Theory Rules and Flexibility
The classic Elliott wave rules say things like: Wave 2 can’t retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. Wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave. Wave 4 can’t overlap with Wave 1 in most cases.
But in practice, Bitcoin often blurs these lines. Extreme volatility, liquidation cascades, and macro shocks can distort wave counts. That’s why even seasoned analysts will say, “This is my Elliott count,” not the Elliott count.
The takeaway? Think of Elliott as a lens, not a lawbook.
Tools That Pair with Elliott
Many traders use the MT5 Elliott Wave Indicator or TradingView drawing tools to sketch their wave counts. Despite the waves becoming far more meaningful when tied to other signals:
Fibonacci Retracements: For example, watching how corrections line up with golden pocket levels. Momentum Oscillators: That confirm or contradict the wave structure. Macro Sentiment: Shifts that often align with corrective or impulsive phases.
Elliott Wave Theory trading doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Used alone, it’s like trying to predict the weather with just cloud shapes.
Why Beginners Should Care
If you’re new, you might be asking: “ Okay, but why bother with this at all? ” The answer: Elliott Wave Theory explained the psychology behind price swings long before the existence of cryptocurrency. It captures the human emotions behind markets — fear, greed, doubt, euphoria. And Bitcoin, perhaps more than any other asset, runs on psychology.
So whether you’re sketching waves, testing them on the Bitcoin Elliott wave chart , or just trying to understand why BTC always seems to surge then collapse, this framework helps put the chaos into context.
Final Thoughts 🌊
What is Elliott Wave Theory in trading? It’s not a magic formula. It’s a structured way of looking at markets through recurring patterns of optimism and pessimism.
And just like with every other tool we’ve discussed, it’s not about using it alone. The best insights come when you combine the Elliott Wave principle with other indicators: Fibonacci, moving averages, and even plain old support and resistance.
So the next time someone posts a “ wave count ” on a Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis, don’t take it as gospel. Treat it as one possible map of where we are in the cycle. Because in trading, it’s never about certainty. It’s about perspective.
This analysis is performed on historical data, does not relate to current market conditions, is for educational purposes only, and is not a trading recommendation.
Professional Analysis of Boeing (BA) Stock – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, Boeing (BA) has entered a descending channel after a strong rally from the $175 lows up to around $240 highs.
Bullish Scenario:
The price is currently around $215, near the channel’s lower boundary.
If this support holds and the stock reclaims the 50-day moving average (yellow line around $220), a rebound toward the channel’s upper boundary at $228 – $230 is likely.
A confirmed breakout above the channel could open the way toward $240.
Bearish Scenario:
If the $215 – $210 support zone breaks, the stock could slide down to the channel floor around $200 – $198.
A deeper breakdown below that may trigger further downside toward $185.
Conclusion:
Boeing is in a corrective channel. The $210 – $215 zone is a decisive level:
Holding it = potential rebound and short-term upside.
Breaking it = further weakness and extended downside risk.
The Stop-Loss Dilemma: Tight vs. Loose and When to Use EachToday we talk about stop losses. Love them or hate them, but don’t forget them, especially when things get wild out there.
Some traders think of them as the trading equivalent of a safety net: you hope you’ll never need it, but when you slip off the tightrope, you’re grateful it’s there to catch you.
Others believe they’re like training wheels that you can ditch when you think you’ve made it. But no matter your style, every trader eventually faces the same question: tight stop or loose stop?
Let’s unpack.
🎯 What a Stop Loss Really Is
At its core, a stop loss is an exit plan for the bad times (or learning times if you prefer). It’s not about being right, it’s about how wrong you want to be. You set a price level that says: “If the market gets here, I don’t want to be in this trade anymore.” That’s it.
The dilemma starts when you realize how wide that safety net should be. Too tight, and you’re out of trades faster than you can say “fakeout.”
That usually happens when the market gets too tough, especially around big news releases. But that’s why you have the Economic Calendar .
Too loose, and you risk turning a small misstep into a full-blown account drain.
📏 The Case for Tight Stops
Tight stops are for the traders who believe in precision. Think scalpers, intraday traders, or anyone not willing to take overnight risk, especially in the unpredictable corners of the crypto universe . These stops are fast, efficient, and don’t have any tolerance for error.
And it happens quick: if you still have your position an hour or two later, you know you’ve survived.
Pros:
Keeps losses small. Risk per trade is limited.
Forces you to be disciplined with entries (you need good timing).
Frees up capital for more setups since each trade risks a relatively small amount.
Cons:
Markets love to hunt tight stops. Wiggles, noise, and random candles can boot you out of a perfectly good trade.
Requires near-perfect timing. Short before the upside is over and you’re out.
Can lead to overtrading – you may start seeing opportunities that aren’t really there.
Tight stops can work if you’re trading liquid instruments with clear technical levels. But if you’re placing them under or over every tiny wick, you’re basically donating to the market makers’ La Marzocco fund.
🏝️ The Case for Loose Stops
Loose stops are the opposite vibe. They belong to swing traders, position traders, and anyone who thinks the market needs “room to breathe.” A loose stop gives your trade the flexibility to be wrong in the short term while still right in the long run.
It’s fairly boring trading. You open a relatively small position, you widen the stop and you forget about it.
Pros:
Avoids getting stopped out by random intraday noise.
Lets you capture bigger moves without micromanaging.
Works well in trending markets.
