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Elliotwaveanalysis

Strategy: Downward Pressure Intensifies Strategy has continued to develop downward pressure as anticipated since our last update, bringing it closer to the targeted low of the turquoise wave 2. Our alternative—and now grayed-out—Target Zone has been breached to the downside, allowing us to remove the alternative scenario of a premature breakout to the upside. Investors who speculated on this alternative and entered within the alternative Target Zone with a stop 1% below the lower edge have likely been stopped out by now. For now, we are still allowing some room for turquoise wave 2 to move lower; however, it should find its bottom above the support at $102.40 to set the stage for wave 3 to advance further above the resistance at $674.18.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by HKCM_Global
1
USDJPY | Prices Starting to Exhaust and Potential to DeclineMarket Structure Overview The current price is around 154.58 – 154.60. Overall, USDJPY has remained in a major uptrend (bullish) since early October 2025. However, the current price pattern is showing signs of trend exhaustion in the upper area of ​​the channel—approaching the supply zone of 155.00 – 155.50. The RSI is starting to decline from the overbought area, while the momentum histogram also shows weak divergence (weakening upward momentum). ✅ Elliott Wave Structure (H4) From the swing structure visible on the chart, the Elliott Wave pattern can be identified as follows: ✅ Elliott Wave Count: - Wave (1): Initial rise from 149.00 → 151.50 - Wave (2): Correction to 150.40 - Wave (3): Strong impulse up to 154.00 - Wave (4): Mild correction to 152.00 – 152.20 - Wave (5): Final rally towards the 155.00 area (currently forming) This means the price is at the end of the impulse phase (Wave 5) — which is usually followed by a major correction (ABC Correction). ✅ Technical Patterns and Confirmation Technical Patterns Formed: - A rising wedge pattern (a tapering upward pattern) is clearly visible at the end of the trend. - A wedge like this often signals a distribution or reversal pattern at the end of an impulse wave (wave 5). - The upper area of ​​the wedge and the supply zone of 155.00 – 155.50 have the potential to become a strong reversal zone. 📊 Confirmation Indicators: - RSI: forming a bearish divergence — higher price high, lower RSI high. - Momentum Histogram: starting to shrink, indicating weakening bullish momentum. - This supports the possibility that Wave 5 is nearing completion. ✅ Projected Movement Direction 📉 Main Scenario (Reversal / Downward Correction) After Wave 5 completes around 155.00 – 155.50, the price has the potential to reverse downwards, forming a large ABC correction (the beginning of Wave A). Initial correction targets: - Target 1: 154.00 (minor support & lower wedge) - Target 2: 153.00 - Target 3 (extension): 151.50 – 152.00 If the price breaks through wedge support (BOS downwards), it confirms the Wave A correction has begun. 📈 Alternative Scenario (Continued Breakout) If the price breaks strongly above 155.50 with high volume, it indicates the Wave 5 extension is continuing. Continued targets: 156.00 – 156.50, before a major correction begins. However, this opportunity is smaller, due to numerous signs of exhaustion in the upper area. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Short-Term Position (Potential Reversal) - Sell Entry: 155.00 – 155.40 (supply zone & upper wedge area) - Stop Loss: 155.80 (above wedge + structure invalidation) - Take Profit 1: 154.00 - Take Profit 2: 153.00 🎯 RR ratio around 1:3 Entry confirmation: emergence of a bearish engulfing/minor downward BOS on H1–H4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Long-Term Position (Buy the Dip) If the Wave A–B–C correction completes below (around 151.50 – 152.00), then a new potential Wave (1) of the major uptrend (the next cycle) could begin. - Buy Entry: 151.50 – 152.00 (strong demand zone) - Stop Loss: 150.40 - Take Profit: 155.00 – 156.00 🎯 RR around 1:4 – long-term accumulation position
Short
by NouzTrader
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area 4219.Colleagues, I am not abandoning the idea that the upward movement is not over yet. It seems that the correction in wave “4” is very long and I think that it may continue to the support area 3807 and there is an important nuance - it is quite difficult to label all this movement as wave “C”, because it contradicts some rules of wave construction, but there are exceptions and I tend to interpret the downward movement in this way. There is one more option, which does not contradict the rules and it is a “shortened wave ”5" at 4377, and then (ABC) looks more adequate, but I will not display this option. In both cases, I expect a resumption of the move to at least the 4219 area. Fundamental context Against the current macro backdrop, gold remains well-supported: the U.S. dollar is under pressure, and bond yields continue to decline after recent weaker economic data. This environment sustains demand for safe-haven assets. Short-term pullbacks and profit-taking after record highs appear natural — overall interest in gold stays strong, particularly amid expectations of further Fed policy easing. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
10
S&P500: Slightly higherS&P 500 futures edged slightly higher in yesterday’s session. The index appears to remain within the upward trajectory of magenta wave (5), which is expected to continue pushing higher. Once this wave reaches its peak, the larger blue wave (III) should also complete. Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase in the form of magenta wave (A), which could put renewed pressure on the index. However, if prices reverse course and fall below the support level at 6,371, our alternative scenario will come into play. In that case, alternative wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, targeting a low within the corresponding alternative zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points (probability: 30%).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by HKCM_Global
1
Gold (XAUUSD) 4h: Expanding Flat Resistance at 50% FibCurrent price action lines up with the expanding flat (A-B-C) scenario, and we've just tagged the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the prior swing high. The B wave spike confirmed by structure now faces resistance right at this key level. RSI remains in overbought territory (above 76), giving extra weight to the idea of a local top forming. Key points: Structure: Expanding flat (A-B-C), with recent leg up overshooting wave A. Levels: Price currently at the 50% Fibonacci (4,194 zone), upper resistance. Next steps: Looking for signs of reversal—lower timeframe rejection, bearish pattern, or a strong close below 4,180 for confirmation. Targets: If reversal holds, initial C-leg targets sit at 3799.91 for equal leg. Still waiting for hard confirmation, but the context and confluence heavily favour a top and a possible sell setup brewing. #XAUUSD #Gold #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by EWaveInsights
$SPX: DIP BUYNG IS THE RULE FOR NOW The strategy of buying on dips has proven effective once again, underscoring the current strength of the market. The 10- and 20-day moving averages are no longer relevant as support or resistance levels; instead, their slopes indicate the short-term trend. We will focus on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which remains in a positive slope. The key moving average for maintaining the upward trend is the 50-day SMA. The S&P 500 has easily recovered above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and is just 73 points away from its all-time high; it appears quite feasible to set a new record. However, there is a slight concern regarding the technology sector, which seems to be carrying more weight in the market. If the end of the shutdown is indeed approaching, the uncertainty will likely conclude with the release of economic data. Therefore, given this display of market strength, a wait-and-see approach may develop, which could lead to sideways trading—a situation that could be quite frustrating.
