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Elliotwaveanalysis

Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 61.8% Fibo of 4265.Dear colleagues, in the new forecast the idea remains the same - the upward momentum (12345) is not yet complete. At the moment I see the end of the formation of the corrective wave “4” at the level of 4000, as stated earlier, and the beginning of the upward movement in wave “5”. I do not want to set distant targets, because their achievement may take time, so let's start small - the nearest target is the resistance area at 4265 - the area beyond the 61.8% level of wave “4”. I think that this is the nearest target that we should expect. Fundamental context Earlier this week, gold experienced a sharp pull-back after its recent record highs. Nothing to panic about — it’s simply a technical correction: investors are taking profits after a rapid and extended rally. Key drivers like central bank buying and lower rate expectations remain intact, so the broader bullish story is still alive. In fact, this brief dip may offer a better entry point before the next leg up. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
7
Netflix Down After Earning, But Its Hunting SupportNetflix is coming down after earnings and is currently trading more than 10% lower. Whenever we see such a sharp reversal, it’s important to zoom out and look at the broader trend. From the 2023 lows, there is still a very strong and impulsive recovery, so this could be just a temporary deeper corrective pause before the uptrend resumes. In Elliott Wave terms, it looks like a potential fourth wave retracement that could start to stabilize somewhere around the previous wave three high near the 1060 area, or possibly a bit lower, closer to the 1K level. This whole zone could be quite attractive for a rebound, especially since some of the gaps above the current price may still be filled — something that often happens when a stock remains in an uptrend. In my view, there’s still a good chance for a nice recovery and continuation higher in the weeks to come. Grega Highlights: Trend: Bullish (consolidation in wave four approaching support) Support: 1060, 1000 Resistance: 1260 Note: Stock can stabilize after wave 4 and try to fill the earnings gap at some point in the future.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by ew-forecast
1
Netflix: Key Support Zone in sightNetflix shares have continued to decline since our last update. We have now provided additional detail on the ongoing turquoise wave 4, which is subdivided into a magenta three-part structure. Within this structure, wave is expected to push price further down into the turquoise Target Zone, between $962.77 and $845.22. The low point of the larger wave 4 is anticipated within this range. Only after reaching this level should wave 5 drive price back above the $1,341 mark. As such, the turquoise Target Zone presents long entry opportunities, which can be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower boundary of the zone. However, if price rises directly above the aforementioned resistance at $1,341, our alternative scenario would be triggered, and we would initially need to prepare for a higher wave alt.3 top (probability: 30%).
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by MarketIntel
SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress🚀 SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress | Fibonacci Targets & Institutional Accumulation in Play 💼 📅 Timeframe : 3W (Macro Outlook) 📍 Current Price: 238.85 🎯 Wave 3 Target: ~1743 (2.618 Fibonacci Extension) 📊 Wave Structure & Elliott Theory SAP SE appears to be mid-way through a major Elliott Wave cycle , where: Wave 1 formed during the late 90s tech boom 📈 Wave 2 brought a deep correction post-2000 crash, respecting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement Wave 3 now underway, projected toward the 2.618 extension at ~1743 , suggesting a strong impulsive leg fueled by fundamentals and institutional accumulation Wave 4 and 5 to come, but we are early in the Wave 3 journey – historically the most powerful wave in terms of price growth and investor sentiment ⚡ 🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) ✅ Reaccumulation Range: After an extended period of sideways price action (2001–2019), the chart shows clear signs of Smart Money accumulation – long-term positioning by institutions. 📈 Break of Structure (BOS): Clean break above prior macro highs indicates the end of reaccumulation and the start of a markup phase . This aligns with the SMC concept of entering trades after BOS and mitigation of supply zones. 📦 Liquidity Grab: Previous dips served to collect liquidity before major impulsive moves – a classic institutional playbook. 📐 Fibonacci Confluence 🔹 0.5 Retracement from Wave 1 → Wave 2 provided a textbook correction 🔹 2.618 Extension from Wave 1–2 projects a long-term Wave 3 target of ~1743 , giving this move macro-level significance 🔹 No visible divergence yet – momentum is supporting continuation 🌀 🔎 Price Action Higher Highs & Higher Lows structure confirmed on multi-year view 📶 Strong bullish candles breaking historical resistances No major supply zones overhead on the macro chart until much higher levels – suggests room for exponential upside Pullbacks remain shallow, indicating strong buy-side pressure 🧾 Fundamental Outlook SAP SE is Europe’s largest software company and a global ERP leader. It’s undergoing a digital transformation into cloud-based SaaS, improving recurring revenue and margins. 💻☁️ Strong balance sheet Growing enterprise customer base Cloud revenue growing YoY Excellent positioning in AI and digital infrastructure themes going forward 🔮 Fundamentals support a multi-year bullish cycle , aligning perfectly with the current Wave 3 structure. 📌 Conclusion: SAP is entering a potentially parabolic phase as part of a long-term Wave 3 impulse, supported by: 📈 Elliott Wave alignment 🔁 Institutional reaccumulation (SMC) 🔍 Strong technical structure & price action 📐 Fibonacci confluence 💼 Solid fundamental trajectory As long as price holds above previous structure highs and no macroeconomic shock disrupts the tech cycle, SAP could be heading for an exponential breakout over the coming years. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing. 🛡️ #SAP #SAPSE #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #Fibonacci #SmartMoney #PriceAction #LongTermInvestment #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSetup #MacroView #FibonacciExtensions #StockMarket #TradingStrategy #InstitutionalTrading #Breakout #Reaccumulation #ChartPattern #Fundamentals