Cons:
You lock up capital if the trade moves sideways, i.e. risk missing out on other moves.
Larger stops mean smaller position sizes (unless you enjoy blowing up accounts).
Can tempt you to “hope and hold” instead of cutting losers early.
Loose stops demand patience and conviction. They’re not an excuse to set a stop 30% away and take a vacation. They’re strategic, placed around real levels of support/resistance, trendlines, or even moving averages.
⚖️ Finding the Balance
The reality? It’s not tight vs. loose – it’s about context. Your stop should reflect:
Timeframe : Scalping the S&P 500 SP:SPX ? Tight. Swing trading Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ? Looser (notice the double “o”).
Volatility : In calm markets, tighter stops work. In choppy ones (like individual stocks during earnings season ), they’ll get shredded.
Strategy : Breakout traders often need loose stops (false breakouts happen). Mean-reversion traders can keep them tight.
Think of it as tailoring your stop to the market’s mood. A tight stop in a trending, low-volatility stock might be perfect. That same stop in crypto? Time to say goodbye.
📉 The Asymmetric Opportunity
Here’s where stop-loss talk gets spicy: risk-reward ratios . A tight stop with a big upside target creates an asymmetric bet. You risk $1 to make $5 or even $15. The problem is, you’ll get stopped out more often. A loose stop, on the other hand, lowers your win rate risk but demands patience and confidence to ride out volatility.
Neither is better. It’s about whether you want more home runs with strikeouts (tight stops) or steady base hits with fewer fireworks (loose stops).
🧠 The Psychological Trap
Stop losses aren’t just math, they’re psychology. Traders often tighten stops after a bruising loss, thinking they’ll “play it safe.” Then they get stopped out again and again. Others loosen stops out of fear, giving trades space, until their account looks like a shrinking balloon.
The trick? Decide your stop before you enter. Not in the heat of the moment. Not after a candle fakes you out. Plan it. Write it down . Stick to it.
🚦 The Takeaway
Stop losses aren’t about being tight or loose – they’re about being intentional. A good stop loss fits your strategy, your timeframe, and your psychology. It’s a line in the sand that says: “I’ll risk this much to make that much.”
Next time you set a stop, are you protecting your capital or just trying to feel safe? Because the market doesn’t care about your comfort zone – it only respects discipline .
👉 Off to you : do you keep your stops tight, loose, or do you freestyle it? Let us know in the comments!
How to Close a Losing Trade?Cutting losses is an art, and a losing trader is an artist.
Closing a losing position is an important skill in risk management. When you are in a losing trade, you need to know when to get out and accept the loss. In theory, cutting losses and keeping your losses small is a simple concept, but in practice, it is an art. Here are ten things you need to consider when closing a losing position.
1. Don't trade without a stop-loss strategy. You must know where you will exit before you enter an order.
2. Stop-losses should be placed outside the normal range of price action at a level that could signal that your trading view is wrong.
3. Some traders set stop-losses as a percentage, such as if they are trying to make a profit of +12% on stock trades, they set a stop-loss when the stock falls -4% to create a TP/SL ratio of 3:1.
4. Other traders use time-based stop-losses, if the trade falls but never hits the stop-loss level or reaches the profit target in a set time frame, they will only exit the trade due to no trend and go look for better opportunities.
5. Many traders will exit a trade when they see the market has a spike, even if the price has not hit the stop-loss level.
6. In long-term trend trading, stop-losses must be wide enough to capture a real long-term trend without being stopped out early by noise signals. This is where long-term moving averages such as the 200-day and moving average crossover signals are used to have a wider stop-loss. It is important to have smaller position sizes on potentially more volatile trades and high risk price action.
7. You are trading to make money, not to lose money. Just holding and hoping your losing trades will come back to even so you can exit at breakeven is one of the worst plans.
8. The worst reason to sell a losing position is because of emotion or stress, a trader should always have a rational and quantitative reason to exit a losing trade. If the stop-loss is too tight, you may be shaken out and every trade will easily become a small loss. You have to give trades enough room to develop.
9. Always exit the position when the maximum allowable percentage of your trading capital is lost. Setting your maximum allowable loss percentage at 1% to 2% of your total trading capital based on your stop-loss and position size will reduce the risk of account blowouts and keep your drawdowns small.
10. The basic art of selling a losing trade is knowing the difference between normal volatility and a trend-changing price change.
Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton Rotation📌 The Soft Commodities Super Guide: Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton
Soft commodities — crops grown rather than mined — are among the oldest traded goods in human history. From cocoa beans once used as currency in Central America, to cotton powering textile revolutions, to sugar driving global trade and colonization, and coffee fueling productivity worldwide, these markets remain essential and volatile today.
On exchanges like ICE, CME, and NYMEX, traders can access futures and ETFs to speculate, hedge, or diversify portfolios. Soft commodities are especially attractive because of their strong seasonal patterns, geographic concentration of supply, and sensitivity to weather, politics, and demand shifts.
This guide will cover:
Seasonality of Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee & Cotton
Major Price Drivers
Trading Strategies & ETFs/Stocks
Yearly Rotation Playbook
🔹 1. Seasonality of Major Soft Commodities
Seasonality refers to recurring, predictable patterns of price strength or weakness tied to planting, harvest, and demand cycles.
📈 Cocoa (ICE: CC Futures)
Strongest: Summer (Jun–Sep) → Demand builds, weather risk in West Africa.
