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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6777.Price made a sharp and strong move to the 6503 level, making wave “4” quite large, but this move did not break the structure. I think that now the price is in the big wave "5" and middle wave "2". I think that there will be an upward movement with the purpose to renew the maximum of the wave "3" of higher order. Therefore, I expect the price in the resistance area of 6777. Fundamental context After the sharp drop, the market quickly recovered — investors are once again turning to risk assets amid growing expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts. Inflation data came out under control, and corporate earnings have been stronger than expected, boosting confidence in the U.S. economy. With the dollar losing momentum and bond yields easing, the S&P 500 now has room to extend its move upward toward the resistance area near 6777. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
13
USDCHF Forming An Elliott Wave Ending DiagonalUSDCHF has made a nice and interesting recovery since September, but so far only in three waves, with a recent reversal down from around the 0.8070 area, so recovery might have been just another corrective rally within an incomplete downtrend. As we know, if we don’t see five waves up from the lows, then the bottom is likely not in place yet. In fact, if current prices break the channel support and move through 0.7940, we should be aware of a possible retest of the 2025 lows, which could be the final leg within a higher-degree ending diagonal. Also keep in mind that USDCHF could still move lower even in a risk-off mode, as the Swiss franc tends to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. However, if we see a sudden and very strong franc in the weeks ahead, the Swiss National Bank could step in and take action to prevent it from rising too far, as they already expressed some concern about that in recent statements.
by ew-forecast
DAX/GER40, technical analysis 1DHello traders, We bring you another important technical analysis on the DAX index. We can see that according to Elliott Wave theory we have completed corrective ABC structure, also taken liquidity and started the bullish 12345 structure in smaller timeframe as u can see on the chart. So the next outlook is that the value of the DAX index will increase. But be careful! It is necessary to respect the invalidation level in this case. We also have to take into account the war in Ukraine, all of President Trump's statements, interest rates, and other stimuli that can change the market instantly! WavePulse
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by WavePulse
Bitcoin - BTCUSDT – Daily NeoWave AnalysisStructure: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE) Current Price: $108,985 (+1.3%) 🧠 Wave Structure Overview Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a Contracting Triangle pattern under NeoWave principles (Glen Neely). This triangle appears to be part of a wave (4) correction within a larger impulsive cycle, consisting of subwaves A–B–C–D–E with well-balanced price and time proportions. 🔹 Wave Details Wave A: Decline from 126K → 104K Type: Impulsive start, setting the corrective tone. Wave B: Sharp recovery to 123K (≈78.6% retrace of A) Type: Zigzag – strong bullish response typical for triangles. Wave C: Pullback to 106K, forming a 3-wave Flat correction. Wave D: Rally to 118–119K, reaching 70% of wave B — perfectly proportional for a contracting structure. Wave E: Final leg down toward 106K–107K, with diminishing momentum and volume — a textbook NeoWave E-wave behavior signaling triangle completion. 🔍 Technical Observations Strong bullish divergence between price and RSI/OBV at the E-wave low. Decreasing volume during wave E → confirms a terminal corrective phase. Price remains above the long-term rising trendline and key demand zone near 106K. 🟢 Primary Scenario (≈70% Probability) Triangle completed at E-wave (106K) → beginning of wave (5) to the upside. Targets: 1️⃣ 115K–118K – short-term breakout zone 2️⃣ 123K–126K – retest of triangle resistance 3️⃣ 138K–145K – extended target if wave (5) unfolds impulsively 🔴 Alternative Scenario (≈30% Probability) If BTC breaks below 106K, wave E may extend deeper toward 102K–100K, forming a Running Triangle E before a strong bullish reversal. ⚙️ Summary ✅ Current pattern: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE) ✅ Position: End of wave E of (4) 📈 Expectation: Start of wave (5) impulsive advance ⚠️ Invalidation: Daily close below 102K Conclusion: BTC is likely completing a major corrective phase. Holding above 106K keeps the bullish breakout scenario valid — watch for a decisive move above 111K–112K to confirm the next impulsive leg.