XETR:SAPLong
by fibcos
1
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.Gold is actively rising and I believe that before the impulse ends we should see the correction that many are expecting. As of today, I see the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the approaching start of the correction in wave “4”. It makes no sense to put any distant plans in the correction and I think that the support area of 4040 looks quite attractive. Fundamental context Gold continues its rally and recently broke new highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, global uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Central banks are still actively increasing their gold reserves — this structural demand adds support even if price pullbacks occur. Supply growth is modest — mining output is constrained, and recycling of gold is not enough, which limits the downward pressure on prices. Given this backdrop, the chance of a correction rises as momentum stretches — but the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for further upside once the correction completes. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Hellena_Trade
21
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story. EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164. This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup. 🧮 Fundamental Context Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically: Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase. EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half. Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend. Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening. The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation. Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality. 📉 Technical Structure Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure. We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion. Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline. Key levels to watch: 📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550 📍 Primary cluster: around $250 📍 Support zone: $150 – $200 The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200. That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg. ⚠️ Market Outlook While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply. Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals. And those fundamentals are pointing downward. 📊 Summary EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉 Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150 Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️ Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story. Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sdk-trading
The ratio of Silver / M2 reached an important resistanceThe ratio of Silver / M2 (x$1T) has reached an important resistance last Thursday. It also reached rare overbought condition (see the monthly RSI14 at the 78 resistance area). It is now due for a consolidation phase, support seen near 0.18 (implying a pullback of about 18% to $44 from the recent high of $54 on silver. This could take a few months (normally, but who knows) before exploding above the down trend line towards the 0.53 area. In summary, the rise of silver has just started.
TVC:SILVERLong
by waverity
AMD: Wave [iv] Low AMD shares have recently gained upward momentum as anticipated, confirming the low of wave in magenta. In light of this, we have added a new resistance level at $223.50 to the chart. The primary outlook is for the stock to continue completing the magenta five-wave sequence to the upside, thereby finishing the larger magenta wave (1). Afterward, wave (2) is expected to pull price back toward support at $164.53. Alternatively, AMD could see a direct sell-off, which would bring the alternative wave alt.(2) to an early conclusion. In this scenario, wave alt.(1) would already be complete, with a probability of 27%.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by MarketIntel
KIWI: Preapering To Complete Bearish Sequence? NZDUSD is in a very deep retracement, showing lower lows and lower swing highs from July, but if we look closely, there’s a lot of overlapping price action. In fact, over the last few weeks, it seems bears are losing some momentum, supported by RSI divergence, and we could even be forming an ending diagonal here in wave C of a potential three-wave drop from the July–summer highs. So despite this deep retracement, which is already more than 7%, there could still be an interesting rebound in the weeks ahead — ideally from around the 78.6% retracement of the April–July recovery. If we’re correct, we might already see some kind of rebound from a new intraday low this week. Grega
by ew-forecast
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.As I continued to watch oil I realized that the structure I built in the last forecast is still in place. I think we should expect a correction in wave “4” to the 59.3 area, then a continuation of the downward movement at least to the 54.00 support area. This will be the completion of the downward impulse. I do not exclude the probability of lengthening of wave “3” and in this case there will be no correction and the price will immediately reach the target. Fundamental context The oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand, raising the risk of a surplus. Forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate higher production growth while consumption slows. Rising inventories and a shift in the futures curve into contango suggest growing storage levels and weaker near-term demand. Under these conditions, downside pressure persists, keeping the probability of a further decline high. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
7
Microsoft: New Target Zone in PlaySince our last update, Microsoft shares have continued to decline, but there is still potential for an upside move. We do not yet consider the turquoise wave X to be complete. Once its high is established below the resistance at $562.17, we expect price to head lower toward the wave Y low. Our revised magenta long Target Zone is set between $477.87 and $451.84. The formation of this low should also mark the completion of magenta wave (4). Afterward, we anticipate the start of a new upward impulse within wave (5), which should push the stock above the $562.17 resistance and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, we assign a 36% probability to a scenario in which the recent high at $562.17 marked the end of beige wave alt.III . In this case, a decline below the support at $392.97 would be expected, forming the low of wave alt.IV .
