Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.17800.Colleagues, I thought I'd update the forecast a bit.
The target remains almost the same, but the wave layout has changed slightly.
I believe that at the moment the development of wave “5” of the higher order and wave “3” of the lower wave is underway.
Therefore, I still consider the area of 1.15765 as a support area and the area of 1.17800 as a target area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Elliotwaveanalysis
Elliott Wave Analysis: Balkrishna Industries LimitedHello friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
We're analyzing the chart of Balkrishna Industries Limited from the perspective of Elliott Waves.
Here's what we've observed: we've completed Primary Degree Wave ((3)) in Black at the peak of August 2024. Following that, we've witnessed a complete bearish and sideways movement, culminating in the low of April 7, 2025, which marks the end of Primary Degree Wave ((4)) in Black.
We've now initiated Wave ((5)) in Black, which should unfold as five Intermediate Degree subdivisions (1) to (5) in Blue. Furthermore, within Wave (1), we should see 1,2,3,4,& 5 Minor Degree subdivisions in Red. As we can see, we've marked Red Wave 1 as complete, and Red Wave 2 is almost complete.
According to Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 2 has retraced less than 100% of Wave 1, which is a valid point. Our invalidation level will be the low of Wave ((4)) in Black at 2150.
Since April 7, the price has made an impulsive move upwards, forming a high on May 9, 2025. We've labeled this as Minor Degree Wave 1 (in red). Within Wave 1, we've identified a lower degree, Minute Degree (in black), with subdivisions ((i))-((ii))-((iii))-((iv)) & ((v)).
Following Wave 1, a corrective move has unfolded in a 3-3-5 structure, specifically a flat correction. We've labeled this as Wave 2. If the price doesn't break below the low of Wave ((4)) (2150), and instead forms a higher high, it will increase the likelihood that our wave count is correct. However, if the price makes a lower low, it will introduce a doubtful scenario.
We've observed that Primary Degree Wave ((3)) in Black, which we identified at the top, has led to a corrective fall in Wave ((4)) in Black. Within Wave ((4)), we've labeled an Intermediate Degree (W)(X)(Y) correction (in blue) with subdivisions. This can be classified as a Double Three pattern.
Furthermore, within the (W) correction, we've identified another Minor Degree WXY pattern, and within the (X) wave, another WXY pattern. The (Y) wave has an ABC minor pattern. Additionally, we've noticed a slanting resistance trend line, which has been broken with the arrival of Wave 1.
Given the significant decline in price, market sentiments have likely contributed to the unfolding corrective structure. If the price forms a higher high, it will increase the likelihood that our potential Elliott Wave count is correct.
Elliott Wave analysis is always like solving a puzzle, requiring us to unfold the structure and make educated guesses about the emerging pattern. If the price breaks below the Wave ((4)) low 2150, our wave count will likely change. Until the price remains above this invalidation level, we'll continue to follow this wave count. If the price crosses the Wave 1 high, we'll have full confidence in this wave count.
In this study, we've applied Elliott wave theoretical structures to identify a potential scenario. However, markets can be unpredictable and may surprise us at any time, leading to new scenarios emerging.
The information, chart, and study shared in this post are solely for educational purposes. Our goal is to demonstrate how we plot market movements and make informed forecasting about future trends using Elliott Wave theory. If our predictions prove accurate, we can refine our wave counts accordingly. Conversely, if our predictions are incorrect, we will need to adjust our wave counts.
Please note that this analysis is not investment advice, and you should always consult with a financial expert before making any investment decisions.
I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
OILUSD – Demand Zone Reaction (4H Analysis)Price has been moving in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Recently, it tapped into a strong demand zone (blue box) and is now showing signs of a bullish reaction.
🔎 Key Points:
Price reacted strongly from the demand zone.
A trendline break is visible, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
Stop loss is placed below the demand zone (61.36).
Take profit is set at the next supply zone / resistance around 66.05.