by CryptoPilot
FinVolution Group (FINV) - A Quiet Giant on the Edge of Breakout⚡ FinVolution Group (FINV) — A Quiet Giant on the Edge of Breakout While everyone is chasing the inflated Big Tech bubble, a much quieter — and potentially far more explosive — opportunity is forming right now in the fintech and online lending space. That opportunity is FinVolution Group (FINV) — a Chinese and Southeast Asian fintech player that looks ready to break through its 2021 highs. Once that breakout happens, the move could be massive. 🔸 Fundamentals FinVolution has quietly turned a corner. Recent quarters have been consistently profitable — both revenue and EPS are growing. The most striking part? The forward P/E ratio is just 0.7 — yes, less than one. That’s an extraordinary valuation for a profitable fintech with expanding operations across multiple Asian markets. It’s a risky play, no doubt, but these are exactly the kind of setups that tend to drive portfolio growth over time: low valuation, improving financials, and clear technical breakout potential. 🔸 Technical Picture From a technical perspective, FINV is at the start of what looks like the third major wave of its long-term structure. Since 2021, the price has been consolidating sideways — but that phase seems to be ending now. Key resistance: $11 Current price: around $7 Breakout level: above $11 (with volume confirmation) First targets: $20 → $30 → $40 If the price breaks below $6, the bullish scenario pauses — it doesn’t collapse, but likely extends the sideways phase. That sets up a risk of roughly 10–15%, while the potential upside remains multiple times higher. The risk/reward profile here is exceptionally strong. 🔸 My Strategy I’m already positioned - entered near $7, with a stop-loss around $6. Once we approach $11, I plan to take partial profits and watch for a breakout confirmation. If we get a strong breakout above $11 with solid volume, that’s my next entry trigger. Then I’ll look to add on pullbacks, applying my call stacking strategy - building exposure gradually as the trend confirms and accelerates. 🚀 Summary FinVolution (FINV) shows a rare combination: ✅ Profitable growth ✅ Deep undervaluation ✅ Strong breakout setup It’s one of those asymmetric opportunities — where the downside is limited, but the upside could multiply several times over. If the $11 breakout confirms, this could easily become one of the most powerful fintech moves of the next few quarters. ⚡ Call to Action If you like this type of setup - low-risk, high-upside plays - tap 🚀 to support the idea, and drop a comment with tickers you’d like me to review next. (Full technical breakdown and strategy details are discussed in my latest videos — available via my profile.)
NYSE:FINVLong
by sdk-trading
Apple: New All-Time High as Low Is Adjusted Apple has recently seen a period of heightened volatility, marked by sharp gains and notable pullbacks. In response to the latest price action, we’ve made a slight adjustment to our wave count and revised the low for magenta wave (4). We’re now allowing for magenta wave (5) to break above the $260.10 resistance level, which would complete green wave . Our alternative scenario, which carries a 34% probability, still calls for a new corrective low in blue wave alt.(IV). In this case, Apple would have just finished beige wave alt.b slightly above $260.10 and would next decline in wave alt.c, falling below support at $212.94. Even so, the alternative corrective low would remain above the $168 level.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by MarketIntel
ORACALE (ORCL) Rally! Cycle 3 → $400, Eyes on Supercycle $6,000🌀 ORACLE (ORCL) – Elliott Wave Supercycle Analysis | Smart Money & Fibonacci Confluence 🔭 Macro Perspective Oracle’s long-term chart (NYSE: ORCL) showcases a powerful Supercycle (III) wave in motion — a multi-decade expansion phase fueled by institutional participation, structural growth, and technological innovation. The internal Cycle waves (1–5) are clearly defined, with current price action positioned deep within Cycle Wave (3) — the strongest segment of this major bullish leg. 