The Platinum BulletOver the years, I have posted a lot of educational content here on TradingView. Everything from Elliot waves to Wyckoff, psychology to Gann.
I have been lucky as a trader, 25 years doing this you pick up a thing or two. But above everything else, what you realise is that trading is a mindset game and not a technical one.
Many new traders try their luck. They are either experts in another field or simply successful in something else, or they come to the trading arena seeking wealth.
Both tend to get humbled quickly.
It is common for many new traders to put so much emphasis on the strategy, they overlook the psychology. You see, a strategy might work for someone, but you can't get it to work for you. This could simply be the time on the charts you lack, the timeframe or the instrument you are trading. The account balance or the fact you are not used to seeing 3-4 losses in a row.
When it comes to trading, less really is more!
Here's a simple one for you.
Take the mechanical range post I posted.
Now look at this;
On the larger timeframes we can see clearly the ranges and the supply/demand.
Then dropping down to the daily.
This is where, the technical aspect becomes less important and the psychology behind the move shows it's hand.
I have added volume and the AD line just to show how obvious this can be.
What do you see? Well as the price goes up, the volume goes down, we know we took liquidity to the upside.
So, if nothing else you would anticipate a pullback phase.
Then you get the clarity. Price drops and then pushes back, yet fails to make a new high. Almost like the volume told you it was about to happen.
Where did it pull back to?
Adding a simple volume profile too, from the swing high to the swing low. You can see the majority of the sell off (PoC) happened at a specific price point. Price pulled back to exactly that region before dropping.
The drop caused a local change in character and immediately took out the swing low - the last swing low of the leg up. (the real change in the trend).
There is obviously more to cover than this, but that is for another post.
Once you learn the way markets capitalise on the fear, the greed, the herd mindset, sentiment of the retail crowd. You can use the sentiment analysis in your favour.
You don't need 6 screens, fancy indicators, there is no silver bullet or 100% win rate strategies. And no a bot won't make you a Billionaire overnight.
If it was that easy, we would have no doctors, lawyers or firefighters; they would all be professional Bot traders.
Simplify your approach, put emphasis on the proper mindset, psychology and risk management and you will do alright!
Stay safe in the markets!
Some other recent posts;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Community ideas
Boeing Wave Analysis – 5 August 2025- Boeing reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 230.00
Boeing recently reversed up from the support zone between the pivotal support level of 217.50 (former top of wave 1 from June) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
This support zone was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse i from June.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Boeing can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 230.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 240.00.
Why Litecoin is my #1 pick right nowObserving the price action between the two vertical blue lines (the '20 to '21 bull cycle), and comparing to the trend based fib extension levels on the left, we have a blueprint for the fib levels that LTCUSD responds to. At the .236 fib, a 24% pullback. At the .382 a 36% pullback. At the .5 a 38% pullback. Then the market got super heated and it blew past the .618 and had another 38% pullback before the final push up to $413, followed by a 75% "correction".
I'm using those fib levels for my sell/buyback zones in the current bull cycle:
- The first one is at $131, but I think LTC may blow past this one since it's so close to where LTC is breaking out of the trendline and the crypto market just had a retrace.
- The second level is at $188.
- Third level at $234.
- The final level I'm aiming for is the golden trend line at around $400.
- Based on breaking out of the long descending wedge on the LTC:BTC chart, it's possible for LTCUSD to have a huge blow-off top and hit upwards of $600.
Looking at the LTC:BTC pair, (see my last post), Litecoin has a huge potential in the current bull cycle. In the '20-'21 cycle it didnt breakout against bitcoin until the end of the bull run and that breakout wasn't major. LTC:BTC is currently breaking out of a long-term trendline with significant volume.
We'll see. But one thing is for sure, LTC held up well against BTC during the recent drop from $119k to $112k, and now it's pumping steadily. Lookin' good.
What do you think?
The Illusion of ControlThere comes a point in every trader’s journey when you do everything right, and it still goes wrong.
You plan the trade meticulously, plot the levels, define your risk, wait patiently for the setup, and enter with the kind of discipline that would make any textbook proud. You follow your rules. You trust your process. And yet, the market does what it does!
It breaks through your stop as if your risk management was never there. Sometimes it gaps hard against you, leaving no room to act. Sometimes it simply meanders sideways, wearing down your conviction until, exhausted and uncertain, you exit - only to watch the market finally rally the moment you’re out.
This experience is frustrating and discouraging. Yet, for those with enough experience, it's a familiar scenario.
It's not just about losing money, though that definitely stings. This kind of hit really messes with your confidence, throws off your game, and makes you feel disconnected from your work. Before you know it, those sneaky little doubts creep in: Did I miss something? Could I have stopped this? Am I just not good enough at this yet?
So you go back to the charts, really digging into every detail. You watch replays, try out new filters, and pile on more indicators, scrutinizing the trade from every possible angle. You tell yourself this super careful process makes you better, a crucial part of being a professional. But if you're real with yourself, it's more than just getting better. Underneath all this striving for improvement is often a deeper reason: you really want to be in control.
We often discuss risk management, patience, and emotional discipline, yet we seldom acknowledge our deep-seated desire to control the market. We invest countless hours in learning, testing, and refining, expecting our efforts to yield tangible results. When the market doesn't respond as we anticipate, it's disheartening. This is because, at our core, we not only aspire to be skilled traders but also crave the belief that we are truly in command.
The market just does its thing, plain and simple. It doesn't care how much work you put in or how carefully you prepare. It's not about rewarding effort; it just moves. Trying to find a reason for every little change is pointless, like trying to argue with the ocean. You can't outsmart randomness; you can only learn to coexist with it.
The best traders do prepare with care. They’re thoughtful, meticulous, and dedicated. But many cross a subtle line, often unknowingly - the line where preparation morphs into obsession, where working harder becomes an emotional shield, and where we start to believe that if we can just control every input, we can guarantee the output.
This is where it all becomes dangerous. Not financially, necessarily, but psychologically. When your self-worth becomes intertwined with your performance, every loss starts to feel personal. Every drawdown feels like an indictment. You tell yourself you’re striving for excellence, but what you’re really chasing is certainty; and in a domain governed by uncertainty, that’s a recipe for chronic frustration.
The truth is, trading isn't about being right all the time, or even most of the time. The real skill is staying cool when you mess up and not freaking out when things go sideways. You don't have to be perfect; you just need to handle the unknown without needing to control it. You won't pick up this tough lesson from courses, forums, or even tons of practice, unless you're truly reflecting on what you're doing. You learn it by watching winning trades go bad, by handling losses without freaking out, and by being able to stay cool when things get uncomfortable.
You know that annoying feeling we sometimes get? It's usually just fear, popping up as worries about messing things up, looking foolish, or not being quite good enough. When you're trading, these fears can seriously mess with your mind. You might jump into trades too quickly, fiddle with your stop-loss, settle for smaller gains, or just abandon your whole strategy when things get tough. We might try to convince ourselves we're being clever, but typically, we're just trying to escape feeling uncomfortable.
Trying too hard to control the market often hurts your edge. Trading systems usually don't fail because of math errors; they fail because traders don't have the patience to stick with them through tough times and let them do their job.
Every trader eventually faces a fundamental, liberating truth: you are not in control. Once you accept this, you can stop trying to control the uncontrollable and instead concentrate on what you can manage: your risk, routine, discipline, and behavior.
Detaching from the outcome isn't about indifference or a lack of concern; it's about embracing trust. Trust in your preparation. Trust in your edge. Trust in the law of large numbers — that over time, if you execute consistently, the results will follow. Not perfectly, not smoothly, but faithfully.
You build trust over time, often without even realizing it. It's about sticking to your plan even when things aren't going your way, taking losses in stride, and not messing with something that's working, just because it hasn't paid off yet.