Weakest: Winter (Dec–Feb) → Fresh harvest supply hits markets.
📌 Example: June–Sep 2020 rally (+20%) from droughts + demand recovery.
📈 Sugar (ICE: SB Futures)
Best Months: Feb, Jun, Jul, Nov, Dec.
Strong seasonal window: May–Jan (fuel demand + holiday consumption).
Weakest: Mar–Apr (harvest pressure).
📌 Example: Nov–Dec 2020 sugar rally (+15%) as Brazil shifted cane to ethanol.
📈 Coffee (ICE: KC Futures)
Strongest: Late Winter to Summer (Feb–Jul).
Weakest: Fall harvest months (Sep–Oct) → new supply weighs on prices.
📌 Example: Frost in Brazil (Jul 2021) cut supply → Coffee futures spiked +60%.
📈 Cotton (ICE: CT Futures)
Strongest: Winter & Spring (Nov–May) → Textile demand, planting risk.
Weakest: Summer & Fall (Jun–Oct) → Harvest & oversupply pressures.
📌 Example: Nov 2020–May 2021 rally (+25%) from China demand + U.S. weather risks.
🔹 2. What Moves These Markets Most?
~ Cocoa
Weather in Ivory Coast & Ghana (70% of supply).
Labor disputes, political unrest, crop diseases.
Global chocolate consumption, health trends.
~ Sugar
Ethanol demand (linked to oil prices, Brazil cane allocation).
Government subsidies & tariffs (India, EU).
Brazil’s currency (BRL) & weather.
~ Coffee
Brazil & Vietnam crops (60% of global production).
Frosts, droughts, El Niño.
Consumer demand trends (premium coffee, emerging markets).
~ Cotton
U.S., India, China output (~65% global supply).
China’s stockpiling/import policy.
Substitute fabrics (polyester), energy prices.
Apparel demand cycles.
🔹 3. Trading Strategies & Investment Vehicles
Futures
Cocoa (CC), Sugar (SB), Coffee (KC), Cotton (CT) traded on ICE.
Provide direct, leveraged exposure.
ETFs & ETNs
Cocoa: NIB (iPath Cocoa ETN).
Sugar: CANE (Teucrium Sugar Fund), SGG (iPath Sugar).
Coffee: JO (iPath Coffee ETN).
Cotton: BAL (iPath Cotton ETF).
Stocks with Exposure
Cocoa: Hershey (HSY), Mondelez (MDLZ).
Sugar: Cosan (CZZ), ADM, Bunge (BG).
Coffee: Starbucks (SBUX), Nestlé, JM Smucker (SJM – owns Folgers).
Cotton: Levi’s (LEVI), VF Corp (VFC), Ralph Lauren (RL), Hanesbrands (HBI), Gildan (GIL).
🔹 4. Soft Commodities Yearly Rotation Playbook
Here’s how traders can rotate positions through the year for maximum seasonal edge:
📌 Example Rotation:
Start year in Sugar & Cotton (Jan–Feb).
Shift into Cocoa & Coffee (Jun–Aug).
Rotate back into Sugar & Cotton (Nov–Dec).
📌 Conclusion: The Soft Commodities Super Strategy
Soft commodities offer traders multiple edges:
✅ Seasonality: Cocoa (summer), Sugar (winter), Coffee (spring/summer), Cotton (winter/spring).
✅ Macro Drivers: Weather, politics, energy, government policies.
✅ Cross-Market Links: Oil prices → ethanol (sugar); apparel cycles → cotton; consumer demand → cocoa/coffee.
✅ Portfolio Benefits: Diversification vs. equities & metals.
The best strategy is to rotate across the year:
Long Sugar & Cotton (winter/spring),
Long Cocoa & Coffee (summer),
Rotate out during weak harvest windows.
Softs may be volatile, but for disciplined traders, they provide predictable, repeatable seasonal opportunities with both futures and equities exposure.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin break out of range?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the specified demand range, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward.
Bitcoin’s rise to around 121,000 and its arrival at the specified supply range will provide us with its next selling position. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $110,000 to $117,000 range, as reduced capital inflows into ETFs combined with intensified profit-taking exert mounting pressure on its upward momentum. In this environment, the derivatives market—driven by the strong presence of futures and options contracts—plays a central role in balancing and shaping market direction. Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders, alongside losses realized by recent buyers at price peaks, has fueled selling pressure across the market.
On-chain liquidity still maintains a constructive structure, but signs of gradual weakening are evident. Meanwhile, net ETF inflows and outflows have declined to around 500 BTC per day, significantly undermining demand from traditional finance (TradFi), which had previously been a key driver of rallies in March and December 2024.
Following the mid-August all-time high, market momentum steadily weakened, dragging Bitcoin below the cost basis of recent buyers at the top and pushing the asset back into a range-bound structure. The critical question now is whether this reflects a healthy consolidation phase or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle.
While dip-buyers provided some support, the primary selling pressure originated from experienced short-term holders. Data shows that 3–6 month holders have been realizing approximately $189 million in daily profits (based on the 14-day moving average), accounting for nearly 79% of total short-term holder realized gains. These figures indicate that many investors who entered the market during the February-to-May correction used the recent rally as an opportunity to lock in profits—creating considerable resistance against upward continuation.
