Trump's Odds Drop to 33%, Easy 3x in 1 Month?Trump was diagnosed with COVID last night. His betting odds have dropped to under 34% which means you could easily triple your money if he wins. Chances are high (99%) that he will survive the infection. And chances are also very high that he will win the election.
Many will say "look at the polls!" but as we know from the 2016 Wikileaks and election results, the polls are manipulated by oversampling democrats, and the mainstream media plays right into this bias:
"I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling" wikileaks.org
"Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win." NYT. November 8th, 2016.
"Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 71.4%. Donald Trump 28.6%." FiveThirtyEight. November 8th, 2016
"Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning" Reuters. November 7th, 2016.
"In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent)" Fox News. November 5th, 2016.
"Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, a less aggressive assumption (sigma=1.1%) leads to a Clinton win probability of 95%." Princeton University. November 6th, 2016
Obviously the mainstream media polls and election forecasting methodologies cannot be trusted, and are being heavily manipulated by the center-right and the left. I would bet that Trump's chances of winning are very high, and that his base is quite fired up for him. According to a recent Gallup poll 94% of republicans support the president and 39% of independents support him as well. According a recent ABC News poll, only 86% of democrats have a favorable view of Biden (independent results not available). From what I've personally seen it seems most democrats are only voting for Biden because he's "not Trump," which doesn't give him much momentum. Had the democrats nominated a far-left candidate like Bernie Sanders, the results would be much harder to predict.
I think the democrats will become radicalized after this election and nominate a far-left candidate, and they will likely win the 2024 election. For now, the radicalized far-right Trump has much more momentum than the middle-of-the-road center-left Biden, and there's a very good risk/reward ratio on this bet. Also there's a chance Trump's betting odds get even lower the closer we get to the election, like it did in 2016, so it might be a good idea to save some money for that. There's obviously no guarantee that Trump will win but the risk to reward here seems very good.
(BTW this is not a political statement, just simple observation. I will be voting for the Libertarian Party candidate. I don't support either authoritarian party.)
Election
S&P 500 Yearly Forecast (Nov 2020 - Nov 2021)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (November 18th 2020 through November 2021)
Low: 3010.3 points
High: 3876.6 - 3900 points
There could be some great buying opportunities ahead of us in the coming year, can't wait to see what 2021 brings us.
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
AJ STRATSo the strategy ive been working on has been very good with aussie pairs.
i want to continue seeing results like this before i go live with it.
US Election -- 3rd party Percentage100% - Biden % - Trump %
Easy 'Math Chart'
I expect this to continue to decline as we get closer to Nov 3
People will choose the lesser of two evils however they see it
Much love
xoxo
snoop
LTC RETRACEltc needed a retracement as a matter of fact all cryptos do. lets wait and see how she reacts to support.
sold out everywhere....well this is consolidating nice along moving avg. perfect pullback to enter at high of day next week. though i feel it is a good swing trade rather then momo but can prob. go either way. election Biden win gonna explode trump win civil unrest = Guns and ammo..... Bought long calls into may and might trade
AAL Still Choppy NASDAQ:AAL has been moving between 11.30 and 14.13 since earlier this Summer. Election time is truly the moment of truth. With a second stimulus bill in the works the main question that remains is when? Higher lows on the CMF shows that initiative for buyers is clearly there, comparatively to other dips it has formed a similar pattern. The earning beat is positive for AAL however furloughs have been hard on the workers and the company is clearly struggling. There is reason to believe that airlines will recover nicely with stimilus as we have seen recovery across the board with House elections more clear. Once stimulus hits there will likely be another big buyback likely followed by a dump. The area I would look to hold AAL until is around 19.38, I have enough reason to believe that area will be liquid for the stock and create a pullback. A strong push above this line (likely a result of an innovation of product or vaccine development) could lead to the line serving as a moderate support until we have more information. AAL is a strong buy above 12.05. These lines were drawn on historical price action, however it is important to note since the initial COVID-19 low and swing high the Fib levels have matched up nicely with these levels
Rotation from growth to value: updateAt the beginning of September I forecasted that we would likely see some rotation from growth to value in the next few months, and I laid out three target prices for the RSP (equal weight) to SPY (cap weight) ratio. This ratio has continued to behave fairly predictably, oscillating within its seven-month range and making fairly perfect touches of the target levels.
Lately we've been making higher lows in this ratio, which suggests that it might be working itself up to an upside breakout. We've obviously achieved my first price target several times and tested the second target twice. the most recent test of Target 2 came this morning after Pfizer's vaccine news.
In my opinion, Biden's victory and the prospect of an effective vaccine both make value rotation increasingly likely. The Democrats have talked of taking anti-trust action against large-cap growth companies, and a vaccine means pandemic growth winners like Amazon may soon see more competition from value companies with more in-person traditional business models.
A vaccine of course won't change consumer behavior right away. It has to be approved, manufactured, and distributed. But I do think we will sometime soon take a run at Target 3.
ES1: Writing Off This Quarter The FED is projecting we need to write off this quarter as well with the surge of covid cases and at the same time, they are not contemplating an easing of Monetary Policy. Plus Biden is less likely to give stimulus to big businesses. Not only that Trump is most likely going to be dormant for the last 2 months of his presidency, so signs of stimulus seem bleak. This means liquidity is going to be dry for the next couple of months --> Bearish.
analysis EUhello traders, here is an entry area prediction to the downside. As you can see that it made divergence to the left. I'm assuming that will making head and shoulders on the 1hr around 61% of the fib and then shoot down to fill in the gap below. Be careful with news and the vaccine. Thanks for reading!
MA TRIANGLEMA completely jumped today.