Over time, your trading approach transforms. You no longer dwell on every loss or micromanage winning trades. The urge to constantly adjust your system after a bad week/month subsides. Your perspective broadens; you begin to think in terms of years, not just days. This shift cultivates a deeper, process-driven confidence, untethered from mere numbers. You stop striving for absolute control, and in doing so, discover a sense of peace.
True mastery isn't about dominating the market, but rather relinquishing the illusion that you ever could.
Turning Stock Declines Into Your Best Trading OpportunityTurning Stock Declines Into Your Best Trading Opportunity
When stocks fall dramatically, many investors panic. But what if those drops were actually the set-up for some of the most lucrative opportunities?
In this article, you’ll discover why sharp declines can set the stage for outsized gains, how the mathematics of recovery works, and how to use classic technical patterns to identify the ideal entry points. And the most important, how to do it easily on Tradingview!
The Power of Recovery: Why a Drop = Big Upside
Every percentage drop in a stock’s price requires a much larger percentage gain to return to its previous high. Recognizing this simple truth can turn “market fear” into “trader’s opportunity.”
Here’s exactly what a stock would need to climb, after various drops, to reclaim old highs:
| Drop (%) | Required Gain to Recover (%) |
|----------|-----------------------------|
| 10 | 11.1 |
| 20 | 25.0 |
| 30 | 42.9 |
| 40 | 66.7 |
| 50 | 100.0 |
| 60 | 150.0 |
| 70 | 233.3 |
If a top-quality stock drops 50%, it needs to go up 100% just to get back, so smart entries after steep drops can double your money on a bounce.
When These Pullbacks Are Opportunity: The Case of Market Leaders
Stocks like Eli Lilly, UNH, Novo Nordisk, ASML, AMD, or Lululemon are examples of quality growth companies that sometimes undergo sharp, hype-driven sell-offs.
Recent history shows:
- Eli Lilly, UNH or Novo Nordisk : Leaders in innovative health solutions, frequently see pullbacks despite strong demand in their sectors.
💊 NYSE:LLY (Down up to 30%)
Most analysts are highly bullish on Eli Lilly , with most giving it a "Strong Buy" rating. The 12-month consensus price target ranges between $956 and $1,016 , suggesting a 25–32% upside from current levels . Optimism is driven by strong momentum in its obesity and diabetes drug pipeline, especially GLP-1 treatments like orforglipron. Risks include high valuation and dependence on future drug approvals.
Technically speaking, Eli Lilly is currently trading within a channel , also known as a flag pattern when it forms during a bull trend. There are two common ways to trade this setup:
You can either wait for the price to drop to the bottom of the channel for a lower-risk entry, or wait for an upside breakout to join the rally at its strongest point.
Both approaches are considered low-risk, high-reward trades. However, entering a position right now is not ideal , as there is still room for the price to decline before a potential breakout in this premium stock.
💊 NYSE:UNH (Down up to 60%)
The Analysts are generally positive on UnitedHealth Group , despite recent challenges like CEO changes and regulatory concerns. Most believe the company has strong fundamentals and expect it to recover over time. The average 12-month price target ranges from $380 to $400, which suggests a potential upside of over 60% from current levels . While a few firms have lowered their outlook, the majority still recommend buying the stock.
Technically speaking , the price dropped after breaking below its support zone (red).
It briefly paused in a first support area (blue), where some optimistic buyers stepped in, but eventually continued down to a more important zone.
The green area marks the main trading zone from before COVID , with high volume and strong interest, this is where many institutional investors are likely to see value and start buying this premium stock again .
Interestingly, analysts’ average price targets are below the previous support, suggesting a possible pullback to that area. If this happens, it could mean a 60% to 90% rally for UNH from current levels (though some further decline within the green zone is still possible and as we saw at the start, even more profits!).
💊 NYSE:NVO (Down up to 70%)
Analysts have a cautious but constructive outlook on Novo Nordisk, with an average 12‑month price target of around $80.
While some firms maintain buy ratings, many have recently lowered their views amid mounting competition from Eli Lilly and concerns over copycat semaglutide products depressing growth. A few stronger bulls still point to the long-term potential in obesity and diabetes markets as reasons for future upside. Others see significant headwinds, noting falling demand for legacy drugs and disappointing trial outcomes such as CagriSema setbacks. Overall, most analysts expect a recovery from current levels.
Technically speaking , the price dropped after breaking below a Head and Shoulders pattern , which led to a sharp decline in Novo Nordisk's stock.
The price has now reached a key previous support zone, where the Volume Profile (VRVP) shows significant activity, this often suggests institutional investors may start buying again, viewing the current levels as a bargain. While it's wise to be cautious ahead of tomorrow’s earnings report, the overall downside risk appears limited, given the company’s strong cash flow and solid product pipeline.
That said, investor expectations around obesity and diabetes treatments are no longer as optimistic as they were a few years ago, which could weigh on future growth. Still, from a technical and fundamental standpoint, this area may offer an attractive entry point to sell at $80 for a 70% profit!
Other well-known stocks that could present an amazing opportunity soon include NASDAQ:LULU , EURONEXT:ASML , NYSE:MRK , NASDAQ:PEP , SPOT NYSE:SPOT or $NYSE:PFE. Right now, I don’t see strong patterns in these charts , but they’re approaching interesting buy zones. I’ll be keeping a close eye on them, just in case a setup starts to form.
These tickers, as of August 2025, stand well below consensus price targets, so a recovery from current levels toward analyst consensus highs could deliver powerful returns.
⚠️ An example of previous opportunities
I like to understand the past before trying to predict the future , so it’s fair to show some previous examples of stocks that were "on sale."
The first example is NASDAQ:META
A well-known premium stock that experienced a massive crash during 2021 and 2022 due to the failure of its metaverse strategy. The stock lost more than 75% of its value , a truly astonishing drop. During this period, a falling wedge pattern formed on the chart , indicating that bearish sentiment was fading. After confirming the pattern, the stock went on to rally more than 700% , yes, you read that right, a 700% rally followed.
Later, another crisis, this time triggered by Trump, hit the stock, causing a sharp 35% drop in just a few weeks. Eventually, the price reached a strong buy zone (high VRVP and previous important supports), and in the weeks that followed, we’ve seen a 63% rally that is still unfolding.
During 2025 , we’ve also seen
NASDAQ:NVDA fall 35%, only to come back with a 110% rally .
NASDAQ:MSFT dropped 25% and then delivered an impressive 60% gain afterward.
NYSE:ORCL lost 40% in just a few months, and now we’re seeing a massive rally, up 120% , even outperforming NVDA. Simply amazing.
🚀 Finally, some previous published ideas based on the same principle:
⭐ Buying COINBASE:XRPUSD after a large decline (Yes, the methodology also work for other assets!)
⭐ Buying NASDAQ:DLTR at the bottom, after a 65% decline to enjoy a (for now) 90% rally.
⭐ Buying AMEX:GROY after doing two Double Bottoms and breaking the resistances for a 25% rally.
You can find more Ideas on my profile, always based on Chart patterns with low risk and high returns profile .
⏳ Entry Timing: Rely On Technical Patterns, Not Indicators
The key to entering these stocks efficiently isn’t about moving averages, RSI, or fundamentals. It’s about reading price action, volumes and technical chart patterns that reflect buyer behavior and sentiment shift.
Some famous examples:
- Double Bottom : Two clear lows near the same support zone, signaling sellers are losing strength and buyers may take control. The breakout above the intermediate high is usually a decisive signal of a trend reversal. I have published multiple ideas with double bottoms recently.
- Hammer Candle at Support : After a strong decline, a single candle with a short body and a long lower wick near a known support. This shows aggressive intraday buying, hinting that the sell-off momentum is vanishing.
- High Volume at Support: While volume isn’t a classic “indicator,” a surge in transactions as price holds support often marks institutional buying, confirming higher conviction in a potential bottom. Also the VRVP lateral indicator is a great help to know price levels with masive volume.