In addition to profit-taking from seasoned short-term holders, recent peak buyers also capitulated by realizing losses during the pullback, further amplifying selling pressure. Alongside on-chain dynamics, assessing external demand through ETFs remains crucial, as these instruments have been pivotal in driving the current market cycle.
Since early August, net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have sharply declined, currently averaging around 500 BTC per day (14-day moving average). This is far below the levels of capital inflows that had previously supported the bullish phase of the cycle, reflecting weakening momentum from TradFi investors. Given the central role of ETFs in fueling Bitcoin’s recent uptrend, the slowdown in flows makes the market’s current structure noticeably more fragile.
Meanwhile, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket has announced a new collaboration with Chainlink. The partnership aims to launch 15-minute crypto prediction markets featuring rapid settlement and industry-leading security standards.
The integration of Chainlink’s oracle technology with Polymarket’s trading infrastructure is expected to enhance user access to accurate and reliable data, delivering a new experience in short-term prediction markets. This collaboration could mark a turning point in the development of innovative trading instruments and price forecasting tools.
Revealing The Secrets Of Pro Traders👋Hello everyone, if you’re just starting out with trading, this post is for you.
Trading can be exciting, but if you’re not careful, you’ll quickly become prey. Here are 5 common mistakes beginners often make:
1. Opening Too Many Positions At Once
When I first started, I thought using high leverage would help me make money quickly. But opening multiple trades at once can wipe out your account after just a small market reversal.
Example: A trader uses high leverage to buy XAUUSD, but when the price drops 10%, his account gets completely “burned.”
Solution: Always assess your personal conditions, calculate the profit you expect, how much loss you can handle, and set clear goals. I actually have a formula for this — if you’d like to know, just leave me a comment below.
2. Chasing Losses… And Losing Even More
It’s that feeling of desperation, right? You take a big loss on your first trades, then try to win it all back in the next ones, doubling down again and again… only to lose more.
I know the feeling of wanting to recover your money right away. But trying to chase losses by overtrading only makes things worse. Stop when you realize you’re acting out of emotion. Sometimes it’s better to accept a small loss and wait for a better opportunity, rather than risk blowing your account completely. That’s a hard lesson I learned from multiple wipeouts.
3. Ignoring Risk Management
Tell me you’re not guilty of this one. Many beginners think stop-losses or take-profits aren’t necessary because they believe they’ll “get lucky.” But skipping risk management is exactly why accounts get wiped out.
Example: A trader ignores stop-loss, and then unexpected news hits the market. The price reverses instantly, and the account vanishes “in a heartbeat.”
That’s why I always remind my students: set TP and SL on every trade and keep a close eye on important market news.
4. FOMO – The Fear of Missing Out
This is one of the feelings almost all of us experience when trading. Forget being an expert for a moment—when you’re new and see prices skyrocketing, with everyone around you buying, it feels like if you don’t jump in right now, you’ll miss your chance. But this impatience often leads to poor decisions. You end up buying without proper market analysis, and when losses come, you don’t even understand why—it’s simply because you were chasing the crowd.
5. The Biggest Factor – Lack of Knowledge
This one overshadows all the other mistakes. Many beginners rely only on tips from others or “tricks” without understanding indicators, technical analysis, or trading strategies. Maybe you’ve thought: “I just need to follow what others do, the market will be fine.” But in the long run, if you don’t fully understand your actions, you can’t control risk and the market will eventually knock you down. At that point, you’ll be left either begging for help or starting from scratch with your learning—too late.
In summary, success in trading comes down to three essentials:
Managing emotions
Managing risk
Continuously building knowledge and practicing consistently
In the coming posts, I’ll share more valuable lessons to help you overcome these challenges. You can study them, practice in a demo account, and then apply them to real trading when you’re ready. It will be incredibly useful.
If today’s lesson resonated with you and you’re excited for the next posts, hit the like button🚀—I’d love your support.
Good luck!
The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800? The Golden Run Continues: XAUUSD Eyes $3800?
Prior Bullish Momentum & Consolidation : XAUUSD entered a period of consolidation following a robust bullish rally earlier in the year. This initial surge established a strong underlying demand.
Symmetrical Triangle Formation : This consolidation phase manifested as a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This pattern typically represents a period of indecision, or accumulation/distribution, before a continuation of the prior trend.
Decisive Bullish Breakout: Gold has now executed a powerful and decisive upward breakout from the upper trendline of this symmetrical triangle. This action confirms the prevailing bullish sentiment and signals the likely resumption of the uptrend.
Key Support Level Established: The former upper trendline of the triangle, now residing around the $3500 mark, has effectively transformed into a critical immediate support level. A successful retest and hold of this level would further validate the breakout.
Strong Upward Trajectory: Post-breakout, the price action has been emphatically bullish, currently exhibiting a steep ascent within the marked green channel, indicating significant buying pressure.
Primary Price Target at Based on the measured move principle, often applied to symmetrical triangle breakouts (projecting the height of the pattern from the breakout point), our primary upside target for XAUUSD is 3800. This implies significant rally potential from current levels.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
The end of Bitcoin…. begins in 40 days time @ ~$160k in Oct 2025** What the next 12 months will look like **
Let’s just start with a strong provocative title to raise the blood pressure.. “The end of Bitcoin”
…. with an explosion and then a slow erosion of relevance, that’s how.