🟢 Supercycle Wave (I) (1987 – 2000) Elliott Behavior: The first grand impulsive advance, representing Oracle’s rise during the early software and database revolution. Fibonacci Structure: Wave (3) extended toward the 2.618× of Wave (1), typical of an early institutional growth wave. SMC Dynamics: Breaks of structure (BoS) at each impulsive stage. Liquidity sweeps before rallies — consistent smart money accumulation patterns. Fundamentals: Explosive earnings growth through enterprise software adoption and global market expansion. 💥 Conclusion: The dot-com peak in 2000 completed Supercycle (I). 🔵 Supercycle Wave (II) (2000 – 2002) Nature: The sharp, emotion-driven retracement following the tech bubble. Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced into the 0.236 zone of (I), providing the long-term discount region for accumulation. SMC Characteristics: Liquidity grab beneath 1998–1999 structure. Long accumulation base confirming institutional re-entry. Fundamentals: Oracle streamlined operations and built the groundwork for enterprise-level solutions. 🧱 Bottom: Wave (II) ended around 2002 — the base of today’s decades-long uptrend. 🟣 Supercycle Wave (III) (2002 – 2030s, ongoing) This ongoing macro impulsive wave contains five internal Cycle Waves (1–5) . ⚪ Cycle Wave (1) (2002 – 2019) Elliott Context: A powerful, sustained impulsive leg lasting nearly two decades. Structure: Clean five-wave advance with strong extensions during 2010–2019. Fibonacci Note: The move achieved near the 1.618× extension relative to its starting point. SMC Insight: Consistent higher highs and higher lows throughout the period. BoS continuation patterns confirming institutional markup. Fundamentals: Expansion of Oracle’s business model — cloud transition, data analytics, and enterprise software dominance. 📈 End: Cycle (1) peaked near 2019 , completing the first internal impulsive leg of Supercycle (III). 🔵 Cycle Wave (2) (2019 – 2020) Nature: A sharp yet shallow correction that coincided with the global market decline (COVID crash). Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced around the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (1). SMC Dynamics: Liquidity sweep under 2018–2019 structure. Fast accumulation pattern — strong re-accumulation footprint. Fundamentals: Short-term market shock, but Oracle’s fundamentals remained intact and rebounded swiftly. 🧭 Conclusion: Cycle (2) ended in 2020, setting the foundation for the explosive ongoing Cycle (3) rally. 🟢 Cycle Wave (3) (2020 – ~2026, in progress) Elliott Context: The most powerful internal impulsive wave — currently unfolding. Target Zone: Projected to complete near $380–$400 , expected around late 2025 to early 2026 . Fibonacci Extension: The 2.618× extension of Wave (1) perfectly aligns near $400. SMC & Market Structure: Continuous BoS and HH–HL formations — clear institutional control. No macro distribution yet; structure remains intact. Liquidity inducements near highs suggest ongoing markup phase. Price Action: Aggressive impulses, shallow retracements, and orderly continuation patterns. Fundamentals: Rapid expansion in Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), AI-driven services, and recurring revenue models. Sustained EPS growth and improved margin performance support wave maturity. 🚀 Expectation: Completion near $400 will likely trigger a Cycle (4) corrective structure before the final impulsive push. 🟠 Cycle Wave (4) (Projected: 2026 – 2028) Elliott Behavior: A corrective phase — retracing part of the strong Cycle (3) run. Fibonacci Retracement: Expected correction into the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (3), roughly $200–$280. SMC Insight: Break of structure (BoS) near top zones to induce liquidity. Re-accumulation base forming after liquidity sweep below key supports. Market Psychology: Cooling from euphoria, consolidation, and rebalancing of valuations. Fundamentals: Period of stabilization after several years of aggressive expansion. 📉 Outlook: Likely forms the structural foundation for the next rally phase (Cycle 5). 🟢 Cycle Wave (5) (Projected: 2028 – early 2030s) Elliott Context: The final impulsive leg completing Supercycle (III). Target Zone: Fibonacci 3.618× extension (~$900–$950) of Cycle (1). SMC Structure: Final markup phase with strong BoS continuation patterns. Climax rallies as retail sentiment peaks. Price Action: Parabolic trend, thin retracements, and expanding volatility. Fundamentals: Oracle could cement its dominance in global data, AI, and enterprise infrastructure markets. 