💡 If buyers hold this level, we may see a strong push toward 66.05. But if demand fails, price could revisit lower levels.
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) – Neowave UpdateEthereum continues to move inside a short-term descending channel. Based on the Neowave count, the current structure can be interpreted as wave G of a Diametric pattern.
🔑 Main Scenario:
• If ETH manages to hold above 4315, buyers could regain control.
• In that case, a move toward the channel’s upper boundary around 4410 is likely, completing wave G of the Diametric.
⚠️ Alternative Scenario:
• Failure to sustain above 4315 will keep the bearish tone intact.
• In this case, ETH may retest the lower boundary of the channel, with possible extensions toward 4200–4150.
📌 Conclusion:
Ethereum is at a decision point. A confirmed breakout above 4315 opens room for a rally to 4410, while rejection from this level could extend the corrective phase lower.
XAUUSD – Week 08/09 to 12/09, CPI & PPI in FocusXAUUSD – Week 08/09 to 12/09, CPI & PPI in Focus
Good day Traders,
Gold posted a notable advance last week, recording new highs on a near-daily basis. While this type of price action is not unprecedented, it has introduced an element of caution to the market. Investor sentiment remains firmly skewed towards the long side, reaffirming gold’s position as a key safe-haven asset.
Fundamental Outlook
Attention this week will centre on the release of US CPI and PPI data. These figures will be critical in assessing the financial health of the US economy and could directly shape the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential rate cut in September.
Technical Outlook
Price has already surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension, with the next upside projection aligning near the 2.618 level at 3687.
Prior to reaching this objective, a modest retracement into nearby FVG (Fair Value Gap) zones is possible.
On a longer-term horizon, the 3467 – 3475 region is highlighted as a constructive area for accumulation, supported by the confluence of FVG, Dibo and Volume Profile.
Trading Scenarios
Upside Bias: Long positions remain the preferred approach. The 3467–3475 area offers a technically favourable entry zone for those with a longer-term outlook.
Downside Case: Short exposure should only be considered upon evidence of a reversal structure, with confirmation via a break below 3510, or rejection from the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
Final Thoughts
For the week ahead, gold continues to be best approached from the long side. Nevertheless, traders should closely monitor price reactions at the identified technical levels and adjust accordingly. With key macroeconomic releases imminent, maintaining disciplined risk management remains essential.
XRP: Lacks Momentum Despite Modest GainsRipple’s XRP is trading slightly higher today compared to last Monday, but it still hasn’t found real momentum. For now, it’s expected to continue moving upward toward resistance at $4.09 as part of turquoise wave B, before the correction of wave (2) is finally completed. The following magenta wave (3) should then drive gains above the $4.09 resistance level. If the altcoin manages to break directly above this level, this will suggest that wave alt.(2) has already wrapped up.
Bitcoin – H4 Mid-Term OutlookBitcoin – H4 Mid-Term Outlook
Good day Traders,
Bitcoin remains in a broad sideways range. Although the recent NFP release generated strong trading volume, the market has yet to confirm a dominant direction. For now, price continues to rotate within the 107k – 113k area.
Elliott Wave View
There are signs that Wave 5 has likely completed, while an A–B corrective phase is developing. Within this structure, the market could still deliver one more upward move before clarity emerges.
Trendline & Critical Levels
A descending trendline is capping upside momentum, offering potential early short entries. Still, a decisive break below 107k would be needed to confirm a mid-term bearish structure.
Alternatively, if price retests the trendline and rebounds, a wave C rally could unfold.
It is also worth noting that BTC remains above its rising channel, signalling that sellers have yet to take full control.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
Holding above 107k and breaking through 113k would open the way towards 115k – 118k. Long setups should ideally be backed by stronger volume or a confirming MACD signal.
Bearish Scenario:
A failure to defend 107k could accelerate selling pressure, dragging price back towards 104k – 101k, where key support lies.