Whether it withers through regulation, succumbs to its own technological limits, or is simply eclipsed by something faster, greener, and more useful, the end of Bitcoin will be a quiet fading of a once radical idea into the background hum of history over the next 12 years.
Can already feel the calls for his head. Take a breath, unclinch your fits, consider the possibility for a moment.
For years Bitcoin stood as a monument to a digital rebellion, a currency without borders or masters promising freedom from central banks and governments alike. Yet the freedom that was marvelled on Bitcoin’s launch was equally celebrated on its loss the day the ETF was active. A currency available to all they chanted, now controlled by the few. The irony.
Diminishing returns
The bitcoin Halving cycles are a great place to start on the story of “How Bitcoin ends”. Bitcoin maximalists will themselves acknowledge this technical observation, post cycle returns are not only diminishing but on the road to disappear forever. It is the reason we've seen 2010-2012 wallets unload on the market those past 2 months. They know.
On the above 2 week chart it is fairly evident the momentum of each cycle is losing steam as the line of support rotates another hour of the clock face for every two cycles. The next halving cycle will complete at 3 o’clock with no measurable return from the 2025 cycle top. Consider that as the talking heads call for $1m+ by 2030.
The influencers and 40 days
Have you noticed influencers talk about the amazing things quarter 4 will bring? “October through December to mint millionaires!” The cringe.
At the height of every market top we see the same smoke and mirrors, “New paradigm” shift mantra. Every other day a new News article on crypto, ft.com is full of them. All red flags as the market top grows closer. Although euphoria is still to return, the time until the top is deterministic.
There’s never been a market top post halving (vertical blue lines) greater than 546 days (vertical orange lines). This value also includes the +/- 5 days price trades at the peak. The last two cycles (2017 and 2021) took 526 days to reach the peak. 2021 gave traders an additional 20 days to exit at the peak. Few accepted while the rest signed up for the 2 year bag holding challenge.
The market top is now between September 28th to October 20th, at most 40 days away from today, if you’re reading this on September 10th, 2025. Yes, perhaps this time will be different, however there’s now 3 out of 4 cycles with less than 546 days (at max) until the cycle top, and the Bitcoin bull market is approaching that value fast. Is this time really going to be different? Influencers certainly think so.
PS: Notice the monthly reduction in market peaks? 2017 = December, 2021 = November, 2025 = October!
40 days / October 20th to $160k - Seriously?
Historical halving to market peaks
2012 Halving: +9,300% to $1,150 in November 2013
2016 Halving: +2,930% to $19,700 in December 2017
2020 Halving: +702% to $69,000 in November 2021
Lower limit
*** 2024 Halving: +160% to $160k in October 2025 ***
Upper limt
*** 2024 Halving: +180% to $180k in October 2025 ***
There’s a whole host of reasons or should I say confluence for this price action forecast too numerous to go into detail. However here’s a couple of standout reasons:
Reason 1
Each new cycle’s return is roughly ~25–30% of the prior cycle’s return. This means the halving to peak return is compressing by a fairly consistent factor in each cycle, close to a “quartering” effect. For this reason the 2025 market top falls between $160k to $180k.
It would also mean the end of Bitcoin as the next cycle peak would be a macro lower high. Consider a cycle 5 (2028 halving) with ~25% of Cycle 4’s return: 25% × 170% ≈ 40–45% return from the 2028 halving to its peak.
A market correction beginning in October 2025 for a new bear market would not be over until the $40-50k area. A 40% return in cycle 5 peaks out at $70k after the 2028 halving, a macro lower high! Remember talking heads are calling for $1m and beyond 2 years later.
If that becomes true, Bitcoin has entered a confirmed macro multi year bear market. A bear market just as long as the bull market from 2010. Such a bear market would not see price action arrested until around $6k in 2039! A long way from Michael Saylor’s $13 million per coin in 2045.
Welcome to the Ponzi scheme.
Reason 2
The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been an excellent marker for the cycle top, as were previous extensions in previous cycle tops. The market will always react to Fibonacci extensions regardless. Even if you believe Bitcoin will continue to print higher highs and 2026 is going to a very green year for price action.. you must accept price action will react strongly with those extensions, it always has.
But there’s more…. the 1.618 extension for this cycle shares confluence with point number 1. Yes, the quarterly reduction in return forecast of 160% for this Halving is also the 1.618. Dazzled? You should be!
There are many other studies for considering this level as the market top, which is discussed elsewhere.
Conclusions
If history continues to rhyme, the next 40 days may mark not only the top of this cycle, but also the start of Bitcoin’s long fade into irrelevance. A projected move to the $160k–$180k range would appear spectacular on headlines, yet within the broader arc of Bitcoin’s halving mechanics, it represents nothing more than the final gasp of exponential returns before the math itself runs out of road.
Each halving cycle has delivered progressively weaker gains, compressing the dream from life-changing multiples to mere percentages. At this trajectory, the next cycle risks producing a macro lower high, the first true sign of a terminal bear market. Beyond that lies the possibility of decades-long decline, where the legend of “digital gold” becomes just another case study in market psychology and technological obsolescence.
The irony is inescapable: what was once celebrated as unshackled freedom from centralised control now trades under the thumb of ETFs, influencers, and institutional flows. The rebellion has been monetised, the revolution syndicated. If October 2025 plays out as expected, we will look back not at the rise of Bitcoin to a million dollars per coin, but at its slow descent into being just another ticker on the screen, remembered more for what it symbolised than for what it ever achieved.