💎 Completion: Cycle (5) will mark the end of Supercycle (III), leading into the long-term corrective Supercycle (IV). 🔶 Supercycle Wave (IV) (Projected: 2030s – 2040s) Nature: Major macro correction after decades of expansion. Fibonacci Depth: Likely retraces into the 0.382–0.5 zone of (III). SMC Behavior: Distribution → liquidity sweep → re-accumulation. Market Context: Could align with macroeconomic tightening or sectoral rotation. 📊 Purpose: To reset valuations and build energy for the final Supercycle (V). 🟩 Supercycle Wave (V) (Projected: 2040s – 2050s) Elliott Context: The final impulsive wave of Oracle’s century-long trend. Fibonacci Target: 3.618× expansion (~$6,000). SMC Behavior: Final institutional markup followed by distribution and secular reversal. Fundamentals: Could coincide with Oracle’s role as a global AI–data infrastructure leader. 🚀 Legacy Wave: The culmination of decades of innovation and expansion. ⚙️ Macro Summary Accumulation (1980s–1990s) – Smart money foundation. Expansion (2000s–2020s) – Institutional markup phase. Distribution (2030s) – Macro correction and rotation. Re-accumulation (Post-2040s) – Long-term reset for future cycles. 🧠 Technical & Fundamental Alignment ✨ Elliott Structure: Clear impulsive (I–V) sequence with macro rhythm. ✨ Fibonacci Confluence: $400 (2.618× of Wave 1) & $900 (3.618× of Wave 1). ✨ SMC: Institutional control with clean BoS → reaccumulation → continuation. ✨ Price Action: Aggressive bullish order flow with no macro distribution yet. ✨ Fundamentals: Oracle’s AI + Cloud strategy drives sustainable growth. 🌍 Conclusion Oracle (ORCL) continues to trend within Supercycle (III) — the most powerful long-term wave. Cycle Wave (3): In progress, targeting $380–$400 by end of 2025 / early 2026. Cycle Wave (4): Anticipated retracement toward $200–$280 zone. Cycle Wave (5): Final impulsive run toward $900+ into the early 2030s. 📈 Macro Bias: Long-term bullish — institutional structure intact. 📊 Short-term Outlook: Momentum strong but nearing Cycle 3 completion; prepare for corrective rotation. 💬 Summary: Oracle’s price evolution beautifully mirrors its technological growth story — a near-perfect alignment of Elliott Wave symmetry , Smart Money structure , and fundamental strength . The completion of Cycle 3 near $400 will open the door to an ideal re-entry opportunity for the next macro leg higher. #ORCL 📈 #Oracle 💼 #ElliottWave 🌊 #WaveAnalysis 🔹 #Supercycle 🚀 #Fibonacci 📊 #SmartMoney 💎 #PriceAction 🕯️ #MarketStructure 🏗️ #LongTermBull 🟢 #StockAnalysis 💹 #TechnicalAnalysis ⚙️ #Investing 💰 #TradingViewIdeas 💡 💬 Respected traders and analysts! Your insights matter. Share your views, confirmations, or constructive criticism in the comments below. Let’s discuss ORCL’s structural evolution, Elliott Wave setup, and long-term Supercycle potential 🚀📈. — Team FIBCOS 💎
NYSE:ORCLLong
by fibcos
Bitcoin: Is the Market Reaching a Historical Turning Point?📅 Update: October 2025 💡 Format: Educational analysis — not financial advice Historical Context Looking back at Bitcoin’s (BTC) price history, a clear pattern emerges: roughly every four years, the market experiences a major correction following a strong bullish cycle. Key examples include: 2011 2013–2014 2018 2022 Each time, Bitcoin saw a drawdown of –75% to –93% from its previous highs. These deep retracements have historically marked the end of a growth phase and the beginning of a new accumulation cycle. Current Elliott Wave Structure According to Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin appears to have completed its third and fourth waves, while the fifth wave is currently unfolding. However, the recent price action suggests that this fifth wave might already be nearing its conclusion. The price remains within an upward channel, testing the trendline for the fourth time — a technical signal that often indicates weakening bullish momentum and a potential transition to a corrective phase. Main Scenario: Possible Trend Reversal For a confirmed shift in trend, Bitcoin would need to break below the channel’s lower boundary. A typical technical sequence would look like this: A breakdown below the trendline A retest of the broken level from below The beginning of a stronger downward move This process usually unfolds over months, not days — a slow structural change rather than a sudden reversal. Potential Downside Range Based on historical patterns, a post-peak correction could bring Bitcoin into the $40,000–$30,000 range. This is not a forecast, but rather an educational scenario grounded in the recurring market behavior seen in previous cycles. Conclusion and Community Discussion 📊 At this stage, Bitcoin’s overall structure remains bullish, but signs of momentum exhaustion are becoming more apparent. The key factor to watch is how price reacts to the main trendline — whether it holds as support or gives way to a deeper retracement. ❓Which scenario do you find more likely? Continued growth and new highs Or a corrective phase toward lower levels? 