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by MarketIntel
Grand Silver SupercycleI present the Grand Silver Supercycle. Silver has followed Elliott Wave Theory nicely through the years. The price hit a century low during The Great Depression, beginning what I believe to be the first wave of a supercycle. There is a clear five wave pattern up from this low, peaking in 1980. This is supercycle wave 1. Then, we see a five wave corrective pattern down, bottoming out in the early 90s. Alternatively, a three wave ABC pattern could be drawn. This is where supercycle wave 3 begins. Wave 3 is typically much more prominent than wave 1 in Elliott Wave Theory. For this reason, it makes sense that the next five wave pattern ending in 2011 is only the first subwave of supercycle wave 3. The second subwave corrected to the 2020 low, and we are currently on the third subwave. Within this subwave, we could either be starting a third wave (as shown in the chart) or still be on the corrective second wave. I believe the former is much more likely due to fundamentals. Price targets within the current subwave were estimated as follows: wave 3 length = 1.618 X wave 1 wave 3 target = $48 wave 4 length = 38.2% retracement of wave 3 wave 5 length = 1.618 X (wave 3 end - wave 1 start) I'm more confident on wave 3 ending near $48 than I am of wave 5 ending near $95. There is strong resistance at $50, which coincides with the Elliott target zone. Wave 5 length can vary significantly. For silver at least, fifth waves have traditionally been long ones. Fundamentals Elliott Wave Theory is only a tool. It needs to be backed up by fundamentals when forecasting on long time frames. Silver is undervalued due to many years of supply outstripping demand, creating cheap prices. That is in the early stages of changing as now demand outpaces supply. Global silver demand was expected to hit an all time high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022 (www.silverinstitute.org). This is largely due to increases in demand in both industry (Green Revolution) and personal investment (stackers hedging against inflation). Silver reserves currently stand at 530,000 metric tons (www.statista.com). The current demand is 38,000 metric tons per year. A simple calculation shows existing reserves could be depleted in 14 years. However, this calculation doesn't take into account new discoveries and recycling, which have so far kept pace with demand. Estimates of time to depletion of reserves vary wildly from a couple decades to a few centuries. At the moment, the prime driver of price (in addition to inflation) will be the deficit, not depletion of reserves. Inflation is a totally different animal that is much harder to forecast long term due to its close relationship to government and Federal Reserve policy. It is more likely that when presented the choice, our leaders choose high inflation over debt default and depression. How this all is going to play out is anyone's guess. It seems for now our leaders are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If hyperinflation hits, the silver price will reach extraordinary heights.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Cryptogold14
1
Bitcoin 4H Elliott Wave & Fibonacci ZonesThis 4-hour Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart zooms in on the late-stage corrective action following a major Elliott Wave impulse completion. The complex WXY corrective structure appears to be near resolution, approaching key Fibonacci retracement zones from the prior wave sequence. Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Confluence: The chart traces the final decline wave (Y) reaching just above the 23.6% retracement at $106,563, a critical technical confluence area where sellers have gained momentum. If support fails here, the next focus shifts downward toward the 38.2% ($95,604) and deeper retracement levels for potential stabilization. Momentum & Indicators: RSI is nearing oversold levels on this timeframe, signaling that momentum may be waning and a reversal could be imminent. MACD and volume show signs of diminishing selling pressure, consistent with a corrective leg approaching exhaustion. Trading Outlook: This 4-hour timeframe highlights a tightening short-term balance between sellers and prospective buyers, setting the stage for either a continued drop to stronger support zones or a base formation preceding a renewed bullish impulse. Traders should closely monitor price reactions at Fibonacci support, as these areas historically mark accumulation zones and inflection points in Bitcoin’s macro cycles. This analysis serves as an update to our prior weekly outlook, zooming in to actionable price levels for tactical entry or risk management in anticipation of Bitcoin’s next significant directional move.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by NoHussle