Spotting these technical structures on stocks deeply “on sale” lets you step in with a skewed risk/reward: your downside is defined (below support), your upside is open (toward recovery), and your edge comes from patient pattern recognition, not luck.
The TradingView screener is a great tool for finding “on-sale” stocks by filtering based on % Change. Pro Tip : The % Change is set to 1-day by default, but you can adjust it to show up to 1 month using the blue dropdown at the top.
After that, you have pattern recognition indicators like double bottoms or the VRVP for volume zones which are both AMAZING.
🔍 Visualize the Opportunity
Here’s your roadmap :
1. Scan for sharp declines in leading names, ideally those with price objectives far above current prices.
2. Strong technical pattern (double bottom, hammer on support, high-volume reversal days).
3. Wait for confirmation of pattern completion with renewed bullish price action or buy in the support, that is risky, but gives a unique risk reweard ratio when it works!
4. Act decisively when patterns confirm, your entry is efficient, your risk controlled, and your recovery math is in your favor.
> Remember : Technical patterns are your best ally for timing entries during periods of panic-driven price drops. Used well, they help you capture robust returns with clear risk management, making market sell-offs a trader’s opportunity, not a threat.
It seems that this August is a good month to start practicing finding bargains.
💬 Does this post helped you?
🚀 Hit the rocket if this helped you spot the opportunity and follow for more clean, educational Chart Patterns trade ideas!
DOW THEORYBack to the Roots: Learn the Theory, Improve Signal
Charles Dow
Before we explore Dow Theory, let’s take a moment to understand who Charles Dow was — and why his ideas still matter today.
Charles Dow wasn’t a financial expert. He was a journalist with a sharp eye for market behavior. In the late 1800s, he began to write about how prices move, how trends form, and what they might mean. His goal was simple: to bring structure and logic to the chaotic world of stock prices.
More importantly, he believed that markets move in trends , and that these trends reflect the collective psychology of all investors. This basic idea became the starting point of technical analysis .
Dow created one of the first stock indexes, which helped investors see the bigger picture instead of focusing only on individual stocks. He also promoted transparency in financial data — long before it was required by law.
In 1889, Dow co-founded The Wall Street Journal, a newspaper that became the voice of financial markets. Through its pages, he published his observations on price behavior, setting the foundation for what would later be known as Dow Theory .
Dow Theory
At the heart of Dow Theory lies a simple but powerful idea:
The market discounts everything.
This means that all known information — earnings reports, interest rates, economic events, political changes, and even future expectations — is already reflected in the price. Price is not random. It is the result of collective investor behavior based on all available knowledge.
Charles Dow didn’t write this exact sentence, but his work clearly reflected this belief. He trusted that by analyzing price movements alone, one could understand the overall direction of the market — because price already includes all the important signals.
Dow and later analysts outlined a set of guiding principles. These are now known as the Six Core Principles of Dow Theory , and they continue to serve as a foundation for modern technical analysis.
The market discounts everything
The market moves in three trends
Major trends have three phases
Averages must confirm each other
Volume confirms the trend
A trend stays in place until it clearly reverses
🔸🔸🔸 The Market Moves in Three Trends 🔸🔸🔸
According to Dow Theory, market movements are not random. Prices move in three different dimensions and time frames: the primary trend , the secondary trend , and the minor (short-term) trend. These three types of movement often occur at the same time. It is very important for an investor to distinguish between them.
The primary trend shows the general direction of the market and can last for months or even years. It’s the major upward or downward movement.
The secondary trend refers to corrections or pullbacks that move in the opposite direction of the primary trend.
The minor trend typically consists of daily or weekly fluctuations and is often considered market “noise.” These short-term movements can occur in the same or opposite direction of the primary trend and may last from a few hours to two or three weeks.
Dow Theory emphasizes that understanding this three-layered structure can protect investors from many mistakes. The theory not only classifies trends but also offers valuable lessons about investor behavior.
It especially highlights the importance of three key principles:
Don’t go against the main trend
Short-term moves can easily confuse traders. Trading against the primary trend often leads to losses. That is why it is crucial to identify the main trend and follow it.
Diversify your exposure
In Dow’s time, technology wasn’t as advanced as it is today, but he still followed multiple indexes (like industrials and transport) to reduce risk. The same principle applies today: investors shouldn’t rely on a single asset — diversification remains a critical part of managing risk.
Define your holding period before entering a trade
Each type of trend comes with a different time expectation. The holding period you choose will play a key role in shaping your trading strategy and aligning it with your financial goals. Instead of debating how long each type of trend should last, it’s more important to define your intended holding period before entering a position.
Your answer to the question “Which holding period suits me?” reflects not only your trading style and lifestyle, but also determines which chart timeframes and indicator timeframes you should use.
🔸🔸🔸 Major Trends Have Three Phases 🔸🔸🔸
According to Dow Theory, major (primary) trends consist of three phases. This structure reflects how investor psychology changes over time and how those emotions are reflected in price action. Regardless of whether the trend is bullish or bearish, each major trend includes these three stages:
Accumulation Phase
The first stage of a bull market often looks like a small bounce during a bear trend. Most people still feel negative about the market. They are afraid to buy again after losing money. Trading volume is low, and prices move in a narrow range. The market stops making new lows, but investors are still unsure. Many have left the market or are very careful now. The price action becomes slow and sideways. It feels boring. But during this quiet time, smart investors slowly start buying. This is how a new trend begins — silently and with doubt.
However, there is no clear signal that a bull market has started. Buying now carries two big risks. First, the market may still go lower. Second, even if a bull trend is coming, no one knows when it will start. How long can you wait while the market does nothing? Holding positions in a flat market has costs — financial, emotional, and missed opportunities elsewhere. That’s why this phase is difficult for most traders to handle.
Public Participation Phase
The market begins to recover, and the broader investor base starts to notice positive changes. News improves, technical indicators give bullish signals. Prices rise, and trading volume increases. This is usually the strongest part of the trend. At this stage, more disciplined and research-driven investors — who follow the market closely — start buying in. They see confirmation in both price action and economic data. Their confidence supports the trend, and momentum grows. The market attracts more attention. Confidence replaces fear. Many investors who stayed out during the earlier phase now feel safer to enter.
Joining the market during this phase is important. The trend is already underway, but there’s still room to grow. Risk is lower than in the early phase, and potential rewards are still high. For many investors, this is the best time to take a position.
Excess Phase
The market enters a phase of excessive optimism. Prices have been rising for a long time, attracting more and more participants. However, during this stage, institutional investors and professional traders who entered earlier begin to gradually take profits.
Although prices remain high, momentum weakens, and the rate of increase slows down. Looking at the volume profile, prices may reach new highs but often without volume support. Technical indicators frequently show bearish divergences. These conditions generate early technical signals that the primary trend may be coming to an end.
🔸🔸🔸 Averages must Confirm Each Other 🔸🔸🔸
According to Dow Theory, a market trend is considered valid only when different indexes move in the same direction. The term “average” here refers to an index or the general direction of a price series. This principle is used to assess whether a price movement is supported by broad market participation.
A single index reaching a new high or low is not enough. For a real and sustainable trend to be confirmed, related indexes are expected to show similar movement and generate signals in the same direction. If this confirmation is missing, the current move may be considered weak or temporary.
How to Analyze It:
Identify related indexes
Choose multiple indexes that represent the same market, sector, or economic domain.
Compare trend direction
Review the price structures of the selected indexes. Are they all showing similar patterns? Did the new highs or lows form around the same time?
Look for confirmation
If multiple indexes form new structures in the same direction (e.g., all make new highs in an uptrend), this increases the validity of the trend.If only one index is moving while others are not participating, confirmation is lacking.
Be cautious without confirmation
When confirmation is missing, trading strategies should be more conservative, or additional signals should be awaited before taking action.
