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Elliotwaveanalysis

ETH: Upward!Ethereum has managed to rise towards the $3,100 level in recent hours. We still assign a 40% probability that, as part of blue wave alt.(b), ETH will move above resistance at $3,656 before selling off into our green Target Zone between $2,228 and $1,789. In our primary scenario, we also expect ETH to reach this zone—potentially without first exceeding the $3,656 level. In either case, once ETH enters the Target Zone, we anticipate a corrective rally, which should top out within the red Target Zone ($5,805 – $7,326) at the high of magenta wave (B).
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by HKCM_Global
Hellena | GBP/USD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 1.34683.Colleagues, the upward movement is actively developing, and I see a medium-term upward impulse (12345) developing in the higher wave “1” (red). At this stage, I see: 1) the possibility of a correction in wave “4” in the area of 1.32440, then reaching the resistance area of 1.34683. 2) the extension of wave “3” directly to the area of 1.34683. Such scenarios often occur in impulses. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
1
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4298.I suggest to consider the lower timeframe (1H), which has some peculiarities. I see here an upward impulse in the red wave “3”, which is not over yet. I believe that we should expect the price in the resistance area of 4298.33. A small correction in the form of continuation of wave "4" to the area of 4174.78 is also possible. But in general, I am set for long positions. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
7
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to the area of 6956.Hello, colleagues! I previously published a forecast for an upward movement, and I believe it is time to update the plan slightly. The direction of movement remains the same, but wave “1” has lengthened, which means that the correction in wave “2” may occur slightly higher than previously. I expect a corrective movement to the support area of 6764, followed by a continuation of the upward movement and an update of the peak level of wave “3” of the higher order 6929 and reaching the area of 6956 at a minimum. An extension of wave “1” is also possible, but then it will be necessary to slightly revise the wave markings again. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
XRP: Likely to Move Lower Ripple’s XRP is expected to retrace further into the green Target Zone ranging from $1.03 to $0.38 as part of a blue downward impulse, which would complete the higher-level turquoise wave B. Afterward, wave C should drive price sharply higher, ultimately setting a new high for the larger wave (Y) above the resistance at $4.09. However, if bulls manage to push the altcoin above the $3.19 resistance and the $4.09 level in the near term—a scenario we estimate has a 30% probability—it would suggest that the turquoise alt.B wave has already been completed, and our Target Zone would no longer be reached.
KRAKEN:XRPUSDShort
by HKCM_Global
BTC.D 4H – Market Structure OutlookHi fellow traders, On the 4H BTC Dominance chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a directional scenario for the broader crypto market. After completing the recent downward leg, I expect dominance to move higher in three waves, forming a corrective structure before the larger continuation to the downside can resume. This is not a trade setup, but a structural roadmap to understand how capital may rotate across the crypto market. As long as BTC.D remains below the invalidation level at 61.32%, my expectation is that dominance will eventually turn lower with TP1, TP2, and TP3 as the downside objectives - signalling increasing strength for ALTcoins. If dominance breaks above the invalidation level, this scenario is no longer valid. Good luck and trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by OGwavetrader
2
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to MAX of wave "3" of 6928.Colleagues, we continue the previous scenario of upward movement in the impulse “12345”. I expect a small correction in the middle order wave “2” approximately to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (6675). Then I expect a continuation of the upward movement to the maximum of the wave "3" of the higher order 6928.4. It is possible that the first wave may be stretched, which may mean a correction-free movement to the target. Fundamental Context. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish ahead of this week’s US data releases. Investors continue to price in a softer Fed policy path for 2026, which supports the equity market after the recent correction. US Treasury yields remain under pressure, and the latest macro indicators — especially labor market cooling and weaker business activity components — reinforce expectations of an economic slowdown. This backdrop typically favors equity upside as markets look ahead to potential policy easing. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
4
EURUSD Elliott Wave OutlookThe daily EURUSD structure continues to support a Wave 4 contracting triangle interpretation. Wave d appears complete at the recent swing high, and the pair is now expected to work lower in wave e toward the lower boundary of the triangle and the 0.382–0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement cluster of the prior advance. As long as price holds above the triangle floor and the base channel, the higher timeframe bias remains bullish and the Wave 4 label stays valid. Once wave e completes within this support zone, the next anticipated move is a Wave 5 thrust higher, with a measured triangle target near 1.20697. Key points: Wave 4 daily triangle in progress Wave d high in place, wave e developing lower Wave e downside zone: 0.382 / 0.5 / 0.618 Fibs Invalidation: break below triangle and base channel support Wave 5 upside objective: ~1.20697 triangle thrust level
by EWaveInsights
ETHUSDT – Big Reversal Zone TriggeredHi fellow traders, On the 1D ETHUSDT chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a potential long setup. Price is reacting strongly after completing a deeper correction, and the current structure suggests continuation to the upside within the larger impulsive sequence. I am entering at the current price, with a Stop Loss at 2400. My Take Profit is positioned at 5267.34, targeting the next objective within this bullish structure. If price drops below the stop level, this trade is no longer valid. Structure first. Noise second. Good luck and trade safe!