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56-57.Colleagues, price is actively moving in a downward direction and I believe the move is not yet complete. Earlier I saw this move as a big correction, but now the structure is more of an impulsive one. This means that the price is moving in the wave “3” of the higher order (Red), which should be completed soon. For this to happen, the price needs to complete the correction in the wave “4” of medium order and then update the low, reaching the support area of 56-57. The extension of wave “3” is possible - then the price will reach the target without correction. Fundamental context Global oil inventories are forecast to rise through 2025, putting downward pressure on prices despite efforts by some producers to restrain output. OPEC+ has been increasing production again, which adds to the supply burden. Meanwhile, demand forecasts have been trimmed amid softer economic growth indicators in key consuming regions. Major banks have lowered long-term price expectations for crude — the balance is tilting toward a more bearish outlook. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
9
What Should You Expect From MMC?MMC is nearing the end of a recent price drop. The price is currently in its final downward phase, expected to bottom out around $184 to $186. Targets are 219, 234 & 245. Bulls can take control at wave B point(Resistance - $207). If the price successfully holds above this $184–$186 support, the analysis predicts it will trigger a new, major upward trend. To officially confirm that the correction is over and a strong bullish trend has begun, the stock needs to break out above the $207 to $210 level. Once that breakout happens, the price is expected to rise sharply, potentially hitting the previous high of $248. However, if the price drops below $184, this positive outlook will be invalidated, and the stock is expected to continue its downward correction. Stay Tuned! Thank you:) @Money_Dictators
NYSE:MMC
by Money_Dictators
MSTR: Trend ContinuesSince our last update, MSTR extended its sell-off. We still expect the low of this wave to form above the support level at $153.49. Once wave 2 is complete, we anticipate a strong wave 3 rally pushing above resistance at $674.18. Our alternative scenario assumes a different wave count: in this case, price may currently be developing the magenta wave alt. to the upside (probability: 30%). This count would be confirmed by a direct move above resistance at $430.50.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by MarketIntel
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.16827.Colleagues, the recent continuation of the downtrend has made me reevaluate my wave analysis a bit. If everything is correct, we are now witnessing a correction - triangle (ABCDE). In this case, wave “C” should not update the minimum of wave “A”. This means that I expect the upward movement to start either from the current values or after the correction is completed around 1.14876. Then I expect the beginning of the upward movement at least to the resistance area of 1.16827 - the middle line of the triangle. Fundamental context The U.S. dollar is showing signs of weakness — recent labor data came out softer than expected, and markets continue to price in further Fed rate cuts. This reduces demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the ECB is likely to keep its current policy unchanged, as there’s limited room for additional easing. That gives the euro a slight fundamental advantage. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
9
SPX Bullish Trend / Elliot analysisOur analysis of this index suggests that we are currently in the development of a Wave 4 (W4) within the last bullish substructure of the macro fifth wave, where, in the long term, we could potentially see the end of the trend between the 7100 and 7600 levels. At the moment, the price appears to be moving within the final substructure, which seems about to begin a Wave 4 (W4) correction. 💡 This is just my opinion — always remember to do your own analysis!
SP:SPXLong
by AsernaTK
USDJPY- Do Not Ignore The Gaps And US Yields USDJPY has seen a nice recovery in the last few weeks, but prices are coming out of a previous triangle formation in wave B, meaning the upside could be limited within wave C. Especialyl fi we also conider that recovery from 2025 lows is coming into important 61-78.6% Fib area, where recently bulls slowe down a bit. We are already seeing some reversal, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some new leg down in xxx/JPY pairs too. Also keep in mind there are still some big unfilled gaps, and we can also see one at 149.20 on USDJPY, which could act as a magnet zone in the weeks ahead. Its important to add at US yields are coming down, as investors moves into treasuries after recent stocks crash, and this can keep JPY supported. GH
Short
by ew-forecast