🔸🔸🔸 Volume Confirms the Trend 🔸🔸🔸
According to Dow Theory, the validity of a market trend depends not only on price movement but also on trading volume. For a trend to be considered strong and sustainable, price action should be supported by volume.
Why Is Volume Important?
In a rising market, increasing volume is expected. This indicates growing investor interest and broader participation in the trend.
In a falling market, if the decline happens with high volume, it suggests serious selling pressure and strengthens the trend.
Declining volume may signal a loss of momentum and suggest that the current trend is weakening or nearing its end.
How to Analyze It:
Observe the relationship between price and volume:
Price rising + volume increasing → Strong trend
Price rising + volume decreasing → Lack of confirmation; caution is advised
Check volume during breakouts:
If resistance or highs are broken with strong volume → Reliable signal
If breakouts happen on low volume → May indicate a false move (fakeout)
🔸🔸🔸 A Trend Persists Until a Clear Reversal Occurs 🔸🔸🔸
This core principle of Dow Theory is at the heart of all trend-following strategies.
It states that once a price begins moving in a certain direction, the trend is assumed to continue — until there is clear and technically confirmed evidence that it has ended.
Why Is This Principle Important?
Follow, don’t predict
Instead of guessing what the market will do next, traders stay with the current direction.
Reduces emotional decisions
Trades are based on technical signals, not assumptions like “the price is too high, it must fall.”
A weak trend is not the same as a reversal
Not every pullback means the trend is over. You need clear confirmation before assuming a reversal — such as a breakdown, volume shift, momentum loss, or structural change.
How to Apply It
First, identify the trend direction clearly, and trade in that direction.
Pullbacks are seen as normal movements within the trend — not as reversals.
Even when signs of a reversal appear, wait for confirmation before acting.
Confirmation signals may include:
Failure to form new highs or lows
A break of previous support or resistance
Sudden drop in volume or volume rising in the opposite direction
Weakness or divergence in momentum indicators
Strategic Benefit
This principle is especially useful in trend-following strategies. It helps avoid premature exits and allows traders to stay in profitable trends longer. By focusing on technical confirmation instead of speculation or panic, it encourages disciplined and systematic decision-making.
Meta Platforms (META) Shares DeclineMeta Platforms (META) Shares Decline
Shares of the US tech giant Meta Platforms (META) hit a record high last week, climbing above $780 following the release of a strong earnings report:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.14, significantly exceeding the forecast of $5.88.
→ The company also outperformed expectations on key metrics related to advertising growth.
→ Additionally, the media has highlighted the growing importance of AI technology to Meta’s business.
However, shortly after reaching an all-time high, META shares began to show bearish momentum.
Technical Analysis of the META Chart
On the four-hour chart, the following signals are visible:
→ A bearish engulfing pattern formed on Thursday;
→ A bearish gap appeared at Friday’s market open, followed by a continuation of the downward move.
This represents a notable pullback from the historical peak — potentially indicating that the initial bullish reaction to the earnings report has faded. The share price decline suggests a correction from overbought territory, as confirmed by the RSI indicator.
The $740 level appears to be a key support zone — previously acting as major resistance before the breakout. Bulls could also find support from the median line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has been developing since mid-May.
Given this context, a scenario in which bulls attempt to resume the uptrend within the ascending channel cannot be ruled out, especially considering the company’s strong fundamentals and the presence of multiple technical support levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?
Since the last post the USOIL has already declined on 2.5%, currently rebounding from SMA50 on 4-h chart. 2 main reasons are behind this.
On August 3, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their partners, collectively known as OPEC+, decided to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the latest in a series of swift production boosts aimed at regaining market share. They cited a robust economic outlook and low inventories as the reasons for their decision. However, Friday NFP report may signal of a potential recession risk in the United States, the biggest oil consumer in the world. Here is what the Goldman Sachs writes down in x.com: "The decline in employment growth over the previous two months in the July report was one of the largest since 1960 and was accompanied by several months of similar revisions earlier. Corrections of this magnitude are extremely rare outside of the recession period."
So, fundamentals don't favor oil and despite the current rebound from SMA50, there are low chances of developing some bullish momentum here. The pullback from 6,800.00 is expected with the following decline towards 6,500.00
Small Caps: Rebound or rollover at 200DMA?Near-term price action in U.S. small-cap stocks may be instructive for assessing longer-term directional risks, with the contract trading near the key 200-day simple moving average.
Despite breaking uptrend support and extending the bearish move late last week, buying dips remains the preferred strategy unless there’s clear evidence the U.S. economy is sliding into recession—an outcome unlikely to be resolved near-term with only second-tier economic data on the calendar this week. That also means market pricing for just under 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by mid-2026 is unlikely to shift dramatically, helping to support risk appetite.
If the contract can reclaim the 200DMA and hold there, longs could be initiated with a stop beneath the level for protection against reversal. 2192 is an early hurdle for bulls with a break of that level opening the door for a run towards 2240 or even 2278.
Alternatively, if the contract remains capped beneath the 200DMA, the setup could be flipped with shorts established below the level and a stop above. Friday’s low and 2133 are obvious near-term targets, with support at 2075 the next downside level after that.
Momentum indicators remain mixed despite rolling over in late July, placing more weight on price action rather than any firm directional bias.
Good luck!
DS
US 30 Index – Potential Rebound or Deeper Retracement Ahead?Just as the US 30 became the last of the three major US indices to register a new all time high last Monday at 45160, on a final wave of positivity generated by the announcement of a trade deal between the US and EU, it was snatched away again as traders used the up move to take profit on longs.
This initial fall evolved into 5 straight daily declines which took the index from its record high of 45160 on Monday to a Friday close at 43591 as the sell off accelerated, driven by disappointment of a more hawkish than expected Fed, a new wave of trade tariffs from President Trump, weaker Amazon earnings , and on Friday, perhaps the biggest surprise of all, a Non-farm Payrolls release that showed the US labour market may be weakening faster than anticipated.
Looking forward, with the shock of Friday’s data reverberating through markets, US 30 traders still have lots to think about this week. The US ISM Services PMI release is due at 1500 BST on Tuesday. Service activity has been the major driver of growth in the US economy for the last 18 months, so this new update could have a big influence over where the US 30 index moves next. Any reading below 50 = economic contraction, while readings above 50 = economic expansion, and traders could well be focused on how this month’s print stacks up against last month’s reading of 50.8.
The earnings releases of 3 bellwether US corporates may also be relevant, given their US 30 index weightings. Caterpillar reports its Q2 results before the market open on Tuesday, with McDonald’s and Walt Disney reporting before the open on Wednesday. Traders may be looking to compare actual earnings against expected, alongside assessing any future revenue guidance that is provided against the current trade tariff operating environment.
Now, while the US 30 index has opened this new trading week on a more stable footing, currently trading up 0.25% at 43705 at the time of writing (0530 BST), assessing the technical outlook for the week ahead could also be useful for traders.
Technical Update: Deeper Retracement Risk Emerging?
While it might be argued that it was the reaction to the latest US employment data that saw US equities encounter fresh selling pressure, as the chart below shows, prices were already declining into Friday’s payrolls release.
Price weakness was materialising in the US 30 index right after it posted its new all-time high on Monday July 28th at 45160, and traders might now argue that last Thursday’s close below support provided by the Bollinger mid-average, currently at 44412, was the first potential indication that a more extended phase of price weakness was possible. The case was then perhaps strengthened by Friday’s negative reaction to the payrolls data, which saw closing breaks under support provided by the July 16th last correction low at 43770.
There is of course no guarantee that this price action will result in a retracement of the April 7th (36440) to July 28th strength (45160), but assessing what may be the potential support and resistance levels to monitor this week could be helpful, if the recent volatility continues to dominate price action at the start of August.
Possible Support Levels:
Last week’s price decline held at the 43337 level which was the August 1st low, and having previously found buyers at this point, they may be found again. As such, this 43337 level could now prove to be the first support focus for the week ahead.