🗨 Share your thoughts and charts in the comments — let’s discuss it together. 🔔 Follow for more educational breakdowns, and suggest which tickers you’d like to see analyzed next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sdk-trading
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 61.8% Fibo of 4265.Dear colleagues, in the new forecast the idea remains the same - the upward momentum (12345) is not yet complete. At the moment I see the end of the formation of the corrective wave “4” at the level of 4000, as stated earlier, and the beginning of the upward movement in wave “5”. I do not want to set distant targets, because their achievement may take time, so let's start small - the nearest target is the resistance area at 4265 - the area beyond the 61.8% level of wave “4”. I think that this is the nearest target that we should expect. Fundamental context Earlier this week, gold experienced a sharp pull-back after its recent record highs. Nothing to panic about — it’s simply a technical correction: investors are taking profits after a rapid and extended rally. Key drivers like central bank buying and lower rate expectations remain intact, so the broader bullish story is still alive. In fact, this brief dip may offer a better entry point before the next leg up. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
3
Adobe: Entering the Fourth Wave — Smart Money Distribution PhaseAdobe’s stock is entering a critical structural phase — the completion of its third global impulse and the start of the fourth corrective wave. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, the price structure and fundamentals suggest that the most explosive growth period may already be behind us. 🧭 Long-Term Technical Context Looking back to the early 2000s, Adobe has moved through a textbook Elliott Wave structure. The first and second waves built the base, while the third wave delivered the explosive rally — from roughly $30 to $600, marking a 20x increase. Now, the fourth subwave of the third major wave appears to be forming — a phase typically characterized by sideways consolidation and distribution by institutional players. 🔺 Wave 4 Triangle Formation In many long-term wave structures, the fourth wave forms a triangle (ABCDE pattern) — a contracting structure where price oscillates between defined boundaries. We can already observe the emerging shape: Wave A and B are complete Wave C is in progress Wave D and E will likely complete the pattern before the final breakout Once the triangle ends, a final Wave 5 push could occur — potentially extending toward $700, or in an extended scenario, even $2000. 📊 Trading Range and Short-Term Strategy At this stage, smart money tends to distribute positions gradually. The price is oscillating within a broad corridor, providing opportunities for range-based trading: Buy zones: near the triangle lows (Wave A area around $350) Profit zones: near the triangle highs (Wave B area around $600) For swing traders, this range offers multiple short-term opportunities before the next major move begins. 💵 Fundamental Context Despite being in a late-wave structure, Adobe’s fundamentals remain strong. Share buybacks: The company continues to repurchase its own shares, supporting EPS growth. EPS trend: Rising steadily year over year. Revenue growth: Stable, around +10% YoY, with quarterly metrics showing +40% growth since Q1 2024. Forward P/E: Approximately 28, which, by Peter Lynch’s growth-to-PE logic, still appears reasonably valued. These metrics suggest that even in a market downturn, Adobe’s downside risk may be more limited compared to weaker tech peers. 