Long
by OGwavetrader
BTC Wave 4 Bounce Looks Like a Trap! Is it?BTC is still moving inside a clear corrective channel, with the current bounce likely forming wave 4 before one final drop toward the 1.618 extension near 79,650 . The highlighted red zone shows a potential trap area where price may lure traders into thinking a reversal has started. Until BTC breaks above the channel convincingly, the broader structure still favors a wave 5 decline. The wave count from 1–2–3 supports this final leg down before any major recovery. Stay Tuned! @Money_Dictators
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Money_Dictators
1
BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottomWe’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding. Drivers Elliott Wave structure The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves. Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C. If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower. Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction. Cyclical framework Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances. Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October). This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term. Key zones to watch If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.” A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends. Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive. Trade idea My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive. If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
3
Price Under Pressure and Fails to Break $4,245Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure as it has repeatedly failed to break through the $4,245-$4,250 barrier. This failure, followed by a decline, supports the bearish view. ✅ Bearish Scenario - ⚡Initial Critical Point: Diverse technical oscillators indicate that further declines are likely to find decent support near the weekly low, which is the $4,164-$4,163 area. - ⚡Downside Target: Continued selling below this level could drag Gold towards the $4,100 round figure. - ⚡Strong Support Base: The next decline will test the confluence support at $4,085. Note: $4,085 is composed of the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trendline. This level should act as a strong short-term base. ✅ Bullish Scenario - ⚡Strong Hurdle: The $4,245 – $4,250 zone will continue to act as an immediate strong barrier. - ⚡Next Target: Above $4,250, the price could head towards the $4,277 – $4,278 region. - ⚡Strong Upside Trigger: Sustained strength beyond the $4,300 round figure will be seen as a key trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional short-term gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NouzTrader
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 1.17561.Colleagues, I assume that wave “C” ended at 1.14668 and at the moment we see an upward movement in the mid-order impulse “12345”. I think that the wave “1” of lower order will either extend to the area of 1.17561, or we will see a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 1.15967, and then the movement in the wave “3” to the area of 1.17561. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
2
MSTR - Wave 4? - Next stop 197-202 then reload for 220-235!THESIS The recent price action confirms a bullish Elliott Wave impulse move from the $155.61 low. The market has validated an Extended Wave 3 by successfully holding the maximum 61.8% retracement level during the deep Wave 4 pullback (low of $177.82). We are now in the final thrust of Minor Wave 5, we should then see a 3 wave pullback which sets up the full corrective rally to our higher-degree target of $220-$235! Analysis & Targets (Aligned to the Chart) 1. 🎯 Wave (A) Completion: The Final Minor Impulse The current action is the final push of Minor Wave 5 (the fifth wave of the initial impulse from the $177.82 low). • Entry Signal: The bounce from the $177.82 low confirmed the Wave 4 bottom. • Target Zone (A): The technical projection for Wave 5 (using W5 = W1 or 0.618 \times W1-3) places the peak between $196 - $202 • Action: This is the initial profit-taking zone. Look to sell calls here, as this completes the first major structural move. 2. 