Closing breaks below 43337, if seen, could lead to the possibility of further price declines, opening potential to test the next support at 41824, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April to July 2025 price strength (see chart above).
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having now seen the Bollinger mid-average for the US 30 index turn lower after last week’s fall, this may now be the first resistance level to watch on any subsequent rally higher. It currently stands at 44442 and watching how this level is defended on a closing basis could be useful.
If a more sustained phase of price strength is to materialise, it could be closing breaks above the mid-average at 44442 that increases the possibility of it happening. Such moves could then see retests of the July 28th all-time high at 45160, possibly higher if this level is then breached on a closing basis.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Let's learn & Apply Elliott Wave Rules on chart: BTCUSD BitcoinHello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Friends, Today we are going to learn 3 Rules of the Elliott Wave theory, there are three principles and some patterns. Impulses move in a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern, either as an impulse or a motive wave. However, within impulses, there are three rules:
Rule No 1:
Wave 2 will never retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Rule No 2:
Wave 3 will never be the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5; it can be the largest, but never the smallest.
Rule No 3:
Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1, except in diagonals or triangles; in impulses, it cannot overlap.
We've checked these three rules and marked them with separate tick marks on the chart with different colors, making them clearly visible. You can review the chart and verify these rules yourself, learning how wave principles are applied and checked.
We've explained all this through a drawing on the chart, so we won't elaborate further here. Moving forward, let's analyze what the wave theory suggests about the current market trend. This entire analysis is shared for Educational purposes only.
I hope you'll consider this educational post as a learning resource, Definitely, I encourage you to review the chart as an image or picture to better understand the concepts we've worked hard to explain.
Our effort will be successful if you gain a deeper understanding and learn something new from this post. If you find this helpful and informative, our hard work will have paid off. Please keep this in mind as you review the material.
Now let's explore how wave counts within wave counts, or lower degrees within higher degrees, unfold through complete wave theory patterns and following theory Rules all the times.
Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart we've analyzed using Elliott Waves. From this perspective, it's clear that the Intermediate Degree Wave (2) concluded around June 23rd.
After this, we observe that the internal wave counts of the lower degree, specifically Wave 1-2-3 (in red) have completed their cycle of Minor degree. Furthermore, Red Wave 4 of same Minor degree has been moving sideways, characterized by a downward trend.
Notably, the fall of Red Wave 4 is classified as a Minor Degree movement. Interestingly, this downward movement appears to have terminated in an even lower degree, namely the Minute Degree, which we've marked in black as ((w))-((x))-((y))-((xx))-((z)) that means Wave 4 of Minor degree (in Red) is complete.
Given that Red Wave 4 Minor has reached its conclusion, it's highly plausible that Wave 5 has initiated. This development suggests that Bitcoin is poised to make a significant move.
Moving on to the analysis, we observe that:
- Rule 1: Wave 2 has not retraced more than 100% of Wave 1, so this rule is intact.
- Rule 2: Wave 3 is not the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5, so this rule is also valid.
- Rule 3: Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1, so this rule is also satisfied.
Bitcoin is all set to shake things up! We eagerly anticipate further rallies in the market.
This post is shared purely for educational purpose & it’s Not a trading advice.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Figma Stock Goes Parabolic in Market Debut — Should You Buy?Figma stock NYSE:FIG more than tripled on IPO day. But that’s not thanks to the Figma guys — they had agreed to sell the company to Adobe NASDAQ:ADBE just two years ago.
Figma stock NYSE:FIG made a spectacular entrance into public markets last week — and then some. Shares of the design software firm surged 250% in their debut Thursday and climbed another 5% Friday, pushing the company’s fully diluted valuation to about half the size of Adobe NASDAQ:ADBE , the company that once tried to acquire Figma for $20 billion before regulators shut it down.
It’s a strong showing for the IPO market and a signal that investors are still willing to pay up for growth — even if the valuation raises more than a few eyebrows.
💸 $33 Becomes $118: Here’s What Happened
Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share on Wednesday, above the already-raised target range of $30–$32. The stock opened at $85, hit highs around $120, and closed the day up 250% . It ended Friday at $122, giving the company a fully diluted valuation of roughly $70 billion.
Quick stat: Figma pulled in $749 million in revenue last year. That means Figma’s price-to-sales ratio is sitting close to 94x. By contrast, Adobe trades at just under 11x sales. Froth or not?
📈 Growth Is Real — But So Is Volatility
The one big thing in Figma’s favor is growth. The company increased revenue by 48% last year and by another 46% in Q1 2025. But profitability is uneven. It posted a net loss of $732 million last year — a reversal from a $737 million profit in 2023 that was mostly boosted by a $1 billion breakup fee from Adobe. Without that one-off, the business hasn’t been consistently profitable.
In Q1 of this year, however, Figma did turn a small profit of $44.9 million. That’s a good sign — but it’s not enough to embrace a 94x multiple.
🤝 Who Uses Figma and Why It Matters
Figma isn’t just a trendy tool for designers — it’s widely used across big tech. Clients include Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX , Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN , Spotify NYSE:SPOT , and even the finance bros over at Vanguard. The software allows real-time collaboration, making it pretty attractive for remote or hybrid teams.
Its browser-based model and freemium pricing helped it spread fast during the pandemic, and now it’s seen as essential software for modern digital product teams. If you’ve ever opened a figma.com link during a Zoom call, you already know. “Can everyone see my screen?”
💎 Figma, the Bitcoin Holder
In a twist that feels very 2025, Figma disclosed in its filings that it holds Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The company invested $55 million in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF AMEX:BITB in March 2024 — and by March 2025, that stake had grown to nearly $70 million. They also bought $30 million worth of USD Coin CRYPTOCAP:USDC , which they plan to convert into more Bitcoin later on.
Figma’s treasury strategy echoes moves by companies like Strategy NASDAQ:MSTR , GameStop NYSE:GME , and Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA , and signals a growing trend among tech companies holding crypto on the balance sheet. It also adds another layer of volatility to Figma’s investment profile — though bulls might see it as a hedge.
🧾 IPO Cash and What Comes Next
Figma, as the newest entrant into the US stock market , raised over $1.2 billion from its IPO, capital it says will be used for general corporate purposes, product development, and potential acquisitions. Given its ambitious roadmap, that kind of cash cushion could help sustain growth — especially as it scales up competition with Adobe, Sketch, Canva, and Notion.
That said, being public also means new (and painful) expectations. Traders and investors will want to see steady top-line expansion, margin improvement, and a path to sustainable profit.
👀 Should You Buy the Stock Now?
The enthusiasm is clear — but so is the premium. Buying Figma now means paying 94x revenue for a company with promising growth but no long-term track record of profitability. That’s a tough sell for value investors but par for the course in growth tech — at least during bullish cycles.
If you're a long-term believer in the design software space and Figma's competitive edge, you may see upside. But for others, it might be worth watching a few quarters of earnings before jumping in. IPOs often pull back once the first wave of euphoria fades (and the insiders dump their stakes).
👉 Bottom Line
Figma’s market debut was one of the most successful of 2025 so far. The company has the brand, the user base, and the growth metrics to somewhat justify serious investor interest. But it also has a premium valuation and a patchy history of profitability.
Earlier this year, CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV (cloud computing and AI) and Circle Internet Group NYSE:CRCL (the stablecoin guys) stunned Wall Street with similarly turbocharged entries. It’s a unicorn stampede, and investors are chasing them like it’s 2021 all over again.
Off to you : Are you buying NYSE:FIG ? Holding off? Or just admiring the charts like a good minimalist designer?