🧮 Fundamental Summary ✅ Consistent buybacks supporting EPS ✅ Double-digit annual revenue growth ✅ Attractive valuation relative to growth metrics ✅ Strong defensive profile versus the broader tech sector There are no visible signs of fundamental weakness — only technical consolidation after years of exponential expansion. ⚠️ Alternative Scenario If the stock breaks below $270, the current wave structure may need adjustment. Such a move could imply a larger triangle or a flat correction, but the broader interpretation — that we’re inside a long-term Wave 4 — would remain valid. 📈 Market Outlook Adobe is transitioning from a high-momentum growth phase into a strategic accumulation and distribution phase. The stock is unlikely to replicate its earlier explosive rally, but it continues to offer structured trading opportunities inside a stable technical range. For long-term investors, the risk-reward remains balanced, supported by solid fundamentals. For traders, the triangle provides a clear framework: buy near lows, take profits near highs, and wait for the fifth wave breakout. 🧩 Summary Price structure suggests Wave 4 triangle formation Trading range between $350–$600 Fundamentals remain strong and defensive Forward P/E at 28 — reasonable given EPS growth Next major target: Wave 5 breakout toward $700–$2000 Adobe is no longer in its most explosive phase — but it’s far from weak. This is a mature consolidation period, not a decline story. For disciplined traders, the triangle may offer some of the cleanest swing setups in the tech sector. 📹 Full video analysis on my YouTube channel — check it out for detailed charts and Elliott Wave breakdowns!
NASDAQ:ADBE
by sdk-trading
2
XAUUSD 1H – EW Long SetupHi fellow traders, On the 1H XAUUSD chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a potential long setup. Price seems to have completed wave 4 and is reacting from the golden box area, suggesting that wave 5 may now start unfolding to the upside. The invalidation level at 4004.72 represents my expected end of the correction, although the setup remains valid even if price moves slightly lower. My Stop Loss is set at 3940.00, which would confirm structural failure if reached. The Take Profit is positioned at 4437.36, targeting the projected completion of wave 5. Good luck and trade safe!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by OGwavetrader
Netflix Down After Earning, But Its Hunting SupportNetflix is coming down after earnings and is currently trading more than 10% lower. Whenever we see such a sharp reversal, it’s important to zoom out and look at the broader trend. From the 2023 lows, there is still a very strong and impulsive recovery, so this could be just a temporary deeper corrective pause before the uptrend resumes. In Elliott Wave terms, it looks like a potential fourth wave retracement that could start to stabilize somewhere around the previous wave three high near the 1060 area, or possibly a bit lower, closer to the 1K level. This whole zone could be quite attractive for a rebound, especially since some of the gaps above the current price may still be filled — something that often happens when a stock remains in an uptrend. In my view, there’s still a good chance for a nice recovery and continuation higher in the weeks to come. Grega Highlights: Trend: Bullish (consolidation in wave four approaching support) Support: 1060, 1000 Resistance: 1260 Note: Stock can stabilize after wave 4 and try to fill the earnings gap at some point in the future.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by ew-forecast
1
Netflix: Key Support Zone in sightNetflix shares have continued to decline since our last update. We have now provided additional detail on the ongoing turquoise wave 4, which is subdivided into a magenta three-part structure. Within this structure, wave is expected to push price further down into the turquoise Target Zone, between $962.77 and $845.22. The low point of the larger wave 4 is anticipated within this range. Only after reaching this level should wave 5 drive price back above the $1,341 mark. As such, the turquoise Target Zone presents long entry opportunities, which can be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower boundary of the zone. However, if price rises directly above the aforementioned resistance at $1,341, our alternative scenario would be triggered, and we would initially need to prepare for a higher wave alt.3 top (probability: 30%).