Professional Insight
The market currently lacks clear direction in the mid-term. Monitoring price action at 107k and along the descending trendline will be critical for defining the next move. Until then, flexibility and strict risk management remain vital for traders navigating this environment.
EURUSD BEARISHOn the 4H timeframe, EURUSD is currently reacting around a key supply zone.
🔴 Supply Zone (1.1730 – 1.1760):
Price rejected this area previously with strong selling pressure.
Price is now retesting this zone, where sellers are likely to defend again.
🔵 Demand Zone (1.1584):
This is the next major support where buyers previously stepped in.
It remains the logical take profit target for shorts.
Microstrategy: Further DeclineAfter a brief consolidation, MSTR continued its decline since our last update, further developing turquoise wave 2, where we still see price positioned. We continue to anticipate the low of this wave above the support at $153.49. In the meantime, we have revised the magenta substructure of wave 2 to a - - formation, with the final (wave- ) leg currently unfolding. Once turquoise wave 2 completes, we expect a strong rally above resistance at $674.18, which should significantly advance the broader upward impulse. However, under our new alternative scenario, a different wave count could prevail: price may currently be forming magenta wave alt. to the upside, developing a blue three-part substructure in the process. In this 25% likely scenario, the next move would be for blue wave alt. (b) to finish within the nearby blue alternative Target Zone between $306.60 and $252.67, before wave alt. (c) pushes up toward the top of magenta wave alt. near $674.18. Within this alternative, the blue zone could offer long entry opportunities, though heightened caution is warranted: since this remains only an alternative scenario, risk is elevated, and we consider strict risk management—such as setting a stop 1% below the lower edge of the zone—absolutely essential.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3540.Colleagues, the forecast for an upward impulse has been confirmed and now I think that wave “3” is complete and I expect a correction in wave ‘4’ in the area of 3445 and then a continuation of the upward movement in the final wave “5”, which may meet resistance at the important level of 3540.
The most interesting thing is that if this is what happens - it would mean that there is a pretty strong correction ahead, after the execution of the scenario, and then a continuation of the upward movement, but we will talk about these plans later.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD – Pullback, has the downtrend really begun?XAUUSD – Pullback, has the downtrend really begun?
Hello traders,
As you can see, gold is currently in a corrective move, already dropping around 40 dollars, showing clear selling pressure. Traders are accepting shorts at these levels. However, to truly confirm a downtrend, we need to see how price reacts around 3530 – this will be the key level to determine whether the pullback is genuine.
On the higher timeframe, gold has rallied nearly 250 dollars (2500 pips) in just two weeks, which highlights the strong prior buying momentum. That said, today’s and tomorrow’s NFP data could force gold to give back liquidity and redistribute the market. Last month’s NFP was weak, and if this repeats, gold could still push higher – but that’s just a forecast and needs to be observed further.
Trading strategy:
Mid to long-term bias: look for selling opportunities around the 354x zone.
Short-term buys may be considered at the FVG fill zones around 3510 – 3460 – 3430, where major liquidity gaps remain from the earlier surge in buying.
For now, my outlook is to hold a medium-term short bias. Feel free to share your views in the comments so we can discuss further.
Trading Plan for Gold USD Using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci This trading plan combines Elliott Wave analysis with Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, focusing on key psychological points to guide entry, exit, and risk management decisions for the Gold/USD 1-hour chart.
Fibonacci Levels & Psychological Zones:
Wave 3 is approaching a Fibonacci extension zone near 3,558 - 3,616 (from 3.618 to 4.618 levels). This acts as a key resistance and potential Wave 3 target.
The retracement for Wave 4 correction is expected to land within the important Fibonacci retracement zones:
- 38.2% (~3,472)
- 50% (~3,449)
- 61.8% (~3,426)
These Fibonacci levels serve as psychological support zones where Wave 4 could end and Wave 5 might begin.