Its in a triangle but support might be good around 325
lets wait and see :)
One last big S&P 500 meltup likelyYesterday the S&P 500 briefly made a bullish trend line cross before pulling back below the trend line. This is what you might call a "bullish rejection," because it actually got across the trend line before pulling back. Often such rejections portend that a bullish move is coming, but won't happen right away.
Possibly we will see a dip to a support level before making a successful cross with a close above the trend line. I think that's the most likely outcome in the event that Trump refuses to concede and there's unrest or a protracted legal battle. Should Trump concede, I think we could see an immediate bullish trend line cross as the nation breathes a sigh of relief that there won't be rioting.
Typically, the longer you spend at a resistance level, the more likely that the resistance level will be breached. So the fact that we're hovering near the trend line today rather than pulling back from it bodes well technically for getting across the line.
In fundamental terms, I think it likely that there will be one last meltup on news of a new stimulus bill, whenever one materializes. The parties may wait until Senate races are decided, so that they know what their bargaining power is in negotiations. Investors, however, may not wait to start speculating on the stimulus they know is coming. With election uncertainty resolved and Q3 earnings looking pretty good overall, I think the meltup could soon begin in earnest even without any definite stimulus news.
I'd caution that the market is very overvalued here-- less so if you take into account how low interest rates are, but still multiples are at historically high levels and there will likely be a correction at some point in the next couple years, especially due to multiple compression if interest rates begin to return to normal levels. (Large corrections often come in the second year of a president's term, according to election cycle theory.)
COVID19 the Jerk got worse in a SnapPart 1: FULL INTRO
The goal remains the application of 'derivatives of displacement' to describe the spread of COVID-19. The points made will apply to any application over time (not just virus spread).
This charts focus is on COVID19's "snap". Snap is the 4th derivative of displacement:
Rate of spread (how many each day)
Velocity of spread: Change in Rate over time
Acceleration of spread: Change in Rate over time
Jerk of spread: Change in Rate over time
Snap: Change in Jerk over time
Snap is explosive change best described as "Oh Sh-t!"
Examples of snap include :
Waterfall.
Take off.
Flooring it.
Rocket launch.
Peak violent vomiting
Roller coaster with 360 loop.
COVID19 spread as of Nov, 2020. (Black histogram in upper right chart)
Why should I care?
Acceleration, Jerk and Snap can be evaluated together when expressed in standard deviations. 95% of measurements fall between -2 STD and +2 STD away from their mean mean (assuming a normal distribution).
The lower right chart presents the derivatives in terms of STD's. At the time of writing they are all above the midline (i.e. all positive). In terms of "stopping the spread" of the virus consider the difficulty in stopping any of the 'snap examples' above.
A job for superman? Superman was said to be "faster than a speeding bullet". However, after leaving the barrel, a bullets velocity and acceleration are negative. Bullets slow down, while virus spread speeds up. The bullets deceleration lacks jerk or snap unless it hits a wall. Yet, on one point the bullet metaphor *is* useful:
Giving a bullet or a virus a 'head start' has an exponential impact . For a virus the head start may be time for asymptomatic spread. For a bullet its a longer barrel and more time to build velocity.(see note below).
Time Matters and the time is now
American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacement
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[Note on projectile velocities :
A bullet, while moving through its barrel, is being pushed forward by the gas expanding behind it. This gas was created when the trigger was pulled, causing the firing pin to strike the primer, which in turn ignited the solid propellant packed inside the bullet cartridge, making it combust while situated in the chamber. Once it leaves the barrel, the force of the expanding gas ceases to propel the bullet forth. When a bullet is fired from a handgun with a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel, the bullet only has a 2-inch (51 mm) "runway" to be spun before it leaves the barrel. Likewise, it has only a 2-inch (51 mm) space in which to accelerate before it must fly without any additional force behind it. In some instances, the powder may not have even been fully burned in guns with short barrels. So, the muzzle velocity of a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel is less than that of a 4-inch (100 mm) barrel, which is less than that of a 6-inch (150 mm) barrel.
$DG- I love this long, but is now the right time?$DG has generated alot of cash for me and for options contract buyers its a great long exp buy. Obviously Equity buyers included in this. Right now we are sitting at a major resistance , and if we break my first PT would be $225.35. After that we are working through ATMs but thats how stocks work at ATM. you never know. One thing to watch is $SPY . $DG moves along side $SPY and if we break to the downside I will be watching for a divergence from SPY to see If the pullback is real or not. If DG hovers while SPY dumps then when the market bounces it should present a nice buying opportunity. I will be signaling these in our group this week, and hopefully posting some more videos on these tickers in particular. So right now I am hoping for a gap up, over resistance and then a retest to send us on our way. ATM highs can be scary, but if the volume is higher then we could see a nice push! Thanks for listening!
DXY (USD Index) Daily Analysis November 8th, 2020 DXY Short Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4Hour Trend: Bearish
Price action has been steadily falling as the election has been developing. Now that the election is over we could see the speculation and bearish momentum start to die down near a major level of support.
Trade scenario 1: Looking for price action to push into major support 91.750 before we see a correction. Look for lower highs to catch this potential short scenario if they are presented.
Trade scenario 2: Price action goes bullish. From the current level of price action we need to see a lot before we consider long scenarios. Ideally we need to see a break and retest with a confirmed higher low above 92.500. Target toward our 4hour resistance around 93.800.
Risk Growth with conflict in US Election Resultthere is 3 months left from Trump's Presidency and now he opened a case against Biden Fake Votes in Courte
European Governors say congratulations to Joe Biden Because of bad economic impact of new Quarantine's Rules in europe and they don't want new High Risk Scenario for Word Orders , because their economy have no more chance to step away from slippage ...
There is more room for risk here than any other chances of salvation in Financial Markets in next 3 months.