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by MarketIntel
SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress🚀 SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress | Fibonacci Targets & Institutional Accumulation in Play 💼 📅 Timeframe : 3W (Macro Outlook) 📍 Current Price: 238.85 🎯 Wave 3 Target: ~1743 (2.618 Fibonacci Extension) 📊 Wave Structure & Elliott Theory SAP SE appears to be mid-way through a major Elliott Wave cycle , where: Wave 1 formed during the late 90s tech boom 📈 Wave 2 brought a deep correction post-2000 crash, respecting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement Wave 3 now underway, projected toward the 2.618 extension at ~1743 , suggesting a strong impulsive leg fueled by fundamentals and institutional accumulation Wave 4 and 5 to come, but we are early in the Wave 3 journey – historically the most powerful wave in terms of price growth and investor sentiment ⚡ 🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) ✅ Reaccumulation Range: After an extended period of sideways price action (2001–2019), the chart shows clear signs of Smart Money accumulation – long-term positioning by institutions. 📈 Break of Structure (BOS): Clean break above prior macro highs indicates the end of reaccumulation and the start of a markup phase . This aligns with the SMC concept of entering trades after BOS and mitigation of supply zones. 📦 Liquidity Grab: Previous dips served to collect liquidity before major impulsive moves – a classic institutional playbook. 📐 Fibonacci Confluence 🔹 0.5 Retracement from Wave 1 → Wave 2 provided a textbook correction 🔹 2.618 Extension from Wave 1–2 projects a long-term Wave 3 target of ~1743 , giving this move macro-level significance 🔹 No visible divergence yet – momentum is supporting continuation 🌀 🔎 Price Action Higher Highs & Higher Lows structure confirmed on multi-year view 📶 Strong bullish candles breaking historical resistances No major supply zones overhead on the macro chart until much higher levels – suggests room for exponential upside Pullbacks remain shallow, indicating strong buy-side pressure 🧾 Fundamental Outlook SAP SE is Europe’s largest software company and a global ERP leader. It’s undergoing a digital transformation into cloud-based SaaS, improving recurring revenue and margins. 💻☁️ Strong balance sheet Growing enterprise customer base Cloud revenue growing YoY Excellent positioning in AI and digital infrastructure themes going forward 🔮 Fundamentals support a multi-year bullish cycle , aligning perfectly with the current Wave 3 structure. 📌 Conclusion: SAP is entering a potentially parabolic phase as part of a long-term Wave 3 impulse, supported by: 📈 Elliott Wave alignment 🔁 Institutional reaccumulation (SMC) 🔍 Strong technical structure & price action 📐 Fibonacci confluence 💼 Solid fundamental trajectory As long as price holds above previous structure highs and no macroeconomic shock disrupts the tech cycle, SAP could be heading for an exponential breakout over the coming years. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing. 🛡️ #SAP #SAPSE #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #Fibonacci #SmartMoney #PriceAction #LongTermInvestment #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSetup #MacroView #FibonacciExtensions #StockMarket #TradingStrategy #InstitutionalTrading #Breakout #Reaccumulation #ChartPattern #Fundamentals
XETR:SAPLong
by fibcos
1
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.Gold is actively rising and I believe that before the impulse ends we should see the correction that many are expecting. As of today, I see the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the approaching start of the correction in wave “4”. It makes no sense to put any distant plans in the correction and I think that the support area of 4040 looks quite attractive. Fundamental context Gold continues its rally and recently broke new highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, global uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Central banks are still actively increasing their gold reserves — this structural demand adds support even if price pullbacks occur. Supply growth is modest — mining output is constrained, and recycling of gold is not enough, which limits the downward pressure on prices. Given this backdrop, the chance of a correction rises as momentum stretches — but the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for further upside once the correction completes. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Hellena_Trade
21
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story. EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164. This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup. 🧮 Fundamental Context Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically: Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase. EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half. Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend. Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening. The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation. Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality. 📉 Technical Structure Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure. We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion. Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline. Key levels to watch: 📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550 📍 Primary cluster: around $250 📍 Support zone: $150 – $200 The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200. That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg. ⚠️ Market Outlook While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply. Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals. And those fundamentals are pointing downward. 📊 Summary EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉 Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150 Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️ Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story. Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sdk-trading
The ratio of Silver / M2 reached an important resistanceThe ratio of Silver / M2 (x$1T) has reached an important resistance last Thursday. It also reached rare overbought condition (see the monthly RSI14 at the 78 resistance area). It is now due for a consolidation phase, support seen near 0.18 (implying a pullback of about 18% to $44 from the recent high of $54 on silver. This could take a few months (normally, but who knows) before exploding above the down trend line towards the 0.53 area. In summary, the rise of silver has just started.