Ww
Why Ethereum is Outperforming Bitcoin? | FX ResearchWhile Bitcoin did manage to push to a fresh record high, the broader august trend reflected cautious investor sentiment, supported by modest momentum and ongoing macro uncertainty. The narrative suggests price resilience, but without the forcefulness needed for the next wave of bullish momentum.
In stark contrast, Ethereum continued with its run of outperformance—posting double-digit returns and surpassing its 2021 peak to hit fresh all-time highs. Its rally was powered by robust institutional demand, record ETF inflows, and active on-chain metrics like rising transaction volumes and reduced network fees. Favorable regulatory signals, particularly stablecoin-friendly legislation, further stoked confidence in ETH’s utility-driven narrative.
This divergence has shifted the ETHBTC dynamic sharply in ETH’s favor. As Bitcoin grinded higher with subdued volatility, Ethereum’s performance underscored its emergence as the speculative bellwether, attracting capital rotating away from Bitcoin’s more mature positioning.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Risk-Reward Ratios Explained: How to Trade Less and Earn MoreIf you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably had one of those weeks where you take 15 trades, stress over every tick, barely sleep – and somehow, your P&L ends up red anyway.
Meanwhile, someone in your Discord chat casually posts their “one trade of the week” that banked more than your entire month.
The difference? They understand risk-reward ratios (unless they’re social-media influencers and have a course to sell). The ones that get risk-reward ratios right aren’t trading more, they’re trading less, better.
And that’s what we’re diving into today: how to use risk-reward to stop overtrading, focus on higher-quality setups, and finally give your capital the respect (and break) it deserves.
💡 What Risk-Reward Really Means
At its core, the risk-reward ratio (RRR) tells you how much you’re willing to lose compared to how much you aim to gain. But don’t let the simplicity fool you – mastering this concept separates the true traders from the exit liquidity.
Say you’re risking $100 to make $300. That’s a 1:3 risk-reward ratio – for every $1 on the line, you’re targeting $3 in return.
The beauty is, you don’t need to be right most of the time to make money. At a 1:3 ratio, you can lose six trades out of ten and still come out ahead. That flips the game from “I need to be right” to “I just need to manage risk.”
But, believe it or not, most traders do the opposite. They risk $300 to make $100, cut winners too early, and widen stops when trades go south. That’s not risk management; that’s donation season.
📐 Why This Isn’t Just About Math
Risk-reward ratios look clean on paper, but in real life, psychology can ruin everything.
Picture this:
You plan a beautiful 1:3 setup.
The trade starts working, you’re up 1R, and you panic.
You close early “just to lock in profits.”
If you’ve been around for a while, you’ve heard the saying “You never go broke taking profits.” True. But cutting winners early might mean missing out, hitting your goals slower or not hitting them at all.
Pro tip: once you’re up 1R, consider putting a stop at breakeven and let your take profit stay where you set it initially.
Because there’s a flip side, too. When trades go against you, emotions tell you to give it a little more room. You move your stop. Then you move it again. Suddenly, your carefully planned 1:3 trade becomes a 3:1 loser.
This is where discipline comes in. A risk-reward plan only works if you have the discipline to stick to it . Otherwise, you’re trading vibes, not setups.
🎯 The Sweet Spot for Most Traders
There’s no universal “best” ratio, but for most retail traders these setups work fine:
Day traders often aim for around 1:1 to 1:2
Swing traders typically prefer 1:3 to 1:4
Position traders can stretch to 1:5 or higher
Why? Higher timeframes give price more space to breathe. If you’re scalping, you can’t realistically aim for a 1:5 setup unless you enjoy watching charts like they’re Netflix and crying when spreads eat your edge.
But here’s where traders mess up: Instead of finding setups that naturally offer good ratios, they force them. They shrink stops to chase a flashy 1:6 RRR and end up getting wicked out by noise. Quality setups beat aggressive plays more often than not.
🚀 Asymmetric Risk-Return: The Home Run Setup
Let’s talk about asymmetric bets – trades where the upside massively outweighs the downside. Think 1:10, 1:15, or even 1:20 setups.
These are rare, but they’re game-changers when they hit.
Imagine risking $100 with a tight stop on a breakout setup. If price pops and you catch the move early, you could ride it for $1,500 or more. That’s a 15R trade – the kind that can pay for weeks, sometimes months, of smaller losses.
Here’s a recent example in FX:GBPUSD . The pair hit a double top in mid-August and immediately reversed, piercing the $1.3590 (a prior peak) by just 5 pips. Say you spotted that double-top formation and shorted with a 10-pip stop.
You’d survive the rise and then enjoy a 200-pip reward. That’s 20R in the bag, provided you exited right before the trend turned.
But here’s the trade-off:
You’ll get stopped out more often.
You need patience to let the winners actually run.
You have to accept discomfort – watching price retrace without panic-selling your position.
The market sharpshooters who master asymmetric setups don’t chase them every day. They stalk clean breakouts, major trend reversals, or high-conviction catalysts – and when the trade lines up, they size big, set a tight stop, and let the probabilities do the heavy lifting.
It’s less about being right every time and more about letting one big win offset multiple small losses.
🧩 Making Risk-Reward Work for You
Understanding ratios isn’t enough. You need a process:
Start with risk first
Decide how much you’re okay losing per trade – most pros cap it at 1–2% of account size.