ATEC - NEW 52-WEEK HIGHATEC - CURRENT PRICE : 13.77
ATEC made a new 52-week high last Friday with burst in trading activity. Look at the volume pointed by red arrows. On 31 Oct 2024 there was a significant gap up with high volume, from there the stock continue rises - indicating strong buying interest. Now same scenario happens - gap up with strong volume (hint a strong bullish momentum). Take note also that there is a rising support line - indicating demand is getting higher. There is possibility that the stock may trend higher in near term.
ENTRY PRICE : 13.15 - 13.80
TARGET : 16.50 and 18.70
SUPPORT : 12.75
SpySo.... I'm looking for a rebound this week early on from Smallcaps, banks, and cyclical. All last week everything non tech sold off.. it all started with TVC:NYA hitting this monthly trendline
As you can see, this has been resistance for about 5yrs and every time it has tagged , a correction has followed. To make matters worse , July monthly candle finished with a gravestone doji reversal. Monthly grave stone reversal means that the trend has likely flipped and for the next few months at least until Oct things will flip bearish for all things non tech.
but right now for this week, I think all things non tech gets a big bounce at least early on
Why do I say a bounce is coming? Well the hourly technicals for things non tech went way oversold. On top of that look at the daily BBand on NYA and AMEX:IWM
With standing World war 3 or Powell firing you will get smoked if you short this. This is why my favorite longs early this week are Smallcaps and banks.
Focusing on big tech..
If you didn't know that this market runs on a tech bubble then last weeks divergence was your wake up call.
Neither, Dow,IWM or NYA made a new high but the QQQ and spy did.
With that being said you will only know if the spy has topped by keeping track of the NASDAQ..
Qqq
Over the next 2weeks I think Qqq will retest that breakout of 538-540 which is around the 50ma
This drop will bring spy down to 610 retest.
But first I think there is extremely high chance Qqq retest it's 20sma to the upside at 560 to the upside before heading down
I prefer the short up there at 560 but be aware that price could trade between 550-560 to form a H&S
In a move of extreme fawkery we could get a double top instead
But that will only come off Qqq breaks back over 565
Overall, I don't really like big tech long this week. You may have some making moves but it will be a spotty picture with some green and most red or choppy.
The break below the 20sma on Qqq and all tech indexes
AMEX:XLK
NASDAQ:SMH
AMEX:XLC
Means the trend has changed to bearish.. as a trader one of the rules that has helped me is
Swing the trend and scalp the counter trend..
If the market is bullish then you swing calls and scalp puts.
If the market is bearish , you swing puts and scalps calls.
As far as swinging puts this week, just keep your eye on the 20ma of your favorite index/Stock. Once price retest the 20ma , that is the best entry for the short IMO.
The weekly bearish engulfing means that's by WED-Thurs you should stop trading calls and look for market to roll over for more downside.
Spy
Hourly
As long as the market opens above 617, you want to scalp the long early in the week with your target of 626-628.
I don't know if they will close this gap or not, it will most likely depend on Qqq breaking above 560.
Below 617 and 610 comes.
If price pushes above 629 , I wouldn't chase calls here. That double bearish engulfing on daily Time frame is no joke, and price will likely no break above 640.
Trade idea of the week is
AMEX:IWM
200sma is at 216.50
Over 217.00 and I like calls to close gap at 219.40.
Price could push up to 20sma at 222 but from there I like the short back down targeting 210
How to Use Engulfing Candles in TradingViewEngulfing patterns are among the most powerful candlestick formations because they signal strong momentum shifts and can help you spot dramatic trend reversal opportunities.
What You'll Learn:
• How to identify valid engulfing formations where one candle completely covers another's body
• The two types: bullish engulfing (green candle engulfs red) and bearish engulfing (red candle engulfs green)
• Psychology behind engulfing patterns: when one side completely overwhelms the other
• Using volume analysis to confirm engulfing pattern validity
• Finding meaningful engulfing patterns at trend highs and lows for reversal setups
• Timeframe considerations for engulfing analysis on any chart period
• Step-by-step trading strategy for engulfing reversal setups
• Setting proper stop losses above engulfing candle highs
• Determining profit targets below engulfing candle lows
• Managing wide-range drawdowns common with strong momentum shifts
• Advanced entry technique: waiting for retracements to improve risk-reward ratios
This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to use powerful candlestick patterns to identify significant momentum changes.
The strategies covered could assist you in creating effective reversal setups when strong buying or selling pressure appears at key price levels.
Learn more about futures trading with Tradingview: optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
XRP 4H – Double Bottom… or Just Another Lower High?
XRP bounced cleanly from major support — the same zone that sparked its last leg up.
This could mark the early stages of a double bottom or just another bear market rally before continuation.
🔹 Previous top = strong supply rejection
🔹 Current support = high-volume bounce zone
🔹 Stoch RSI turning up from oversold
Key confirmation would be:
– Break of $3.15
– Retest + continuation
Otherwise? Another fakeout lower high could trap longs.
Yoga Pants, Tariffs, and Upside: The $LULU BetLululemon NASDAQ:LULU - My Investment Thesis 👖
Hey team,
I've been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:LULU for a while, and I'm finally going to pull the trigger.
In this market of overhyped MAG 7 stocks, Lululemon dropped 62% since its high in Dec. 2023 until now.
Here's why I'm into LULU:
Revenue has been growing every year for 5 years. Still, the stock is at its lowest in 5 years.
Growth has been slower in the US but good in Asia.
Net income has also been growing over the last 3 years.
P/E ratio is at 13, the lowest in many years.
Stock is also beat up because of the tariffs.
Analysts at Morningstar put its fair value at $305 (now $193, giving it an upside of 58%).
Product Innovation: New franchises like Daydrift, Shake It Out, and Align No Line have been well-received and will continue to drive sales.
Lululemon recently announced an expansion into India for 2026, with plans to open a physical store and a partnership with Tata CLiQ, the e-commerce arm of India’s largest business conglomerate, Tata Group. India can be a huge market for Lulu.
There's also intense competition and margin erosion.
Saying this, I kinda see people around me less excited about Lululemon products.
Technical Analysis:
My EVaR - Entropic Value at Risk - is in a low risk area.
RSI is oversold.
Price has been under the 200 MA for too long.
I'm going to proceed with caution on this one, and allocate approximately. 0.5% of my portfolio into it.
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
Chart Patterns - How to read them like a ProChart patterns are visual formations on price charts that help traders anticipate potential market movements.
These patterns fall into three main categories: bullish , bearish , and indecisive .
---
1. Bullish Chart Patterns
Bullish patterns often signal that price is likely to move upward.
1.1 Bull Flag
* What it looks like: A sharp upward move followed by a small downward-sloping rectangle (the flag).
* Meaning: After a strong rally, the price consolidates briefly before continuing higher.
* Key insight: A breakout above the flag typically signals a continuation of the trend.
1.2 Pennant (Bullish)
* What it looks like: A strong upward move followed by a small symmetrical triangle.
* Meaning: Similar to the bull flag, but the consolidation takes a triangular form.
* Key insight: Once price breaks above the pennant, the uptrend often resumes.
1.3 Cup & Handle
* What it looks like: A “U”-shaped curve (the cup) followed by a small downward drift (the handle).
* Meaning: This pattern suggests a period of accumulation before price breaks higher.
* Key insight: A breakout above the handle signals the beginning of a new bullish leg.
1.4 Inverse Head & Shoulders
* What it looks like: Three low points, with the middle low being the deepest.
* Meaning: This reversal pattern appears after a downtrend and signals a potential change to an uptrend.
* Key insight: A breakout above the “neckline” confirms the reversal.
---
2. Indecisive Chart Patterns
These patterns show market hesitation, where neither bulls nor bears are clearly in control.
2.1 Consolidation Channel
* What it looks like: Price moves within a horizontal channel.
* Meaning: Market is moving sideways with no strong trend.
* Key insight: A breakout in either direction often leads to a significant move.
2.2 Symmetrical Triangle
* What it looks like: Two converging trend lines forming a triangle.
* Meaning: This is a neutral pattern that can break out in either direction.