EUR/USD | Triangle Formation |EUR/USD – Symmetrical Triangle Formation | Elliott Wave Count (ABCDE)
Price action is currently developing within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with waves a–b–c–d–e in play.
Demand Zone (Buyers Zone): Price recently tapped into demand, showing bullish reaction.
Supply Zone 2 (1.1687): Acts as a key resistance level for short-term targets.
Wave Structure: The market is respecting Elliott Wave triangle formation, suggesting a possible bullish breakout after wave e completes.
Plan: Expect consolidation within the triangle before a potential push toward 1.1687. Break and close above may confirm continuation; failure could lead to retest of lower support levels.
📊 This setup aligns with both Elliott Wave theory and supply-demand dynamics, offering clear short-term trading opportunities.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”.
Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512.
The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BITCOIN'S FALL HAS BEGUN ! DON'T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE BLOODBATH JPowel's rate cut hints that something bad is about to happen. All Fed Rate cuts have been marked by devastating market crash and this time will be no different. Don't lose your hard-earned money to the upcoming carsh !! You have been warned.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
ETHEREUM WILL MAKE NEW ALL TIME HIGHS AND THEN !!! DOOMSDAY !!ETH looks primed for new ATH now that late longs have been wiped off. There is considerable fear in the market but not fear enough ! ETH is about to explode with rest of the ALTS ! make you money while you can and then run for the hills my dudes. This will be epic !
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
XAUUSD – Sell Strategy in PlayXAUUSD – Sell Strategy in Play
Hello traders,
Gold reacted exactly as anticipated at the 3508–3510 zone. This correction suggests a bearish opportunity is forming. For confirmation, however, we need to see an M15 candle close below 3466. That would invalidate the previous bullish leg and significantly strengthen the short case.
Structurally, price remains within the broader rising channel, so an early sell should ideally wait until liquidity in the small FVG above has been cleared.
Technical signals are aligning with this view:
MACD has shown steady downside momentum over the last four H1 candles.
Bearish divergence is also emerging across several indicators.
Sell zone to monitor: 3488–3491
Invalidation: a break above the nearest resistance
At these levels, market appetite for fresh longs is fading – chasing buys here is risky. No trend rises endlessly; secondary corrections are always required before higher levels can be reached.
This is my current outlook for gold. Use it as reference, and feel free to share your views in the comments.
Bitcoin Update – The Next StepsBitcoin Update – The Next Steps
Hello traders,
BTC is still moving in line with the outlook I shared previously. Price is now approaching the short zone according to technical structure. For those who prefer not to enter immediately, it may be better to wait for a reaction on the M15–M30 timeframes. The downside is that entries may not be as perfect, but the win rate could improve thanks to additional confirmation.
At the moment, BTC’s price action remains relatively slow. It’s possible that price will consolidate around the entry area for a while, as there is still significant liquidity from the previous long move and market sentiment continues to lean towards upside expectations.
Patience is key here. I’ll update again if there are structural changes. In the meantime, use this scenario as reference and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments so we can discuss further.
Gold Update – With US Banks Closed, Beware of a Possible TrapGold Update – With US Banks Closed, Beware of a Possible Trap
Hello traders,
With US banks closed today, market liquidity linked to the dollar may be thinner than usual, creating less predictable moves for gold. The rally during the Asian session has tempted many traders to look for a “sell the top” opportunity with hopes of sizeable profits.
In my view, the market could set up a trap for short-sellers, meaning price may either push higher during the US session or remain sideways at current levels before revealing clearer direction.
At this stage, it may be better to wait for a cleaner wave structure before committing. The priority should still be trading in line with the broader uptrend.
Buy entry zone: around 3340–3345, with a stop-loss of roughly 10 dollars.
For short positions: patience is key – wait for clear channel confirmation on the M15–H1 timeframes before considering entries.
That’s my current view on gold for today’s US session. Use it as reference and manage risk carefully.