🌊 Wave (B) Correction: The High-Grade Reload Once the Wave (A) target is hit, a larger corrective pullback (Wave (2) in the larger context) is mandatory before the final surge. Since the preceding Wave 4 was sharp/deep, this Wave (B) correction is likely to be shallow/sideways (a Flat or Triangle) to adhere to the Principle of Alternation. • Target Zone (B): We project a 38.2-50-61.8% retracement of the entire impulse. This places the reloading zone between $182 - $172 (The green box on the chart). • Action: This is the Optimal Reloading Zone for long positions before the final rally. 3. 🚀 Wave (C) Final Target: The Greater Rally Peak The final Wave (C) completes the overarching corrective rally. This leg is targeting a significant Fibonacci retracement of the prior, large bear wave. • Target Zone (C): The $220 - $235 box is perfectly aligned with the high-probability 38.2% of the massive Wave 3 down that preceded this entire rally. • Action: This is the final take-profit target for the entire trade structure. Key Levels to Watch • Buy Target (Sell Limit): $197 (Exit Minor W5). • Reload Zone: $182- $172 - (Buy the Wave B dip). • Invalidation Price: $170 (A close below this invalidates the entire impulse). Good luck with the final wave! Remember to manage risk and set a stop loss! I am a guy on the internet and not a financial advisor! #ElliottWave #MSTR #Bitcoin #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by iJEBUS
1
Netflix: Long-Term Buy Zone in Focus Netflix shares have recently turned lower, moving towards our previously identified long-term entry zone between $96.27 and $75.19. Within this range, we expect the low of the turquoise wave 4 to form, setting the stage for the ongoing upward impulse in wave 5 to push past resistance at $134.11. In a new alternative scenario, there is a 30% probability that the beige wave alt.IV could establish a lower low below $81.27, though it would still remain within the long-term entry zone
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by HKCM_Global
USDJPY Breakdown Begins:Elliott Wave Points to Deeper CorrectionThe USDJPY 4H chart shows a completed five-wave impulsive structure, ending at the recent high marked as wave (5). After finishing this full wave cycle, the price has started to break down from the rising wedge pattern, which is a common sign of a trend reversal. The corrective structure from the top suggests the beginning of a larger A-B-C decline, targeting lower levels in the coming sessions. As long as price stays below the invalidation level near 157.68, the bearish outlook remains valid. This setup indicates that USDJPY has likely completed its bullish phase and is now preparing for a deeper corrective move downward. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Short
by Money_Dictators
BTC: The 15-Year Prophecy (Hosoda Time & The Diagonal)There is a ghost in the machine. For the last few months, amidst the noise of breakouts and new highs, a specific signal has been flashing a warning that defies the rules of a standard Bull Market. It is a "glitch" in the data—a silence where there should be noise. Most are ignoring it. Some are confused by it. Today, we are going to try solving it. Below is the full evolution of the Bitcoin setup, from the Daily traps to the Macro truth, revealing why the "Silence" is actually the loudest signal we have ever seen. Part 1: The Micro Trap (1D Chart) Zooming into the daily timeframe, the structure of the decline is textbook. We are currently navigating Wave (4), but the context provided by the previous move is critical. The "Extended" Wave 3: The drop we just witnessed wasn't a standard correction; it was an impulsive sell-off where Wave 3 was extended. when the third wave extends, it confirming strong momentum in the direction of the trend. The bears are in control. Current Status (Wave 4): We seem to be in the middle of a Wave (4) relief rally, potentially unfolding as an ABC correction. Sub-waves 'a' and 'b' appear complete, with 'b' potentially establishing a local higher low. What's Next: We are likely waiting for Wave 'c' to expand upwards to potentially complete the structure. The Potential Resistance ($99k): If this structure holds, Wave 'c' might push towards the resistance confluence around $99,323. This area could serve as a ceiling for this corrective phase. The Downside Risk ($79k): Traders should remain cautious. If Wave (4) finds resistance near $99k, the Elliott Wave guidelines suggest a Wave (5) decline could follow. If that scenario plays out, the market might target the major support zone near $79,000. Part 2: The Time Anomaly (1W Chart) While the daily chart showed us the immediate price action, the Weekly chart reveals the true scale of the move. As discussed in previous updates, we are navigating a large-scale Irregular Flat Correction, and we are currently at the tail end of Wave (1) of the 5-wave impulse that makes up the larger C-Wave. So, the entire impulsive structure we just analyzed on the Daily chart? That was just the first leg of this Weekly move. ☁️ The Ichimoku Signal: Testing "Senkou Span B" Price action has now entered the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), a critical zone of turbulence. The Level: you can see candles trading inside the cloud. We have already tested the bottom support, specifically the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B). The Forecast: Hitting this level signals that Wave (1) is either ending or has already ended. However, the market rarely makes it easy. I am expecting a potential "False Breakout" below the Cloud to trigger panic, followed by a sharp reclamation. That fake-out would likely mark the bottom of Wave (1) and start of Wave (2). ⏳ The Time Anomaly: Why so fast? There is a strange disconnect in the "Time" dimension of this cycle compared to history (see picture). 2021 Cycle: In the previous bull run, the correction for Wave 1 typically took 70 days to cool the RSI down to 37. Current Cycle: We have smashed down to an RSI of 35.8 in just 42 days. The Question: Why is the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before? This "Time Compression" indicates the cycle is moving faster and more violently than we are used to. The "BBWP Mystery" Finally, look at the BBWP (Volatility) in the below picture. This presents a genuine anomaly. Throughout this cycle, we have seen contractions many times, yet the spectrum never reached the extreme 90% expansion levels. Now, at the very end of the cycle, we are seeing another massive BBWP Contractions. Why is this happening? Is it just noise, or is this contraction actually telling us the truth? Part 4: The Truth (6-Month Macro Chart) Why is the market moving so fast? And what is the "BBWP Signal" we mentioned Before? Look at the 6-Month Logarithmic Chart below. The Big Picture: Elliott Wave Supercycle on 6M Log Scale On the logarithmic chart, Bitcoin appears to be wrapping up a massive impulse wave that started from its early days: Wave (I): Peaked around 2013 (~$1,200 high). Wave (II): Bottomed in 2015 (~$200 low). Wave (III): Explosive rally to the 2021 all-time high (~$69,000). Wave (IV): The 2022 bear market low (~$15,500). Wave (V): Ongoing since late 2022, but here's the twist—it's unfolding as an ending diagonal (wedge pattern with overlapping subwaves: 1-2-3-4-5). 2.Applying Hosoda Time Theory (Ichimoku Time Theory indicate potential future market turning point). The vertical lines in the chart are not Fibonacci; they are Hosoda Numbers (9, 13, 17, 21...), 9: Marked the 2023 Bull Run start. 13: Exactly Marked the Jan 2025 Top as end of wave 3, which matches the irregular flat analysis on Weekly chart which states that Cycle top was on Jan 2025. 17 (±1): Matches our projection for the next major pivot—the end of wave IV and the start of the final Wave V run on Jul-2026 or Jan-2027. The "Mystery": The BBWP Anomaly BBWP is contracting sharply now on weekly chart—at what feels like the end of the cycle, not the start. This flips the script on historical behavior. Why? I tie it back to the higher-degree Elliott count: The ending diagonal's converging nature naturally squeezes volatility, compressing Bollinger Bands as momentum fades. Instead of signaling a fresh bull, this late-cycle contraction could be foreshadowing a reversal—think trend exhaustion rather than accumulation. A Possible Explanation: If the macro structure is indeed an Ending Diagonal, then this volatility crunch (BBWP contractions) and the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before makes perfect sense. We would be squeezing into the apex of a 15-year wedge. The market might be running out of "oxygen". The Verdict: With the 6-Month structure potentially squeezing into a corrective Wave IV, the weight of evidence suggests that the path of least resistance is down. Until the market touches the lower boundary of this diagonal (or invalidates the structure), the only logical macro view is bearish.
Short
by TradingProfile001
2