* Key insight: Traders wait for a breakout before taking a position.
---
3. Bearish Chart Patterns
Bearish patterns signal a high probability of downward price movement.
3.1 Bear Flag
* What it looks like: A sharp decline followed by a small upward-sloping rectangle.
* Meaning: After a strong drop, price consolidates before continuing lower.
* Key insight: A breakout below the flag suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
3.2 Pennant (Bearish)
* What it looks like: A sharp downward move followed by a small symmetrical triangle.
* Meaning: Similar to the bear flag, but the consolidation takes a triangular form.
* Key insight: A breakout downward typically resumes the bearish trend.
3.3 Inverse Cup & Handle
* What it looks like: An upside-down cup with a small upward drift forming the handle.
* Meaning: Indicates weakness after an uptrend, often followed by a drop.
* Key insight: A break below the handle usually signals a strong bearish move.
3.4 Head & Shoulders
* What it looks like: Three peaks, with the middle one being the highest.
* Meaning: A classic reversal pattern that indicates a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
* Key insight: A break below the “neckline” confirms the bearish reversal.
---
How to Use These Patterns
* Combine pattern recognition with support/resistance, volume, and indicators for stronger confirmation.
* Always wait for breakouts and avoid acting too early.
* Manage risk with stop-loss orders.
Broadcom (AVGO): Is This the Dip You've Been Waiting For?Broadcom (AVGO) has been demonstrating a remarkably strong bullish trend since early April, carving out a clear path of higher highs and higher lows. This robust upward momentum is well-defined by a series of ascending channels.
Trend and Channel Dynamics:
Initially, we observed price action moving steadily within a well-established ascending green channel. The stock showed consistent respect for the channel's boundaries, indicating controlled yet persistent buying pressure. More recently, AVGO broke out above the upper boundary of this initial channel, suggesting an acceleration in momentum. This breakout led the stock into a new, steeper ascending channel, which it has largely been respecting since late June/early July.
Current Price Action and Retracement:
AVGO is currently trading around the $294.10 mark. After reaching a peak just above $307, the stock appears to be undergoing a healthy pullback. This retracement is a natural part of any strong uptrend, allowing for consolidation and the absorption of profit-taking.
Key Support Levels to Watch:
Intermediate Support ($283 to $288): Our first crucial area of interest is the intermediate support zone between $283 and $288. This level aligns closely with prior areas of consolidation and, importantly, the lower boundary of the most recent ascending channel. A test of this area would be a typical and healthy retest of previous resistance now turned support, and a bounce here would signal continued strength within the current channel.
Key "Good Level" Support ($260 to 270) This zone is highlighted as a "good level" for a reason. It perfectly aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent major swing low to high:
The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $275.76 sits just above this zone. The crucial 0.618 Fibonacci level is at $268.28. This 'golden ratio' is frequently a strong reversal point in healthy pullbacks. The 0.71 Fibonacci level at $262.44 reinforces the strength of this broader zone. A move into this 260−270 area would represent a deeper but still very much acceptable retracement within a strong uptrend, offering potentially compelling entry or re-entry opportunities for long-term participants.
Overall Outlook:
The current pullback in AVGO should be viewed as a necessary consolidation within a powerful uptrend rather than a sign of weakness. The stock has demonstrated clear impulsive moves followed by corrective retracements throughout its journey higher, as visually reinforced by the white zigzag line.
We will be closely monitoring how AVGO interacts with the 283−288 intermediate support. A successful hold and bounce from this level would suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory. However, if this level is breached, the 260−270 zone becomes the critical area where fresh buying interest is likely to emerge, presenting a lower-risk entry point for those looking to capitalize on AVGO's impressive run.
In summary, AVGO remains firmly in a bullish posture, and these identified support levels offer tactical insights for managing positions or initiating new ones.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
MRVL Massive 15-Years Symmetrical Breakout Targets AheadMarvell Technology (MRVL) has just completed a monumental breakout from a 15-years symmetrical triangle, a rare and powerful long-term accumulation structure. This type of macro consolidation typically precedes a major directional expansion, and in this case, the breakout confirmed bullish continuation.
Currently, MRVL is forming a rising channel structure, with price bouncing cleanly from the lower boundary confirming demand and the continuation phase of the macro move.
The 1:1 projection from the symmetrical triangle gives us a clear target trajectory, with the final leg potentially extending to $229, aligning perfectly with the upper boundary of the rising channel.
In the short to mid-term, the ideal buyback opportunity rests near $67.50, should the market retest previous breakout support or the lower boundary of the channel once more. This zone offers asymmetric risk-to-reward potential for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
Key Targets
📈 $67.50 – Buyback Opportunity Zone
📈 $229 – Rising Channel Top / 1:1 Expansion Target
A breakout this large is no coincidence, it’s backed by years of price compression and institutional positioning. Now is the time to watch closely.
📩 Drop your view in the comments and share your stock requests for quick analysis.
Only stock assets will be accepted under this post.
Smoothie in One Hand, Chart in the Other: Your Vacation ManualSome traders bring a beach read. Others bring their TradingView charts.
It’s the heat of the summer and we figured, why not take it easy with a breeze of lightweight lines to pair with your mezcal espresso martini? Let’s talk about how to relax while still watching the markets.
🏄♂️ Market Never Sleeps… But You Should
Vacations are supposed to be about unplugging, but for traders, that’s just code for “I’ll switch to the app instead.”
And we don’t blame you. With all that’s going on — US-EU tariff deal, stocks at record highs, and Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD outperforming Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in a monster July run — it’s only natural for market participants to be hooked at this time.
But watch for those signs of getting overly attached. Studies show performance suffers when you're overcooked — like your last scalp trade on Powell Day. So yes, that mojito matters. Just don’t place a leveraged position on a pool float.
📅 Timing the Market… and Your Booking
Let’s talk timing. The pros know not to schedule getaways during Nonfarm Payrolls week or FOMC decision day. (Unless your idea of relaxing is explaining yield curves to your kids on a ferry across lake Como.)
Instead, try planning your time off during historically low-volatility periods. Summer often sees volume dry up like your skin without sunscreen. Think August’s fairly dry weeks — when even the algorithms seem to be on holiday. As always, consult with the Economic Calendar to know when these are.
Bonus tip: if you’re flying and you wanna stay wired in, go for premarket or after-hours shifts. Nothing says “seasoned trader” like placing an order while the flight attendant gathers everyone’s attention for the safety demo.
🧴 SPF 50 and the S&P 500: Know Your Risk Exposure
In these scorchers outside, you wouldn’t step out without sunscreen, right? But would you let your positions roast unsupervised?
Use stop losses like you use sunblock: generously and repeatedly. Even better — scale back. Summer’s thin liquidity (and other summer trading traps ) can turn minor market moves into full-on tidal waves. No one wants to explain to their friends why they lost 40% of their portfolio during a snorkeling trip.
Adequate position sizing is your beach umbrella. It doesn’t stop the storm, but it’ll stop the burn.
🧭 Wi-Fi, but Make It Secure
Public Wi-Fi is great for scrolling memes, not executing trades. One accidental login from a beachside café in Mykonos and boom — your brokerage account may become a group project.
Trading from your vacation spot shouldn’t be a flex (no matter how much you want to look cool to the bunch of people around you). Focus on your game, trade in silence, and bask in sunlight and success.
☀️ Pack Light, Trade Lighter
The golden rule? If you’re not at your desk, don’t trade like you are.
Scale back positions, minimize leverage, and don’t try to outperform the market while someone’s kid is throwing a beach ball at your head. This is a maintenance phase, not a moonshot month.
Think: protect capital, avoid drawdowns, maybe sneak in a swing trade between sunscreen applications.