TVC:SPX
by OLIV2020
USDJPY Diagonal— Watch 155-156 for a ReversalUSDJPY has been in recovery mode for some time, forming higher swing lows and retesting the highs following a rebound in US yields, as Powell didn’t fully convince markets about a December rate cut. The BOJ has also kept rates unchanged, so until they turn more hawkish, the pair could stay supported — unless a broader dollar selloff begins due to risk-on, which would help drive USDJPY lower across the board whiel US yields could stay sideways till next FED meeting. Looking at the wave structure from early October, price action over the last few weeks has become increasingly overlapping, which often signals an ending diagonal ; a powerful reversal pattern where bullish momentum starts to fade. This suggests that we may be approaching a very important bearish turn in the coming weeks. I’m watching the 155–156 region as key resistance; if the market fails to break and hold above the upper boundary of the diagonal and instead breaks below the lower trendline later on, that would confirm a potential bearish reversal. I’m also keeping an eye on the large gap from early October; gaps of that size rarely stay open for long in the spot market, so a move back to fill it remains a realistic scenario, but dont know when... Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
XRP: Target Zone in sightRipple’s XRP has seen a modest rebound recently, but this hasn’t altered our outlook. We continue to expect further declines as part of a blue five-wave move down into the turquoise Target Zone ($1.03–$0.38), which is suitable for long-side entries. Within this zone, we anticipate that the low of the larger wave B in turquoise will be established. From there, we expect wave C to rally above resistance at $4.09 and complete the larger wave (Y) in magenta. We still assign a 30% probability to the scenario in which the low of wave alt.B in turquoise has already been reached.
KRAKEN:XRPUSDShort
by HKCM_Global
2
Wave 4 Finishing – Preparing for the Final Wave 5 Impulse (EW)We are currently completing wave 4 — both in the subwave and sub-subwave count — and getting ready for the final impulsive wave 5. According to Elliott Wave rules, wave 4 cannot overlap with wave 1, which also defines our stop-loss level. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains valid. Wave 4 has retraced between the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci zone, perfectly matching the expected correction depth. Since wave 2 was extended in time, we expect a shorter and faster wave 4, often characterized by a quick wick and rejection before continuation. From the indicator side: RSI, Stoch, and MACD are all oversold and starting to curl up on multiple timeframes — 15m, 45m, and 144m. The B-leg of the correction was overbought, signaling exhaustion and confirming the upcoming C-leg completion. With that, we are in position for the start of wave 5, which should complete the macro wave 3. 🎯 Trade Setup: Entry: Current zone (0.382–0.5 retracement range) Stop-loss: Below wave 1 invalidation level Target: Extension of wave 5 from wave 3 to wave 4, We target the 2.618% Summary: Wave 4 is finishing, indicators align across timeframes, and all Elliott conditions are in place for a strong push into wave 5.
Long
by reasonableCoco75381
Hellena | GOLD (1H): SHORT to support area 3925.Colleagues, I believe that at the moment we see a rather complicated situation - the correction is not over yet and we may see a complicated correction. In most probability I see the completion of wave “B”, and the continuation of the downward movement to the support area of 3925. The “ABC” correction may be completed this week. In any case, I expect the decline to continue. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Hellena_Trade
12
Silver Correction Ending: Major Drop AheadSilver (XAG/USD) has completed a 5-wave decline, marking the end of Wave (A)/(1) near the 45.53 level. Since then, price has been retracing upward in a complex W–X–Y corrective structure, which appears to be forming the final leg of Wave (B)/(2). The rise is losing strength near the upper channel, hinting that bulls may soon exhaust. Once Wave (B)/(2) finishes, the next big move is expected to be a strong bearish Wave (C)/(3) decline targeting lower zones near or below 45. In simple terms: last leg of correction nearly done → next big drop ahead. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
by Money_Dictators
1