Find logical stops, not emotional ones
Set stops based on structure – below support, above resistance, or at levels where your idea is simply wrong.
Set realistic targets
Don’t dream of 1:10 on a choppy Tuesday unless there’s a major catalyst to back it up.
Let math guide position sizing
Smaller stops mean larger position sizes for the same risk, but stay consistent with your capital exposure.
By planning before you enter, you flip the game from guessing to executing. That’s when risk-reward stops being theory and starts being strategy.
📈 Risk-Reward in Different Market Conditions
Markets change character, and your RRR should adapt too.
In strong trending markets , you can aim for bigger ratios since momentum carries trades further.
In range-bound conditions , scaling back to 1:1.5 or 1:2 makes sense – breakouts fail more often.
During news-heavy weeks , either widen stops or stay flat if you’re risk-averse. Chasing trades when Powell’s mic is on ? Risky business.
The smart traders bend their risk-reward ratios based on volatility instead of forcing the same plan everywhere.
🏖️ Trade Less, Profit More
Here’s the counterintuitive truth: the fewer trades you take, the more money you’ll likely make. In other words, less is more.
Focusing on high-quality setups with favorable RRRs means:
Less noise
Less overtrading
More time for actual analysis instead of gambling
You don’t need to catch every move. Stick to your RRR strategy, take care of the losses, and let profits take care of themselves.
🎯 The TradingView Edge
This is where tools make life easier:
Use Supercharts to visualize risk-reward zones before you enter.
Once inside a chart, navigate to the left-hand toolbar and spot the icon where it says Projection . Pick Long position for long risk-reward ratio, and Short position for short risk-reward ratio. Here’s a helpful tutorial in case you need some guidance.
Set alerts at key levels so you’re not glued to your screen.
Scan with screeners to find setups with volatility and structure that match your target ratios. heatmaps can help, too.
And finally, check out the newest product we launched, Fundamental Graphs , allowing you to compare plenty of metrics across multiple companies (we’re talking earnings, cash flows, net income, revenue, all that good stuff).
👉 The Takeaway
Risk-reward ratios aren’t a thing to consider – they’re a pillar of profitable trading. You don’t need to predict the market perfectly; you need to structure your trades so that your wins pay for your losses, and then some.
For most traders, the shift is simple:
Stop chasing every setup.
Start filtering for trades where the upside dwarfs the downside.
And when you get the rare asymmetric winner, ride it like your P&L depends on it – because it does.
Off to you : What’s your RRR strategy? Are you a defensive player or you’re chasing the asymmetric trades? Share your approach in the comments!
Patience: Is a virtue but it's damn hard...NOTE - This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I'm taking the time here to post as an effort to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so that you are able to execute your own trading system as best you can from a place of calm, patience and confidence'.
Here's a scenario:
You want the trade to hurry up… but the market has no reason to move on your timeline.
Here on Ethereum we see consolidation.
We can imagine traders framing for a break in either direction.
There will certainly be plenty trying their hand at getting ahead of the move and getting chopped.
Patience is one of the hardest skills for traders to master. The market doesn’t reward impatience it punishes it. If I'm honest, when I first started out, I certainly didnt think of patience as a 'skill' - but it's certainly essential. Without it, I've either wasted a lot of 'ammunition' in trying - or missed the whole point of a trade once I was depleted of will.
So offering some thoughts for you. Please take what resonates and ignore what doesn't work for you:
How impatience shows up:
You close trades too early because the profit feels “good enough.”
You jump into setups that haven’t confirmed because you’re tired of waiting.
You watch price drift sideways and feel an urge to “make something happen.”
You start to entertain thoughts that undermine your confidence.
You get distracted and do something else entirely risking missing the signal all together.
Emotional side:
Impatience often hides anxiety the need for relief, action, or certainty. Your body feels restless, your mind races with “what ifs,” and you start convincing yourself to bend your rules.
This is not 'woo'. It's an actual internal angst that causes one to act / behave in a way and at a time that is against ones intention. Ironically - as much as we ignore it - it' drives our behaviour.
So how can we get ahold of this to try and ensure it doesn't sabotage our intentions?
Consider the following and see if it works for you.
Shift your mindset
See patience as an active discipline and not just something that's passive. If we practice and nurture patience with mindfulness, the stronger the muscle to holding your ground, sticking to your process and letting the probabilities play out on their own clock not yours.
Practical tips .. the How ..:
When you feel that urge rising:
- notice where in your body you're feeling impatience.
- recognise how it's showing up for you (tension, irritation, restlessness - something else)
- notice what you are saying to yourself
- consider and assess : when was the last time I had a drink of water, had something to eat?
- do something physical to diffuse the feeling and get some energy back in the body:
stretch, breathe, walk away from the screen for a moment
put some music on and dance your ass off, do some burpees
set an alert on your screens, phone etc
Reminder yourself ... 'Waiting is a position too'.
I hope this helps. Interested in hearing what you do to instill and respect your patience
Oracle Is Up 80% Since April. What Does Its Chart Tell Us?Oracle NYSE:ORCL will release fiscal Q1 results next week at a time when the tech giant's stock has risen more than 80% from its April lows, but also given back some 15% since hitting a 52-week high in late July. Let's see what the stock's technical and fundamental analysis can tell us.
Oracle's Fundamental Analysis
ORCL, which will report results after the bell on Tuesday, rose nearly 120% over the less than three months between its $118.86 April 7 intraday low and its $260.87 intraday July 31 high.