TVC:SILVERLong
by waverity
AMD: Wave [iv] Low AMD shares have recently gained upward momentum as anticipated, confirming the low of wave in magenta. In light of this, we have added a new resistance level at $223.50 to the chart. The primary outlook is for the stock to continue completing the magenta five-wave sequence to the upside, thereby finishing the larger magenta wave (1). Afterward, wave (2) is expected to pull price back toward support at $164.53. Alternatively, AMD could see a direct sell-off, which would bring the alternative wave alt.(2) to an early conclusion. In this scenario, wave alt.(1) would already be complete, with a probability of 27%.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by MarketIntel
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): SHORT to the support area 1.15419.The situation is quite interesting. I would not like to recommend selling, but judging by the waves, the price should update the minimum of 1.15419 and complete the wave "C" of higher order near the level of 1.15000. Then the triangle (ABCDE) will continue to develop. And as much as I don't want to, I will insist that the price will continue the downward movement at least to the support area of 1.15419. Fundamental context The dollar continues to be under pressure - markets are increasingly laying expectations of a soon Fed rate cut due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. At the same time, the euro is receiving moderate support due to stability in the eurozone and investors' interest in alternative assets outside the dollar. In fact, this may lead to some sideways movement, which will be expressed in the triangle (ABCDE). Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
15
KIWI: Preapering To Complete Bearish Sequence? NZDUSD is in a very deep retracement, showing lower lows and lower swing highs from July, but if we look closely, there’s a lot of overlapping price action. In fact, over the last few weeks, it seems bears are losing some momentum, supported by RSI divergence, and we could even be forming an ending diagonal here in wave C of a potential three-wave drop from the July–summer highs. So despite this deep retracement, which is already more than 7%, there could still be an interesting rebound in the weeks ahead — ideally from around the 78.6% retracement of the April–July recovery. If we’re correct, we might already see some kind of rebound from a new intraday low this week. Grega
by ew-forecast
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.As I continued to watch oil I realized that the structure I built in the last forecast is still in place. I think we should expect a correction in wave “4” to the 59.3 area, then a continuation of the downward movement at least to the 54.00 support area. This will be the completion of the downward impulse. I do not exclude the probability of lengthening of wave “3” and in this case there will be no correction and the price will immediately reach the target. Fundamental context The oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand, raising the risk of a surplus. Forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate higher production growth while consumption slows. Rising inventories and a shift in the futures curve into contango suggest growing storage levels and weaker near-term demand. Under these conditions, downside pressure persists, keeping the probability of a further decline high. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
5
Microsoft: New Target Zone in PlaySince our last update, Microsoft shares have continued to decline, but there is still potential for an upside move. We do not yet consider the turquoise wave X to be complete. Once its high is established below the resistance at $562.17, we expect price to head lower toward the wave Y low. Our revised magenta long Target Zone is set between $477.87 and $451.84. The formation of this low should also mark the completion of magenta wave (4). Afterward, we anticipate the start of a new upward impulse within wave (5), which should push the stock above the $562.17 resistance and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, we assign a 36% probability to a scenario in which the recent high at $562.17 marked the end of beige wave alt.III . In this case, a decline below the support at $392.97 would be expected, forming the low of wave alt.IV .
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by MarketIntel