📲 Must-Have Apps for Sand-and-Screen Trading
You’re not bringing a full setup, but your phone can still do the heavy lifting. Load it with TradingView (obviously), your broker, ideally paired with TradingView, and a solid news feed . Bonus points for noise-canceling headphones that can drown out both market panic and crying toddlers.
Set up push notifications smartly — only the alerts you actually need. You don’t want your wrist buzzing every time Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA moves 0.1%.
Question for the road : What’s your best summer trade… and was it worth checking your phone at dinner to place it?
Deep Dive Into Relative Strength Index (RSI)The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes.
Introduction
In the world of trading, timing is everything — and few indicators have stood the test of time like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Introduced by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that helps traders evaluate the strength and speed of price movements. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, or crypto, understanding how RSI is calculated and how to interpret its signals can give you a critical edge.
In this article, we’ll break down exactly how the RSI works, explore its formula, and dive into practical ways you can incorporate it into your trading strategies. From spotting potential reversals to identifying overbought and oversold conditions, the RSI remains a cornerstone of technical analysis — but only if you know how to use it properly.
Let’s explore the mechanics and the mindset behind this powerful indicator.
What Is RSI and How Is It Calculated?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements over a defined period. It outputs a value between 0 and 100, which helps traders determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
The default RSI setting uses a 14-period lookback window and is calculated with the following steps:
🔷Calculate the average gain and loss over the last 14 periods:
Average Gain = Sum of all gains over the past 14 periods / 14
Average Loss = Sum of all losses over the past 14 periods / 14
🔷Compute the Relative Strength (RS):
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
🔷Apply the RSI formula:
RSI=100−(100/(1+RS))
The result is a single number between 0 and 100 that indicates the asset's momentum.
How to Use RSI in Trading Strategies
⚡️Overbought and Oversold Conditions Strategy
RSI > 70 typically signals that an asset may be overbought and due for a pullback.
RSI < 30 suggests the asset might be oversold, potentially primed for a bounce.
However, these levels aren’t absolute sell or buy signals. In strong trends, RSI can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods.
📈Long Trading Strategy Example:
1. Identify the major trend, to find the long trades it shall be uptrend. On the screen below you can see 1D time frame for BITMART:BTCUSDT.P .
2. Move to lower time frame (in our case 4h) and find the moment when RSI falls below 30. This is our oversold condition and we are going to look for long trade.
3. Find the local support zone and open long trade.
4. Take profit when price reaches resistance level next to the previous swing high
5. Don’t forget to put initial stop loss when enter position. The best stop loss which will give you 3:1 risk to reward ratio.
📉Short Trading Strategy Example
1. Identify the major trend, to find the short trades it shall be downtrend. On the screen below you can see 1D time frame for BITMART:ETHUSDT.P .
2. Move to lower time frame (in our case 4h) and find the moment when RSI grows above 70. This is our overbought condition and we are going to look for short trade.
3. Find the local resistance zone and open short trade.
4. Take profit when price reaches support level next to the previous swing low
5. Don’t forget to put initial stop loss when enter position. The best stop loss which will give you 3:1 risk to reward ratio.
⚡️RSI Breakout Strategy
RSI is breaking through 60 indicating bullish momentum shift if the long-term trend is bullish can be the potential long signal
RSI is breaking down 40 indicating bearish momentum shift if the long-term trend is bearish can be the potential short signal
This strategy works great only on the trending market, don’t use it on the range bounded market to avoid whiplashes.
📈Long trading strategy example:
1. Make sure that long-term trend is bullish. Use 200 period EMA as its approximation. If price remains above it we can look for potential long trade setup.
2. If RSI crossed above the level 60 open long trade.
3. Put the initial stop-loss under the signal candle’s low.
4. Take profit when price reached 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
📉Short trading strategy example
1. Make sure that long-term trend is bearish. Use 200 period EMA as it’s approximation. If price remains below it we can look for potential short trade setup.
2. If RSI crossed below the level 40 open short trade.
3. Put the initial stop-loss above the signal candle’s high.
4. Take profit when price reached 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. In our case we received very fast and profitable trade
⚡️RSI Divergence Strategy
RSI can be used also as a trend reversal indicator if we are looking for divergences. This is very reliable sign of current trend weakness and great opportunity open trade against the trend. Usually it’s not recommended, but in case if divergence can be applicable.
Bullish divergence is the situation when price created the lower low, while RSI made the lower low. Usually, it indicates that current downtrend is weakening and we can look for long trades
Bearish divergence is the situation when price created the higher high, while RSI made the lower high. Usually, it indicates that current uptrend is weakening and we can look for short trades
😎Important hint: it’s rarely covered in textbooks about technical analysis, but in our opinion it’s better to used divergences when RSI was able to cross level 50 between two lows/highs.
📈Long trading strategy example
1. Find at the chart situation, when the price made the lower low
2. At the same time RSI shall set the higher low
3. RSI shall break level 50 between these lows indicating shift to the bullish momentum
4. If price failed to set the clean breakdown open long trade on the candle which set the lower low. Put stop loss under it’s low
5. Take profit at 3:1 RR. When you master this concept, you will be able to have much more RR trades, even 10:1. This is possible because when trend finish you have the highest potential upside
📉Short trading strategy example
1. Find at the chart situation, when the price made the higher high
2. At the same time RSI shall set the lower high
3. RSI shall break level 50 between these highs indicating shift to the bearish momentum
4. If price failed to set the clean breakout open short trade on the candle which set the higher high. Put stop loss above it’s high
5. Take profit at 3:1 RR. When you master this concept, you will be able to have much more RR trades, even 10:1. This is possible because when trend finish you have the highest potential upside
Conclusion
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains one of the most powerful and flexible tools in a trader’s technical arsenal — but its real value lies in how you use it.
We’ve explored three key RSI strategies:
✅ Overbought/Oversold setups offer simple entry signals in ranging markets, where price tends to revert to the mean.
✅ Breakout strategies unlock RSI’s momentum-tracking potential, helping you ride strong directional moves with confidence.
✅ Divergence detection reveals hidden shifts in market sentiment, giving you an early warning of possible reversals or trend continuations.
Each approach has its strengths — and its risks — but together, they offer a complete framework for using RSI across different market conditions
🔑 Key Takeaways:
RSI is not just a “buy low, sell high” tool — it’s a multi-dimensional indicator that adapts to trends, momentum, and market structure.
The best RSI signals come from confluence: combining RSI with price action, support/resistance, volume, or trend filters like moving averages.
Patience and discipline are essential — RSI signals are only effective when paired with proper risk management and confirmation.
By mastering RSI beyond the basics, you'll be better equipped to make timely, confident, and informed trading decisions — whether you're entering a pullback, chasing a breakout, or spotting the early signs of reversal.
TSLA Long-Term Bold Projection (2025-2035)This is a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) stock on the weekly timeframe, combining Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci extensions, and price structure (base formations) within a broad logarithmic trend channel.
Key Highlights:
🔹 Base Formations:
Base 1 (2010–2013): First consolidation before TSLA’s breakout.
Base 2 (2014–2019): A wide triangle structure leading to explosive growth.
Base 3 (2021–2024): Ongoing range suggesting wave (2) correction.
Base 4 (2026–2032): Projected future range before a possible euphoric blow-off phase.
🔹 Elliott Wave Structure:
Current wave count suggests TSLA is finishing wave (2) of a larger 5-wave structure.
Bullish impulse expected with wave (3), (4), and (5) leading to new ATHs, potentially into the $8,000–$10,000+ range.
A corrective ABC phase may follow, bringing price back toward key support (~$450 zone), aligned with Fibonacci retracements and channel support.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 and 2.618 extensions align with historical breakout points and future resistance zones.
Long-term projection targets include $1,226, $4,400, and potentially $8,000+, with eventual reversion to the mean.
🔹 Log Channel:
Price has respected a long-term ascending channel.
Midline and upper resistance bands guide potential future resistance zones.






