That included a 22% gain over two sessions that followed its fiscal Q4 2025 results' release on June 11.
Those earnings beat the Street's estimates for both revenues at adjusted earnings, with year-over-year sales growth accelerating to 11.3% from 6% in the prior quarter. In fact, the results marked the first time Oracle saw double-digit percentages for sales growth since 2023.
Beyond the headline results, ORCL's remaining performance obligation rose 41%, while cloud revenues (IaaS and SaaS) grew 27%.
Company founder and Chairman Larry Ellison said at the time that multi-cloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Azure alone grew 115% between the company's fiscal Q3 and Q4. He added: "We expect triple-digit multi-cloud revenue growth to continue in FY26."
For fiscal Q1, analysts expect Oracle to post $1.48 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $15.1 billion of revenue. That would represent 6.5% growth from the $1.39 in adjusted EPS that ORCL reported in the same period last year, as well as about a 13.5% y/y gain from last year's $13.3 billion in revenues.
The Street also projects 16% sales growth for Oracle's fiscal year as a whole, along with 19% revenue expansion in fiscal 2027. This supports just what Ellison said.
However, not everyone is sold on that. Of the 33 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover ORCL, 12 have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while 10 have revised their projections lower. (Eleven made no changes.)
Oracle's Technical Analysis
Now let's take a look at Oracle's year-to-date chart as of Wednesday:
How interesting is this? ORCL started the year with what's called an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern of bullish reversal with a $163 pivot, as denoted by the purple jagged line and purple field at the chart's left.
The stock then rallied from there, but developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal from late June unto the president day. This pattern has a $229 downside pivot that appears to have just recently been triggered. (ORCL closed at $223 Thursday.)
Making matters even trickier for the bulls, Oracle has just suffered what's called "baby death cross" or "swing trader's death cross," marked with a red box at the chart's right.
That's when a stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by a green line) crosses below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line). That's usually considered a short- to medium-term bearish technical signal.
The other indicators in the chart above are likewise sending less-than-joyous signals ahead of Oracle's earnings.
For example, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is weak, although not technically oversold.
Similarly, Oracle's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is getting gnarly.
The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is in negative territory and has been since mid-July.
Meanwhile, the stock's 12-day EMA (the black line) crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line) in early July and has never recovered. In fact, the gap between the two lines has only increased while both headed lower and now stand in negative territory. That can typically be a bearish signal.
Investors should also be cognizant that Oracle's chart has an unfilled gap from early July that would need a tick as low as $176.38 to completely fill in. That would require about a 20% drop from Thursday's close.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ORCL at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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Trading Psychology 101: Master Your Mind Before the MarketWhen people first start trading, most of their attention goes to entries, indicators, and strategies. It feels like the secret to success must be hidden in the charts.
Over time, traders realize something uncomfortable: the biggest challenge isn’t the market—it’s themselves.
You can learn technical analysis, understand risk management, and even copy profitable strategies. Yet, if fear, greed, or impatience take over, the outcome will be inconsistent.
Research suggests that trading performance depends far more on mindset than on technical skill alone.
Here are a few patterns almost every trader will recognize:
Entering too quickly because of FOMO.
Closing winners too early out of fear they will reverse.
Holding on to losers, hoping they will turn around.
Ignoring rules after a streak of good trades because of overconfidence.
Each one might feel harmless in the moment, but over time they erode consistency.
Imagine two traders using the exact same strategy with a 60% win rate.
Trader A lets emotions dictate actions. They cut winners short, stretch losers, and end up losing money.
Trader B follows rules calmly. Losses are accepted, winners are allowed to run. Over the same number of trades, this trader ends profitable.
The system is identical, but psychology makes all the difference.
5. The Real Lesson
Markets are unpredictable. Strategies are never perfect. What you can control is how you respond.
Strong psychology allows you to execute consistently and let probabilities play out. Without it, even the best system will eventually fail.
6. Benefits of a Solid Mindset
Building psychological strength in trading gives you:
Patience to wait for quality setups.
1. Discipline to stick with your plan.
2. Resilience to handle losing streaks.
3. Consistency across weeks and months.
4. Mental clarity to make rational decisions under stress.
Long bond bulls’ eye bigger breakoutThe bullish move in U.S. ultra-long bond futures anticipated last week has played out nicely, with the contract surging higher over the subsequent days, taking out a key topside hurdle comprising the 200DMA and horizontal resistance at 119’19. The move has now stalled at a downtrend from the highs set in September last year, a period when the Fed went full-bore dove on concerns the U.S. was potentially slipping into recession. Sound familiar?
Zooming out, the contract is coiling within a falling wedge, a continuation pattern that points to the potential for a far larger extension of the bullish move should the price break and hold above the September 2024 downtrend. The signal from the breakout may not be as reliable as others given long bond futures have been anything but bullish in recent years, but convention suggests we could eventually revisit the September 2024 highs, implying a 30-year yield of less than 4%.
122’18 and 124’24 are minor levels to monitor on the topside before more significant tests await at 129’00, 132’00, 135’13 and the September 2024 swing high. RSI (14) and MACD point to building bullish momentum, favouring a similar directional bias that should improve the odds of the breakout sticking, should it occur.
Good luck!
DS






















